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  • “On course for a better world” – Kickoff seminar Danish Shipowners’ Association

    9 February 2012, Copenhagen

    Maritime transport, sustainable development and

    climate change: some issues for consideration

    Dr. Regina Asariotis

    United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

  • 2

    Shipping is the lifeblood of world trade

    Source: Simon Bennett, ICS, presentation at UNCTAD Ad Hoc Expert Meeting 2011

  • 3

    Maritime Transport: an engine for development

    • Over 80% of the volume of world merchandise trade (and 70% by value) is carried by sea

    Developing countries traditional exports: often low value/high volume raw products; increasingly also manufactured goods (Asia).

    • Maritime transport provides access to global markets: crucial for all countries - developed and developing - including those that are landlocked

    Key factors for developing countries: connectivity, transport costs

    • Shipping and ports are key-nodes in global supply-chains and therefore vital for global trade

    • Seaborne trade is a derived demand – reflecting developments in global economy and merchandise trade

    • Maritime transport faces various emerging challenges ... including those related to energy and climate change

  • 4

    I. Economic growth and merchandise trade - shipping and

    seaborne trade: some recent trends

    II. Emerging challenges and some issues to monitor

    III. Climate change: implications for maritime transport

    IV. Relevant recent work by UNCTAD

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    World Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies

    World GDP Growth 2007-2013 (Quarter over Quarter, annualised)

    Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, January 2012

  • Commodity Prices: Continued Volatility (2007-2011)

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    Food Industrial Materials Energy

    Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, January 2012

  • World export volumes of goods, Jan 2006-Aug 2011

    Source: UN/DESA World Economic Situation and Prospects, 2012. Based on CBP Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy

    • Note the collapse in world merchandise export volumes in 2009 and the recovery in 2010

    • Emerging economies (green line) are driving the world recovery in trade (grey line);

    developed countries (red line) are lagging behind, recovering at a much slower rate

  • Economic growth and merchandise trade: Key Points

     Rapid and strong recovery in world economic output and trade (both merchandise and services) in 2010. However, recovery is fragile and its sustainability threatened

     Data indicate that world economy is on the brink of another major downturn: growth in output and merchandise trade has already slowed considerably during 2011 and is expected to slow down further in 2012 and 2013

     Economic woes in many developed economies a major factor in the global slowdown. Failure of policymakers to address jobs crisis and prevent escalation of sovereign debt distress and financial sector fragility would send global economy into another recession.

     Developing countries and economies in transition expected to continue to stoke engine of world economy, but growth in 2012-2013 expected well below 2010 and 2011. Growth in China and India expected to remain robust.

     Commodity prices have increased. They remain highly volatile.

  • Growth in container, tanker and major dry bulks volumes,

    1990-2011 (indices, 1990=100)

    Container

    Major dry bulks

    Tanker

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    1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

    Source: Review of Maritime Transport 2011. Based on Review of Maritime Transport, various issues;

    and on Clarkson Research Services, Shipping Review and Outlook, Spring 2011.

  • Global Container Trade, 1990-2011 (TEUs and annual % change)

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    1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

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    Million TEU (Left) Percentage Change (Right)

    Source: Review of Maritime Transport 2011. Based on Drewry Shipping Consultants, Container Market Review and Forecast

    2008/09; and Clarkson Research Services, Container Intelligence Monthly, May 2011.

    In 2010 container trade volumes experienced an unexpected robust recovery fuelled by a

    surge in demand across nearly all trade lanes. Global container trade volumes bounced back

    at 12.9 per cent over 2009, among the strongest growth rates in the history of containerization

  • World fleet by vessel type (million dwt, 1 January 2011)

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    Other 31 45 49 58 75 49 92 96

    Container 11 20 26 44 64 98 169 184

    General cargo 116 106 103 104 101 92 108 109

    Dry bulk 186 232 235 262 276 321 457 532

    Oil tanker 339 261 246 268 282 336 450 475

    1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011

    Source: UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2011. Compiled by the UNCTAD secretariat on the basis of data supplied by IHS Fairplay.

    (Seagoing propelled merchant ships of 100 gross tons and above).

    Note: By end 2010, the world order book for new ships had been reduced by about 28 per cent

    compared to its pre- 2008 crisis peak. Reduction amounted to 45 % for container ships, 34 % for

    tankers, and 18 % for dry bulk carriers.

  • World seaborne trade by country group, 2010 (% share in tonnage)

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    Loaded 34 60 6

    Unloaded 43 56 1

    Developed economies Developing economies Transition economies

    Source: UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2011.

    Developing countries continue to account for the main loading and unloading. Dominance of large

    emerging DC; concentration of resources/raw materials, which make up the bulk of seaborne trade;

    increasingly also manufactured cargo

    Asia is by far the most important loading and unloading region (40 % of total goods loaded/ 55% of

    total goods unloaded)

  • Involvement of DCs in Supply of Maritime Transport Services

    Maritime Sector/Activity Number of

    developing

    countries in

    the top 10

    Market share of

    developing

    countries in

    the top 10, %

    Ship building (dwt) 6 76.4

    Ship scrapping (dwt) 5 99.0

    Insurance services: P&I (dwt) 2 2.4

    Ship financing ($) 1 8.7

    Ship classification (dwt) 2 10.6

    Ship owning (dwt) 4 26.1

    Ship registration (dwt) 6 53.2

    Port operation: container terminals (TEU) 5 67.4

    Ship operation:container ships (TEU) 5 41.5

    Ratings (Head count) 8 89.5

    Officers (Head count) 6 75.4 Source: UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2011.

    • Developing countries are expanding their participation in a range of different maritime bus