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![Page 1: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Marine Transportation of Energy
Marine Transportation System Capacity
Mare ForumHouston Nov. 18-19 2002
Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping IssuesPeter M. Swift
![Page 2: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The world needs tankers
As long as the world uses oilAs long as the world uses oil • World oil consumption 3,590 mptaWorld oil consumption 3,590 mpta
• 60 % t60 % transported by sea = ransported by sea = 2,0152,015 mtpa mtpa
• + 103 + 103 mtpamtpa chemicals chemicals
![Page 3: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Freight rates and oil price $/bbl
0
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00
Nominal Arabian Light Deflated Arabian Light Nominal freight rates Deflated freight rates
Source: INTERTANKO, IEA
10
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Tonnes spilt Tonnes spilt per billion tonne-mile transportedper billion tonne-mile transported
0
10
20
30
40
50
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01
![Page 5: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
US crude oil production and net crude oil imports1983-2003 (est.)
Source: EIA
23456789
10Ja
n-83
Jan-
85
Jan-
87
Jan-
89
Jan-
91
Jan-
93
Jan-
95
Jan-
97
Jan-
99
Jan-
01
Jan-
03
Mbd
US crude oil production
US net crude oil imports
Linear (US net crude oilimports)Linear (US crude oilproduction)
U
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Oil consumption in selected Asian countries
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02
Mbd
China India Thailand Korea Taiwan
![Page 7: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
OPEC and non-OPEC oil production1971-2002
Source: IEA
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50M
bd
Non-OPECOPEC
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Major world crude oil exporters - Mbd
Source: OPEC, PIW, IEA, Norwegian Oil Directorate
Crude oil exports - world's largest exporters
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001est.
2002proj.
Mbd
SaudiArabiaFSU
Norway
Iran
UAE
Nigeria
Venezuela
UK
Mexico
Kuwait
![Page 9: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Crude oil – seaborne trade indicies1973=100
Source: Fearnleys
40
60
80
100
120
Tonne-miles
Tonnes
Miles
![Page 10: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Oil products – seaborne trade indicies 1973=100
Source: Fearnleys
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Miles
Tonnes
Tonne-miles
![Page 11: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Tanker & combined carrier fleet by year of build
0
2550
75
100
125150
175
200
225
250275
<196
819
7019
7219
7419
7619
7819
8019
8219
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
9419
9619
9820
0020
0220
04+
Num
ber o
f tan
kers
U/VLCCsSuezmaxAframaxPanamax10'-60' dwt
Fordelivery
![Page 12: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Tanker & combined carrier fleet by year of build
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
<196
819
7019
7219
7419
7619
7819
8019
8219
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
9419
9619
9820
0020
0220
04+
Dw
t m
illio
ns
U/VLCCsSuezmaxAframaxPanamax10'-60' dwt
Fordelivery
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Tanker fleet double-hull development
Source: INTERTANKO
622
5175 81
9478
4925 19
0
20
40
60
80
100
1991 1997 End 02 End 07 End 10
SH share (%)
DH share (%)
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Double hull ships are great
…but like the life rafts of a Boeing 747, it is a device we should do all in our power to
avoid testing.
![Page 15: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
World fleet and orderbook - million dwt
0 100 200 300
Ferry-HSReefer
DC-generalDC - multi-Ferry-24hs
Ferry-dayRoro-cargo
ContainerRoro-car
BulkerCruiseCombi
Chem. TankProd tanker
LPGCrude
LNG
FleetOn order
22%
21% 24%
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World Shipbuilding Capacity (mCGT)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 2005
OthersPolandChinaEUJapanKorea
Source :KSA
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World Shipbuilding Capacity (mCGT)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 2005
Others
Poland
China
EU
Japan
Korea
Completions
Completions peak year 2001
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Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues
Demand for marine transportation Supply of marine transportation Shipping standards Environmental concerns Security issues
![Page 19: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping IssuesDemand for Marine Transportation
Oil dependence & Global economic health
Oil sources – long haul vs. short haul Alternative energy sources Pipelines
![Page 20: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping IssuesSupply of Marine Transportation
Fair return on investment
AGEISMArbitrary but flawed age limitations- legislation or charterers- challenge to principle of grandfathering
![Page 21: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping IssuesShipping Standards – The Threats
Poor freight rates Weak links in the chain of responsibility Competition between builders and
between classification societies Ineffective self-regulation Inadequate feedback mechanisms
![Page 22: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
QUALITY STANDARDS -
THE VICIOUS CIRCLE
STANDARDSLOWERED
ACCIDENTS INCREASE
IMPOSITION OF NEW
REGULATIONS
INVESTMENT DISCOURAGED
??
![Page 23: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping IssuesEnvironmental Concerns
Society’s ever increasing expectations – effectively zero tolerance
Bunker fuel requirements
Oil movements in extra sensitive areas
![Page 24: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Some of the more sensitive areas
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Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping IssuesSecurity Issues
Limburg incident
Security at loading and discharge ports
Critical passages
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Critical Oil Movements Security Concerns
Straits of Hormuz 15.5 mbd (14 mbd crude)Malacca Straits 10 -12 mbdRed Sea 3.3 mbdSumed pipeline 2.2 mbdBosporous/Turkish Straits 1.6 up to 2.3 mbdDruzba / ”Friendship” pipeline 1.2 mbdCeyhan pipeline 1.1 mbdSuez canal0.9 mbdPanama canal and pipeline 0.5 mbd
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The world needs tankers
- the world expects tankers to be safe !
![Page 28: Marine Transportation of Energy Marine Transportation System Capacity Mare Forum Houston Nov. 18-19 2002 Bulk Liquid Ocean Shipping Issues Peter M. Swift.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022012914/5a4d1b227f8b9ab059995b13/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Thank you
www.intertanko.com