The Potential Environmental Impacts of Full Development of the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania Sep 2016

IRM-2016-U-013695

Map Set 4: Impact on Air Emissions This series of maps displays information related to the potential environmental impacts of additional gas development in Pennsylvania if all remaining technically

recoverable resources in the Interior Marcellus shale were developed using high volume hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling with eight wells per well pad.

This map set includes projections of air emissions of Nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile

organic compounds (VOCs), and methane (CH4) associated with activities associated

with pre-production, production, and compression and transport during the gas development process. (The activities only include those that support the well drilling, fracturing, production, and compression processes up to when produced gas is delivered through the gathering line to the larger gas transmission network. Emissions associated with transmission pipelines and delivery of gas to customers are not included.) These estimates are presented as the highest annual average emissions in tons per year for the combination of these activities (i.e. when ongoing emissions from producing wells peak), assuming a constant development rate over 30 years. The emissions estimates are aggregated by county and compared to 2014 natural gas sector emissions reported to the PA Department of Environmental Protection.

Note: These maps contain projections of natural gas development and associated impacts under a particular set of circumstances and assumptions. Changes to the assumptions could change the results. They are not predictions of development or impacts, and should not be used for commercial purposes, to guide investment decisions, or for short-range planning decisions. Furthermore, the maps should not be used to inform planning or decision making for geographic units smaller than the primary units of analysis (counties or HUC-10 watersheds).

Air Emissions Maps

This map set includes projections of the following air emissions impacts:

4.1 NOx emissions from projected development

4.2 VOC emissions from projected development

4.3 Methane emissions from projected development

For additional documentation and methodology used to create these maps, as well as discussion of results, please download the research report at: www.cna.org/PA-Marcellus

O hi o

O hi o

N e w Y o r kN e w Y o r k

W e s t V i r g i n i aW e s t V i r g i n i a M a r y l a n dM a r y l a n d

N e w J

e rs e

y

N e w J

e rs e

y

D e l a w a r eD e l a w a r e

66

947947

441441 210210

657657

191191

1,7011,701 1313

2,6012,601

1,9831,983

1,5261,5261,7501,750

8989

1,9511,951698698

9191

1,1191,119

2,8662,866

1,7371,737

1,4091,409

2,0092,009

1,2531,253

1,2611,261

2482481,1901,190

1,8481,848

648648

1,7591,759

482482

1,0751,075

306306

1,1061,106

628628

508508

1,3861,386

Elk

TiogaPotter

CentreButler

Bradford

Pike

Bedford

Clinton

Lycoming

Blair

Clearfield

Luzerne

Somerset

McKean

Indiana

Fayette

Wayne

Clarion

Cambria

Greene

Forest

Jefferson

Venango

Allegheny

Westmoreland

Beaver

Susquehanna

Sullivan

Washington

Armstrong

Columbia

WyomingCameronLackawanna

Annual NOx Emissions by County

Yearly NOx (tons/yr)

2,000

NOx_2014FinalYr_NOx

% of 2014 NOx EmissionsNo development (32)< 50% (2)51% - 100% (3)101% - 250% (7)251% - 500% (4)> 501% (14)New development (5)

This map shows the annual NOx emissions from projected well development, based on a constant rate 30-year build-out. This metric represents the highest annual combination ofNOx emissions from new development (e.g. drilling, fracking) andongoing emissions (e.g. compressor stations) for producing wells.We estimated these emissions based on factors from the 2014 PA DEP inventory and scientific literature, and compare to 2014 natural gas sector NOx emissions by county.

Marcellus Formation Extent

Interior MarcellusBoundary

0 40 8020Miles

Map 4.1 - NOx Emissions from Projected Development

Statewide Impact - NOx Emissions from Natural Gas Development Current: Projection:

21,662 tons/yr (2014 PA DEP Inventory)37,048 tons/yr (avg. new development + highest ongoing)

Projected2014 data

(labels show projected)

NOx = Nitrogen oxides

O hi o

O hi o

N e w Y o r kN e w Y o r k

W e s t V i r g i n i aW e s t V i r g i n i a M a r y l a n dM a r y l a n d

N e w J

e rs e

y

N e w J

e rs e

y

D e l a w a r eD e l a w a r e

Elk

Tioga

Potter

CentreButler

Bradford

Pike

Bedford

ClintonLycoming

Blair

Clearfield

Luzerne

Somerset

McKean

Indiana

Fayette

Wayne

Clarion

Cambria

Greene

Forest

Washington

Jefferson

Venango

Allegheny

Westmoreland

ArmstrongBeaver

Susquehanna

SullivanWyoming

Columbia

Cameron Lackawanna4488

934934

350350

322322 131131

403403

119119842842

1,0541,054997997

782782

908908

1,3901,390

1,2131,213

811811

1,1071,107

5555

1,2431,243 477477

689689

6363

750750

1,5521,552

854854

1,2181,218

1,2331,233

154154

1,1521,152

404404

1,1191,119

262262

213213

377377317317

Annual VOC Emissions by CountyYearly VOC (tons/yr)

790

VOC (2014)Projected

% of 2014 VOC EmissionsNo development (32)< 50% (1)51% - 100% (2)101% - 250% (2)251% - 500% (5)> 501% (19)New development (6)

This map shows the annual VOC emissions from projected well development, based on a constant rate 30-year build-out. This metric represents the highest annual combination ofVOCemissions from new development (e.g. drilling, fracking) andongoing emissions (e.g. compressor stations) for producing wells.We estimated these emissions based on factors from the 2014 PA DEP inventory and scientific literature, and compare to 2014 natural gas sector VOC emissions by county.

Marcellus Formation Extent Interior Marcellus

Boundary

0 40 8020Miles

Map 4.2 - Annual VOC Emissions from Projected Development

Statewide Impact - VOC Emissions from Natural Gas Development Current: Projection:

6,388 tons/yr (2014 PA DEP Inventory)22,527 tons/yr (avg. new development + highest ongoing)

(labels show projected)

VOC = Volatile Organic Compounds

O hi o

O hi o

N e w Y o r kN e w Y o r k

W e s t V i r g i n i aW e s t V i r g i n i a M a r y l a n dM a r y l a n d

N e w J

e rs e

y

N e w J

e rs e

y

D e l a w a r eD e l a w a r e

Elk

Tioga

Potter

CentreButler

Bradford

Pike

Bedford

ClintonLycoming

Blair

Clearfield

Luzerne

Somerset

McKean

Indiana

Fayette

Wayne

Clarion

Cambria

Greene

Forest

Washington

Jefferson

Venango

Allegheny

Westmoreland

ArmstrongBeaver

Susquehanna

SullivanWyoming

Columbia

Cameron Lackawanna4545

4,6294,629

4,2814,281

17,61017,610

1,8131,813

4,7544,754 22,42322,423

16,00816,008

14,58814,588

1,6481,6489,4769,476

14,16214,162

16,96816,968

110110

8,9118,911 613613

20,31020,310

6,4196,41916,31616,316

13,43313,433

26,63226,632

751751 15,98415,984

2,1422,142

5,6035,603

2,8632,863

10,02210,022

9,1009,100

10,57310,573

9,4549,454

14,55214,552

11,35411,354

3,3743,3747,2547,254

3,5083,508

Annual Methane (CH4) Emissions by CountyYearly CH4 (tons/yr)

13,000

CH4 (2014)Projected

% of 2014 CH4 emissionsNo development (32)< 50% (1)51% - 100% (1)101% - 250% (7)251% - 500% (3)> 501% (17)New development (6)

This map shows the annual CH4 emissions from projected well development, based on a constant rate 30-year build-out. This metric represents the highest annual combination of CH4emissions from new development (e.g. drilling, fracking) andongoing emissions (e.g. compressor stations) for producing wells.We estimated these emissions based on factors from the 2014 PA DEP inventory and scientific literature, and compare to 2014 natural gas sector CH4 emissions by county.

Marcellus Formation Extent Interior Marcellus

Boundary

0 40 8020Miles

Map 4.3 - Annual CH4 Emissions from Projected Development

Statewide Impact - CH4 Emissions from Natural Gas Development Current: Projection:

107,492 tons/yr (2014 PA DEP Inventory)387,685 tons/yr (avg. new development + highest ongoing)

(labels show projected)