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Maria João Frada - umr-cnrm.fr · PDF file14 July 2013: An event over Portugal...
Transcript of Maria João Frada - umr-cnrm.fr · PDF file14 July 2013: An event over Portugal...
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14 July 2013: An event over Portugal Operational analyses.
Maria João Frada
2nd Aladin forecasters meeting, 21-23- October 2015,
Lisbon, Portugal
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Nelas(lat:40.7º;long-7.8º)Viseu district(~25km
NW)
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ECMWF analysis (00 UTC RUN 14th July).
Arome contribution (00UTC RUN 14th July).
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Operational Methodology Analysis:
ECMWF Downscale TOP/DOWN
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More time on smaller scales
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Wind and isotachs>60kt 300hPa
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Geop. and Temp. 500hPa
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Geop. and Temp. 850hPa
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Vorticity advection at 300hPa
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Vorticity advection at 500hPa
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MSL Pressure
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TetaSW 850hPa, and MSL Pressure
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TPW (mm)
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MUCAPE and MUCIN (J/Kg)
300<CAPE<1600100<CIN<900
300<CAPE<1600100<CIN<900
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MUCAPE and MUCIN (J/Kg)
300<CAPE<1600100<CIN<900
100<CAPE<1300100<CIN<900
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CAPE overlap with CIN over Northern and Central parts
of Portugal.
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Large scale main forcing ?
- Barotropic trough associated with a long wave between Atlantic and ocidental
Mediterranean; Positive vorticity advection
-DVA between 300 hPa and 500 hPa.
- Decreasing thickness around 500hPa.
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Omega equation
A B C D
A – proportional a -ω.
B - DVA.
C – Laplacian of thickness advection, i.e, mean temperature advection
D- Laplacian of diabatic heating.
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Problems of using omega equation:
- ω is purely dinamic.- B and C terms, partly
cancel. - Introduction of noise,
errors. - But: it works quite well operationally.
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Vector Q
A B C D
A – proportional -ω.
B – Divergence of Q vector.
C – Advection of planetary vorticity by the thermal wind.
D – Laplacian of diabatic heating.
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Vector Q
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Advantages of using Q vector:
- ω as dinamic and thermodynamic components.
- No cancelations between terms.
- But: I don`t use it quite often operationally; I`m starting to do
it.
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Mesoscale/local scale forcing ?
- Baroclinic zone associated with sea breeze front; Strong horizontal gradients of
temp. and hum. at surface and BL. -Low level vertical transport of
enthalpy, imposed by diferential heating on BL.
-Diferential topography in the area; Caramulo mountain(1071m) W of Nelas.
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Not less important
In general: weak winds; small air advections.
Small contribution of windshear for the hodograph areas.
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First: What, and Why? - Showers (10 to 20mm/h) and thunderstorms; maybe wind gusts and decreasing temp
associated with downdrafts in unicellular deep convection; Precipitation warning issued
Second: Where, and Why?- Over interior N and C parts
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What would we expect to hapen?
- LCL heigths - LFC heigths
- Deep convection
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Viseu tephigram valid 14 12UTC
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Viseu tephigram valid 14 15UTC
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-Almost barotropic atmosfere
-Weak winds- Almost no windshear
-Most common form of convection:Single cells
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Precipitation 3hrs(mm)
No warnings issued
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Arome contribution.
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Precipitation AROME 3hrs
Maybe warnings
issued
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Viseu tephigram valid 14 12UTC
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Viseu tephigram valid 14 15UTC
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2 mTemperature
sextasexta--feira, 9 de feira, 9 de Outubro de 2015Outubro de 2015Raiden, Lisbon, 18 july 2013Raiden, Lisbon, 18 july 2013 77
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Viseu tephigram valid 14 12UTC
RaidenRaiden,, LisbonLisbon, 18, 18 julyjuly 20132013
SextaSexta--feira, 19 de feira, 19 de J ulho de 2013J ulho de 2013
33
Forecasting Convection
“Viseu”
12H forecast
14/07/2013at 12UTC
ECMWF ALADIN
AROME CAPE (J /Kg) LI (ºC)
EC: 337 -3.2
AL: 1781 -6.0
AR: 1822 -6.1
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Viseu tephigram valid 14 15UTC
RaidenRaiden,, LisbonLisbon, 18, 18 julyjuly 20132013
SextaSexta--feira, 19 de feira, 19 de J ulho de 2013J ulho de 2013
44
Forecasting Convection
“Viseu”
15H forecast
14/07/2013at 15UTC
ECMWF ALADIN
AROME “Nelas”station
2h Precipitation17 mm (15-17UTC)
1h Temperature drop
15 C (15-16UTC)
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Observations
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IR 10.8 at 12UTC
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WV 6.2 at 15UTC
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SANDWICH HRV 10.8
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SANDWICH HRV 10.8
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T-14,6ºC
P(15:40/16:40)=17,1mm
P(15:40/16:10)= 15,7mm
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Nelas observations
SW 18km/hN 32Km/h
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sextasexta--feira, 9 de feira, 9 de Outubro de 2015Outubro de 2015
Raiden, Lisbon, 18 july 2013Raiden, Lisbon, 18 july 2013 55
Descargas elétricas
Messir-Vision system
14/07/2013, 16UTC
www.IPMA.pt
14/07/2013, 00-15UTC
Meteorage system
14/07/2013, 00-15UTC
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What I would like to have from ECMWF
Most unstable level on tephigramInteractive tephigrams and hodographs on
each map point0-6km; 0-3km; 0-1km windshear and
MLCAPE(30hPa AGL) and MUCAPE/MUCIN0-3km;0-1km Storm Relative HelicityLapse rate 900-600hPa and mixing ratio
500m AGL.
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What I would like to have from Arome
Maybe - unsemble
MUCAPE/MUCIN; Most unstable level on tephigram
Hodographs on each tephigram
0-6km; 0-1km windshear
But I`m not really sure.
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Thank you all