Mapping Vulnerability and Resilience for Ecosystem Based Approaches to AdaptationKeith Alversonkeith.alverson@unep.orgwww.unep.org/climatechange/adaptation/

UN System Side Event. UNFCCC COP 19

Warsaw, 16 November, 2013

IPCC AR5. No Mountains. Africa is whiter than the Ocean!

IPCC AR5 - Regional is interesting. No ecozones (eg mountains).

Mountain ecosystem goods and services

© Zoi Environment Network

• Mountain regions have the highest regional natural variability in

weather in climate in the world

• Mountain ecosystems (and communities) are thus inherently

among the most highly resilient to climatic stress.

• At the same time, because global warming can literally push

climatic zones off the top of mountains, they can be among the

most vulnerable (locally, conditions become outside the envelope).

• Despite this apparent contradiction. Mountains provide an

excellent testbed for ecosystem (and community) based

adaptation approaches.

Mountains and SDGsJoint initiative in the framework of the

Mountain Partnership towards mainstreaming mountains into the SDGs, following UNEP’s integrative approach.

Objective: Promote Sustainable Mountain Development in the context of SDG development and implementation.

Outputs: Policy brief development- Energy – 25-27 November 2013- Climate Change and DRR – 6-10 January

2014- Forests and Biodiversity – 3-7 February

2014

UNEP in the Mountains

• Partnership of UNEP, IUCN & UNDP under broader EBA flagship programme, current focus on Mountains in Peru, Nepal & Uganda;

• Partnership with UNESCO on Mountain matters globally;

• Leading the development of the first Africa Mountains Atlas due 2014.

• Andes component of REGATTA project

“Climate change action in developing countries with fragile mountainous ecosystems from a regional perspective”

2014-2017, Total: 1.75 Mio EUR financed by Austria

- Support to mountainous developing countries to integrate climate change adaptation into development policies/plans/strategies

- Understand vulnerabilities and impacts- trigger policy action

Main activities:

Understand and map vulnerabilities and impacts Establish regional cooperation platforms Develop climate change outlooks (participatory assessments)

Climate Change Vulnerability Methodological FrameworkUNEP REGATTA Initiative. Andes Case Studies.

Municipalities most Exposed to Climate Change and Adaptive Capacity Indicators in Ecuador

PROVINCIA CANTONRelative

Crop Loss

Population Employed

in Agriculture

RoadsPopulation in School

Rural Population

Rural Iliteracy

Unsatisfied Basic Needs

Index(rural)

MigrationPopulation

Density

LOJA PINDAL 78% 26% 62% 7% 2.14 10% 61% -2 42.80LOJA SOZORANGA 67% 20% 72% 7% 1.99 8% 56% -11.2 18.10LOJA CELICA 43% 17% 60% 8% 3.04 9% 56% -2.4 27.70LOJA CATAMAYO 40% 12% 83% 9% 2.87 7% 48% 0.1 47.00LOJA GONZANAMÁ 33% 14% 82% 7% 3.88 10% 54% -17.31 18.21TUNGURAHUA BAÑOS DE AGUA SANTA 33% 4% 66% 10% 3.30 6% 45% 1.32 18.78AZUAY SANTA ISABEL 27% 14% 47% 7% 5.13 9% 55% -2.1 30.40LOJA CALVAS 18% 10% 100% 9% 4.82 10% 58% -9.59 33.51LOJA MACARA 18% 13% 58% 9% 2.18 8% 56% -5.17 33.03CHIMBORAZO PALLATANGA 12% 18% 100% 6% 2.90 19% 62% -9.24 30.46BOLIVAR SAN MIGUEL 11% 14% 86% 8% 7.01 11% 55% -9.9 47.50CHIMBORAZO ALAUSI 8% 7% 59% 5% 14.44 28% 60% -11.8 26.6BOLIVAR GUARANDA 8% 10% 89% 7% 25.93 24% 61% -10.8 48.5IMBABURA IBARRA 8% 6% 89% 10% 18.86 12% 41% 0.5 165.7COTOPAXI PUJILI 6% 9% 67% 6% 22.96 28% 61% -10.5 53

SubsistenceIncome Biophysical and Social Sensitivity in Colombia

EXAMPLEEcosystem

Based Adaptation in

Mountain Ecosystems

Nepal, Peru & Uganda

13

Geographic distribution of EBA studies

Source: Munroe et al. 2011

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Synergies of EbA with other approaches

• Overlaps with disaster risk management, community based natural resource management, REDD+,

• Mix of human needs & environmental sustainability

• Strong local-level synergies

Adapted from Midgley et al. 2012

Nor Yauyos, Peru

Mount Elgon

Ecosystem Based Adaptation in Mountain Ecosystems Programme

• Partnership of UNEP, IUCN & UNDP under broader EBA flagship programme

• BMU provided 10 million Euro for Mountain Ecosystems Programme (+1.5 million 2014!)

• Steered by Global Steering Committee• Dec 2010 – Dec 2015• Pilot phase: Nepal, Peru & Uganda.• Broader learning for other mountain areas and

countries to be added in next phase

Take Home Messages• Ecosystem based approaches can be both

build resilience to climate change and deliver multiple benefits.

• Don’t adapt to Global averages Focus on local, regional and hydrological impacts and Societal Variables.

• Climate adaptation is not separable from sustainable mountain development.Integrate and mainstream CCA policies.

Thank You….