Managing the recovery challenge in Sudan
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Transcript of Managing the recovery challenge in Sudan
United NationsSudan
Managing the recovery challengein Sudan
Slide 1Dec-09
United NationsSudan
A. The recovery challenge
B. Sudan’s situation in perspective
Aid profile
Basic needs
Governance and state capacity
Security in the South
C. Key priorities for 2010 and beyond
Slide 2Dec-09
Contents
United NationsSudan
A. The recovery challenge
Slide 3Dec-09
United NationsSudan
The importance of getting the timing right
Slide 4Dec-09
Aid flows in post-conflict situations
Source: United Nations Sudan
Time
Resources
t 0t -2 t +2 t +4
$
The recovery challenge
Development aid• Poverty-reducing, long-term support
• Led by national actors and priorities
• Based on Paris Declaration principles
Humanitarian aid• Life-saving, short-term action
• Based on neutrality, independence and impartiality
years
United NationsSudan
Managing the recovery challenge
Slide 5Dec-09
Six key interventions in post-conflict environments
Key interventions
Assess the needs
Manage expectations
Improve basic services visibly
Make people feel safe
Ensure good governanceBuild state capacity quickly
1
6
5
2
3
4
United NationsSudan
B. Sudan’s situation in perspective
Slide 6Dec-09
Aid profile
United NationsSudan
Aid flows to Liberia
Slide 7
Total foreign assistance by type in US$ million
0
250
500
750
1,000
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1995 2001 2007
Source: OECD CRS Database (10/2009), Commitments (current USD), without peacekeeping costs
Dec-09
Development aid as share of total
Humanitarian
Development
United NationsSudan
Aid flows to Afghanistan
Slide 8
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1995 2001 2007
Dec-09
Total foreign assistance by type in US$ million
Development aid as share of total
Humanitarian
Development
Source: OECD CRS Database (10/2009), Commitments (current USD), without peacekeeping costs
United NationsSudan
Aid flows to the Democratic Republic of Congo
Slide 9
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1995 2001 2007
Dec-09
Total foreign assistance by type in US$ million
Development aid as share of total
HumanitarianDevelopment
Source: OECD CRS Database (10/2009), Commitments (current USD), without peacekeeping costs
United NationsSudan
Aid flows to Sudan
Slide 10
0
550
1,100
1,650
2,200
2,750
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1995 2001 2007
Dec-09
Total foreign assistance by type in US$ million
Development aid as share of total
Humanitarian
Development
Source: OECD CRS Database (10/2009), Commitments (current USD), without peacekeeping costs
United NationsSudan
B. Sudan’s situation in perspective
Slide 11Dec-09
Aid profile
Basic needs
United NationsSudan
Sudan’s human development indicators have improved
Slide 12
Source: UNDP Human Development Report 2009, countries with human development index values higher than 0.46 and lower than 0.5 in 2000, 2000 = 100
Dec-09
Improvement in Sudan’s Human Development Index compared to its peer group in 2000
1999 2001 2003 2005 20072000
BangladeshNigeria
Papua New G.
HaitiGhana
Mauritania
Malawi
Timor-LesteCote d’Ivoire
Sudan (HDI 2000=0.491; 2007=0.531=150/180)
100
+2%
+10%
+4%
+6%
+8%
HDI Change (2000=100)
rela
tive
to 2
000
United NationsSudan
Overall, Sudan’s economy is growing quickly
Slide 13
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005100
150
200
250
300
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook (2009)
Dec-09
Nominally, per capita incomes (PPP) doubled in Africa since 1985, but tripled in Sudan
Sudan
Africa
Developing countries
2007=100
rela
tive
to
1985
United NationsSudan
Sudan’s population is growing faster than the region’s
Slide 14
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005100
120
140
160
180
200
Source: Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics, US Census Bureau (International Database), www.ssrc.org for urbanization
Dec-09
From 1983 to 2008 Sudan’s population rose from 19m to 39m. It will reach 52m in 2020.
Sudan
Northern Africa
Africa
1983=100 2008
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
Est. level of urbanization in Sudan
rela
tive
to 1
983
United NationsSudan
Different challenges in a vast country
Slide 15Dec-09
A country the size of a continent Challenges by region
0 200 500km
Rwanda
Burundi
Area comparatives (1:1)
• Darfur: IDP return, hum. aid to 4.7m people, community level recovery
• East: forgotten crisis, protracted refugee situation, health crisis
• Three Areas: PCA, Misseryia migration, recovery/conflict resolution
• South: budget pressure, tribal conflict, food crisis, protection
• National: CPA milestones, GoSS and GNU cooperation, Darfur peace process
France
NL
Afghanistan Zimbabwe
SierraLeone
United NationsSudan
Extreme regional differences
Slide 16Dec-09
Net primary school attendance (%) Net primary school att. (bottom 10, world)
Source: Sudan Household Health Survey (SHHS) (2006)
0
20
40
60
80
100South
Darfur
22%
36%
38%
40%
45%
47%
47%
50%
51%
52%
Somalia
Chad
Niger
Liberia
Ethiopia
Burkina Faso
Eritrea
Haiti
Guinea
Congo, Dem. R.
Source: UNICEF, State of the World’s Children (2009)
North and rest
United NationsSudan
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Extreme regional differences
Slide 17Dec-09
Maternal mortality (per 100,000 births) Maternal mortality (bottom 10, world)
Source: Sudan Household Health Survey (SHHS) (2006)
2,100
1,800
1,800
1,500
1,400
1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,100
Sierra Leone
Afghanistan
Niger
Chad
Angola
Somalia
Rwanda
Liberia
Burundi
Congo, Dem. R.
Source: UNICEF, State of the World’s Children (2009)
South
Darfur
North and rest
United NationsSudan
0
20
40
60
80
100
Extreme regional differences
Slide 18Dec-09
Access to improved sanitation (%)
Source: Sudan Household Health Survey (SHHS) (2006)
South
Darfur
5%
7%
9%
10%
11%
11%
12%
12%
13%
19%
Eritrea
Niger
Chad
Ghana
Ethiopia
Sierra Leone
Madagascar
Togo
Burkina Faso
Guinea
Access to sanitation (bottom 10, world)
North and rest
Source: UNICEF, State of the World’s Children (2009)
United NationsSudan
Extreme regional differences
Slide 19Dec-09
Infant mortality (bottom 10, world)
Source: Sudan Household Health Survey (SHHS) (2006), National Census (1993)
0
40
80
120
160South*
2006
1993
Infant mortality in Sudan (per 1,000)
165
155
124
124
118
117
116
115
113
109
Afghanistan
Sierra Leone
Chad
Equatorial Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Mali
Angola
Mozambique
CAR
Rwanda
Source: UNICEF, State of the World’s Children (2009)
* State-level data not available
North and rest
United NationsSudan
Social services receive insufficient public funds
Slide 20
Source: Government of Southern Sudan, Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (01/2009)
Dec-09
Composition of GOSS public expenditure in 2008
Infrastructure$373m (14.2%)
Security$862m (32.9%)
Transfers$207m (7.9%)
Health$52m (2.0%)
Economic functions$89m (3.4%)
Rural dev. / environ.$90m (3.4%)
Education$133m (5.1%)
Public administration$235m (9.0%)
Rule of law$236m (9.0%)
Accountability$300m (11.5%)
Social affairs$39m (1.5%)
United NationsSudan
Most aid to Sudan is humanitarian. Most of it is food.
Slide 21
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: OCHA Financial Tracking Service (10/2009), dotted line indicates data not available
Dec-09
Food aid, agriculture and early recovery as a share of total humanitarian aid
50%
100%
0%
Food aid
AgricultureEarly recovery
59%($684m)
5%($58m)
United NationsSudan
B. Sudan’s situation in perspective
Slide 22Dec-09
Aid profile
Basic needs
Governance and state capacity
United NationsSudan
Rise in public revenue challenges state capacity
Slide 23Dec-09
Government revenue by source (billion $) Transfers to the South (billion $)
Source: Sudan Ministry of Finance, IMF Staff-monitored programme, International Financial Statistics
1994 1998 2002 2006 20100
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004 2006 2008 20100.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Taxes
Other (incl. oil)
United NationsSudan
Weak government institutions
Slide 24Dec-09
Government effectiveness Control of corruption
Source: World Bank, World Governance Indicators (2009)
South Africa
Ghana
Ethiopia
Cameroon
Nigeria
Kenya
Cote d'Ivoire
Guinea
Zimbabwe
Sudan
0 25 50 75 100
South Africa
Ghana
Ethiopia
Kenya
Cameroon
Nigeria
Cote d'Ivoire
Guinea
Sudan
Zimbabwe
0 25 50 75 100
Percentile rank Percentile rank
United NationsSudan
Weak government institutions
Slide 25Dec-09
Regulatory quality Rule of law
Source: World Bank, World Governance Indicators (2009)
South Africa
Ghana
Ethiopia
Kenya
Cameroon
Nigeria
Sudan
Cote d'Ivoire
Guinea
Zimbabwe
0 25 50 75 100
South Africa
Ghana
Kenya
Nigeria
Cameroon
Ethiopia
Cote d'Ivoire
Guinea
Sudan
Zimbabwe
0 25 50 75 100
Percentile rank Percentile rank
United NationsSudan
Low share of aid devoted to capacity building
Slide 26
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1995 2001 2007
Source: OECD CRS (10/2009), Commitments (curr. USD), Aid for purposes of institutional and government capacity building, training, research (DAC codes ending 10, 81, 82, ...)
Dec-09
Institutional capacity building as a share of total foreign assistance
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1995 2001 20070%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1995 2001 2007
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1995 2001 20070%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1995 2001 20070%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1995 2001 2007
Afghanistan Dem. Republic of Congo Sudan
Sierra Leone Liberia Iraq
United NationsSudan
B. Sudan’s situation in perspective
Slide 27Dec-09
Aid profile
Basic needs
Governance and state capacity
Security in the South
United NationsSudan
Renewed tensions in Southern Sudan
Slide 28Dec-09
Clashes, intertribal conflict, LRA incursions More than 332,000 displaced in 2009
0 200 500km
Major clashes
LRA activity
Intertribal conflict
0.8
31
2.4
25
12258
1421
76
IDPs
United NationsSudan
United NationsSudan
C. Key priorities for 2010 and beyond
Slide 29Dec-09
United NationsSudan
Key priorities for 2010 and beyond
Slide 30Dec-09
What we have to get right
Key interventions
Save lives
Recovery challenge in Darfur
Strengthen governance
Build state capacity
Lay foundations for recoveryHelp stabilize and secure
5
6
1
4
2
3
• Coordinate response to acute crises• Ensure essential services and safety nets• Avoid that humanitarian aid substitutes for
lack of recovery and development
• Continue humanitarian action, but seek recovery local recovery opportunities
• Mobilize recovery and development actors and funding now
• Fast-track MDG achievement• Support transition to government-led
development.
• Create accountability frameworks• Review and clean up public pay rolls• Strengthen public financial mgt.• Juba compact
• Mitigate conflicts and reduce threats • Focus UN support on CPA milestones• Coordinate with UNAMID, UNMIS, JMST
• Build capacity to plan, coordinate and deliver assistance at state level
• Rapid capacity placement• Capacity development working group
United NationsSudan
Darfur: make the integration with UNAMID work
Slide 31Dec-09 | Prepared by Kersten Jauer and Melanie Hauenstein
United NationsSudan