ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Australia Q3 Q3 2018. SMART JOB NO: 17814 QUARTER 3 2018...

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Transcript of ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Australia Q3 Q3 2018. SMART JOB NO: 17814 QUARTER 3 2018...

  • SMART JOB NO: 17814 QUARTER 3 2018

    CLIENT: MANPOWER

    SUBJECT: MEOS Q318 – AUSTRALIA – FOUR COLOUR – A4

    SIZE: A4

    DOC NAME: 17814_AUSTRALIA_4COL_A4_Q318_FORPDF PAGE: 1

    ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 31.05.18

    87 CHARTERHOUSE STREET • LONDON EC1M 6HJ • TEL +44 (0)20 7553 4744

    ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Australia

    Q3 2018

  • SMART JOB NO: 17814 QUARTER 3 2018

    CLIENT: MANPOWER

    SUBJECT: MEOS Q318 – AUSTRALIA – FOUR COLOUR – A4

    SIZE: A4

    DOC NAME: 17814_AUSTRALIA_4COL_A4_Q318_FORPDF PAGE: 2

    ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 31.05.18

    87 CHARTERHOUSE STREET • LONDON EC1M 6HJ • TEL +44 (0)20 7553 4744

    The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey for the third quarter 2018 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 1,501 employers in Australia.

    All survey participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of September 2018 as compared to the current quarter?”

    Contents

    Australian Employment Outlook 1 Organisation-Size Comparisons Regional Comparisons Sector Comparisons

    Global Employment Outlook 11 International Comparisons – Asia Pacific International Comparisons – Americas International Comparisons – EMEA

    About the Survey 28

    About ManpowerGroup® 29A us

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  • ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 1

    SMART JOB NO: 17814 QUARTER 3 2018

    CLIENT: MANPOWER

    SUBJECT: MEOS Q318 – AUSTRALIA – FOUR COLOUR – A4

    SIZE: A4

    DOC NAME: 17814_AUSTRALIA_4COL_A4_Q318_FORPDF PAGE: 1

    ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 31.05.18

    87 CHARTERHOUSE STREET • LONDON EC1M 6HJ • TEL +44 (0)20 7553 4744

    Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Outlook

    Seasonally Adjusted

    % % % % % %

    July-Sep 2017

    Oct-Dec 2017

    Jan-Mar 2018

    Apr-June 2018

    July-Sep 2018

    10 3 83 4 7 9

    15 4 78 3 11 10

    18 5 74 3 13 13

    14 3 80 3 11 10

    11 3 84 2 8 10

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookNet Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -20

    Australian Employment Outlook

    Australian employers report moderate hiring plans for the third quarter of 2018. With 11% of employers expecting to increase staffing levels, 3% anticipating a decrease and 84% expecting no change, the Net Employment Outlook is +8%.

    Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +10%, and is unchanged when compared with the previous quarter. In comparison with this time one year ago, employers report relatively stable hiring prospects.

    Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase and subtracting from this the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

    From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise.

  • 2 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey

    SMART JOB NO: 17814 QUARTER 3 2018

    CLIENT: MANPOWER

    SUBJECT: MEOS Q318 – AUSTRALIA – FOUR COLOUR – A4

    SIZE: A4

    DOC NAME: 17814_AUSTRALIA_4COL_A4_Q318_FORPDF PAGE: 2

    ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 31.05.18

    87 CHARTERHOUSE STREET • LONDON EC1M 6HJ • TEL +44 (0)20 7553 4744

    Participating employers are categorised into one of four organisation sizes: Micro businesses have less than 10 employees; Small businesses have 10-49 employees; Medium businesses have 50-249 employees; and Large businesses have 250 or more employees.

    Workforce gains are anticipated in all four organisation size categories for the upcoming quarter. Large employers report active hiring plans with a Net Employment Outlook of +22%, while Outlooks of +11% and +7% are reported in the Medium- and Small-size categories, respectively. Meanwhile, Micro employers reflect cautious hiring prospects with an Outlook of +1%.

    Organisation-Size Comparisons When compared with the second quarter of 2018, Outlooks decline by four and two percentage points for Medium- and Large-size employers, respectively. However, Small employers report no change, while the Outlook for Micro firms is two percentage points stronger.

    In a comparison with Quarter 3 2017, Large employers report an improvement of five percentage points, but the Outlook for Medium employers is three percentage points weaker. Elsewhere, Small employers report relatively stable hiring plans, and the Outlook for Micro employers is unchanged.

    IncreaseOrganisation-Size Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net Employment Outlook

    Seasonally Adjusted

    % % % % % %

    Large-Size 250 or more

    Medium-Size 50-249

    Small-Size 10-49

    Micro-Size less than 10

    21 2 74 3 19 22

    13 3 83 1 10 11

    10 4 84 2 6 7

    3 4 92 1 -1 1

    Micro-Size less than 10Micro-Size less than 10

    Graph displays Seasonally Adjusted DataGraph displays Seasonally Adjusted Data

    Small-Size 10-49Small-Size 10-49 Medium-Size 50-249Medium-Size 50-249 Large-Size 250 or moreLarge-Size 250 or more

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

  • ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey 3

    SMART JOB NO: 17814 QUARTER 3 2018

    CLIENT: MANPOWER

    SUBJECT: MEOS Q318 – AUSTRALIA – FOUR COLOUR – A4

    SIZE: A4

    DOC NAME: 17814_AUSTRALIA_4COL_A4_Q318_FORPDF PAGE: 3

    ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 31.05.18

    87 CHARTERHOUSE STREET • LONDON EC1M 6HJ • TEL +44 (0)20 7553 4744

    Payrolls are forecast to increase in seven of the eight regions during Quarter 3 2018. New South Wales employers anticipate the strongest labour market, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +15%. Elsewhere, steady workforce gains are forecast in Victoria, with an Outlook of +12%, while Queensland employers report a cautiously optimistic Outlook of +9%. Some job gains are expected in two regions with Outlooks of +6% − South Australia and Western Australia − while the Outlook for Tasmania stands at +5%. However, Northern Territory employers report uncertain hiring intentions with an Outlook of -1%.

    When compared with the previous quarter, hiring prospects weaken in four of the eight regions. South Australia employers report the most noteworthy

    -5 20

    Western Australia

    *Incorporated with New South Wales until Q1 2009.

    Victoria

    Tasmania

    South Australia

    Queensland

    Northern Territory

    New South Wales

    6 4

    4

    10

    3

    8 9

    1

    15

    -1

    13

    12

    5

    6

    Australian Capital Territory (ACT)* 2 1

    Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook

    0 5 10 15

    Regional Comparisons decline of four percentage points, while Outlooks are three percentage points weaker in Tasmania, Western Australia and Australian Capital Territory (ACT). Elsewhere, hiring plans improve in two regions, including Victoria, with an increase of two percentage points.

    Hiring intentions weaken in five of the eight regions when compared with this time one year ago. A considerable decline of 10 percentage points is reported in ACT, while Tasmanian employers report a decrease of seven percentage points. Outlooks also decline by three percentage points in two regions − Northern Territory and Western Australia. Meanwhile, hiring prospects improve in three regions, most notably by four percentage points in both Queensland and New South Wales.

  • 4 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey

    SMART JOB NO: 17814 QUARTER 3 2018

    CLIENT: MANPOWER

    SUBJECT: MEOS Q318 – AUSTRALIA – FOUR COLOUR – A4

    SIZE: A4

    DOC NAME: 17814_AUSTRALIA_4COL_A4_Q318_FORPDF PAGE: 4

    ARTWORK SIZE: 297mm x 210mm DATE: 31.05.18

    87 CHARTERHOUSE STREET • LONDON EC1M 6HJ • TEL +44 (0)20 7553 4744

    Australian Capital Territory (ACT) The weakest hiring pace in three years is expected during the coming quarter. Employers report a Net Employment Outlook of +2%, declining by three percentage points when compared with the previous quarter, and by 10 percentage points in comparison with this time one year ago.

    New South Wales Employers continue to forecast a steady hiring pace in Quarter 3 2018, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +15% for the second consecutive quarter. Year-over-year, the Outlook improves by four percentage points.

    Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookNet Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

    No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

    50

    40

    30

    20

    10

    0

    -10

    -