March 22, 2004 Presentation to Canola Council of CanadaBob Messenger, Publisher & Editor, The Morning Cup, www.foodtrends.com

► More than 40% of products on grocery store shelves contain trans fats► Trans Fats in 95% of cookies, 80% of frozen breakfast foods, 75% of salty snacks and chips, 70% of cake mixes and almost half of all cold cereals

Winnipeg Sun“Trans fats fall into the category of ‘killer.’ [It is]

‘toxic garbage’ and should be banned

altogether … Trans fats are toxic and only one molecule away from

plastic.“

Pat MartinWinnipeg NDP MP

(Heart & Stroke Foundation)

(US Census Bureau)

Health & Nutrition

Low-carb Michelob Ultra - Anheuser-Busch's most successful launch since Bud Light

H.J. Heinz introducing low-carb ketchup

Panera Bread developing low-carb variety

Russell Stover and Hershey both introduce low-carb candies; Carbolite makes gummi bears as well as ice cream

Hardee’s (Thickburger), Subway (Atkins Wrap), other fast-food chains develop low-carb alternatives

By 2010, all food and beverage products will offer one or more significant wellness benefits (functional, nutraceutical, medicinal, organic, soy-based, natural, etc.)

Fusion of food and dietary value components will be building block for 2010 success, a response to growth in medical knowledge and its relationship to health and nutrition

By 2010, majority of Americans and Canadians will consider themselves “vegetarians,” ranging from minority hard-core vegans to majority traditional and pseudo-veggies.

Majority will identify themselves as vegetarians even though many will continue to consume non-vegetarian food such as meat, snacks, dessert, etc., but not as often and in smaller portions.

Only non-vegetarian food products that offer health and nutrition benefits will succeed in this environment

Customers for new products will be increasingly defined by culture,with emphasis on America’s growing Latino influence

The Changing Face of America

Cultural Diversity

“Coach treats us like men.He lets us wear earrings.”University of Houston Football Player

13% of US population is Hispanic Nearly 40 million Hispanics now reside in US Hispanic population of the United States will increase by almost 25 million people by 2020, to 60.4 million Mexicans currently comprise 66.9% of US Hispanic population Hispanics are largest and fastest-growing ethnic group in the United States

The Hispanic Factor

Vendable foods and beverages will be new super distribution channel by 2010 Prominent in office and apartment complexes; vending-only centers (similar to c-stores); on street corners, and, in some cases, in the home. Vendable foods will include hot meals, ethnic-ready meals, meal combos … with broad selections of sides, desserts and snacks

The Vending Boom

Beverly Hills, Calif.-based Pure Foods rolling out line of low-carb vending machines featuring 17 snacks and 8 low-carb beverages. Includes Atkins-brand Shakes and snack bars, and variety of other health-oriented snacks

By 2010, large food marketers like Kraft Foods will manage their own chain ofc-stores Designed to not only enhance convenience factor for consumers, but also, along with packaged products, featuring kitchens, chefs, etc., providing fresh, prepared hot (and cold) meals utilizing diverse portfolio of Kraft’s brand name products

Illustration by Paul Vilser, The Morning Cup

“C” For Corporate Stores

The Wal-Mart Universe

► Wal-Mart is world’s largest retailer► Wal-Mart Supercenters will continue to steamroll competitive landscape – to tune of about 200 new units a year► Wal-Mart will consume almost a third of expected growth in US spending on grocery and drug products during 2003-2007; would give Wal-Mart control of 35% of food store industry sales and 25% of drug store industry in the U.S. ► Wal-Mart was sued 4,851 times in 2000––or about once every 2 hours, every day of the year. Wal-Mart lawyers list about 9,400 open cases,” according to USA Today

Fighting Back!

Supermarkets will eventually have to accommodate on-the-go consumers in North America with quick-service drive-throughs.

Customers can order in the morning or afternoon and have their hot or cold meals and desserts ready when they drive through.

By 2010 marketers will be doing minimum 25%-30%, or more, of their sales via Internet marketing New products will be designed ONLY for internet salesBulk-quantity sales will prosper and become brand-name marketers’ answer to Sam’s Club and other warehouse operations where bulk is boss

The Internet Factor

Americans 50 and older increasingly using Internet to shop. More than 33 million, or 43 percent, of Americans age 50 and older have been online.(Source: "A Nation Online," a Commerce Department study released in February 2002)

54 percent of those under the age of 55 had bought online, while 42 percent of those over 55 had done so.(eMarketer.com, a New York-based Internet research firm)

Thinking Outside The Box!

Engage, educate, excite and enlighten; consumers need to know health and taste benefits associated with canola oil Provide more leadership in developing unique new product concepts, including convenience-oriented packaging approaches; e.g., sponsor annual Creative Retreat for members; two to three days of envisioning and inventing new product ideas Step-up interaction with consumer and trade media to generate greater coverage of canola oil as healthy ingredient; promote speaker’s bureau and steady flow of information Develop more aggressive internet presence; build online bridges to consumer, media and marketer; e.g., online newsletter encompassing world of canola, from product reviews to recipes; offer online purchase of high-quality, branded canola oils

“If we had asked the people what they wanted, they

would have saidfaster horses!”

Henry Ford

Bob Messenger, Publisher & Editor, The Morning Cup, www.foodtrends.com