Mandarin Version : Market Technical Reading - Rotational Interests On Mid-caps And Lower Liners To...

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2010年 9月 22日

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每日交投策略∶

♦ 一如所料，本地股市又再尝试启动涨势，并于昨日重新挑战上周五的 1,479.59点高点。

♦ 虽然它未能超越近日的高峰，但在近来不断改善的市场信心和交投量下，我们相信，该指数最早将在今日取下 1,479.59

点。

♦ 一旦破除上周五的高点，这将促使我们进一步看俏富时综指的短期展望，并将会推高它冲破位于 1,490.50 点至 1,497.64

点之间的技术缺口。之后，才放眼挑战 1,524.69点历史巅峰。

♦ 此外，从不断增加的散户参与看来，我们预计中型资本股价和低线股的购兴将会在来日增加。

♦ 目前，这轮上升趋势将会获得 10日移动平均线（即 1,456点）和 1,450点突破点的支撑。

资料来源∶RHBInvest & 彭博社（ Bloomberg）

表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品

本地主要指数收盘

变动

（点）

变动

（%）

富时大马综合指数 1,475.99 6.30 0.4

富时大马 100指数 9,647.77 41.37 0.4

富时大马创业板 3,843.19 -36.75 -0.9

各大海外指数

道琼斯工商指数 10,761.03 7.41 0.1

纳斯达克指数 2,349.35 -6.48 -0.3

标准与普尔 500 1,139.78 -2.93 -0.3

伦敦金融时报指数 5,576.19 -26.35 -0.5

恒生指数 22,002.59 25.25 0.1

雅加达综合指数 3,365.04 -5.94 -0.2

东京日经 225指数 9,602.11 -23.98 -0.2

首尔综合指数 1,832.63 Closed Closed

上海综合指数 2,591.55 2.84 0.1

曼谷综合指数 937.21 14.15 1.5

新加坡海峡时报指数 3,095.39 14.41 0.5

台湾加权指数 8,196.40 9.44 0.1

印度 Sensex指数 20,001.55 95.45 0.5

主要原产品

纽约商品交易所

（NYMEX）原油期货

（每桶 /美元） 73.52 -1.34 -1.8MDEX原棕油 – 第 3

个月（每公吨 /令吉） 2,679.00 -29.00 -1.1

美国利率目前最新

隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动 10年 9月

21日

下个联邦公开市场操作

委员会（FOMC）会议 2010年 11月 2日-3日

表 1 ∶每日统计

股市摘要

9 月

14 日

9 月

15 日

9 月

17 日

9 月

20 日

9 月

21 日

上升股 504 299 446 316 368

下跌股 274 416 296 417 345

平盘 269 301 268 269 319

无交易 312 349 350 359 322

市场资本

总成交量

（百万股） 1,040 725 968 851 1,050

总成交值

（百万令吉） 2,128 1,436 1,906 1,382 1,514

外汇

令吉兑美元 3.1045 3.1150 3.1010 3.1015 3.1000



2010年 9月 22日

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技术解读∶

♦ 与现货市场相比下，吉隆坡期货市场在谨慎的交投下只能小幅上升。

♦ 由于交易员等待美国联邦储备局（ Federal Reserve ）的利率结果和美国当局可能会公布更多潜在的宽松措施，结果使到

他们选择延后交易。

♦ 收盘时，吉隆坡综合期货指数（FKLI）的 9 月份期约只起 3.00 点或 0.20%至 1,478.50点。它全日处于 1,473.50点低

点和 1,484.00点高点之间。

♦ 虽然 FKLI无法冲破上周五的 1,485.50点高点，但它所形成的一根小阳烛，显示上升趋势有望延伸下去。

♦ 在获得不断趋高的 10日移动平均线（即 1,458点）和 1,450点重要关卡的扶持下，期指料将维持看俏。

♦ 一旦交投动力升温，这将会带动它突破 1,485.5 点高点，以上挑位于 1,490 点至 1,502.50 点之间的技术缺口，还有于

2008年 1月所创下的 1,536点历史巅峰。

♦ 有鉴于此，我们继续看俏 FKLI的后市展望。

每日交投策略∶

♦ 图表中的小阳烛显示买盘动力有望在今日升温。

♦ 我们认为，交易员应继续“做多”，以放眼取得更多升势。

♦ 我们预料，今日的交投波幅位于 1,473点至 1,493点之间。

表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数（FKLI）收盘

FKLI (月份

)合约开盘最高最低收盘

变动（点）结算成交量未平仓宗数

10年 9月 1476.00 1484.00 1473.50 1478.50 3.00 1478.50 4161 20327

10年 10月 1477.50 1483.50 1474.00 1479.00 3.00 1479.00 307 711

10年 12月 1479.00 1481.00 1476.50 1477.00 0.50 1477.50 31 363

11年 3月 1480.00 1480.00 1475.00 1475.00 -1.50 1476.00 9 131

资料来源∶大马交易所（ Bursa Malaysia）

图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数（FKLI）（日线图）图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数（FKLI）（单日线图）



2010年 9月 22日

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美国股市的交投指引∶

♦ 虽然美联储局暗示它已准备采取更多措施来刺激经济成长，华尔街股市却回吐中午的升势而以起落参半的姿态收市。

♦ 较早前，投资者对于 8 月的房屋动工取得强于预期的 10.5% 增幅后表现小心翼翼。不过，当联储局表示，鉴于担心低通膨

水平，如今它已准备进一步放宽货币政策后，股市便即刻急升。另外，联储局也如期地将利率维持不变。

♦ 可是，在临尾出现强大套利压力下，该涨势逐渐消失，而主要指数也以起落参半收盘。

♦ 由于对高企的石油库存感到忧虑，空方再度重现以压低原油价格。收市时，已届满的美国轻质原油期货的 10 月份期约重挫

1.34美元或 1.8% 至每桶 73.52美元。

♦ 闭市时，Adobe Systems在延伸交易时间暴跌 15%，基于其营业额的预测无法符合预期。

技术解读∶

道琼斯工商指数 (Dow Jones I ndustrial Average或 DJIA)

♦ 受到强大套利压力所打压，美国道琼斯工商指数（DJIA）昨日收窄早前的涨幅至只有 7.41 点或 0.07%而已，收

10,761.03点。它一度曾猛涨 80点。

♦ 随着它从全日的10,833.39点回调，它以一根潜在的“星线”（star）报收，显示即日将会出现利淡的反转趋势。

♦ 再者，它也无法冲破 10,850 点障碍线，再加上随机指标也发出一个新“卖出”讯号，它可能会进一步走低至 21 日移动平

均线（即 10,354点）。

♦ 反之，假如它能突围 10,850点关卡，这将会推动它重新挑战 11,250点阻力点。

纳斯达克指数 (Nasdaq Composite 或 Nasdaq)

♦ 由于纳斯达克指数昨日以一根“利淡孕线”告收，而回跌 6.48点或 0.28%至 2,349.35点，这标志着近日突破动力已缓和

下来。

♦ 加上随机指标也出现一个新“卖出”讯号，这也增加了它回档的风险。

♦ 无论如何，如果它在进行喘息后仍能企稳于 2,330点水平以上，那么其上升趋势有望恢复，以上探 2,470点阻力水平。

图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数（DJIA）(日线图) 图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数（Nasdaq）(日线图)



2010年 9月 22日

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每日技术焦点∶

肯油企业 Kencana Petroleum (5122)

放眼将在近日内重新试探1.72 令吉强大障碍水平…

♦ 肯油企业在 2010年 1月迅速破除 1.72令吉强大阻力水平后，便转入利淡趋势内。

♦ 在短期内，它大幅跌破 1.50令吉关卡以下，不过它还是成功在 2010年 4月恢复至 1.68令吉。

♦ 尽管如此，其技术走势再次于 5月底转为恶化，并导致该股暴跌至 1.26令吉低点。与此同时，其动力解读也严重超卖。

♦ 不过，当 10 日移动平均线复苏至 40 日移动平均线（即靠近 1.50 令吉重要水平）时，它便在 6 月确认一轮技术反弹的形

成。

♦ 随着动力转强，该股也逐渐收复 1.50令吉关卡，并形成了一道基础。过后，它才发动另一轮涨势。

♦ 从它获得 10 日和 40 日移动平均线的强力扶持看来，该股昨日一度达到 1.69 令吉高点，之后才以一根巨大利多阳烛收

1.66令吉。

♦ 这表示今日将会出现跟进买盘动力。换言之，该股将放眼在近日内重新试探 1.72令吉关卡。

♦ 再加上短期动力也转俏，因此若它能在这轮突围 1.72 令吉关卡，那么它将会迈向接近 1.90 令吉阻力水平的历史高峰前

进。

技术解读∶

♦ 1 0 日移动平均线（10-day SMA） : RM1.598

♦ 4 0 日移动平均线（40-day SMA） : RM1.542

♦ 支撑水平 : IS = RM1.50 S1 = RM1.23 S2 = RM1.05

♦ 阻力水平 : IR = RM1.72 R1 = RM1.90

图 7∶ 肯油企业（ Kencana）（日线图）图 8∶ 肯油企业（单日线图）



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IMP ORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Theopinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ orbe contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to beconstrued as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in anymanner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated personsmay from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.

This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectivesof persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluateparticular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment orstrategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents acceptsany liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.

RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providinginvestment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHBGroup may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equitysecurities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.

“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or otherservices from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.

This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflectinformation known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.

The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation basedupon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.

Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.

RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommendedsecurities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.

This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for theactions of third parties in this respect.

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