Marine Recreational Information Program Update

April 13, 2011

Overview

1. 5 Things to know about the National Saltwater Angler Registry

2. NOAA hosts Data Timeliness Workshop

3. 2011 estimates debut new methodology

Angler Registry

5 Things to Know

• 25 of 29 coastal states and territories exempt

• Changes in New York, New Jersey, Maine

• Over 700,000 registered anglers

• $15 registration fee in effect Jan 1, 2011

• Pilot testing dual-frame phone and mail surveys to determine effort

• March 15-16 in St. Petersburg, FL

• Responding to stakeholder concerns about timeliness of data

• Discussed scientific and management strategies for improving timeliness and meeting ACL/AM requirements

Data Timeliness Workshop

Check out www.CountMyFish.noaa.gov for a video blog, list of participants, a workshop summary, and copies of presentations.

Data Timeliness Workshop

New Estimation Methodology

The potential for bias was the NRC’s chief concern about

MRFSS

potential for bias is the result of unaccounted for factors or untested assumptions

Current MRFSS Design

MRFSS phone and in-person survey designs have potential for bias.

Some examples:

• Fishing trips returning at times of day not covered by shore-side surveys (eg. nighttime or off-peak daytime) may catch more or less than those covered.

• Survey non-respondents may have different fishing activity or success rates than respondents.

• On-site intercept survey data not weighted to reflect complex, probability-based sampling designs.

The New Way: What’s Different

Use selection probabilities to weight data– Assigned site-day probabilities are known– “Alternate site” probabilities can be estimated

Take multi-stage cluster sampling design into account– Use available data on cluster sizes at each stage– Peak activity period counts must be expanded to estimate

total counts for each sampled site/day

Eliminate opportunistic sampling of fishing trips in other modes

Complementary Survey Design

• North Carolina Pilot Project– Revised sampling frame– Assigned to specific sites and clusters– Assigned order and length of time– Assigned specific day parts– Sample at night

Video created in partnership with North Carolina Division of Marine Fisheries

available at www.CountMyFish.noaa.gov

Improved Sampling Design for Intercept Survey

Implementing the New Estimation Design1. Method adopted by NOAA as best available science2. Briefing Observer Team and coordinating with internal

staff3. Applying new methods to 2011 data4. Re-estimating historical data in Atlantic and Gulf

Coasts and Puerto Rico back to 2003

What’s Happening Now

• Final recreational estimates for 2010 and preliminary Wave 1 estimates for 2011available after mid-June.

• Catch estimates for the years 2003 to 2009 will be recalculated using the new estimation method, and will be updated at the same time as the final 2010 and 2011 Wave 1 estimates.

What You Can Expect

• Talking Points• Project Updates• Implementation Plan• Others…

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