March 2016 - Amazon Simple Storage Services3.amazonaws.com/kcmcontent/2016/03.16/KCM-03-16.pdf ·...

MARCH 2016

Inman News

Are you optimistic about the 2016

housing market?

73.7%

Chart1

0.319

0.418

0.2

0.049

0.006

Series 1

< 1%

Sheet1

Series 1

Extremely Optimistic31.9%

Somewhat Optimistic41.8%

Neither20.0%

Somewhat Pessimistic4.9%

Extremely Pessimistic0.6%

To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

Y-O-Y by region

EXISTINGHome Sales

NAR 2/2016

Chart1

0.11

0.057

0.083

0.206

0.182

Series 1

11.0%

5.7%

8.3%

20.6%

18.2%

Sheet1

Series 1

U.S.11.0%

South5.7%

West8.3%West0.064

Northeast20.6%Midwest0.13

Midwest18.2%South0.036


Urban Land InstituteEmerging Trends in Real Estate 2016

You can never forget about cycles, but the next 24 months look doggone good for real estate.

HOUSEHOLDSin the U.S.*

2016-2018123.9MCurrent Households in the United States

4.8%Projected Growth over

the Next 3 Years

*Urban Land Institutes 2016

Emerging Trends in Real Estate

5.95MAdditional Households

to be Formed

It appears that in a majority of markets, housing has indeed stabilized and ispoised to begin a sustained upwardtrajectory. Another 2015 trend was thatpeak levels of millennials and baby boomerswould be making housing decisionsin the next five years.

This could have a significantly positive impact on housing: millennials buying their first homes and baby boomers either downsizing or retiring to a new home or perhaps purchasing a second home.

Urban Land InstituteEmerging Trends in Real Estate 2016

Louise KeelyPresident of The Demand Institute

We expect new household formation to be robust over thenext decade as the largemillennial generation agesand forms new householdsof their own.

Demand for for-sale housing will grow and will continue to be dominated by older millennials, aged25 to 34. This demographic hasthe potential to claim a third of home sales in 2016 and represent 2 million home purchases.

Jonathan Smoke Chief Economist at realtor.com

% Who Associate Homeownership with the American Dream

by age by race

Zillow

Chart1

0.653

0.584

0.569

0.639

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1Series 2Series 3

18-3465.3%

35-4958.4%

50-6056.9%

65+63.9%


Chart1

0.697

0.637

0.629

0.576

Series 1

Sheet1


Hispanics69.7%

Asians63.7%

Blacks62.9%

Whites57.6%


The most important housing market trend in 2016 will be the developing housing shortage.

New housing construction haspicked up in recent years, but it remainswell below that needed to meet demandfrom newly formed households, secondhome buyers, and obsolescence of the existing stock of homes.

Mark ZandiChief Economist, Moodys Analytics

Lawrence YunNARs Chief Economist

The spring buying season is right around the corner and current supply levels aren't even close to what's needed to accommodate the subsequent growth in housing demand.

NAR 2/2016

Last 12 Months

HOUSINGSUPPLY

March May June

Chart1

-0.005

0.02

-0.009

0.018

0.004

-0.047

-0.017

-0.031

-0.045

-0.019

-0.038

-0.022

%

-0.50%

2%

-0.90%

0.40%

-4.7%

-1.7%

-3.1%

-2.2%

Sheet1

%

Feb-0.5%

March2.0%

April-0.9%

May1.8%

June0.4%

July-4.7%

August-1.7%

Sept-3.1%

Oct-4.5%

Nov-1.9%

Dec-3.8%

Jan-2.2%

Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE

NAR 1/2016

Chart1

4.6

4.7

4.6

5.2

5.1

5

4.8

5.1

4.8

4.8

5.1

3.9

4

Series 1

4.9

Sheet1

Series 1

Jan4.6

Feb4.7

Mar4.6

Apr5.2

May5.1

Jun5.0

Jul4.8

Aug5.1

Sep4.8

Oct4.8

Nov5.1

Dec3.9

Jan4.0

Home Prices

The Impact of Monthly Housing Inventory on Home Prices

LESS THAN 6 MONTHS

BETWEEN6-7 MONTHS

GREATER THAN7 MONTHS

SELLERS MARKET

Home prices will appreciate

NEUTRAL MARKET

Home prices will only appreciate

with inflation

BUYERS MARKET

Home prices will depreciate

Chart1

6

7

8

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

Category 16

Category 27

Category 38


NAR

Quarter-Over-Quarter

% Change in U.S.Median Home Price

Chart1

0.055

0.069

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

%Change Q3 2014-Q3 20155.5%

%Change Q4 2014-Q4 20156.9%


FHFA

Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Price by Region

FHFA

Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Price by State

FHFA

Quarter-Over-Quarter Percent Change in Price by State

Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGES20 City Composite

Case Shiller

S&P Case Shiller 2/2016

Chart1

0.132

0.129

0.124

0.108

0.093

0.081

0.067

0.056

0.048

0.045

0.043

0.044

0.046

0.05

0.05

0.049

0.049

0.05

0.05

0.047

0.054

0.055

0.057

0.057

Year-over-Year Change in Prices

4.8%

4.3%

4.5%

4.6%

5.0%

4.7%

5.4%

5.5%

Sheet1


Jan 201413.2%

Feb12.9%

Mar12.4%

Apr10.8%

May9.3%

Jun8.1%

Jul6.7%

Aug5.6%

Sep4.8%

Oct4.5%

Nov4.3%

Dec4.4%

Jan 20154.6%

Feb5.0%

Mar5.0%

Apr4.9%

May4.9%

Jun5.0%

Jul5.0%

Aug4.7%

Sep5.4%

Oct5.5%

Nov5.7%

Dec5.7%

Home Price Expectation

Survey

A nationwide panel of over one hundred

economists, real estate experts and investment

& market strategists.

Average Annual % APPRECIATION

Pre-Bubble

Bubble

Bust

RecoveryTo Date

Home Price Expectation Survey 2016 1Q

Chart1

3.6

6.9

-5.2

4.5

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

1987 - 19993.6

Jan 2000 - May 20076.9

Jun 2007 - Dec 2011-5.2

Jan 2012 - Dec 20154.5

PROJECTEDMean Percentage Appreciation


Chart1

3.7

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

Series 1

3.7

Sheet1

Series 1201520162017201820192020

20163.73.93.43.13.13.13.1

20173.33.73.33.23.23.1

20183.2

20193.2

20203.1

3.65% 3.30% 3.16% 3.24% 3.13%

Cumulative House Appreciation

by 2020

Bulls All Projections Bears


Chart1

0.25

0.177

0.109

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

Bulls25.0%

All Projections17.7%

Bears10.9%


CoreLogic 2/2016

Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Price by State

Is another

HOUSING

about to take place?

Mortgage Credit Availability

YES NO MAYBE

Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association

Mortgage Credit Availability

Chart1

108.6

108.9

109.8

112.3

111.5

110.7

111.5

110.2

110.9

113

113.5

114

113.8

115.1

115.8

116.4

116.1

116.1

113.4

114.6

115.7

117.8

118.6

121.4

122

122.6

122

125.5

126.1

126.5

128.4

127.4

124.3

123.8

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

April 2013108.6

108.9

109.8

112.3

111.5

110.7

111.5

110.2

110.9

Jan 2014113

113.5

114

113.8

115.1

115.8

116.4

116.1

116.1

113.4

114.6

115.7

Jan 2015117.8

118.6

121.4

122

122.6

122

125.5

126.1

126.5

128.4

127.4

124.3

Jan 2016123.8

Historic Data for the MORTGAGE CREDIT AVAILABILITY INDEX (a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association)

MBA

Chart1

390

800

860

550

110

120

105

110

105

110

115

122

123.8

Series 1

Sheet1


June 2004390

June 2005800

June 2006860

June 2007550

June 2008110

June 2009120

June 2010105

June 2011110

June 2012105

June 2013110

June 2014115

June 2015122

January 2016123.8

Housing was one of the few bright spots in the economy last year, and we expect continued improvement in 2016.The imbalance between demand for housing and the supply of both houses and apartments has supported rapid growth in both house prices and rents. The gap between demand and supply willnot be closed any time soon, thus we project continued house price appreciation in 2016. Rent growth will remain above long-term averages this year.

Freddie Mac

The Challenge

Our Responsibility

Quicken Loans

Appraiser Home Value Opinions Compared to Homeowner Estimates

Last 12 Months

Chart1

-0.13

-0.4

-0.69

-1.15

-1.4

-2.33

-2.65

-2

-1.98

-1.87

-1.8

-1.75

%

Sheet1

%

Mar-0.13

Apr-0.4

May-0.69

Jun-1.15

Jul-1.4

Aug-2.33

Sep-2.65

Oct-2

Nov-1.98

Dec-1.87

Jan-16-1.8

Feb-1.75

Homeowners who bought during the housing boom are regaining equity many thought was lost forever, yet too many are not aware of the equity they have gained or they are unclear about how to determine changes in their equity.

Bryan Sullivan CFO of loanDepot

Median Asking

RENTsince 1988

Census

Chart1

343

346

371

398

411

430

429

438

444

442

461

461

483

518

568

589

615

605

633

665

696

708

698

694

717

734

762

850

Rent

Sheet1

YearRent

1988$ 343

1989$ 346

1990$ 371

1991$ 398

1992$ 411

1993$ 430

1994$ 429

1995$ 438

1996$ 444

1997$ 442

1998$ 461

1999$ 461

2000$ 483

2001$ 518

2002$ 568

2003$ 589

2004$ 615

2005$ 605

2006$ 633

2007$ 665

2008$ 696

2009$ 708

2010$ 698

2011$ 694

2012$ 717

2013$ 734

2014$ 762

2015$ 850

$44,061

Increased home equity based on price appreciation projected by the Home Price Expectation Survey

potential growth in family wealth over the next five years based solely on increased home equity


Marietta RodriguezVice President of National Homeownership ProgramsNeighborWorks America

"A lot of people make assumptions that they can't afford to buy based on just some perceptions, and many have not taken thestep to figure out how mortgage-ready they are.

Bankrate Money Pulse Survey

What size down payment is necessary?

Chart1

0.04

0.09

0.17

0.18

0.21

0.24

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

0%4%

1-5%9%

6-10%17%

11-20%18%

> 20%21%

Don't Know24%


Apparently, consumers find buying a home even more complicated and confusing than we thought...The bottom line-consumers need more education on qualifying for mortgages, and agents canplay a key role in that effort.

Fannie Mae

FICO Score Requirements

inching downward

All closed loans as per Ellie Mae

Chart1

731

732

731

729

730

727

725

724

723

722

721

722

719

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

Jan-15731

Feb732

Mar731

Apr729

May730

Jun727

Jul725

Aug724

Sep723

Oct722

Nov721

Dec722

Jan-16719

Our study also showed that consumers are very confused about pretty much all the criteria to qualify for a mortgage

Only 5-16% percent of respondents chose the right criteria, with almost half of consumers answering, "Don't know".

Educating consumers and addressingmisconceptions about the purchase and mortgage processis critical to responsibly expand the pool of homebuyers

and agents are key to this process.

Fannie Mae

INTERESTRATES

Inman News

Will Mortgage Rates Go Up or Down in 2016?

Chart1

0.699

0.288

0.012

Series 1

69.9%

Sheet1

Series 1

Up69.9%

Won't Move Noticeably28.8%

Down1.2%


Freddie Mac 3/2016

30 Year FixedRate Mortgages

from Freddie Mac

Chart1

4.01

3.97

3.92

3.81

3.79

3.72

3.65

3.65

3.62

3.64

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

12/31/154.01

1/7/163.97

1/143.92

1/213.81

1/283.79

2/43.72

2/113.65

2/183.65

2/253.62

3/33.64

Quarter Fannie MaeFreddie

Mac MBA NARAverage

of all four

2016 2Q 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.93%

2016 3Q 3.8% 4.2% 4.1% 4.2% 4.08%

2016 4Q 3.8% 4.4% 4.3% 4.4% 4.23%

2017 1Q 3.9% 4.5% 4.4% 4.5% 4.33%

Mortgage Rate Projections

2/2016

Freddie Mac

Mortgage RatesFreddie Mac 30 Year Fixed Rate

- Actual- Projected2015

2016

2017

Chart1

3.7

3.8

4

3.9

3.8

3.9

4.2

4.4

4.5

4.7

4.9

5.1

Rate

Sheet1

Rate

2015 Q13.7

2015 Q23.8

2015 Q34

2015 Q43.9

2016 Q13.8

2016 Q23.9

2016 Q34.2

2016 Q44.4

2017 Q14.5

2017 Q24.7

2017 Q34.9

2017 Q45.1

Average DaysTo Close A Loan50 days is the longest time needed to close a loan since February 2013

All closed loans as per Ellie Mae

Chart1

48

48

47

46

46

49

49

50

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

June48

July48

August47

September46

October46

November49

December49

January50

from May 2011 until Today

HPSI

Fannie Maes Home Purchase Sentiment Index(HPSI)

The HPSI distills results from Fannie Maes consumer-focused National Housing Survey into a single, monthly, predictive indicator.

Fannie Mae

Chart1

60

62.5

60.3

61

60

59.3

60.2

61.2

61.7

63.5

66.2

66.3

66.2

68.2

69.3

68.5

69.5

68

71.8

72.3

71.7

72.8

73.5

73.7

74.2

77.3

82.2

79.3

77.7

78.3

78.3

72.5

72.8

72.7

76.5

75

77.7

82.7

81.5

79.8

79

75.5

80.2

82.5

81

81.3

82.8

81.5

81.7

82.3

84.3

84.7

81.3

80.8

83.8

83.2

80.8

83.2

81.5

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

Mar-1160.0

Apr-1162.5

May-1160.3

Jun-1161.0

Jul-1160.0

Aug-1159.3

Sep-1160.2

Oct-1161.2

Nov-1161.7

Dec-1163.5

Jan-1266.2

Feb-1266.3

Mar-1266.2

Apr-1268.2

May-1269.3

Jun-1268.5

Jul-1269.5

Aug-1268.0

Sep-1271.8

Oct-1272.3

Nov-1271.7

Dec-1272.8

Jan-1373.5

Feb-1373.7

Mar-1374.2

Apr-1377.3

May-1382.2

Jun-1379.3

Jul-1377.7

Aug-1378.3

Sep-1378.3

Oct-1372.5

Nov-1372.8

Dec-1372.7

Jan-1476.5

Feb-1475.0

Mar-1477.7

Apr-1482.7

May-1481.5

Jun-1479.8

Jul-1479.0

Aug-1475.5

Sep-1480.2

Oct-1482.5

Nov-1481.0

Dec-1481.3

Jan-1582.8

Feb-1581.5

Mar-1581.7

Apr-1582.3

May-1584.3

Jun-1584.7

Jul-1581.3

Aug-1580.8

Sep-1583.8

Oct-1583.2

Nov-1580.8

Dec-1583.2

Jan-1681.5

NAR 2/2016

EXISTINGHome Sales

Since January 2014

Chart1

4620000

4600000

4590000

4660000

4910000

5030000

5140000

5050000

5180000

5250000

4930000

5070000

4930000

4970000

5250000

5140000

5290000

5410000

5480000

5290000

5440000

5290000

4860000

5450000

5470000

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

Jan 20144,620,000

Feb4,600,000

Mar4,590,000

Apr4,660,000

May4,910,000

Jun5,030,000

July5,140,000

Aug5,050,000

Sept5,180,000

Oct5,250,000

Nov4,930,000

Dec5,070,000

Jan 20154,930,000

Feb4,970,000

Mar5,250,000

Apr5,140,000

May5,290,000

Jun5,410,000

Jul5,480,000

Aug5,290,000

Sep5,440,000

Oct5,290,000

Nov4,860,000

Dec5,450,000

Jan 20165,470,000

NAR 2/2016

EXISTINGHome Sales

Since January 2012

Chart1

4510000

4520000

4460000

4530000

4590000

4410000

4600000

4840000

4780000

4830000

4960000

4900000

4940000

4950000

4940000

4970000

5140000

5060000

5390000

5390000

5290000

5120000

4820000

4870000

4620000

4600000

4590000

4660000

4910000

5030000

5140000

5050000

5180000

5250000

4930000

5070000

4930000

4970000

5250000

5140000

5290000

5410000

5480000

5290000

5440000

5290000

4860000

5450000

5470000

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

Jan 20124,510,000

4,520,000

4,460,000

4,530,000

4,590,000

4,410,000

4,600,000

4,840,000

4,780,000

4,830,000

4,960,000

4,900,000

Jan 20134,940,000

4,950,000

4,940,000

4,970,000

5,140,000

5,060,000

5,390,000

5,390,000

5,290,000

5,120,000

4,820,000

4,870,000

Jan 20144,620,000

4,600,000

4,590,000

4,660,000

4,910,000

5,030,000

5,140,000

5,050,000

5,180,000

5,250,000

4,930,000

5,070,000

Jan 20154,930,000

4,970,000

5,250,000

5,140,000

5,290,000

5,410,000

5,480,000

5,290,000

5,440,000

5,290,000

4,860,000

5,450,000

Jan 20165,470,000

100 = Historically Healthy Level

PENDING Home Salessince 2012

NAR 1/2016

Chart1

96.6859743435

96.6345105627

98.82151027

95.5249637759

100.1966054194

100.0200268269

102.6317368513

101.8134295223

102.8090451717

103.7771729578

103.3187353492

101.3

105.2

104.1

105.7

105.2

111.3

110.9

109.4

107.6

102.7

101.5

101.2

94.9

94.7

94.2

97.4

97.8

101.9

101.8

103.2

103

103.8

103.8

104

102.5

103.7

107.4

108.7

111.6

112.6

110.4

110.9

109.3

107.5

107.9

106.7

108.7

106

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

January 201296.7

96.6

98.8

95.5

100.2

100.0

102.6

101.8

102.8

103.8

103.3

101.3

January 2013105.2

104.1

105.7

105.2

111.3

110.9

109.4

107.6

102.7

101.5

101.2

94.9

January 201494.7

94.2

97.4

97.8

101.9

101.8

103.2

103.0

103.8

103.8

104.0

102.5

January 2015103.7

107.4

108.7

111.6

112.6

110.4

110.9

109.3

107.5

107.9

106.7

108.7

January 2016106.0

100 = Historically Healthy Level

NAR 1/2016

PENDINGHome Salessince 2014

Chart1

94.7

94.2

97.4

97.8

101.9

101.8

103.2

103

103.8

103.8

104

102.5

103.7

107.4

108.7

111.6

112.6

110.4

110.9

109.3

107.5

107.9

107.5

107.9

106.7

108.7

106

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

January 201494.7

94.2

97.4

97.8

101.9

101.8

103.2

103.0

103.8

103.8

104.0

102.5

January 2015103.7

107.4

108.7

111.6

112.6

110.4

110.9

109.3

107.5

107.9

107.5

107.9

106.7

108.7

January 2016106.0

PENDINGHome Sales

Year-over-Year by region

NAR 2/2016

Chart1

0.014

0.109

0.014

-0.013

0.004

Series 1

1.4%

10.9%

1.4%

-1.3%

0.4%

Sheet1

Series 1

U.S.1.4%

Northeast10.9%

Midwest1.4%

South-1.3%

West0.4%


13

% Change in Sales from last yearby Price Range

NAR 2/2016

Chart1

-0.08

0.097

0.218

0.208

0.176

0.184

%

9.7%

21.8%

20.8%

17.6%

18.4%

Sheet1

%

$0-100K-8.0%

$100-250K9.7%

$250-500K21.8%

$500-750K20.8%

$750K-1M17.6%

$1M+18.4%


Percentage of Distressed Property

Sales

35%

9%11%

NAR 2/2016

January 2012 - Today

Chart1

0.35

0.34

0.29

0.28

0.25

0.25

0.24

0.22

0.24

0.24

0.22

0.24

0.23

0.25

0.21

0.18

0.18

0.15

0.15

0.12

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.14

0.15

0.16

0.14

0.15

0.11

0.11

0.09

0.08

0.1

0.09

0.09

0.11

0.11

0.11

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.08

0.07

0.07

0.07

0.06

0.09

0.08

0.09

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

Jan 201235%

34%

29%

28%

25%

25%

24%

22%

24%

24%

22%

24%

Jan 201323%

25%

21%

18%

18%

15%

15%

12%

14%

14%

14%

14%

Jan 201415%

16%

14%

15%

11%

11%

9%

8%

10%

9%

9%

11%

Jan 201511%

11%

10%

10%

10%

8%

7%

7%

7%

6%

9%

8%

Jan 20169%


NAR 2/2016

2011 - Today

Chart1

7.5

8.6

8.3

9

9.1

9.2

9.5

8.4

8.3

7.7

7

6.2

6

6.4

6.2

6.5

6.4

6.5

6.4

6

5.6

5.4

4.8

4.4

4.3

4.7

4.6

5.2

5

5.1

5.1

4.9

5

4.9

5.1

4.6

4.9

5

5.2

5.7

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.3

5.1

5.1

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.6

5.2

5.1

5

4.8

5.1

4.8

4.8

5.1

3.9

4

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

January 20117.5

8.6

8.3

9.0

9.1

9.2

9.5

8.4

8.3

7.7

7.0

6.2

January 20126.0

6.4

6.2

6.5

6.4

6.5

6.4

6.0

5.6

5.4

4.8

4.4

January 20134.3

4.7

4.6

5.2

5.0

5.1

5.1

4.9

5.0

4.9

5.1

4.6

January 20144.9

5.0

5.2

5.7

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.3

5.1

5.1

4.4

January 20154.6

4.7

4.6

5.2

5.1

5.0

4.8

5.1

4.8

4.8

5.1

3.9

January 20164.0


NAR 2/2016

last 2 years

Chart1

4.9

5

5.2

5.7

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.3

5.1

5.1

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.6

5.2

5.1

5

4.9

5.1

4.8

4.8

5.1

3.9

4

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

Jan-144.9

Feb5.0

Mar5.2

Apr5.7

May5.5

Jun5.5

Jul5.5

Aug5.5

Sep5.3

Oct5.1

Nov5.1

Dec4.4

Jan-154.6

Feb4.7

Mar4.6

Apr5.2

May5.1

Jun5.0

July4.9

Aug5.1

Sep4.8

Oct4.8

Nov5.1

Dec3.9

16-Jan4.0


NAR 2/2016

Chart1

4.6

4.7

4.6

5.2

5.1

5

4.8

5.1

4.8

4.8

5.1

3.9

4

Series 1

4.9

Sheet1

Series 1

Jan4.6

Feb4.7

Mar4.6

Apr5.2

May5.1

Jun5.0

Jul4.8

Aug5.1

Sep4.8

Oct4.8

Nov5.1

Dec3.9

Jan4.0

NAR 2/2016

Year-over-Year Inventory Levels

Chart1

-0.24

-0.208

-0.168

-0.14

-0.13

-0.076

-0.05

-0.062

0.018

0.009

0.05

0.016

0.073

0.053

0.032

0.065

0.06

0.055

0.058

0.045

0.06

0.052

0.05

-0.005

-0.005

-0.005

0.02

-0.009

0.018

0.004

-0.047

-0.017

-0.031

-0.045

-0.019

-0.038

-0.022

%

Sheet1

%

Jan-24%

Feb-20.8%

Mar-16.8%

Apr-14%

May-13%

June-7.6%

July-5%

Aug-6.2%

Sept1.8%

Oct0.9%

Nov5.0%

Dec1.6%

Jan7.3%

Feb5.3%

Mar3.2%

Apr6.5%

May6%

Jun5.5%

Jul5.8%

Aug4.5%

Sep6%

Oct5.2%

Nov5%

Dec-0.50%

Jan-0.50%

Feb-0.50%

Mar2%

Apr-0.90%

May1.80%

Jun0.40%

Jul-4.70%

Aug-1.70%

Sep-3.10%

Oct-4.50%

Nov-1.90%

Dec-3.80%

Jan-2.20%

Foot Traffic

NAR 3/2016

indicator of future sales

Chart1

50.6

51.2

50

50.6

47.8

27.7

19.3

26.2

43.9

46.1

44.5

42.5

54.8

57

65.7

61

42.2

62

59.3

51

61

61

59

68.8

69

72.4

53.7

57.1

59.7

40.9

47.1

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

Jul 201350.6

51.2

50

50.6

47.8

27.7

Jan 201419.3

26.2

43.9

46.1

44.5

42.5

54.8

57

65.7

61

42.2

62

Jan 201559.3

51

61

61

59

68.8

69

72.4

53.7

57.1

59.7

40.9

Jan 201647.1

Foot Traffic

NAR 2/2016


Chart1

59.3

51

61

61

59

68.8

69

72.4

53.7

57.1

59.7

40.9

47.1

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

January 201559.3

February51

March61

April61

May59

June68.8

July69

August72.4

September53.7

October57.1

November59.7

December40.9

January 201647.1

Foot Traffic

NAR 2/2016


Chart1

53.7

57.1

59.7

40.9

47.1

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

September53.7

October57.1

November59.7

December40.9

January47.1

S&P Case Shiller 2/2016

Year-Over-Year

PRICECHANGES

Case Shiller

Chart1

0.006

0.011

0.02

0.036

0.043

0.055

0.068

0.081

0.093

0.102

0.121

0.122

0.121

0.124

0.128

0.133

0.136

0.137

0.136

0.132

0.129

0.124

0.108

0.093

0.081

0.067

0.056

0.048

0.045

0.043

0.044

0.046

0.05

0.05

0.049

0.049

0.05

0.05

0.047

0.054

0.055

0.057

0.057


Sheet1


June 20120.6%

1.1%

2.0%

3.6%

4.3%

5.5%

6.8%

January 20138.1%

9.3%

10.2%

12.1%

12.2%

12.1%

12.4%

12.8%

13.3%

13.6%

13.7%

13.6%

January 201413.2%

12.9%

12.4%

10.8%

9.3%

8.1%

6.7%

5.6%

4.8%

4.5%

4.3%

4.4%

Jan 20154.6%

5.0%

5.0%

4.9%

4.9%

5.0%

5.0%

4.7%

5.4%

5.5%

5.7%

December5.7%

Y-O-Y by regionEXISTING Home Prices

NAR 1/2016

Chart1

0.082

0.009

0.074

0.085

0.087

Series 1

8.2%

0.9%

7.4%

8.5%

8.7%

Sheet1

Series 1

U.S.8.2%

Northeast0.9%

West7.4%

South8.5%

Midwest8.7%


Existing Home Sales in thousands

Freddie Mac

Chart1

281281

282295

355405

422449

473495

506572

494551

479504

436471

443444

351351

413438

2014

2015

Sheet1

20142015

January281281

February282295

March355405

April422449

May473495

June506572

July494551

August479504

September436471

October443444

November351351

December413438

New Home Sales Annualizedin thousands

Chart1

408

403

454

459

472

449

495

521

545

485

508

513

469

500

507

442

470

490

544

494

Column1

Sheet1

Column1

Jun-14408

Jul403

Aug454

Sep459

Oct472

Nov449

Dec495

Jan-15521

Feb545

Mar485

Apr508

May513

Jun469

Jul500

Aug507

Sept442

Oct470

Nov490

Dec544

Jan-16494

New Home Sales in thousands

Freddie Mac

Chart1

3339

3545

3946

3950

4348

3845

3543

3643

3736

3838

3134

3538

2014

2015

Sheet1

20142015

January3339

February3545

March3946

April3950

May4348

June3845

July3543

August3643

September3736

October3838

November3134

December3538

% of sales by price range

New Home Sales

Chart1

0.07

0.16

0.32

0.2

0.11

0.09

0.05

Column1

Sheet1

Column1

Under $150K7%

$150-$199K16%

$200-$299K32%

$300-$399K20%

$400-$499K11%

$500-$749K9%

Over $750K5%

New Homes Selling Fast(median months from completion to sold)

Census

Chart1

3

3.2

3.3

3.8

4

3.9

4

3.5

3.5

3.2

2.9

3

2.9

3.4

Column1

Sheet1

Column1

Dec3.0

Jan-153.2

Feb3.3

Mar3.8

Apr4.0

May3.9

Jun4.0

Jul3.5

Aug3.5

Sep3.2

Oct2.9

Nov3.0

Dec2.9

Jan-163.4

New Home Inventory months supply

Census

Chart1

5.8

6.1

5.4

5.5

5.3

5.6

5.1

4.8

4.5

5.1

4.9

4.9

5.6

5.2

5.1

6.1

5.8

5.7

5.2

5.8

Column1

Sheet1

Column1

Jun-145.8

Jul6.1

Aug5.4

Sep5.5

Oct5.3

Nov5.6

Dec5.1

Jan-154.8

Feb4.5

Mar5.1

Apr4.9

May4.9

Jun5.6

Jul5.2

Aug5.1

Sep6.1

Oct5.8

Nov5.7

Dec5.2

Jan-165.8

according to the First-Time Buyer Mortgage Share Index by AEIs International Center on Housing Risk

% of all buyers were first time

buyers this month

AEIs International Center on Housing Risk

First Time Home Buyers

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

4 Inman News http://www.inman.com/special-report/whats-next-2016-industry-outlook-report/

5 Existing Home Sales http://www.realtor.org/

6-8 Urban Land Institute Study http://uli.org/research/centers-initiatives/center-for-capital-markets/emerging-trends-in-real-estate/americas/

9 Louise Keely https://www.conference-board.org/press/pressdetail.cfm?pressid=6670

10, 12, Jonathan Smoke & Mark ZandiQuote http://www.inman.com/2016/02/02/6-economists-forecast-2016-housing-market/

11 Zillow Study Homeownership http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=28775&item=137217

13 Lawrence Yun Quote http://www.bankrate.com/finance/consumer-index/money-pulse-0216.aspx

14, 15, 18 Housing Supply, Months Inventory, % Change in Price http://www.realtor.org

19-21 Y-O-Y Price Change Regional, by State, Q-O-Q Change http://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/House-Price-Index-(HPI).aspx

22, 67 Case Shiller Y-O-Y https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/308145_cshomeprice-release-0223.pdf

23-26, 38 Home Price Expectation Survey Results https://pulsenomics.com/Q1_2016_HPE_Survey.php

27 Forecasted Y-O-Y http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspx#

30 Mortgage Credit Availability http://www.mba.org/ResearchandForecasts/MCAI.htm

31 Mortgage Credit over Time https://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/forecasts-data-and-reports/single-family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-index

32 Freddie Mac Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/feb_2016_public_outlook.pdf

35 Appraiser vs Home Owner http://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2016/02/09/homeowner-expectation-of-value-nearing-appraiser-valuation/

36 Bryan Sullivan Quote http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nearly-half-of-all-us-homeowners-expect-equity-gains-in-2016-despite-strong-increases-since-2013-300223529.html

http://www.inman.com/special-report/whats-next-2016-industry-outlook-report/http://www.realtor.org/http://uli.org/research/centers-initiatives/center-for-capital-markets/emerging-trends-in-real-estate/americas/https://www.conference-board.org/press/pressdetail.cfm?pressid=6670http://www.inman.com/2016/02/02/6-economists-forecast-2016-housing-market/http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=28775&item=137217http://www.bankrate.com/finance/consumer-index/money-pulse-0216.aspxhttp://www.realtor.org/http://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/House-Price-Index-(HPI).aspxhttps://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/308145_cshomeprice-release-0223.pdfhttps://pulsenomics.com/Q1_2016_HPE_Survey.phphttp://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/corelogic-home-price-insights.aspxhttp://www.mba.org/ResearchandForecasts/MCAI.htmhttps://www.mba.org/news-research-and-resources/forecasts-data-and-reports/single-family-research/mortgage-credit-availability-indexhttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/feb_2016_public_outlook.pdfhttp://www.quickenloans.com/press-room/2016/02/09/homeowner-expectation-of-value-nearing-appraiser-valuation/http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nearly-half-of-all-us-homeowners-expect-equity-gains-in-2016-despite-strong-increases-since-2013-300223529.html

Resources

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

Slide Slide Title Link

37 Median Asking Rent http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html

39, 40 Bankrate Study http://www.bankrate.com/finance/consumer-index/money-pulse-0216.aspx

41, 43 Fannie Mae Quotes http://pages.exacttarget.com/page.aspx?QS=5c591a8916642e73f9602939b8b6886e83a1aabd8dbab4c885ea7a0b8760057d#bookmark1-2

42 Ellie Mae FICO Scores http://www.elliemae.com/origination-insight-reports/Ellie_Mae_OIR_JANUARY2016.pdf

45 Will Mortgage Rates Go? http://www.inman.com/special-report/whats-next-2016-industry-outlook-report/

46 30-Year Fixed Rate http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

47 Mortgage Rate Projectionshttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/feb_2016_public_outlook.pdfhttp://http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_021716.pdfhttp://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2016/embargoes/phs-2-29/forecast-02-2016-us-economic-outlook-02-29-2016.pdfhttps://www.mba.org/Documents/Mtg%20Fin%20Forecast%20Feb%202016.pdf

48 Freddie Mac http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/ehforecast.html

50 Ellie Mae Closing Times http://elliemae.com/origination-insight-reports/Ellie_Mae_OIR_JANUARY2016.pdf

51 HPSI Update http://www.fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/media/corporate-news/2016/6346.html

53-54, 55-57, 58, 59, 60-63, 64-66, 68

EHS, Pending Home Sales, % Change in Sales, % Distressed Properties, Inventory Levels, Foot Traffic, Existing Home Prices

http://www.realtor.org

69 & 70 Existing & New Homes Sales http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/

70, 72-74 New Home Sales http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf

75 First Time Homebuyers http://www.housingrisk.org/

79 Gallup Poll http://www.gallup.com/poll/1654/honesty-ethics-professions.aspx

80 Sale Lion Quote http://www.shweiki.com/blog/2016/01/content-marketing-where-do-i-start/

http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.htmlhttp://www.bankrate.com/finance/consumer-index/money-pulse-0216.aspxhttp://pages.exacttarget.com/page.aspx?QS=5c591a8916642e73f9602939b8b6886e83a1aabd8dbab4c885ea7a0b8760057d#bookmark1-2http://www.elliemae.com/origination-insight-reports/Ellie_Mae_OIR_JANUARY2016.pdfhttp://www.inman.com/special-report/whats-next-2016-industry-outlook-report/http://www.freddiemac.com/pmmshttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/feb_2016_public_outlook.pdfhttp://http/www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_021716.pdfhttp://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2016/embargoes/phs-2-29/forecast-02-2016-us-economic-outlook-02-29-2016.pdfhttps://www.mba.org/Documents/Mtg%20Fin%20Forecast%20Feb%202016.pdfhttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/ehforecast.htmlhttp://elliemae.com/origination-insight-reports/Ellie_Mae_OIR_JANUARY2016.pdfhttp://www.fanniemae.com/portal/about-us/media/corporate-news/2016/6346.htmlhttp://www.realtor.org/http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/http://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdfhttp://www.housingrisk.org/http://www.gallup.com/poll/1654/honesty-ethics-professions.aspxhttp://www.shweiki.com/blog/2016/01/content-marketing-where-do-i-start/

Gallup

How would you rate thehonesty & ethical standards

of people in real estate?

Chart1

0.53

0.02

0.18

0.2

0.05

0.02

Series 1

Sheet1

Series 1

Average53%

Very High2%

High18%

Low20%

Very Low5%

No Opinion2%


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MARCH 2016

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