Manfred Tessaring Cedefop Polarisation of skills and jobs?

Manfred TessaringCedefop

Polarisation of skills and jobs?

Polarisation of jobs?EU: employment increase

high-skilled non-manual occupations.

BUT also in

elementary occupations andlow-skilled non-manual occupations.

polarisation

high-skilled very low-skilled

(Employment in Europe, 2006)

USA: weak job growth in the middle

polarized pattern

albeit weighted toward the better jobs

(Wright and Dryer, 2003)

5.5

3.1

0.8

2.8

3.0

0 2 4 6

Highest

Fourth

Third

Second

Lowest

USA: Net job change 1992 - 2000 by job quality*

* Job quality (in quintiles) takes into account occupations, sectors and earnings. Source: Wright and Dwyer, 2003

Millions

Job q

ualit

y

2.1

-1.5

3.6

11.6

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

High-skilled non-manual occupations

Low-skilled non-manual occupations

Skilled manual occupations

Elementary occupations

EU15: Net employment change 1998 - 2006 by occupational groups

Source: Eurostat (Labour Force Survey) Millions

Agora XXVII, 26-27 April 2007 Building a European VET area

3

Three dogmata of education research and policy

1. Ever increasing skill demand worldwideat the detriment of the low skilled

2. Human resources investments yield benefits for societyand contribute to economic & social performance

3. Skilled people are better offlife chances & labour market opportunities


4

Dogma 3 ‘Increasing skill demand’

• Reasons: skill-biased technological change; structural & sectoral change, tertiarisation; new work organisation; …

• BUT: for which jobs and skills does this apply?

• Do people’s skills match present and future skill needs?

How to measure ‘demand’?


5

Which jobs are in demand?(EU27)

• Skilled and higher skilled occupations: 2/3 of jobs • Still significant share of low and semi-skilled jobs (1/3)• Sectors: high skills in services (80%),

medium in industry (71%), lowest in agriculture (53%)

38.0%

24.3%

27.8%

9.9%High-skilled non-manual

Elementary

Skilled manual

Low-skilled non-manual

Occupational structure2006

4729 21

4754

47

6 1733

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Agriculture Industry Services

Low Medium High

Sectoral qualification structures 2005


6

More medium & VET skills needed?Some findings

• EU: A significant share of the future workforce will need vocational skills and competences.(Helsinki Communiqué, 2006)

• By 2015, France will require practitioners including in more traditional jobs (at intermediate level) in which there is already a skills shortage. (Chardon and Estrade, 2007- draft)

• China: ‘It is often overlooked that we need more highly qualified skilled workers and experienced technicians.’ (Xu Zhihong, President of the Beijing University, 2007)


7

Medium skill needs in sectors: some examples

• Logistics: new skill requirements of workers with VET qualifications, e.g. in business process control, IT logistics and management, materials tracking systems, leadership. (Schnalzer et al., 2003)

• Tourism: new trends (individualisation, older tourists, cultural and environmental awareness, ICTs, etc.) require new skills and well-trained employees at intermediate levels. (Strietska-Ilina et al., 2005)

• Nanotechnologies: shifting from basic research to production, process control, quality assurance, marketing and sales will increasingly be assigned to skilled workers with qualifications below university level. (Abicht et al., 2006)


8

Skill supply• Increasing educational attainment of the labour force –

outcome of past educational expansion• Young generations are higher qualified than older people• Younger women are higher qualified than younger men

42.0%

33.9%24.1% LOW

MEDIUM

HIGH

1997 2005

Net change 1997-2005 by educational level

LOW: - 13.5 million

MEDIUM: +11.0 million

HIGH: +13.0 million38.7%

18.7%

42.6%

LOW

MEDIUM

HIGH

EU 15


9

Adult* skills

EU27 (2006):

• 80 million adults are (formally) low skilled

• 60 million adults have higher skills

• 125 million adults have medium skills; out of these, ca. 64% have vocational

qualifications = ca. 80 million

* Working-age population 25-64 years

4.0

1.0

0.8

2.1

-2 0 2 4 6 8

High-skilled non-manual

Low-skilled non-manual

Skilled manual

Elementary occupations

HighMediumLow

EU15: Net employment change 1998 - 2006 by occupational groups and highest level of education attained

Source: Eurostat (Labour Force Survey)

Level of education:

Millions


11

What are elementary occupations? (ISCO 9)

• Requirements: knowledge and experience to perform mostly simple and routine tasks, only limited personal initiative or judgement.

• Main tasks: selling goods in streets, doorkeeping and property watching, cleaning, washing, pressing, and working as labourers in mining, agriculture and fishing, construction and manufacturing.

• Most occupations in this group require low skills. (Source: ILO)


12

Higher skills in elementary occupations: overqualification or higher demands?

100

200

300

400

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Medium

Low

High

Elementary occupations: employment change 1998 - 2006 by educational attainment, EU15 (1998 = 100)

Source: Eurostat (Labour Force Surveys) 1998 = 100


13

Working in elementary occupations (compared to all occupations; EU15, 2006)

All elementary occupations 2006: 17 million (=10% of total employment);

increase 1998-2006: + 3.6 million

Some patterns: Women: 52% (total: 44%) Temporary job: women 38% (total: 4.3%) Part-time job: women 56% (total: 36%) Age: young men: 18% (total: 10%)

older women: 30% (total: 23%) Low skilled: 58% (total: 28%) Second job: particularly women: 6.6% (total: 3.6%) Earnings: ca. 30% below average (limited data)


14

Matching supply and demand

• Asynchrony between skills supply and demand adjustments

• Structural or transitional mismatches?

• Quantitative or qualitative mismatches

EDEX project conclusions: Supply of qualified people is relatively independent of demand

Demand for qualifications follows supply (Béduwé and Planas,

2003)


15

Reasons for skill mismatches

• ‘Overqualification’

• Structural unemployment

• Voluntary or not?

• Temporary phenomena in the process of school-to-work transition

• Difficult employment for people re-entering work

• Disparities of economic and employment opportunities between countries – brain drain

more research is needed!


16

Implications of skill mismatch and challenges for policy

• Waste of human and financial resources

• Endangers transition to knowledge society

• Counteracts future upskilling needs, also in context of demographic decline

• Disadvantages in early work career may hardly be reversed high future costs

• Impairs people’s motivation to upskill and participate in lifelong learning


17

Thank you for your attention!

[email protected]

Manfred Tessaring Cedefop Polarisation of skills and jobs?

Documents

Transcript of Manfred Tessaring Cedefop Polarisation of skills and jobs?