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Transcript of March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at...
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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Field Research Corporation
The Growing Importance ofEthnic Voters in California Elections
- presented by
Mark DiCamillo
Director, The Field Poll
- to -
New America Media
Ethnic Media Training Session
University of California, Office of the President
March 1, 2012
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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1Field Research Corporation
Californias Changing RegisteredVoter Population
During the past 12 years Californias registered voter rolls have increasedby over 1.3 million, all of it coming from the states ethnic voterpopulations.
Over this period, the proportion of Californias registered voters who are
Latino increased from a 16% to 22% share.
Total registered voters 15,707 100% 17,028 100% +1,321,000
White non-Hispanic 11,307 72% 10,900 64% -407,000Latino 2,500 16% 3,800 22% +1,300,000African-American 1,000 6% 950 6% -50,000Asian-American/other 900 6% 1,378 8% +478,000
2000 2012(in 000s) % (in 000s) % Change
*Less than of 1%.
Source: Totals are from the California Secretary of State. All other figures are Field Poll estimates.
Table 1
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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2Field Research Corporation
Party Registration Differences in California RegisteredVoter Population by Race/Ethnicity
Table 2
Democrats(44%)
Republicans(30%)
Non-partisan/other parties(26%)
Total
Whitenon-Hispanics Latino
African-American
Asian-American
25%
37%
38%
26%
56%
18%
16%
79%
5%
34%
40%
26%
Source: Field Poll estimates.
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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3Field Research Corporation
Age Differences in California RegisteredVoters by Race/Ethnicity
Table 3
30%
26%
44%
(33%) 18 39
(44%) 40 64
(23%) 65 or older
Whitenon-Hispanics Latino
African-American
Asian-American
9%
50%
41%
24%
27%
49%
17%
36%
47%
Source: Field Poll estimates.
Total
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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4Field Research Corporation
Regional Differences in California RegisteredVoter Population by Race/Ethnicity
Table 4
Whitenon-Hispanics Latino
African-American
Asian-American
Source: Field Poll estimates.
(17%) Central Valley
(5%) Other Northern CA
(14%) Other Southern CA
(20%) San Francisco Bay Area
(18%) South Coast
(26%) Los Angeles
Total
7%
20%
22%
18%
19%
14%
3%
40%
12%
15%
15%
15%
2%
34%
20%
15%
12%
17%
4%
24%
27%
15%
20%
10%
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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5Field Research Corporation
9%
39%
20%
31%
9%
23%
28%
40%
Household Income Differences in CaliforniaRegistered Voter Population by Race/Ethnicity
Table 5
Less than $40,000(30%)
$40,000 - $79,999(28%)
$80,000 or over
(33%)
Whitenon-Hispanics Latino
African-American
Asian-American
Source: Field Poll estimates, 2010.
Not reported(9%)
9%
48%
24%
19%
16%
30%
32%
22%
Total
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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6Field Research Corporation
2008 Obama D +24 1976 Ford R -2
2004 Kerry D +10 1972 Nixon R -13
2000 Gore D +12 1968 Nixon R -3
1996 Clinton D +13 1964 Johnson D +18
1992 Clinton D +13 1960 Nixon R -0.5
1988 Bush R -4 1956 Eisenhower R -111984 Reagan R -16 1952 Eisenhower R -14
1980 Reagan R -17 1948 Truman D +0.5
The History of Presidential Election Outcomesin California (1948-present)
Table 6
Democratic DemocraticWinner Party Margin Winner Party Margin
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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8Field Research Corporation
California Voters Views of the Job Performanceof President Barack Obama by Race/Ethnicity
Table 8
Approve Disapprove
66%
53%
46%
75%
64%
25%
39%
47%
11%
30%Latino
Asian-American
White non-Hispanic
African-American
Race/ethnicity
Total registered voters
Source: February 2012 Field Poll.
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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9Field Research Corporation
California Voter Inclination to Re-Elect Barack Obamaas President by Race/Ethnicity
Table 9
Inclined Not inclined
62%
51%
41%
83%
67%
28%
41%
52%
16%
23%Latino
Asian-American
White non-Hispanic
African-American
Race/ethnicity
Total registered voters
Source: February 2012 Field Poll.
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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12Field Research Corporation
California Voter Views About the NationsHealth Reform Law by Race/Ethnicity
Table 12
55%
52%
46%
70%
65%
35%
37%
44%
23%
20%Latino
Asian-American
White non-Hispanic
African-American
Race/ethnicity
Total registered voters
Source: February 2011 Field-TCWF Health Policy Poll for The California Wellness Foundation.
Support Oppose
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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13Field Research Corporation
Voter Preferences Regarding Possible Statewide BallotInitiatives on Taxes for the November 2012 General Election
1. California Federation of Teachers Millionaires Tax Initiative
Table 13
68%
63%
59%
80%
73%
29%
31%
35%
17%
23%Latino
Asian-American
White non-Hispanic
African-American
Race/ethnicity
Total registered voters
Source: February 2012 Field Poll.
Yes No
Inclined to vote
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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14Field Research Corporation
Voter Preferences Regarding Possible Statewide BallotInitiatives on Taxes for the November 2012 General Election
2. Governor Browns Tax Increase Initiative
Table 14
65%
58%
54%
61%
68%
28%
36%
40%
32%
28%Latino
Asian-American
White non-Hispanic
African-American
Race/ethnicity
Total registered voters
Source: February 2012 Field Poll.
Yes No
Inclined to vote
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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15Field Research Corporation
Voter Preferences Regarding Possible Statewide BallotInitiatives on Taxes for the November 2012 General Election
3. Munger Tax Increase Initiative
Table 15
62%
45%
36%
68%
60%
38%
48%
56%
22%
36%Latino
Asian-American
White non-Hispanic
African-American
Race/ethnicity
Total registered voters
Source: February 2012 Field Poll.
Yes No
Inclined to vote
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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16Field Research Corporation
Table 16
30%
24%
16%
54%
34%
44%
51
59%
26%
44%Latino
Asian-American
White non-Hispanic
African-American
Race/ethnicity
Total registered voters
Source: November 2011 Field Poll.
Goes too farStrikes the
right balance
California Voter Opinions about Governor BrownsPublic Pension Reform Proposal by Race/Ethnicity
Doesnt go
far enough
19%
13%
13%
13%
14%
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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17Field Research Corporation
California Voter Preferences for the Sentencing of SomeoneConvicted of First-Degree Murder by Race/Ethnicity
Table 17
43%
48%
45%
66%
55%
38%
40%
42%
24%
37%Latino
Asian-American
White non-Hispanic
African-American
Race/ethnicity
Total registered voters
Source: September 2011 Field Poll.
Life in prisonwithout parole
Deathpenalty
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7/31/2019 March 1, 2012: Growing Importance of Ethnic Voters by Mark DiCamillo, Director, The Field Poll at NAM Workshop on Governance, 2012 Elections Reporting Training
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18Field Research Corporation
California Voter Opinions About Allowing Same-Sex Couples to Marry by Race/Ethnicity and Age
Table 18
Source: February 2012 Field Poll.
* Small sample base.
Approve Disapprove
42%
59%
64%
52%
73%
69%
45%
65%
41%
47%
34%
30%
41%
21%
26%
45%
32%
52%
Age 18 39
Age 65+*
White non-Hispanic (total)
Age 40 64
Race/ethnicity by age
Total registered voters
Age 18 39
Ethnic voters (total)
Age 40 64
Age 65+