ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey United States Survey MAN… · Manufacturing, Other...

SMART JOB NO: 17823 QUARTER 3 2018

CLIENT: MANPOWER

SUBJECT: MEOS Q318 – UNITED STATES – TWO COLOUR – US LETTER SIZE

SIZE: US LETTER 279.4 x 215.9mm

DOC NAME: 17823_UNITEDSTATES_2COL_Q318 PAGE: 1

ARTWORK SIZE: 279.4mm x 215.9mm DATE: 23.05.18

87 CHARTERHOUSE STREET • LONDON EC1M 6HJ • TEL +44 (0)20 7553 4744

ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook SurveyUnited States

Q3 2018


CLIENT: MANPOWER






More than 11,500 interviews were conducted with employers within the United States, including all 50 states, the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, to measure hiring intentions between July and September 2018. The mix of industries within the survey follows the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) supersectors and is structured to be representative of the U.S. economy. All participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2018 compared to the current quarter?”

Contents

United States Employment Outlook 1Industry Sector ComparisonsRegional Comparisons Metropolitan Statistical Areas

Global Employment Outlook 8

About the Survey 9Uni

ted

Sta

tes

Em

plo

ymen

tO

utlo

ok

ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 1


CLIENT: MANPOWER






Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net EmploymentOutlook

SeasonallyAdjusted

% % % % % %

Quarter 3 2017

Quarter 4 2017

Quarter 1 2018

Quarter 2 2018

Quarter 3 2018

24 4 70 2

15

17

21 6 71 2

20

17

21 5 71 3 16 19

23 3 73 1 20 18

24 3 71 2 21 18

’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18

Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookNet Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

United States Employment Outlook

In the third quarter of 2018, 24 percent of U.S. employers expect to increase payrolls, while 3 percent anticipate a decrease and 71 percent expect no change in staffing levels.

Once the data is adjusted to account for seasonal variation, the Net Employment Outlook for the U.S as a whole is +18%. Hiring intentions are unchanged when compared with the previous quarter, and U.S. employers report an increase of 1 percentage point in comparison with this time one year ago.

Employers in the South report an improvement of 1 percentage point when compared with the second quarter of 2018, resulting in the strongest Outlook reported for the region in more than 10 years. Hiring prospects weaken in the remaining three U.S. regions. In the West, employers report a decline of 2 percentage

points, and Outlooks are 1 percentage point weaker in the Midwest and the Northeast. Steady payroll gains for the coming quarter are anticipated in the South and the Midwest, with Outlooks standing at +19%. Employers in the West expect a favorable hiring climate, reporting an Outlook of +17%. The Outlook for the Northeast stands at +16%.

In comparison with the previous quarter, hiring plans are slightly weaker in the West, and remain relatively stable in the Midwest, the Northeast and the South. When compared with this time one year ago, hiring prospects are slightly stronger in three regions—the Midwest, the Northeast and the South—and remain relatively stable in the West.

From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise.

Please note that throughout this report, the figure used in all graphs is the “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. In addition, percentage totals may not equal 100% due to rounding.

2 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey


CLIENT: MANPOWER






Employers in all 13 nationwide industry sectors expect to add to payrolls during Quarter 3 2018: Leisure & Hospitality (+27%), Professional & Business Services (+22%), Transportation & Utilities (+22%), Wholesale & Retail Trade (+22%), Mining (+20%), Construction (+19%), Durable Goods Manufacturing (+19%), Financial Activities (+16%), Nondurable Goods Manufacturing (+16%), Education & Health Services (+14%), Government (+14%), Information (+13%), Other Services (+11%).

Nationally, employers in the Mining sector report the strongest hiring pace in more than three years—the Outlook for the sector improves moderately when compared with the second quarter of 2018. Slightly stronger hiring intentions are reported in the Nondurable Goods Manufacturing and Transportation & Utilities

Industry Sector Comparisonssectors. In the Construction sector, employers report a slight quarter-over-quarter improvement, and hiring plans are the strongest reported in more than 11 years.

Hiring intentions remain relatively stable in eight of the 13 national industry sectors, when compared with Quarter 2 2018: Financial Activities, Government, Information, Leisure & Hospitality, Durable Goods Manufacturing, Other Services, Professional & Business Services and Wholesale & Retail Trade.

The Outlook reported for the Education & Health Services sector nationwide is slightly weaker in comparison with the previous quarter.

The results for the Mining sector are reported only in the national survey data to ensure statistical accuracy.

Net EmploymentOutlook Q3 2018

SeasonallyAdjusted

IncreaseIndustry Decrease No Change Don’t Know

% % % %%%

Education & Health Services

Construction

Financial Activities

Government

Information

Leisure & Hospitality

Manufacturing – Durable Goods

Manufacturing – Nondurable Goods

Mining

Other Services

Professional & Business Services

Transportation & Utilities

Wholesale & Retail Trade

18 4 76 142 14

28 2 68 262 19

19 2 78 17 161

18 2 77 3 16 14

18 5 76 1 13 13

38 6 55 1 2732

24 2 73 1 1922

20 2 76 18 162

25 2 70 3 23 20

15 2 82 1 13 11

26 2 70 2 24 22

28 3 67 2 25 22

27 3 68 2 24 22



CLIENT: MANPOWER







SeasonallyAdjusted


% % % %%%


Construction

All Industries – Midwest


Government

Information




Other Services




15 3 81 121 12

26 2 71 241 12

25 2 72 231 19

25 4 71 21 190

12 2 86 0 10 7

19 4 76 1 15 16

49 1 49 1 4348

26 1 72 1 2125

25 3 68 22 194

10 1 88 1 9 8

27 2 71 0 25 21

29 3 68 0 26 21

25 3 69 3 22 18

’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18


No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero. Revised methodology effective Quarter 1 2009.

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Regional ComparisonsMidwest

Employers in 25 percent of the Midwest businesses surveyed expect payrolls to grow in the third quarter of 2018, while 2 percent anticipate a decline in employment levels. The resulting Net Employment Outlook for the region stands at +23%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, regional hiring prospects remain relatively stable in comparison with the previous quarter, and are slightly stronger when compared with this time one year ago.

Hiring intentions reported by Midwest employers in the Leisure & Hospitality and Financial Activities sectors improve considerably when compared with the second quarter of 2018. In addition, the Outlook for the Information sector is moderately stronger.

Hiring plans in three Midwest industry sectors remain relatively stable when compared with Quarter 2 2018: Education & Health Services, Durable Goods Manufacturing and Nondurable Goods Manufacturing.

Moderately weaker labor markets are anticipated by Midwest employers in the Wholesale & Retail Trade and Government sectors when compared with the previous quarter, while employers in four industry sectors report slight Outlook declines: Construction, Other Services, Professional & Business Services and Transportation & Utilities.

+23 (+19)%

The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin.



CLIENT: MANPOWER






Northeast

Payroll gains are anticipated by 23 percent of Northeast businesses surveyed for the upcoming quarter, while 3 percent of employers expect a decline in staffing levels. With 72 percent of employers in the region expecting no change, the Net Employment Outlook for the next three months is +20%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, hiring prospects remain relatively stable in comparison with Quarter 2 2018, and are slightly stronger when compared with the third quarter of 2017.

Transportation & Utilities sector employers in the Northeast report moderately stronger hiring plans for the next three months, when compared with the previous quarter. Government sector employers in the region report improved hiring prospects, with a slight quarter-over-quarter increase.

Hiring intentions remain relatively stable in five of the Northeast’s 12 industry sectors in comparison with Quarter 2 2018: Financial Activities, Information, Leisure & Hospitality, Nondurable Goods Manufacturing and Wholesale & Retail.

The Outlook for the Other Services sector in the Northeast is moderately weaker in comparison with the previous quarter. Slightly weaker hiring plans are reported for four of the regional industry sectors: Construction, Education & Health Services, Durable Goods Manufacturing and Professional & Business Services.

+20 (+16)%


SeasonallyAdjusted


% % % %%%


Construction

All Industries – Northeast


Government

Information




Other Services




15 5 77 103 13

28 1 70 271 14

23 3 72 202 16

22 2 75 20 181

17 2 78 3 15 13

15 6 78 1 9 9

39 5 56 0 2334

22 1 74 3 1521

14 1 82 13 113

13 3 83 1 10 8

27 3 69 1 24 20

26 4 67 3 22 19

27 4 67 2 23 21

’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18



-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York,

Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.



CLIENT: MANPOWER






South

Staffing levels are expected to grow during the next three months by 24 percent of businesses surveyed in the South. With 3 percent of regional employers anticipating a decline in payrolls and 72% expecting no change, the Net Employment Outlook is +21%. Once seasonal adjustment is applied to the data, employers in the South report the strongest Outlook in more than 10 years. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable when compared with the previous quarter, and are slightly stronger in comparison with this time one year ago.

Nondurable Goods Manufacturing sector employers in the South report a moderately stronger hiring climate in comparison with Quarter 2 2018, and hiring prospects are slightly stronger in four sectors: Construction, Other Services, Transportation & Utilities and Wholesale & Retail Trade.

Employers in three of the South’s 12 industry sectors report relatively stable hiring plans when compared with the previous quarter: Education & Health Services, Information and Durable Goods Manufacturing.

Labor markets weaken in four industry sectors across the region quarter-over-quarter, according to employers in the South. A slight decline in hiring prospects is reported for Financial Activities, Government, Leisure & Hospitality and Professional & Business Services.

+21 (+19)%


SeasonallyAdjustedIncreaseIndustry Decrease No Change Don’t Know

% % % %%%


Construction

All Industries – South


Government

Information




Other Services




21 3 75 181 16

25 3 70 222 20

24 3 72 211 19

15 3 81 12 121

19 2 77 2 17 16

22 6 72 0 16 14

38 7 54 1 2831

22 1 76 1 1921

20 3 76 17 161

17 2 80 1 15 14

25 1 73 1 24 22

26 3 69 2 23 20

27 3 68 2 24 23

’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18



-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

The South Region comprises the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico along with the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida,

Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.



CLIENT: MANPOWER






West

In the West, 24 percent of businesses surveyed anticipate an increase in payrolls during Quarter 3 2018, while 4 percent expect staffing levels to decrease and 70% of employers expect no change, the resulting Net Employment Outlook for the region is +20%. Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, hiring prospects are slightly weaker in comparison with the second quarter of 2018, but remain relatively stable year-over-year.

When compared with Quarter 2 2018, hiring plans are moderately stronger in the West’s Transportation & Utilities sector. Outlooks improve slightly for employers in four industry sectors: Durable Goods Manufacturing, Nondurable Goods Manufacturing, Other Services and Professional & Business Services.

Hiring intentions remain relatively stable in the region’s Construction, Financial Activities and Government sectors when compared with the previous quarter.

Information sector employers in the West report a considerable quarter-over-quarter decline in hiring prospects, and Outlooks are moderately weaker in the Education & Health Services and Leisure & Hospitality sectors. Slightly weaker hiring plans are reported by Wholesale & Retail Trade sector employers when compared to the second quarter of 2018.

+20 (+17)%


SeasonallyAdjustedIncreaseIndustry Decrease No Change Don’t Know

% % % %%%


Construction

All Industries – West


Government

Information




Other Services




17 6 74 113 12

33 2 63 312 22

24 4 70 202 17

18 1 79 17 182

23 3 70 4 20 18

15 4 79 2 11 12

29 7 63 1 1722

26 3 69 2 1923

20 1 77 19 182

18 2 79 1 16 12

29 2 66 3 27 24

33 3 63 1 30 28

27 4 67 2 23 22

’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18



-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon,

Utah, Washington, Wyoming.



CLIENT: MANPOWER







Metropolitan Statistical Areas

Survey results are available for the 100 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas based on business establishment count.

35% Indianapolis

34% Raleigh

33% Milwaukee

31% Grand Rapids

30% Colorado Springs, Greenville, Houston, Madison

Birmingham28%

27% Baltimore, Dallas, Greensboro, Rochester

26% Buffalo, Jacksonville, Omaha, Portland, Syracuse

25% Boston, Chattanooga, Columbia, Deltona, Denver, Harrisburg

24% Albuquerque, Charleston, Detroit, Memphis, Minneapolis, Sacramento

23% Baton Rouge, Columbus, Des Moines, Virginia Beach

22% Bridgeport, Charlotte, Jackson, North Port, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, Provo

21% Boise City, Chicago, Cincinnati, Honolulu, McAllen, Ogden, Richmond, Salt Lake City, San Diego, Spokane, Tulsa

20% Augusta, Nashville, San Francisco, Washington, Worcester

19% Albany, Atlanta, El Paso, Miami, Palm Bay, Providence, San Jose, Stockton, Wichita, Winston-Salem

18% Dayton, Orlando, San Antonio, Toledo, Tucson

17% Kansas City, Oklahoma City, St Louis, Youngstown

16% Akron, Los Angeles, Louisville, Oxnard, Riverside, Seattle, Springfield

15% Fresno, Lakeland, Las Vegas

14% Cleveland, Hartford, Knoxville, New York, Philadelphia, Tampa

13% Allentown, Bakersfield, New Orleans, Scranton

12% Cape Coral, New Haven

11% Little Rock

10% Austin

Metropolitan Statistical AreasFor Quarter 3 2018, 100 of the largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the United States report positive Net Employment Outlooks. Additional survey results for each MSA are available at meos-press.manpowergroup.us.



CLIENT: MANPOWER






ManpowerGroup interviewed nearly 60,000 employers across 44 countries and territories to forecast labor market activity* in Quarter 3 2018. All participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2018 as compared to the current quarter?”

Third-quarter results indicate that, despite an uncertain geopolitical outlook, employer confidence remains mostly resilient across the globe. Payrolls are expected to grow by varying degrees in all countries and territories with the exception of Italy where the Outlook is negative for the second consecutive quarter. A clear majority of employers polled indicate they will maintain or add to their workforces, and only a fraction plan to reduce payrolls. Examples of notable optimism include Finland where the Outlook is the strongest reported since the country started the survey nearly six years ago, and in China where employers report their most optimistic hiring plans in three years. Conversely, the forecast in Panama is the weakest reported since the survey was launched in 2010. And New Zealand’s forecast is the least optimistic reported since 2009.

When compared to the prior quarter’s results, forecasts improve in 19 countries and territories, decline in 18 and remain unchanged in seven. A more favorable pattern emerges when forecasts are compared with last year at this time as hiring intentions improve in 24 countries, decline in only 12 and remain unchanged in seven.** Globally, the strongest third-quarter hiring plans are reported in Japan, Croatia, Taiwan, Hungary and the United States. The weakest forecasts are reported in Italy, Panama and Spain.

In the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region workforce gains are forecast in 25 of 26 countries. Hiring plans improve in 12 countries quarter-over-quarter, weaken in 10 and are unchanged in four. In a year-over-year comparison, Outlooks improve in 13 countries, decline in six and are unchanged in six.

Croatian employers report the region’s strongest third-quarter hiring plans, and also share with Japan the strongest hiring intentions worldwide. Italian employers report the region’s weakest Outlook and, as noted above, the only negative hiring intentions among the 44 countries and territories surveyed.

Payrolls are expected to grow in all eight Asia Pacific countries and territories. Net Employment Outlooks improve in five countries and territories when compared to the prior quarter, decline in two and are unchanged in one. In a year-over-year comparison the hiring pace is expected to improve in six countries and territories, decline in one and remain unchanged in one. Employers in Japan and Taiwan report the region’s most optimistic forecasts, with the region’s weakest forecasts in New Zealand and Australia.

Positive Outlooks are also reported in the 10 countries surveyed in the Americas. However, when compared to the April-June quarter, hiring confidence strengthens in only two countries, dips in six and is unchanged in two. In the year-over-year comparison, hiring prospects improve in five countries and weaken in the remaining five. For the third consecutive quarter employers in the United States report the strongest hiring plans in the Americas, while opportunities for job seekers are expected to be weakest in Panama and Brazil.

Full survey results for each of the 44 countries and territories included in this quarter’s survey, plus regional and global comparisons, can be found at

www.manpowergroup.com/meos

The next ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 11 September and will forecast labor market activity for the fourth quarter of 2018.

* Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Data is not seasonally adjusted for Croatia or Portugal.

** Croatia joined the survey in the prior quarter and has no year-over-year comparison data.

Global Employment Outlook



CLIENT: MANPOWER






The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. ManpowerGroup’s comprehensive forecast of employer hiring plans has been running for more than 55 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey:

Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus.

Projective: The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past.

Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries and territories in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from ManpowerGroup’s customer base.

Robust: The survey is based on interviews with nearly 60,000 public and private employers across 44 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

Focused: For more than 55 years the survey has derived all of its information from a single question:

For the Quarter 3 2018 research, all employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2018 as compared to the current quarter?”

MethodologyThe ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%.

About the SurveyNet Employment OutlookThroughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. Net Employment Outlooks for countries and territories that have accumulated at least 17 quarters of data are reported in a seasonally adjusted format unless otherwise stated.

Seasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for all participating countries except Croatia and Portugal. ManpowerGroup intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 2008, ManpowerGroup adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data.

Additional Information AvailableFind complete survey results, including reports for the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 50 states, District of Columbia and Puerto Rico on our website at press.manpower.com.

About ManpowerGroup®

ManpowerGroup® (NYSE: MAN), the leading global workforce solutions company, helps organizations transform in a fast-changing world of work by sourcing, assessing, developing and managing the talent that enables them to win. We develop innovative solutions for hundreds of thousands of organizations every year, providing them with skilled talent while finding meaningful, sustainable employment for millions of people across a wide range of industries and skills. Our expert family of brands–Manpower®, Experis®, Right Management® and ManpowerGroup® Solutions–creates substantially more value for candidates and clients across 80 countries and territories and has done so for 70 years. In 2018, ManpowerGroup was named one of the World’s Most Ethical Companies for the ninth year and one of Fortune’s Most Admired Companies for the sixteenth year, confirming our position as the most trusted and admired brand in the industry. See how ManpowerGroup is powering the future of work: www.manpowergroup.com.

ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey United States Survey MAN… · Manufacturing, Other...

Documents

Transcript of ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey United States Survey MAN… · Manufacturing, Other...