Manufacturing Cost Analysis by Display Technology · QHD smartphone display. > OLED material price...
Transcript of Manufacturing Cost Analysis by Display Technology · QHD smartphone display. > OLED material price...
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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. © 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Manufacturing Cost Analysis by Display Technology Jimmy Kim, Ph.D.
Principal Analyst / IHS Markit Technology
November 2nd, 2016
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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
LCD, OLED and Flexible
Mobile Display
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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
OLED trying to catch up LCD for high-resolution Cost gap getting narrower and higher pressure over LCD component supply chain
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Cost table of 5.5” QHD smartphone display
Items
LTPS
LCD
Gen 6
OLED
Gen 5.5 Gen 6
Material
Array $0.4 $0.5 $0.4
Cell $0.7 $3.8 $3.2
Module $9.5 $6.1 $6.1
Non-Material $5.2 $9.4 $6.6
Total Manufacturing $15.8 $19.8 $16.4
Gap to LCD - X1.25
($4.0)
X1.03
($0.5)
Notes: Q3’16, non-material incl. labor, depreciation, etc. Touch module is not included.
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
Gen 6 Gen 5.5 Gen 6
LTPS LCD OLED
Array Mat. Cell Mat. Module Mat. Non-Mat.
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
LCD vs. OLED 5.5" QHD smartphone display
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How OLED cost can be lowered?
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• Material cost of OLED is estimated to almost catch up that of LCDs for 5.5” QHD smartphone display.
> OLED material price has been lowered consistently.
> No backlight for OLED
• Non-material factors become more critical.
> Manufacturing yield
> Utilization rate
> Substrate size (Fab Gen., quarter/half cut)
> Depreciation
$0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.0
LCD
AMOLED
Total cost Material cost
Material and total cost for OLED vs. LCD (5.5" QHD)
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
OLED manufacturing yield improvement
• Ratio of output panel display area to input glass substrate area must be highly related with manufacturing yield.
• SDC’s ratio was found to increase a lot in Q1’15. Then, continued to grow again right after a sudden drop in Q2’15.
> Q2’15’s declining must be due to MP start of A3.
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X0.35
X0.40
X0.45
X0.50
X0.55
X0.60
X0.65
X0.70
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200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2015 2016
ou
tpu
t/in
pu
t R
ati
o
Area (
00
0 s
q.m
ete
r)
Glass input
Display area output
Output/input ratio
SDC's output panel display area / input glass substrate area ratio trend
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
MP start of A3
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OLED shipment growth in entry segment
• Samsung raised VGA-graded panel shipments a lot in 2015, mainly helped by aggressive promotion toward China.
• Recent saturation of VGA-graded panel shipments looks maybe due to more capacity allocation for Samsung’s Galaxy series.
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2015 2016HD and above VGA VGA%
Samsung's product mix of AMOLED smartphone panel shipments
Source: IHS ? 2016 IHS
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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Utilization improvement with entry-segment growth
• As a result of promotion for Chinese customers, utilization rate of SDC’s AMOLED Fabs has been improved a lot since 2H’15.
> Various customers and wide product mix would help SDC to maintain high utilization.
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60.0%
65.0%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2(F)
2015 2016
SDC A2
SDC A3
Gen 5 average
Gen 6 average
Utilization trend of SDC OLED Fabs
Notes:
© 2016 IHS
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Effect of high utilization on OLED cost
• Cost may rise by ~10% when utilization is lowered to 80%
• Most of increase may be attributed to non-material part which includes most fixed items.
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1.03x 1.09x 1.16x 1.00x
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
70% 80% 90% 96.8%(Q2'16 level)
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g c
ost
Array Mat. Cell Mat. Module Mat. Non-Mat.Source: IHS
AMOLED 5"FHD panel cost by utilization rate
© 2016 IHS
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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Effect of substrate on OLED cost
• AMOLED cost varies a lot with substrate size and quarter/half cut for OLED process.
• Further cost saving is expected as MP in Gen 6 is stabilized.
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0.86x 0.82x 0.80x 1.09x 1.18x 1.00x
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
Half cut Full cut Quarter cut Full cut Half cut Full cut
Gen 4 (730x920) Gen 5.5 (1300x1500) Gen 6 (1500x1850)
Man
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rin
g c
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Array Mat. Cell Mat. Module Mat. Non-Mat.Source: IHS
AMOLED 5"FHD panel cost by substrate size
© 2016 IHS
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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Effect of depreciation on OLED cost
• Let’s imagine two line cases
> AMOLED: MP start on Q1’13 / LCD: MP start on Q1’15
• AMOLED has potential to show much lower cost after full-depreciation.
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0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
OL
ED
/LC
D c
ost
rati
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Man
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AMOLED LCD OLED/LCD
AMOLED vs. LCD 5.5"QHD panel manufacturing cost change by quarter
Notes: AMOLED in Gen 5.5 since Q2'11, LCD in Gen 6 since Q1'14 © 2016 IHS
Full-depreciation of AMOLED line
Full-depreciation of LCD line
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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Flexible OLED shows much higher manufacturing cost Estimated to have 20% gap to current rigid panel, even can be wider to 50%.
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Cost table of 5.5” QHD OLED smartphone display
Items
Rigid Flexible
Gen 6 Gen 5.5 Gen 6
Material
Array $0.5 $0.4 $0.7
OLED $3.5 $3.0 $3.8
Encap. $0.3 $0.2 $0.03
Module $6.1 $6.1 $10.0
Non-Material $9.4 $6.6 $9.6
Total Manufacturing $19.8 $16.4 $24.1
Flexible to Rigid
at different Gen X1.21 X1.47 -
Notes: Q3’16, non-material incl. labor, depreciation, etc., Touch module is not included.
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
$30.0
Gen 5.5 Gen 6 Gen 6
Rigid Flexible
Array Mat. OLED Mat. Encap. Mat. Module Mat. Non-Mat.
Source: IHS
Rigid vs. Flexible 5.5" QHD OLED smartphone display
© 2016 IHS
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Material cost increase in Flexible OLED
• Array material
> Differed by PI layer insertion. Carrier glass assumed to be non-recycled.
> Not a big portion gap observed, affected by price down of PI material.
• Encapsulation material
> Material cost of TFE can be lowered than glass frit + Encapsulation glass
• Module material
> Increase in PCB&others due to COF
> Lamination on curved surface may lower manufacturing yield a lot.
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Flexible
Rigid © 2016 IHS
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Emerging technology and OLED
TV Display
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Struggling premium LCD TVs
• UHD LCDs have helped to raise premium LCD shipments, but its driving force is declining.
• Meanwhile, portion of OLED TV shipments continues to increase in 2016.
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0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2013 2014 2015 2016
Sh
ipm
en
ts (
000)
OLED
LCD UHD
LCD FHD
OLED%
Shipments of premium TVs of price >$1,500
© 2016 IHS Source: IHS
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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
QD for premium LCD market Samsung has lowered QD sheet cost a lot with its captive supply chain.
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Cost table of 55” UHD ELED LCD TV
Items Typical
(72%)
QD
Sheet
Captive
(nonCd)
QD Merchant
(Cd)
Sheet Tube
Material
Array $24 $24 $24 $24
Cell $62 $64 $64 $64
Module $107 $152 $220 $135
Non-Material $52 $56 $63 $55
Total Manufacturing $244 $296 $371 $277
Gap to LCD - X1.21
($52)
X1.52
($127)
X1.13
($33)
Notes: Q3’16, Fully-depreciated Gen8 Fab case, non-material incl. labor, depreciation, etc.
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
Typical QD sheet(Captive)
QD sheet(Merchant)
QD tube(Merchant)
Array Mat. Cell Mat. Module Mat. Non-Mat.
Source: IHS
Typical vs. QD 55" UHD ELED LCD TV
© 2016 IHS
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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Alternative WCG
CGEF(Color Gamut Enhanced Film)
• Enhance the color by blocking yellow.
> Avoiding mix of RGB is important
> Similar effect like C/F tuning
• Easy to adopt for MP
> Minimum modification of BLU structure
> MP at Q3’15, right after only a few months’ development
• Recently, LAP(Light Absorption Polarizer) of similar function is newly introduced.
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CGEF’s cost competitiveness As QD price drops, its competitiveness looks weaker than last year.
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Cost table of 55” UHD LCD TV
Items
Typical
ELED
(72%)
CGEF
DLED
QD
DLED
QD
ELED
Captive
sheet Tube
Material
Array $24 $24 $24 $24
Cell $62 $64 $64 $62
Module $107 $109 $130 $147
Non-Material $52 $52 $54 $56
Total Manufacturing $244 $249 $272 $277
Gap to LCD - X1.02
($5)
X1.11
($27)
X1.13
($33)
Notes: Q3’16, Fully-depreciated Gen8 Fab case, non-material incl. labor, depreciation, etc.
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Typical ELED CGEF DLED QD DLED(Captive)
QD tube(Merchant)
Array Mat. Cell Mat. Module Mat. Non-Mat.
Source: IHS
QD vs CGEF 55" UHD LCD TV
© 2016 IHS
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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Alternative WCG
On-chip KSF
• Mn4+ red phosphor (so-called KSF) > Sharp red peak enables >90%NTSC
without any C/F tuning.
• Weak point due to long remnant light > Difficulties in SG 3D, Blinking 240Hz... > As 60Hz UHD becomes popular, the
weak point looks not so critical now. > No issue for mobile: iPhone7 adopts
• Able to be coated on chip directly. > Material consumption can be saved
when compared with sheet/tube type.
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KSF as new WCG light source KSF is a strong candidate for mid-segment WCG solution.
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Cost table of 55” UHD LCD TV
Items
Typical
ELED
(72%)
QD
DLED
CGEF
DLED
KSF
DLED
Material
Array $24 $24 $24 $24
Cell $62 $64 $64 $64
Module $107 $130 $109 $92
Non-Material $52 $54 $52 $50
Total Manufacturing $244 $272 $249 $230
Gap to LCD - X1.11
($27)
X1.02
($5)
X0.94
($14)
Notes: Q3’16, Fully-depreciated Gen8 Fab case, non-material incl. labor, depreciation, etc.
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
Typical ELED QD DLED CGEF DLED KSF DLED
Array Mat. Cell Mat. Module Mat. Non-Mat.
Source: IHS
55" UHD LCD TV with various WCGs
© 2016 IHS
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Can OLED survive as Special One? OLED is still expensive due to large investment and small production volume.
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Cost table of 55” UHD TV
Items
Finest LCD
OLED Curved
HDR QD
Super
Slim
Material
Array $25 $25 $50
Cell $67 $66 $277
Module $198 $159 $84
Non-Material $63 $61 $296
Total Manufacturing $353 $311 $708
OLED to LCD of
different tech.
X2.00
($355)
X2.28
($397)
Notes: Q3’16, Fully-depreciated Gen8 Fab case for LCD, non-material incl. labor, depreciation,
etc.
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
HDR QD Super Slim AMOLED
Array Mat. Cell Mat. Module Mat. Non-Mat.
Source: IHS
Add your title here in sentence case
Source: IHS
AMOLED vs Finest LCD 55" UHD TV
© 2016 IHS
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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
OLED cost by yield
• As yield of AMOLED improves, the cost gap will shrinks rapidly.
• However even under same yield condition, cost gap of 1.3X still remains due to large depreciation of OLED Fab.
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$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
Man
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Production Yield
55" UHD AMOLED manufacturing cost change by yield
Source: IHS ? 2015 IHS
Current state
Same yield as
LCD
LCD manufacturing cost
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© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
OLED cost by yield after full-depreciation
• Under same yield and full depreciation, cost gap with premium LCDs can be almost negligible.
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$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
Man
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Production Yield
55" UHD AMOLED manufacturing cost change by yield
Source: IHS ? 2015 IHS
Current state Same yield
as LCD
LCD manufacturing cost
-
© 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Need for larger OLED Fab Cost for 65” OLED panel jumps a lot due to low glass efficiency at Gen8 Fab.
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Cost table of 55” UHD ELED LCD TV
Items 55”
@Gen8
65”
@Gen8 @Gen10.5
Material
Array $50 $100 $68
Cell $277 $555 $354
Module $84 $98 $98
Non-Material $296 $575 $344
Total Manufacturing $708 $1,328 $864
. X1.88
($620)
X1.22
($156)
Notes: Q3’16, non-material incl. labor, depreciation, etc.
Source: IHS © 2016 IHS
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
55"@Gen 8 65"@Gen 8 65"@Gen 10.5
Array Mat. Cell Mat. Module Mat. Non-Mat.
Source: IHS ? 2016 IHS
Gen 8 vs Gen 10.5 for 65" OLED TV
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Wrap-Up
• Mobile display
> Cost of AMOLED has lowered a lot recently mainly helped by yield improvement and utilization increase with promotion to Chinese customers.
> Further improvement is expected with MP ramp-up in Gen 6 Fab and lowering depreciation cost.
• TV display
> Many of emerging technologies are competing against AMOLEDs
– Design: Curved, Super-slim / Picture quality: QD, WCG(KSF, CGEF), HDR
> UHD OLED technology improved a lot. However, top emission and substrate size will be the next hurdle for further improvement.
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Thank You
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