Malthusian Theory of Population

Outline:

1.Principal of Population

2.The Malthusian Population Trap

3.Solution to Malthusian Trap

4.Limitations of the Malthusian Model

5.The Micro-economic Household Theory of Fertility

Outline:

6.Demand for Children Equation

7.The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries

8.Criticism on Malthus Theory

9.Implementation in Pakistan

10.Neo-Malthusian Theory

Principal of Population

"Population, when unchecked, increases at a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio.

A slight acquaintance with numbers will show the immensity of the first power in with the second."

Principal of Population(Contn’d)

Population must always be kept down to the level of the means of subsistence.”

Malthus was the first to inquire into “the means by which this level is effected.”

Principal of Population(Contn’d)

Man has no natural predators (save for other men).

"The passion between the sexes has appeared in every age to be so nearly the same, that it may always be considered, in algebraic language as a given quantity."

Population, when unchecked, will double itself every twenty-five years.

"...Supposing the present population equal to a thousand million, the human species would increase as the numbers 1, 2, 4, 8,16, 32,64,128,256, and subsistence as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9...

The Malthusian Population Trap

The Malthusian Population Trap Suggests that the population will be forced to live at the subsistence level of income as population growth outstrips growth in the supply of food. Population grows at a geometric rate while food supplies expand only at an arithmetic rate Per capita income would have the tendency to fall so low as to lead to a stable population existing barely at or slightly above the subsistence level.

Solutions Preventive checks (birth control, moral restraint) Positive checks (starvation, disease, wars)

Thomas Malthus argued that because of the natural human urge to reproduce human population increases geometrically (1, 2, 4, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, etc.). However, food supply, at most, can only increase arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, etc.).

Solution to Malthusian Trap

Limitations of the Malthusian Model 1. They do not take adequate account of te role and

impact of technological progess.2. They are based on a hypothesis about a macro

relationship between population gowth and levels of per capita income that does not stand up to imperical testing.

3. They focus on the wrong variable, per capita income, as the pricipal determinant of population growth rates. A much better and more valid approach to the question of population and development centers on the micro economics of family size decision making in which individual, and not aggregate, levels of living become the principal deteminant of a family’s decision to have more or fewer children.

The Micro-economic Household Theory of Fertility

The Micro-economic Household Theory of Fertility People choose how many children to "consume" as part of their utility maximization problem. Children in LDCs can be thought of as investment goods. Demand for children is determined by Family preferences for a certain number of surviving (usually male) children Price or “opportunity cost” of rearing children (mother’s time to earn, educational attainment of children relative to earning potential) By levels of family income.

The microeconomic theory of fertility is useful here because it asks the question why a family would decide to rear children in the first place. The economics of the family asks what kinds of incentives are involved. After all, the decisions being made are often not based on society’s natural capital, or local wage levels. Family decisions are often made at the microeconomic rather than the macroeconomic level.

Demand for Children Equation

Where Cd is the demand for surviving

children Y is the level of household income Pc is the “net” price of children Px is price of all other goods tx is the tastes for goods relative to

children

nxtPPYfC xxcd ,...,1),,,,(

Under neoclassical conditions, we would expect:

0YCd

0

c

d

PC

0

x

d

PC

0

x

d

tC

nxtPPYfC xxcd ,...,1),,,,(

The Causes of High Fertility in Developing Countries: The

Household Model

The microeconomic household theory of fertility

The demand for children in developing countries

Some empirical evidenceImplications for development and fertility

Criticism on Malthus Theory

In general, Malthus was criticized on the following points:

(1) He placed undue emphasis on the limitation of the supply of land.

(2) Malthus under-estimated the importance of industrial development.

(3) His religious beliefs prevented him from grasping the possibility of the widespread use of contraceptives.

Implementation in Pakistan

If we concentrate on Malthusian theory we can say that it is true at least for Pakistan. Pakistan’s population is increasing rapidly and it is unable to produce resources at the same rate of as of population growth.

Pakistan is not able to produce sufficient food for its people. People are starving, not able to purchase things of basic necessities.

Neo-Malthusian Theory

Neo-Malthusianism generally refers to people with the same basic concerns as Malthus, who advocate for population control programs, to ensure resources for current and future populations.

Neo-Malthusians seem to differ from Malthus's theories mainly in their enthusiasm for contraceptive techniques