Marc Scheibel, Paula Lorza - BINGO€¦ · Paula Lorza - Tel. +49-202/583-333 - Mobile:...
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Application of reanalysis products and decadal predictions at the Wupper River Basin, Germany Marc Scheibel, Paula Lorza Contacts: Marc Scheibel - Tel. +49-202/583-246 - Mobile: +49-160/989-322-21 - Email: [email protected] Paula Lorza - Tel. +49-202/583-333 - Mobile: +49-160/963-437-03 - Email: [email protected] Wupperverband - Untere Lichtenplatzer Str. 100 - 42289 Wuppertal, Germany Context • In the frame of the Horizon 2020 project BINGO (Bringing INnovation to onGOing water management), the impacts of climate change on the water cycle in the Wupper River catchment area are being currently investigated. On one hand, dry periods affect fresh water supply reliability; on the other hand, flash floods during summer periods are the most expected (and already experienced) effects. Application of future climate scenarios / realisations for flood and reservoir management (i.e., MiKlip, ReKliEs-De) Identification of past weather extremes / anomalies (flood and dry periods) described by indicators and thresholds Related trends for the past and the future as an input (effects) for the decision making process of measures Enhancement of the operational forecasting model a Objectives Methodology • Comparison of hydro meteorological time series a) historical and b) climate realisation based data with different bias corrections Hydrological modelling (sub-catchment based) with all sets of data and land-use / water-use scenarios Analysing the effects on the water balance and demands for the past and in the future and comparison of trends Application of indices to establish initial conditions, thresholds and possible trends for prediction in an operational model Floods and flash floods • Comparison of different bias-corrections • Drought scenarios • June 2011 June 2018 (Realisation 1) Despite quantitative differences in precipitation, the simulations of the hydrological models show a good agreement with respect to peak flow occurrence; general signals of extreme events within the predictions models seem to be reasonable Preliminary results First approaches with historical and climate realisations (not bias corrected yet) to estimate Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) – picture left shows the effect on the “Große Dhünn” reservoir after a three-year dry period in 2015 NASIM / TALSIM are lumped (sub- catchment based) water balance models. Surface runoff is estimated based on water balance equation, considering evapotranspiration, infiltration, runoff, interflow (fast and slow), and baseflow. Hydrological models Simulations with ground precipitation stations and downscaled ERA-Interim precipitation time series (not bias-corrected and bias-corrected) Structure and signal of an historical event (left) compared to results from dynamical downscaled climate models (right)
Transcript of Marc Scheibel, Paula Lorza - BINGO€¦ · Paula Lorza - Tel. +49-202/583-333 - Mobile:...
Application of reanalysis products and decadal predictions at the Wupper River Basin, Germany
Marc Scheibel, Paula Lorza
Contacts: Marc Scheibel - Tel. +49-202/583-246 - Mobile: +49-160/989-322-21 - Email: [email protected] Lorza - Tel. +49-202/583-333 - Mobile: +49-160/963-437-03 - Email: [email protected] - Untere Lichtenplatzer Str. 100 - 42289 Wuppertal, Germany
Context•In the frame of the Horizon 2020 project BINGO (Bringing
INnovation to onGOing water management), the impacts ofclimate change on the water cycle in the Wupper River catchmentarea are being currently investigated. On one hand, dry periodsaffect fresh water supply reliability; on the other hand, flashfloods during summer periods are the most expected (and alreadyexperienced) effects.
Application of future climate scenarios / realisations for flood and reservoir management (i.e., MiKlip, ReKliEs-De)
Identification of past weather extremes / anomalies (flood and dry periods) described by indicators and thresholds
Related trends for the past and the future as an input (effects) for the decision making process of measures
Enhancement of the operational forecasting model
a
Objectives
Methodology• Comparison of hydro meteorological time series a) historical and b) climate realisation based data with different bias corrections
Hydrological modelling (sub-catchment based) with all sets of data and land-use / water-use scenarios Analysing the effects on the water balance and demands for the past and in the future and comparison of trends Application of indices to establish initial conditions, thresholds and possible trends for prediction in an operational model
Floods and flash floods•
Comparison of different bias-corrections•
Drought scenarios•
June 2011 June 2018(Realisation 1)
Despite quantitative differences in precipitation, the simulations of the hydrological models show a good agreement with respectto peak flow occurrence; general signals of extreme events within the predictions models seem to be reasonable
Preliminary results
First approaches with historical and climate realisations (not bias corrected yet) to estimate Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) – picture left shows the effect on the “Große Dhünn” reservoir after a three-year dry period in 2015
NASIM / TALSIM are lumped (sub-catchment based) water balance models. Surface runoff is estimated based on water balance equation, considering evapotranspiration, infiltration, runoff, interflow (fast and slow), and baseflow.
Hydrological models
Simulations with ground precipitation stations and downscaled ERA-Interim precipitation time series (not bias-corrected and bias-corrected)
Structure and signal of an historical event (left) compared to results from dynamical downscaled climate models (right)
