March 2013 Gaëtan Siew CEO GLOBAL CITIES Influence & Change to/from Asian Community “What is a...
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Transcript of March 2013 Gaëtan Siew CEO GLOBAL CITIES Influence & Change to/from Asian Community “What is a...
March 2013 Gaëtan Siew CEO
GLOBAL CITIESInfluence & Change to/from Asian Community
“What is a city, but the people?” Coriolanus – Shakespeare - 1608
Key Points
1. Importance of Cities2. Drivers3. Development Pathways4. Urban World in 20255. Stress on Cities6. Lessons
Challenging World – Importance of Cities World – 600 Cities600 Cities : Population > 0.75mAverage City : 2.50 m2012: 21 Mega-cities > 10.0 m2025 : 29 Mega-cities > 10.0 mTop Urban growth: (Cn, In, US, Ni, Bd, Br)
World 2050 = 9 bn 75% Urban – Now 50%++Cities 66% world energy usageCities 80% world emissions
Belo Horizonte = 2.50 m
Challenges•Rapid Urban Growth•Pressure on resources ( Energy/Water)•Capacity to absorb Pollution/Waste
Challenging World – Importance of Cities
Mumbai = 20.50 m
Challenging World – Importance of Cities
Opportunities•New business models•Ability to impact on maximum population
• Targeted• Smart level of investment
Scale of intervention• More effective to address resource
management• Water & Energy• Air & Waste Management• City level instead regional/national levels
Luanda= 5.2 m
Challenging World – Importance of Cities
Opportunities
Cities impose own policies & regulationsSocio-economic – Environmental Responsive to infrastructure developmentMitigating effects of pollutionPower and water shortagesClimate change control
Copenhagen = 2,6 m2011 only electric /H² cars2025 First carbon neutral capital
Drivers of City Development
•People•Energy
CREATIVE CITIESDiversity – Quality of Life
HNWI : Expats Assets > 1 m $2011 = 11 m >>> 43 tn $
Drivers of City Development
•People•Energy
ENERGY USAGE FACTORS• Climate• Economic activity• Geography• Income disparities• Population• Urban Design
Amsterdam = 2.3mSmart City initiative Energy efficient in EUBiomass /biogas from waste/sewage into heat and electricity.
Los Angeles = 17.80mCity Sprawling
Huge Consumers• Large Cities• Prosperous
Cities• Sprawling Cities
Amsterdam = 2.3 m
Drivers of City Development
•Six City Archetypes
UNDER-PRIVILEDGED CROWDED CITIESLagos, Manila, Lima
UNDEVELOPED URBAN CENTRESMarrakech, Belgrade, Panama
Marrakech = 1.06 m
URBAN POWERHOUSESHong Kong, Singapore, Bangalore
Drivers of City Development
•Six City Archetypes
PROSPEROUS COMMUNITIESAmsterdam,Copenhagen
SPRAWLING METROPOLISParis, Houston
Buenos Aires = 14.64m
DEVELOPING MEGA-HUBSBuenos Aires, Hangzhou
Development PathwaysSix Pathways
EMERGING NATIONS
POPULATION & CONSUMPTION GROWTHby 2025
Industrialisation & Modernisation
Controlled Urbanisation
Late Stage Growth
Slum ProliferationUrban DeclineTransition to Megacity
Manila = 20.65m
Urban World 2025
•2010 - 2025
PROSPEROUS COMMUNITIESFrom 127 to 150 nos Especially Asian cities
SPRAWLING METROPOLISUp to 50 nos – Cities richer
Chongqing= 32.0 m
Mexico City = 21.2m
Urban World 2025
•2010 - 2025
URBAN POWERHOUSES x 2++
14 nos in China, IndiaUNDER-PRIVILEDGED CROWDED CITIES30 nos – Decreasing as Asia gets richer
UNDEVELOPED URBAN CENTRESFast developing & Unpredictable
Dhaka= 15.41 m
Bangkok = 8.28 m
Bangalore = 8.43 m
Urban World 2025
•2010 - 2025
660 Cities = 65% GDP >> 30 tn $
FLOOR SPACECities >> +85% more = Austria 84 000 km²E Cities >> 44 000 km² / 80 tn $
440 E Cities = 47% GDP >> 23 tn $440 E Cities = Annual increase + 10 tn $
84 000 sq.km
• Can they all be fitted in that?
Stresses on CitiesUNIVERSAL•Energy Price•Adequate Infrastructure Investment•Public Amenity
ENERGY PRICE• Higher demand• Fiscal restructuring• Emission pricing• Renewable portfolio standards• Fuel price increase
*E –Cities ( Gov subsidy – Challenge in future)
FACTORS•Climate•Geography•Economic Status
Top Green Cities• Reyjavik 99.9% green electricity• San Francisco Energy, green bldgs, transport, air/water
quality• Malmö 3rd largest wind energy park• Vancouver Clean tech innovation, 90% renewable power• Portland 25% public transport, bicycles• Curitiba 70% land recycled – 1.5m trees• Copenhagen 50% bicycles - world leader wind energy• Stockholm 40% city = green spaces• Hamburg Strong port and industrial policies• Bogota Air quality, water supplies, 1200 urban spaces
Curitiba 1.3m
Stresses on Cities
UNIVERSAL•Energy Price•Adequate Infrastructure Investment•Public Amenity
ADEQUATE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT• End of life cycles : Cities of 60s & 70s• Replacement costs
*E-Cities : Finding ways to pay >> Challenge
Stresses on Cities
UNIVERSAL•Energy Price•Adequate Infrastructure Investment•Public Amenity
PUBLIC AMENITY• Public expectation >> Livability• Better environmental standards• Advanced solutions (Ex Low CO2 >> Coal)
*Rich Cities: Opposition to infrastructure projects(Ex Wind farms, roads, airports etc)Noise – Visually- Pollution
New York Hi Line
Stresses on Cities
UNIVERSAL•Energy Price•Adequate Infrastructure Investment•Public Amenity
PUBLIC AMENITY• Art • A sense of belonging• A sense of pride
“When the city ceases to be a symbol of art and order,it acts in a negative fashion.”Lewis Mumford
Shi SheiObrigado
GratiasMerci
SpasibaThank youShoukran
Gaëtan Siew CEO www.gsiew-gcli.org
“What is a city but the people.” Coriolanus 1608
Shakespeare (UK)