Maria da Graça Derengowski Fonseca INSTITUTO DE ECONOMIA- UFRJ e INFOSUCRO-NUCA/IE-UFRJ
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Transcript of Maria da Graça Derengowski Fonseca INSTITUTO DE ECONOMIA- UFRJ e INFOSUCRO-NUCA/IE-UFRJ
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Sistemas Agroindustrias de Produção e Inovação no Brasil:
Grãos e Cana de Açúcar
Agribusiness Sector Systems of Production and Innovaton in Brazil:
Sugar and Grains
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Maria da Graça Derengowski Fonseca
INSTITUTO DE ECONOMIA- UFRJ e INFOSUCRO-NUCA/IE-UFRJ
José Maria Jardim da Silveira
INSTITUTO DE ECONOMIA- NEA/ UNICAMP
Equipe de Pesquisa do INFOSUCRO
Charles Menard (economista senior e consultor Infosucro-NUCA/ IE- UFRJ)
Francisco José Peixoto Rosário (doutorando IE –UFRJ e professor da ESAMC-Alagoas)
Rômulo Neves Ely ( estagiário e mestrando COPPE-UFRJ)
UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO RIO DE JANEIRO
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GRAINS and SOY
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5,7
2,6
4,54,0 4,7
5,95,0
2,32,22,21,5
1,8
3,3
4,03,8
3,9
3,1
1,0
3,0
5,0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Anos
(%)
Soja na exportação da economia brasileira
Carne de frango na exportação da economia brasileira
Parcela de mercado das exportações agrícolas do Brasil na exportação agrícola mundial
Participation of Soy and Poultry on the Brazilian Exports ( 1999 a 2004)
FAO e MIDIC/ SECEX
Exports of Soy on Total Exports
Exports of Poultry on Total Exports
Brazilian Agribusiness Share of Market on Total Exports
years
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Participation of Soy and Poultrys Exports on the Brazilian Agribusiness Exports (1999 a 2004)
73,3
9,2
76,571,6
69,2
58,3
41,5
19,820,518,117,017,1
11,56,3
8,0 8,0 8,26,30
20
40
60
80
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Anos
(%)
Soja na exportação brasileira de grãos
Soja na exportação agrícola do Brasil
Carne de frango na exportação agrícola do Brasil
Fonte: FAO e MIDIC/ SECEX
Exports of Soy on Exports of Grains
Exports of Soy on Agribusiness Exports
Exports of Poultry on Agribusiness Exports
years
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Soy, Poultry, Beef -Participation on the Total Exports of Agribusiness Products in Brazil (1999 a 2004)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
soja carne de frango carne bovina
Source FAO e MIDIC/ SECEX
soy poultry beef
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The Importance of Grain Crops in Brazilian Agriculture, selected years
years
Total Area Grains Others
Hectares
AreaHectares
Share of total
harvested area (%)
AreaHectares
Share of total
harvested area (%)
1990 50,514,696 39,722,379 0.79 10,792,317 0.21
1995 50,761,717 39,694,779 0.78 11,081,938 0.22
2000 50,197,382 38,802,850 0.77 11,394,532 0.23
2005 62,639,616 49,822,380 0.80 12,817,236 0.21
Source: IBGE,2006
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Grain Production and Harvested Area, 1990-2005
0,00
20,00
40,00
60,00
80,00
100,00
120,00
140,00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Produçtion (106 hec)
Harvested area (106 hec)
Source: Agrianual (2006)
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4,3
54,4
8,9
17,7
6,5
19,219,4
2,6
23,5
46,6
3,2
31,2
43,6
16,4
2,4
Norte Nordeste Sudeste Sul Centro Oeste
1990 1996 2002
60´s
70´s
80´s
90´s
50´s
RR
AM
AC
AP
RO
CE
RJ
ESSP
RNPB
PEAL
SE
PR
MS MG
RS
SC
GO
BAMT
PA
TO
MA
P
I
Crops by Main
Regions
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Region Coffee Beans Corn Soybean Wheat
1995 North 1,25 0,46 1,56 1,81 -
Northeast 0,86 0,31 0,80 2,21 -
Southeast 0,99 0,78 2,85 2,11 1,99
South 0,55 0,89 3,03 2,21 1,55
Central-West 1,11 0,80 3,44 2,21 0,95
Brazil 0,99 0,54 2,49 2,20 1,54
1999 North 1,15 0,61 1,52 2,45 -
Northeast 1,00 0,41 1,02 2,11 -
Southeast 1,50 0,99 3,07 2,52 2,55
South 2,15 0,87 3,16 2,10 1,95
Central-West 1,37 1,27 3,67 2,71 1,59
Brazil 1,48 0,69 2,76 2,38 1,95
2003 North 0,69 0,70 1,67 2,41 -
Northeast 0,55 0,45 0,94 1,88 -
Southeast 1,14 1,20 3,82 2,71 2,07
South 0,96 1,10 3,47 2,28 1,43
Central-West 0,92 1,76 3,77 2,94 1,20
Brazil 1,05 0,81 3,01 2,57 1,43
Partial Productivity by Region and Selected Years (ton/hectares)
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0
50
100
150
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
GRAIN FERT
Brazil: Total Sales of Fertilizers and Grain Production (1990-2005)- mil ton
Source: MAPA (www.mapa.gov.br)
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Brazilian States Farm
Production %Industrial
Production %
(1000 ton year) (ton/ per day)
Paraná 9.386 17,6 32.115 23,4
Rio Grande do Sul 7.519 14,1 21.200 15,5
Mato Grosso 15.877 29,7 21.000 15,3
Goiás 6.985 13,1 18.500 13,2
São Paulo 1.569 2,9 15.600 11,4
Mato Grosso do Sul 4.376 8,2 8.295 6,1
Minas Gerais 2.483 4,6 6.600 4,8
Bahia 1.991 3,7 5.344 3,9
Santa Catarina 815 1,5 4.034 2,9
Piauí 545 1,0 2.360 1,7
Sub-total 51.545 1,0 135.048 1,0
Outros 1.869 0,0 2.050 0,0
Brasil 53.414 100,0 137.098 100,0Source:Abiove e Soybean Yearbook , 2006
Soy in Brazilian States – Farm and Industrial Capability in 2005
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200.000
119.114112.367
100.836
55.978 55.316
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
91/
92
92/
93
93/
94
94/
95
95/
96
96/
97
97/
98
98/
99
99/
00
00/
01
01/
02
02/
03
03/
04
04/
05
05/
06
06/
07
07/
08
08/
09
09/
10
10/
11
11/
12
12/
13
13/
14
15/
16
Crop (tons) Exports (tons)
Forecast of Brazilian Deficit of Storage Capacity for Grain Exports
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SYSTEM OF INNOVATIONS
• Competitiveness in the Production of grain seeds in Brazil is based on innovation and partnership among the SNDA/EMBRAPA and private companies
• The launch Property Laws (Lei de Proteção aos Cultivares-9456 Law) helped to develop efficiency in grain seeds crops maintaining the importance of the R&D Systems (EMBRAPA and SNDA)
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Itens EMBRAPA SNPA
Programas Nacionais de Pesquisa 6 22
Projetos em Andamento 781 1.200
Pesquisadores 2.206 2.100
Número Total de empregados 8.619 8.100
Orçamento (US$ milhões, valores de 2005) 480 1.100
The EMBRAPA and SNPA Research System
SNPA/ EMBRAPA-Sistema Nacional de Pesquisa Agropécuária
National Research Programs
Number of Researchers
Total Employees
Budget US$ Million,2005
Number of Projects
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Property Rights in seeds: R&D licencences in the SNPC (1996-2005)
0 50 100 150 200 250
Embrapa (219)
Outros 68 ( <11 cultivares)
MONSOY (81)
COODETEC (46)
COPERSUCAR (29)
FECOTRIGO (20)
UFV (18)
Naturalle Agromercantil (16)
Fundação Mato Grosso (14)
IAPAR (13)
Bretagne-P
Or melhramento
Em
pre
sa
s
Cultivares
Source Teixeira (2006)
companies
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Seed and Crop Yelds- Participation of EMBRAPA on Value of Production and Economic Benefit (2002/2003)
ProdutoEmbrapa Seeds and Crops (%)
Value of Production EMBRAPA- 2002/2003crops(R$ Million) *
EMBRAPA Benefit(R$ Million) *
Cotton 53,3 1.753,8 924,5
Water rice 37,8 1.114,1 253,2
Dry Rice 43,2 1.441,0 405,1
Beans 53,6 2.268,2 1.641,1
Corn 8,0 840.0 425,9
Soy 39,0 9.932,7 997,0
Wheat 28,5 583,1 295,4
total n.s.a. 17.932,4 4.943,4
Fonte: Teixeira, 2006.
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EMBRAPA and Innovation
• The importance of EMBRAPA e other governmental centers is related to their efficiency on biotechnology innovations
grain and other crops, with exception of corn
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EMBRAPA: Funding Innovation Activities using Royalties e Partnership Contracts (2001/06)
Source: Teixeira, 2006
Licences (1.000 ton) Royalties (R$ 1.000) Number of Contracts
225 270 463 351 309 451
3117
5617
8991
1199313499
20532
1211651 1200 1500 1264
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Licenciamento de Cultivares (1.000 ton.) Arrecadação de royalties (R$ 1.000)
Número de Contratos
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The Sugar and Alcohol SSPI
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Sugar and Alcohol Institutional History in Brazil
1937: Instituto de Açúcar e Alcohol (IAA) was created to coordinate production defining rules and norms of production and comertialization to the private agents
1971: Planalsucar: R&D agency belonging to IAA
1970/1971 Centro de Tecnologia da Copersucar (CT-COPER) into COPERSUCAR
First Oil Crisis-1974/75 Proalcool is created in 1975 – national security perspective
Second Oil Crisis and Economic Debt Crisis in Brazil in the end of the 70´s/ beginning of the 80´s Impossibility to sustain governmental programs
End of Proálcool in 1990
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Source: UNICA- Quoted from Delgado,V.,BNDES(2007)
Evolution of Sugar Cane and Ethanol Production and Facts
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Source: Unica
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FIGURA 17- Evolução das Exportações de Açúcar e Álcool no Brasil
Fonte: MDIC/ AliceWeb, 2007
Brazilian Exports of Sugar and Alcohol in US$ FOB
1.000 US$ FOB
Alcohol 1.000.000 US$ FOB
Sugar 1.000 US$ FOB
Source
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Brazilian Exports of Sugar and Alcohol by Countries
BRICS
Brazilian Exports of Sugar by Destiny
BRICSBrics
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Source www.ebio.org (06/2006)- Quoted from Delgado,BNDES(2007)
US,UE and Brazil Ethanol Production(2006)
US Brazil UE
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Brazil and US: 70% of Production
Source:RFA (F.O.Licht)
Biggest Producers of Ethanol*
(10 countries:89% of global production)
Millions of GAL per year
* All degrees of ethanol
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-
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
Álc
oo
l (m
il m
3)
-
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
Açú
car
(mil
hõ
es/t
on
s)
Álcool
Açúcar
Sugar and Alcohol Production in Production
(1970/1971-2003/2004)
Source : Infosucro
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Potential Production for Sugar Cane Agriculture
Source:IG-UNICAMP- CGEE
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Produtores de Açúcar e álcool ( Usinas e destilarias)
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
un
ida
de
s f
ab
ris
Usinas de açúcar
Produtores de álcool
Total = açúcar + álcool
BRAZIL-Sugar Cane Mills and Alcohol Production Plants
316
Source: IBGE/PIA
130
186
SUGAR AND ALCOHOL PLANTS
Sugar
Alcohol
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EVOLUÇÃO DOS ÍNDICES DE CONCENTRAÇÃO
14%15%14%
16%16%15%18%
27%29%29%29%29%27%
30%
41%43%43%43%43%42%44%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2006/ 2005 2005/ 2004 2004/ 2003 2003/ 2002 2002/ 2001 2001/ 2000 2000/ 1999
Cr (4) Cr (10) Cr (20)
Source: Fonseca and Menard, INFOSUCRO IE-UFRJ
Concentration Rates of Sugar Cane Industrial Plant Producers Production in Brazil (2002/2006)
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Consumo de açúcar, álcool e energia elétrica (cogeração), em TEP
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
ÁLCOOL AÇÚCAR COGERAÇÃO
Source of Data: BEN-EPE quoted by Ely,R.N. - INFOSUCRO
Sugar Cane Diversification Sugar,Alcohol and Eletricity Co-Generation consume in TEP*
*TEP: 10x10 cal (joules)9
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Ethanol Production Costs (US$/galon)
Source:USDA
Brazil Sugar-cane
US corn
US Beet
US Cane
US White Sugar
UE Beet
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Productivity GainsProductivity Gains Center-South RegionCenter-South Region
Source: UNICA
40,00
45,00
50,00
55,00
60,00
65,00
70,00
75,00
80,00
85,00
75 80 90 00 04
tca
ne
/he
cta
re
750,0
950,0
1.150,0
1.350,0
1.550,0
1.750,0
ga
l e
tha
no
l/h
ec
tare
tcane/hectare Gal ethanol/hectare
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40,00
50,00
60,00
70,00
80,00
90,00
100,00
110,00
120,00
130,00
140,00
150,00
160,00
Tonelada de cana por hectare Rendimento industrial - Kg ART / Ton de cana
Productivity and Agribusiness Yields
Ton cane/hectare Industrial Yelds*
*kg ART/ton sugar cane
Source: INFOSUCRO
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Vendas Autoveículos Nacionais por Tipo de Combustível - Unidade
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
GASOLINA ÁLCOOL FLEX
SELLING CARS IN BRAZIL ACCORDIND THE TYPE OF FUELS
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Innovation in Sugar Cane Production
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Sugarcane crops in Brazil/Innovation
Protection from pests and diseases is a strength of Brazil’s production: it is based on a continued supply of resistant sugar-cane varieties and not much on phytosanitary barriers ( natural traps)
The sugar-cane genetic improvement programs in Brazil released 51 varieties over the past ten years; the most used variety occupies just 12.6 percent of the area.
Brazil has (non-commercial) transgenic varieties since the 1990’s.
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Next Step Innovations
Next 10 – 20 years much more efficient use of sugar cane biomass will increase significantly the range of products and their value
– Some technologies in advanced development stage (worldwide) are key for this transformation: the hydrolysis of biomass (bagasse and trash) as well as many different fermentation technologies; and the biomass gasification, leading to power or fuel synthesis.
– Sugar cane appears an ideal feedstock for future “bio-refineries”, for its relatively low cost, large availability and an interesting mix of 1/3 sucrose & 2/3 pre-processed ligno-cellulosic material.
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R&D Institutional Structure
PRIVATE• CTC- Centro de Tecnologia Canavieiro (old CT-COP
from Coopersucar created in 1970) incremental innovations and development of new varieties of sugar cane (genetic improvements)
GOVERNMENTAL• APTA: Agência Paulista de Tecnologia do Agro-negócio
da Secretaria de Agricultura de SÃO PAULO
• Instituto Agronômico de Campinas, IB ans IEA (SP)
• Planalsucar (Araras-SP) belongs now to the Universidade Federal de São Carlos
• EMBRAPA
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UNIVERSITIES
- UNICAMP- CBMEG - SÃO CARLOS- Departamento de
Biologia Vegetal Programa de Melhoramento Genético da Cana e Departamento de Recursos Naturais e Proteção Ambiental
- FEALQ- Piracicaba - Universidade Federal Rural de Alagoas- Centro de CARPINA em Pernambuco
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CTC 6Destaca-se pela alta produtividade, com alta resistência às principais doenças sendo recomendada para colheita do meio para o final da safra, em ambientes de boa a média produção. Apresenta fibra baixa, pouco florescimento
CTC 7Destaca-se pela precocidade, com alto teor de sacarose e resistência às principais doenças, sendo recomendada para colheita no início da safra, em ambientes de alta a média produção. Apresenta fibra média, pouco florescimento
CTC 8Destaca-se pela ótima brotação de soqueira e porte ereto, sendo recomendada para colheita do meio para o final da safra, em ambientes de média produção. Apresenta fibra alta, pouco florescimento e pouca isoporização.
CTC 9Destaca-se pelo alto teor de sacarose e precocidade, sendo recomendada para colheita no início da safra, em ambientes de média a baixa produção. Apresenta fibra média, pouco florescimento e pouca isoporização.
CTC Second Generation Varieties
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Xylella strainsLeifsoniaLeptospiraEucalyptusHuman pathogensBovineCoffee
X. citriX. campestris
Fonte: Fapesp/ Embrapa
Biotecnology and Sucar CaneSugar Cane Project
Other Projects
UNICAMP- CBMEG
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Genetics and genomics to develop new sugar cane varities
São Carlos
Objetivo: bio-informátics projects
UNICAMP
Genetic and genomics innovations related to the development of agribusiness products: soya, citrus,grapes, eucaliptus and sugar-cane UNICAMP
start-ups start-ups
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Thank you!
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Source: MDIC- AliceWeb-INFOSUCRO (2007)
Brazilian Exports of Sugar by Destiny
BRICS
Other
Africa
East of Asia
US
West of Asia
UE
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UE
US
BRICS
Japan
Africa
West of Asia
Central America
Other
T
Brazilian Exports of Alcohol by Destiny *
Source: MDIC- AliceWeb-INFOSUCRO (2007)