Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2004

8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2004

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2nd Quarter 2004

Manpower Employment Outlook SurveyUnited States


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The United States Employment Outlook

ContentsUnited States Employment Outlook 2

The Americas Employment Outlook 14

Global Employment Outlook 16

About the Survey 18

About Manpower 19

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Increase Decrease No Change Dont Know Net EmploymentOutlookSeasonally Adjusted

% % % % % %

3rd Quarter 2003 20 9 65 6 11 74th Quarter 2003 22 11 62 5 11 10

1st Quarter 2004 20 13 61 6 7 13

2nd Quarter 2004 28 6 62 4 22 20

The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.

Employment Outlook of 22%. Sixty-two percent of the

employers polled anticipate no change in hiring activity,

and 4% are uncertain of the job outlook at their companies.

The employment outlook has not been this promising

since the first quarter of 2001, according to the

seasonally adjusted survey results.

The job forecast for the second quarter is a steady

improvement from the first quarter of 2004 and is nearly

twice as strong as it was last year at this time.

Nearly 16,000 interviews have been conducted with

employers across the United States to measure

anticipated employment trends between April and June

2004. All participants were asked, How do you

anticipate total employment at your location to change in

the three months to the end of June 2004 as compared

to the current quarter?

Of the US employers that were surveyed, 28% expect

an increase in hiring in the second quarter, while 6%

plan to decrease staff levels. This creates a Net


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4

Regional ComparisonsMidwest

Net EmploymentOutlook

Seasonally AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Don t Know

%%%%% % All Industries 29 6 62 3 23 19

Construction 48 5 42 5 43 23

Education 913 76 2 4 5

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 20 8 69 3 12 11Manufacturing Durables 32 7 59 2 25 21

Manufacturing Non-Durables 28 5 63 4 23 22

Mining 0 0 100 0 -40

Public Administration 27 11 58 4 16 6

Services 27 5 66 2 22 18Transportation & Public Utilities 21 677 5 14 11Wholesale & Retail Trade 30 5 62 3 25 23


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

The Midwest Region is comprised of the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota,Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin.

Of the employers surveyed in the Midwest, 29%

anticipate an increase in hiring in the second quarter,

while 6% expect a decrease in employment activity.

Thus, the Net Employment Outlook is 23%. This marks a

notable surge in hiring expectations from the first quarter

and a year ago. According to the seasonally adjusted

survey results, the job forecast for the Midwest has not

been as positive in more than three years.

With the exception of Mining, employers in each of the

10 industry sectors surveyed plan to offer more job

opportunities in the second quarter, compared with the

first period of 2004. The most quarter-over-quarter job

gains are predicted in the Non-Durable Goods

Manufacturing sector.

Midwest employers are more optimistic in their hiring

estimates than they were a year ago in every industry

sector but Finance/Insurance/Real Estate where job

growth is expected to be flat. A significant increase in

employment prospects over last year is anticipated for

the Mining, Construction, Durable and Non-Durable

Goods Manufacturing, and Wholesale/Retail Trade sectors.


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5


Seasonally Adjusted

Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know

% % % % % %

All Industries 26 8 61 5 1718

Construction 38 553 4 35 28

Education 13 8 75 4 5 7

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 27 6 61 6 21 19

Manufacturing Durables 26 8 61 5 18 16

Manufacturing Non-Durables 26 10 16 14

Mining 0 25 -25 -26

Public Administration 16 9 7 5

Services 26 5 21 18

Transportation & Public Utilities 23 12

62

75

70

64

61

2

0

5

5

4 11 12

Wholesale & Retail Trade 29 10 55 6 19 21


-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Northeast

The Northeast Region is comprised of the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York,Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.

Twenty-six percent of employers surveyed in the

Northeast report an increase in hiring intentions, and 8%

forecast a decrease, resulting in a Net Employment

Outlook of 18%. Although employers in the Northeastexpect to offer ample job opportunities, the outlook for

this area is not as strong as the other three US regions,

on a seasonally adjusted basis. In the Northeast, the

second quarter is expected to bring slightly more job

prospects than first quarter and even better prospects

than last year at this time.

Employers in this region project a considerable increase

in Construction hiring from the first quarter of this year.

They anticipate moderate job growth in the Durable

and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Services and Public

Administration sectors. Hiring is expected to be stable inthe Transportation/Public Utilities, Wholesale/Retail Trade

and Education sectors.

Mining employers in the Northeast report a substantial

reduction in hiring activity, compared with last quarter

and last year. Employers in the other nine industry

sectors expect stronger year-over-year hiring, particularly

in Construction, Transportation/Public Utilities ,

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Public Administration.


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South


Seasonally Adjusted

Increase Decrease No Change Don t Know

% % % % % %

All Industries 29 5 62 4 24 22

Construction 41 523 4 38 30Education 15 6 77 2 9 11




Mining 29 8 61 2 21 21

Public Administration 19 752 4 17 14

Services 31 5 59 5 26 22

Transportation & Public Utilities 25 674 4 21 20


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

The South Region is comprised of the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana,Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.

In the South, 29% of employers surveyed plan to increase

hiring activity, while 5% expect fewer employment

opportunities. This creates a Net Employment Outlook

of 24%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the job outlookfor the South is the strongest of the four US regions,

as it has been for seven of the past eight quarters.

Employers in the South anticipate a moderate

improvement in hiring over last quarter and last year

at this time.

A boost in hiring from first quarter and a year ago is

anticipated across all 10 industry sectors in the South.

The expected increases are most significant in the

Mining, Transportation/Public Utilities andWholesale/Retail Trade sectors. Finance/Insurance/Real

Estate and Education employers predict the most modest

job growth quarter over quarter and year over year.


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West


Seasonally AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Don t Know

% % % % % %

All Industries 30 8 55 7 22 20

Construction 41 7 47 5 34 26

Education 17 11 59 13 6 5




Mining 12 0 88 0 12 10

Public Administration 22 15 57 6 7 3

Services 36 5 52 7 31 27

Transportation & Public Utilities 25 8 60 7 17 20


Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

The West Region is comprised of the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico,Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.

Of the employers surveyed in the West, 30% plan an

increase in employment, while 8% predict that hiring

activity will decline. Thus, the Net Employment Outlook

is 22%. When seasonal variations are removed from thedata, this represents a slight improvement in hiring

intentions from last quarter and a moderate

improvement from last year at this time.

Modest job growth over first quarter is anticipated in six

of the 10 industry sectors in the West, including

Construction, Durable and Non-Durable Goods

Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,

Wholesale/Retail Trade and Education. Hiring

expectations are even stronger in the Services sector

where employers foresee a considerable increase in

hiring, compared with the previous quarter and last yearat this time.

For the third consecutive quarter, minimal employment

activity is expected among employers in the Public

Administration sector. Mining and Finance/Insurance/

Real Estate are the only sectors in the West in which

employers estimate a decrease in job opportunities

compared with the previous quarter.


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Sector ComparisonsFor the second consecutive quarter, hiring activity is

expected to increase across all 10 industry sectors on

a seasonally adjusted basis.

Employer optimism regarding second quarter hiring is

most apparent within the Construction industry where

hiring intentions have not been so strong in 26 years.

A strong hiring pace is also anticipated in the Durable

and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Services

and Wholesale/Retail Trade sectors.

Education and Public Administration employers

predict the fewest employment opportunities for

the second quarter.

Construction

Education

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

Manufacturing Durables

Manufacturing Non-Durables

Mining

Public Administration

Services

Transportation & Public Utilities

Wholesale & Retail Trade

17

28

78

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

1514

139

25

16

21

2323

23

1920

16

18

16


38


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Construction

-20-15-10

-505

10152025303540


89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Second quarter job prospects in Construction are the

strongest of all of the industry sectors. Construction

employers are more optimistic about hiring than they

have been since the late 1970s, according to theseasonally adjusted data. For the third consecutive

quarter, a moderate increase in hiring is expected, and

job prospects are considerably better than a year ago

at this time. Hiring expectations are strongest in the

South and weakest in the Midwest.

Education

-10

-5

0

5

10

1520

25


89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Second quarter hiring intentions for the Education sector

show a continued pattern of steady job growth.

According to the seasonally adjusted data, employers

plan slight increases in the hiring pace compared to last

quarter and a year ago.

Jobs are expected to be most plentiful in the South and

fewest in the Midwest and West.


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10

Manufacturing Durable Goods

-10-505

101520253035


89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

When seasonal variations are removed from the data,

Durable Goods Manufacturers expressed their

strongest hiring intentions since the first quarter of

2001. Employers expect a moderate increase in jobs

over last quarter and considerable growth compared

with a year ago.

The strongest hiring activity for this sector is expected

in the South, and employers in the Northeast anticipate

the fewest job opportunities.

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

0

5

10

15

20

25

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Finance/Insurance/Real Estate employers report hiring

plans similar to those issued the last two quarters and

predict some job gains for the second quarter.

Employers in this sector expect a slight increase inhiring over last quarter and a moderate increase

compared with a year ago.

Job prospects are most promising in the West, with

the Northeast and South not far behind. Midwest

employers report the weakest hiring intentions in

this sector.


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Mining

On a seasonally adjusted basis, Mining employers

anticipate steady job gains. The hiring pace is expected

to be consistent with last quarter but more upbeat than

a year ago at this time.

For the second quarter, hiring intentions among Mining

employers are most optimistic in the South. The least

promising job outlook for the Mining sector is in the

Northeast with significant job losses anticipated.

Manufacturing Non-Durable Goods

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


According to the seasonally adjusted data, Non-

Durable Goods Manufacturers plan to hire at a steady

pace during the second quarter. This marks the highest

expectations in job market growth in three years for theNon-Durable Goods Manufacturing sector.

Employers report a moderate increase in jobs over last

quarter and last year at this time.

Estimated employment levels are strongest in the

Midwest and weakest in the Northeast.

-10-505

1015

202530



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Public Administration

-10-505

1015202530


89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Services

0

5

10

15

20

25

30


The employment outlook for the Services sector

suggests healthy job market growth not seen since the

second quarter of 2001. Employers are more positive in

their hiring intentions than they were last quarter and a

year ago.

According to seasonally adjusted data, employment

opportunities will be most plentiful in the West.

Employers in the Midwest and Northeast anticipate the

fewest job openings.

Hiring plans among Public Administration employers

have fluctuated during the last two years, and

predictions for the coming quarter continue the pattern.

Modest job gains are expected when seasonal variationsare removed from the data, with more hiring expected

over last quarter and last year.

The strongest hiring activity is expected in the South,

while the fewest job opportunities are anticipated in

the West.


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Wholesale & Retail Trade

-15-10

-505

101520253035


89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Transportation & Public Utilities

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25


89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

When the seasonal variations are removed from the data,

job opportunities in Transportation/Public Utilities are

expected to return to levels last seen during the second

quarter of 2001. Hiring projections are up from lastquarter, and significantly more optimistic than last year.

Employers in the South and West anticipate the

strongest hiring activity, while those in the Midwest

expect to hire at a slower pace than the other US

regions.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the employment outlook

in the Wholesale/Retail Trade industry is healthier than it

has been in the last three years. Hiring expectations

continue their steady climb in the second quarter.

A modest increase in job prospects from last quarter is

anticipated, as is significant job growth over last year.

There is little variation in the employment outlook

across the regions. The most job opportunities are

predicted in the South, and similar gains are expected

in the Midwest and West. Slightly less hiring activity is

estimated in the Northeast.


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Sector Comparisonsthe second quarter, compared to the first quarter.

In Mexico, employers in the Industry sector have

predicted quarter-on-quarter improvements. Mexican

employers in the Services sector are reporting a veryslight fall of 1 percentage point in anticipated hiring

intentions over last quarter.

2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels, Transport Storage and Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services, and Public Administration.

Canada

%

25

Net Employment Outlook

Industry Services

%

-1

Q1 2004

%

2

Q1 2004

%

23

United States 218 624

Mexico 1111 1218

Q2 2004 Q2 2004

Within this section, we outline variation in the Net

Employment Outlook across two broad categories:

Industry and Services 2. Positive hiring activity is

expected across the region in both categories.Canadian and American employers in both sectors

anticipate a considerable increase in hiring activity for


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Global Employment OutlookOver 35,000 employers have been interviewed across 19 countries and territories to measure anticipated

employment trends between April and June 2004.

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change

Americas Q1 to Q2 2004

Canada 23

Mexico 3

United States

Q1 2004

%

1

11

7 (13) 1

Q2 2004

%

24

14

22 (20) 1 15 (7) 1


Asia Pacific

Australia 3

Hong Kong 4

Japan 17New Zealand

Q2 2004

%

18

16

2039

Q1 2004

%

15

12

3

Singapore 86 2

Qtr on Qtr Change

Q1 to Q2 2004

Net Employment Outlook Qtr on Qtr Change

Europe Q1 to Q2 2004

Austria 12

Belgium 2

France -1

Germany 10

Ireland 6

Netherlands 0

Norway -3

Spain 0

Sweden 9

UK 7 (-3) 1

Italy

Q1 2004

%

-1

7

5

-14

3

4

10

9

8

9 (16) 1

0

Q2 2004

%

11

9

4

-4

9

4

7

9

17

16 (13) 1

5 5

1. Number in parentheses is Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove the impact of seasonal variations in hiring activity for the UKand United States.

Regional and International ComparisonsWhen seasonal variations are removed from the US and

UK data, the UK results are positive, with a steady

outlook for the three months ahead and prospects in the

US are the most optimistic since first quarter of 2001.

Employers in 18 of the 19 countries surveyed are

anticipating a positive employment outlook for the

second quarter of 2004. Notable improvements in job

prospects are expected in the US, Japan, Canada,

Austria and Sweden. Germany, despite having reported

a negative Net Employment Outlook, is showing

improved results.


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Sector Comparisons

2. Industry comprises Mining, Manufacturing, Public Utilities and Construction. Services comprises Wholesale/Retail Trade/Restaurants/Hotels, Transport, Storage & Communication, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services, and Public Administration.

Canada

%

25


Industry Services

Americas

%

-1

Q1 2004

%

2

Q1 2004

%

23

United States 218 624

Mexico 1111 1218

Q2 2004 Q2 2004

%%

Japan 3 20


Industry Services

Asia Pacific

%

3

Q1 2004 Q1 2004

%

Australia 16 1813 19

Hong Kong 14 172 13

21

New Zealand 40 37Singapore 9 9-3 5

Q2 2004 Q2 2004

%%

Ireland 612 8-14

Italy 14 6-3

Net Employment OutlookIndustry Services

Europe

%

Q1 2004 Q1 2004

%

France 4 6 43Germany -13 -3-16 -6

Austria 62-2 17

Belgium 8 95 9

Norway 122 96

Netherlands 42 66

UK 912 168

Sweden 917 187Spain 10 99 9

Q2 2004 Q2 2004

Norway and the Netherlands are the least.

Similarly, in the Services category, job prospects are

expected to be positive in all countries with only

Germany reporting a negative Net Employment

Outlook. Strongest prospects for Services are expected

in New Zealand, Canada, United States and Japan.

Within this section, we outline variation in the Net

Employment Outlook across two broad categories:

Industry and Services. All of the countries surveyed,

except Germany, are predicting positive hiring activityin both categories. Employers in the Industry category

in New Zealand, Canada, United States and Japan

are most optimistic while employers in Germany,


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About the Survey The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conductedquarterly to measure employers intentions to increase ordecrease the number of employees in their workforce duringthe next quarter. The survey has been running for more than 40

years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employmentactivity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:

Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and areaof focus.

Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is theonly forward-looking survey, asking employers to forecastemployment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveysand studies focus on retrospective data to report on whatoccurred in the past.

Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derivedall of its information from a single question.

Independent: The survey is conducted with a representativesample of employers from throughout the countries in which itis conducted. The survey participants are not derived fromManpower s customer base.

Robust: The survey is based on interviews with more than35,000 public and private employers across 19 nationaleconomies to measure anticipated employment trends eachquarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed acrossspecific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

Methodology The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using

a validated methodology, in accordance with the higheststandards in market research. The research team for the 19countries and territories where the survey is currently conductedincludes Manpower s Market Intelligence team; the Research &Diagnostics Division of The Empower Group an independentoperating division of Manpower Inc.; NOP World and GrupoIDM. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national,regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.2%.

In the United States, the national survey is conducted byManpower s North American Market Intelligence Team andincludes 16,000 employers. With this number of interviews, themargin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.

Survey Question All employers participating in the survey worldwide are askedthe same question, How do you anticipate total employmentat your location to change in the three months to the end of June 2004 as compared to the current quarter?

Net Employment Outlook Throughout this report, we use the term Net EmploymentOutlook . This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity andsubtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect tosee a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter.

The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

Seasonal AdjustmentSeasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for theUnited States and United Kingdom to provide additional insightinto the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to

review the data without the employment fluctuations thatnormally occur at the same time each year, thus providing aclearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to addseasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in thefuture, as more historical data is compiled.

Sectors The industry sectors that are reported for each country in thisreport are representative of the local economy. In some areasof the report, we have reported the data in two broad sectorcategories: Industry and Services. These categories areconsistent with standards of other respected international datasources. The Industry category includes sectors such as:construction, manufacturing, mining and public utilities. TheServices category includes wholesale and retail trade;restaurants and hotels; transportation and storage;communication; finance; insurance; real estate; other businessservices and public administration.


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History of the Survey1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

Survey launched in the United States and Canada.

1966 Manpower s UK operation launches the equivalent of the United States survey, naming the report theQuarterly Survey of Employment Prospects. The surveyadopts the same forward-looking research format as theUnited States survey and is the first of its kind inEurope.

1976 2nd generation of Manpower s Employment OutlookSurvey launched in the United States and Canada.Research methodology is updated to evolve withadvancements in the field of market research.

2002 Manpower UK s Quarterly Survey of EmploymentProspects is updated to adopt an enhanced researchmethodology. Manpower s operations in Mexico andIreland launch the survey in their respective countries.

2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook

Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total18 countries worldwide: Australia, Austria, Belgium,Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy,Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain,Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.

2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch theManpower Employment Outlook Survey.

About Manpower Inc.Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in theemployment services industry, offering customers a continuum of services to meet their needs throughout the employment andbusiness cycle. The company specializes in permanent,

temporary and contract recruitment; employee assessment;training; career transition and organizational consulting services.Manpower s worldwide network of 4,300 offices in 67 countriesand territories enables the company to meet the needs of its400,000 customers per year, including small and medium sizeenterprises in all industry sectors, as well as the world s largestmultinational corporations. The focus of Manpower s work is onraising productivity through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction, enabling customers to concentrate on their corebusiness activities. In addition to the Manpower brand, thecompany operates under the brand names of RightManagement Consultants, Jefferson Wells, Elan, Brook Streetand Empower. More information on Manpower Inc. is available atwww.manpower.com.

In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range of HR services, in addition to providing administrative, industrialand contact center personnel. Under the ManpowerProfessional brand, the company places contract professionalson assignment in areas such as information technology,scientific, finance, engineering and telecommunications. Moreinformation about Manpower s US operation can be found atwww.us.manpower.com.


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Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217Tel: 414 961 1000

www.us.manpower.com

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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q2, 2004

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