Managing Disasters, Sustaining Development in the …...Hindu Kush Himalayan region The region has...

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development

Kathmandu, Nepal

Managing Disasters, Sustaining Development in the Hindu Kush Himalayas

Aditi Mukherji

Theme Leader, Water and AirICIMOD

[email protected]

1983 - A Regional Intergovernmental Organisation is Born

UNESCO facilitates the establishment of ICIMOD

First ICIMOD Board of Governors Meet August 1983, Kathmandu

Regional Charter of HKH Eight Countries and Act of Parliament ofNepal for Headquarter Agreement

Vision, Mission, and Governance

GovernanceBoard of Governors (Government

representatives and independent members)

Programme Advisory CommitteeICIMOD Support GroupFinance CommitteeMission

To enable sustainable and resilient mountain development for improved and equitable livelihoods through knowledge and regional cooperation.

VisionMen, women, and children of the Hindu Kush Himalayas enjoy improved wellbeing in a healthy mountain environment.

ICIMOD in IndiaFocal Ministry: Ministry of Environment and ForestsNodal Institution: G.B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and DevelopmentPartners: 32 (2012)


Kathmandu, Nepal

The Himalayas are prone to disasters

Disaster statistics from 1990-2012Hindu Kush Himalayan region

The region has had an average of

76 disaster events each year.

On average, more than 36,000

people are killed and 178 million affected each year due to

natural disasters in the region.

Source: EM-DAT – The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database

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One-third of these disasters are floods

Transboundary floods - shared vulnerability across national borders

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Types of floods in the HKH region

Types of Floods

Riverine Floods Flash Floods

- Landslide dam outburst floods

- Glacial lake outburst floods- Rapid snow melt- Cloud bursts

Flash floods result in higher mortality rates

• Transboundary rivers – shared vulnerability across national borders

• Lack of exchange of real-time data especially across national boundaries –inadequate lead time

• Diversity of technical, scientific, and institutional know-how

• Some bilateral agreements/treaties exist

• Opportunity for regional cooperation to prevent disasters

Floods are often transboundaryand data sharing mechanisms don’t exist

Transboundary floods have greater impact on lives and property

Globally, 10% of all floods are transboundary, and they cause over 30% of all flood casualties and account for close to 60% of all those displaced by floods. Bakker, 2006

But transboundarycooperation and data sharing can make a

difference

Landslide dam outburst leads to floods: Yigong, China

• 9 April 2000: Landslide blockedthe Yigong River, a tributary of the Yarlung Zangbo(Brahmaputra) River

• The outburst occurred on 10 June 2000 and created a huge flash flood of up to 1.26x105 m3/s

• Extensive damage, but no casualties in China

• In India, heavy casualities- 30 dead- >100 missing- >50,000 homeless- damage of USD 22.9 million

India and China did not have data sharing agreement in place in 2000

Pareechu landslide dam outburst in 2004 when there was a data sharing agreement in place

• Data sharing policy developed between India and China in 2003

• 22 June 2004: Landslide blocked the Pareechu River in Tibet, the upper reaches of Sutlej River

• Chinese authorities communicated to their Indian counterparts well before and when the breach occured

• 56 villages along the Sutlej from Kinnaur to Bilaspurwere identified at risk

• The dam burst on 25 June 2005• The direct cost of flood damage was an estimated

USD 200 million • There were no human casualties because of prior

communication from the upstream country

1 month after landslide

2.5 months after landslide

After landslide dam outburst


Kathmandu, Nepal

Why should we care about disasters in the HKH?

HKH is the source of ten major river basins

210 million people in the HKH

1.3 billion people downstream

3 billion people benefit from food and energy


Kathmandu, Nepal

Supports extensive irrigation systems

Huge hydropower potential >300,000 MW

Basins support some of the most populated areas on the globe

Home to4 of the 34 Global Biodiversity Hotspots, 60 Eco-regions, 488 Pas, and 330 Important Bird Areas


Kathmandu, Nepal

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs)

1973(photo ICIMOD archive)

2011(photo Panday)

Mt. Machhapuchhare, Nepal, 6993 meters

Snow cover over parts of the Himalaya has been decreasing…

Rikha Samba Glacier, Hidden Valley Lower Mustang

Approximate annual retreat rate in 34 years is about 10 m/y

Glacier terminus in 1978

350 m

GEN Google Earth

PradeepPradeep K K MoolMool

2006 photograph of Imjaglacier

(Photo: Giovanni Kappenberger

courtesy of Alton C Byers)

1956 photograph of Imjaglacier (Photo: Fritz Muller;

courtesy of Jack Ives)

Retreat of glaciers and formation of glacial lakes, e.g. Imja Lake in Nepal


Imja Lake growing in size over the years

• Imja developed as supra ponds in late ‘50s.

• The seven supra ponds existed on the glacier surface in late ‘50s.

• Before ‘80s was amalgamation phase- merging of supra ponds.

• Late ‘80s are rapid expansion period towards the glacier terminus.

• The lake is still expanding.

Expansion of Imja Oct 2010

GLOFs

• What are GLOFs?• When glaciers retreat, they leave behind

glacial lakes impounded by moraines• Moraines are not stable structures and

when they topple, immense volume of water from glacial lakes gets released

• Causing devastating floods

Why should we care about GLOFs? Because most hydropower plants are downstream of potentially dangerous glacial lakes

• About 56 GLOF events in the HKH region to date

• Potentially dangerous lakes located upstream of settlements and major infrastructure

• Transboundary GLOFs: 10 of 24 GLOF events in Nepal originated in China

• Transboundary approach is crucial to address and manage the issue

Example: Koshi Basin

PradeepPradeep K K MoolMoolSite of civil structures of Site of civil structures of NamcheNamche ((ThameThame) Small ) Small HydelHydelProject, which were destroyed by the Dig Project, which were destroyed by the Dig TshoTsho GLOFGLOF

Dig Dig TshoTsho Lake burst out in 4 August 1985 Lake burst out in 4 August 1985 releasing 8 million mreleasing 8 million m33 of water with 500mof water with 500m33/s /s discharge at breach damaging discharge at breach damaging ThameThame Small Small HydelHydel Project, Project, bridges, trekking trails, villages, bridges, trekking trails, villages, and agricultural lands as well as the loss of and agricultural lands as well as the loss of human live and other infrastructure.human live and other infrastructure. along the along the flood path of GLOF flood path of GLOF

Past GLOF events in Nepal: Dig Past GLOF events in Nepal: Dig TshoTsho event in 1985 event in 1985

Zhangzangbo GLOF (1964, 1981), Poiqu/Sun Koshi basin, China/Nepal

• Zhangzangbo-cho lake in Tibet burst twice in 1964 and 1981.

• The burst discharge in 1981 was 1,600 m3/s

• The amount of released water was about 19x106 m3

• This GLOF caused enormous damage in Nepal, which included complete destruction of the Friendship Bridge and two other bridges, extensive damage to roads and the diversion wire of Sun Koshi Hydropower Project

The impact of any future GLOF event is likely to be much larger than that of previous events in 1964 and 1981


What can we do? What can we do? Map Glacial Lakes as a first stepMap Glacial Lakes as a first step

Basin Code Total Number Total Area(km2)

No. % Area %Amu Darya Am 1465 7.3 107.9 5.5Brahmaputra Br 9983 49.4 1330.6 68.0Ganges Ga 3810 18.9 241.5 12.4Indus In 4807 23.8 267.8 13.7Irrawaddy Ir 136 0.7 7.8 0.4Total 20201 100.0 1955.7 100.0


Rank lakes based on physical and Rank lakes based on physical and socioeconomic criteria as a second stepsocioeconomic criteria as a second step


No. Name of the lake Lake ID Number of 2009 Study

Category

11 TshoTsho RolpaRolpa kota_gl_0009kota_gl_0009 II22 Lower Lower BarunBarun koar_gl_0009koar_gl_0009 II33 ImjaImja kodu_gl_0184kodu_gl_0184 II44 LumdingLumding kodu_gl_0036kodu_gl_0036 II55 West West ChamjangChamjang kodu_gl_0242kodu_gl_0242 II

66 ThulagiThulagi (Dona)(Dona) gamar_gl_0018gamar_gl_0018 II77 NagmaNagma kotr_gl_0133kotr_gl_0133 IIII88 HunguHungu kodu_gl_0241kodu_gl_0241 IIII99 Tam Tam PokhariPokhari kodu_gl_0193kodu_gl_0193 IIII1010 HunguHungu kodu_gl_0229kodu_gl_0229 IIII11 kotr_gl_0191* III12 gaka_gl_0004* III13 Barun koar_gl_0012* III14 kodu_gl_0238* III15 (Q) gabu_gl_0009 III16 (H) kodu_gl_0220 III17 koar_gl_0016* III18 (S) gaka_gl_0008 III19 (B) kotr_gl_0111 III20 East Hungu 2 kodu_gl_0239 III21 Kaligandaki (T) gaka_gl_0022 III*Not listed as potentially dangerous in the 2001 inventory

Note:

Categories among the 21 Prioritized Potentially Dangerous Lakes

I. six of these were considered potentially dangerous lakes requiring detailed field investigation and mapping,

II.four potentially dangerous lakes which require close monitoring with reconnaissance field surveys, and

III.another eleven lakes which require periodic observation

List of potentially critical glacial lakes in Nepal identified in the 2010 study and their priority category (ICIMOD, 2011)


Quantify Potential GLOF Risk on human population

Glacial Lakes Imja Tsho Rolpa Thulagi Sunkoshi Average

Flood Scenario Model Max Model Max Model Max Model Max Model Max Household 1075 1511 422 1166 173 637 866 2519 634 1349

Population 5784 7762 1985 5183 953 3808 5782 16313 3626 7772Houses 445 808 145 330 125 298 731 2113 362 797Land (ha) 314.3 377.8 26.8 129.3 32.6 109.2 36.2 166.5 102.5 179.8


And infrastructure

Glacial lake Dudhkoshi (Imja)

Tamakoshi (Tsho Rolpa)

Marsyandi (Thulagi)

Bhotekoshi (Lumu Chimi) Average

Infrastructure Model Max Model Max Model Max Model Max Model Max Schools (no) 3 3 0 2 3 4 6 13 3 6 Office building (no) 3 4 0 2 5 6 15 17 6 7 Temple (no) 2 3 2 11 6 13 7 10 4 9 Trail (km) 64.7 74.2 18.3 40.7 4.2 7.7 1.4 20 22.2 35.7 Road (km) 4.5 4.5 3 9.8 1 2.2 24 36.5 8.1 13.3 Embankment (km) 0.5 0.5 9.85 9.85 3.6 7.4 5 5 4.7 5.7 Bridge (no) 25 25 23 23 35 35 17 30 25 28 Hydropower plant (no) 1 1 0 0 6 6 3 3 3 3 Irrigation canal (km) 0.5 0.5 7.3 16 0 0 0 0 2.0 4.1 Water mill (no) 5 5 0 1 4 6 4 11 3 6 Transmission line (km) 4.5 7 1 2.5 4 6 14 24.5 5.9 10.0


How to manage GLOF Risk? GLOF Risk?

GLOFs are risks, but with proper management, they can be turned into resources


Comprehensive report on glacial lakes and Comprehensive report on glacial lakes and GLOF of the HKH region GLOF of the HKH region http://books.icimod.org/demo/index.php/downloads/pd/692

Ives, JD; Shrestha, RB; Mool, PK (2010) Formation of glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas and GLOF risk assessment. Kathmandu: ICIMOD

Glacial Lakes and Associated Floods in the Glacial Lakes and Associated Floods in the Hindu KushHindu Kush--HimalayasHimalayashttp://www.icimod.org/publications/index.php/search/publication/686

Comprehensive report on glacial lakes and Comprehensive report on glacial lakes and GLOF of NepalGLOF of Nepalhttp://www.icimod.org/publications/index.php/search/publication/750

ICIMOD (2011) Glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst floods in Nepal. Kathmandu: ICIMOD

http://www.icimod.org/dvds/201104_GLOF/

Take home messages

• HKH is a data scarce region, making prediction even more tricky that it already is!

• Much of weather events are transboundary, so urgent need for transboundary cooperation and data sharing!

• Not all gloom and doom, risks like those of GLOF can be managed by bringing together science and policy together!

Thank youThank you

Managing Disasters, Sustaining Development in the …...Hindu Kush Himalayan region The region has...

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