Majority electoral systems: the second ballot & the alternative vote (AV)

Majority electoral systems:Majority electoral systems:the second ballot &the second ballot &

the alternative vote (AV)the alternative vote (AV)

Weekend 3 : Session 2Weekend 3 : Session 2

The problem of majoritiesThe problem of majorities

If there are more than two candidates contesting a If there are more than two candidates contesting a seat at an election, the candidate with the most seat at an election, the candidate with the most votes need not get a majority; here is an example votes need not get a majority; here is an example with 100 voters:with 100 voters:

Candidate X gets 15 votesCandidate X gets 15 votesCandidate Y gets 45 votesCandidate Y gets 45 votesCandidate Z gets 40 votesCandidate Z gets 40 votes

Candidate Y has a plurality of votes (the most) but Candidate Y has a plurality of votes (the most) but not a majority (a majority would be 51 of 100 votes)not a majority (a majority would be 51 of 100 votes)

The problem of majoritiesThe problem of majorities

Question — How to ensure that the winning Question — How to ensure that the winning candidate at an election always gets a majority of candidate at an election always gets a majority of votes?votes?

Answer — By forcing the voter to make a final Answer — By forcing the voter to make a final choice between only two candidates. With only choice between only two candidates. With only two candidates for a seat, one must get a two candidates for a seat, one must get a majoritymajority

But how can this be done?But how can this be done?

First solution: second ballotFirst solution: second ballot

If no candidate gets a majority of votes at an If no candidate gets a majority of votes at an election, hold a second election between the top two election, hold a second election between the top two candidatescandidates

To continue the example, after the first election:To continue the example, after the first election:

Y gets 45 votes (plurality winner, but no majority; Y Y gets 45 votes (plurality winner, but no majority; Y goes to next round of elections)goes to next round of elections)

Z gets 40 votes (2Z gets 40 votes (2ndnd most votes, and Z goes to next most votes, and Z goes to next round of elections)round of elections)

X gets 15 votes (fewest votes; X is excluded)X gets 15 votes (fewest votes; X is excluded)


The 100 voters vote at the second election a week The 100 voters vote at the second election a week later with only two contestants, Y and Z:later with only two contestants, Y and Z:

Y gets 48 votes (only gains three of X’s votes)Y gets 48 votes (only gains three of X’s votes)

Z gets 52 votes (gains 12 of X’s votes) and Z gets 52 votes (gains 12 of X’s votes) and wins a wins a majority!majority!

(This assumes that only those who voted for X in (This assumes that only those who voted for X in the first election changed their vote. Of course, any the first election changed their vote. Of course, any voter is free to change his/her mind between the voter is free to change his/her mind between the two elections!)two elections!)


The second ballot solution guarantees that all elected The second ballot solution guarantees that all elected candidates gain a majority of votes because:candidates gain a majority of votes because:

Either they won a majority at the first round electionEither they won a majority at the first round election Or, where no candidate won a majority at the first Or, where no candidate won a majority at the first

round election in their electoral district, they won a round election in their electoral district, they won a majority at the second round electionmajority at the second round election

But there is another solution; the alternative vote (AV)But there is another solution; the alternative vote (AV)

Second solution: AVSecond solution: AV

The alternative vote (AV) is a way of compressing The alternative vote (AV) is a way of compressing the second ballot solution into a single election so the second ballot solution into a single election so that all successful candidates gain a majority of that all successful candidates gain a majority of votesvotes

If voters could indicate their second choice of If voters could indicate their second choice of candidate at the same time as their first choice, candidate at the same time as their first choice, only one election would be necessaryonly one election would be necessary

But to achieve this, a preferential ballot is requiredBut to achieve this, a preferential ballot is required

Here is an example:Here is an example:

An election with 100 voters to elect An election with 100 voters to elect one representative using AVone representative using AV

There are three candidates:There are three candidates:

Fred (X Party)Fred (X Party)Ling (Y Party)Ling (Y Party)Menka (Z Party)Menka (Z Party)

A voter must rank candidates by placing 1, 2, or 3 A voter must rank candidates by placing 1, 2, or 3 next to the candidates’ names in the order of the next to the candidates’ names in the order of the voter’s preference voter’s preference

For a ballot to be valid, all candidates must be For a ballot to be valid, all candidates must be ranked (compulsory expression of preferences)ranked (compulsory expression of preferences)

The successful candidate must gain a majority of The successful candidate must gain a majority of valid votes (1 more than half the total of valid valid votes (1 more than half the total of valid votes) votes)

AV ballot paper (to elect one representative)

Fred

X party

Ling

Y Party

Menka

Z party

AV ballot paper (all combinations)

Fred

X party

Ling

Y Party

Menka

Z party

AV ballot paper (Fred’s 1st preferences)

Fred

X party

Ling

Y Party

Menka

Z party

AV ballot paper (Ling’s 1st preferences)

Fred

X party

Ling

Y Party

Menka

Z party

AV ballot paper (Menka’s 1st preferences)

Fred

X party

Ling

Y Party

Menka

Z party

Fred

X party15 first preference votes

Ling

Y Party45 first preference votes

Ling is the plurality winner

Menka

Z party40 first preference votes

AV election (to elect one representative)

Fred

X party15 first preference votesAs no candidate has a majority, Fred is excluded as the candidate with the fewest 1st preferences

Ling

Y Party45 first preference votesLing is the plurality winner, but does not have a majority

Menka

Z party40 first preference votesMenka stays in the count



Fred

X partyOf Fred’s 15 first

preferences, 3 are like this

Ling

Y Party3 second preference

go to Ling

Menka

Z party


Fred

X partyOf Fred’s 15 first

preferences, 12 are like this

Ling

Y Party

Menka

Z party12 second preference go to Menka


Fred

X party

15 first preference votes

(Fred is excluded: he has the fewest 1st preferences)

Ling

Y Party

45 first preference votes + 3 of Fred’s 2nd preferences = 48 votes

Ling does not have a majority

Menka

Z party

40 first preference votes + 12 of Fred’s 2nd preferences = 52 votes

Menka has a majority and is elected

Another example of AVAnother example of AV

An animated example of AV (or preferential An animated example of AV (or preferential voting as the Australians call it) can be found on voting as the Australians call it) can be found on the website of the State Electoral Office of South the website of the State Electoral Office of South Australia (look for Counting Methods, Exclusion Australia (look for Counting Methods, Exclusion ‘Bottom up’:‘Bottom up’:

http://www.seo.sa.gov.au/flash.htmhttp://www.seo.sa.gov.au/flash.htm

Why have majority systems Why have majority systems been adopted?been adopted?

To reduce the representation of small parties and To reduce the representation of small parties and force their supporters to align themselves behind force their supporters to align themselves behind one of two large party groupings; the current one of two large party groupings; the current French second ballot system for the National French second ballot system for the National Assembly was introduced for this reasonAssembly was introduced for this reason

To prevent one large party from benefiting from a To prevent one large party from benefiting from a split in the other large party; in Australia AV has split in the other large party; in Australia AV has been used to preserve a non-Labor coalition been used to preserve a non-Labor coalition against the Australian Labor Party; in BC AV was against the Australian Labor Party; in BC AV was introduced to preserve a Liberal/Conservative introduced to preserve a Liberal/Conservative government against the CCF/NDPgovernment against the CCF/NDP

Have they achieved their goal?Have they achieved their goal?

In France, yes, but significant small parties have In France, yes, but significant small parties have continued to have an influence in French politicscontinued to have an influence in French politics

In BC, only partially; the CCF/NDP was kept out of In BC, only partially; the CCF/NDP was kept out of office, but the beneficiary was a new party, Social office, but the beneficiary was a new party, Social CreditCredit

In Australia, yes, but over more than 80 years, In Australia, yes, but over more than 80 years, the beneficiaries have been, at various times, the beneficiaries have been, at various times, large parties on both the left and the rightlarge parties on both the left and the right

Evaluation of majority systemsEvaluation of majority systems

Majority (stable) governmentMajority (stable) government

Majority systems are designed to produce one-Majority systems are designed to produce one-party governments or well established coalition party governments or well established coalition governments with majority support in parliament.governments with majority support in parliament.


Electoral accountabilityElectoral accountability

Two-party competition encouragedTwo-party competition encouraged Contests become government versus opposition Contests become government versus opposition

— voters have a choice of who will be in — voters have a choice of who will be in governmentgovernment

Some ability for small parties to pressure large Some ability for small parties to pressure large parties but only at election timeparties but only at election time

Voters have choice of supporting or opposing Voters have choice of supporting or opposing local candidateslocal candidates

Provision for local representation (if DM is low)Provision for local representation (if DM is low)


Parliamentary check on governmentParliamentary check on government

& role of MLA& role of MLA

Majority government frees government from serious Majority government frees government from serious parliamentary scrutiny; executive dominanceparliamentary scrutiny; executive dominance

Permits premier-dominated style of governmentPermits premier-dominated style of government

All MLAs have the same electoral standing and a All MLAs have the same electoral standing and a similar identifiable constituency (even if the DM similar identifiable constituency (even if the DM varies)varies)


Fair representation of parties and social Fair representation of parties and social groupsgroups

There may be big distortions between vote shares There may be big distortions between vote shares and seat sharesand seat shares

Majority systems have under-represented some Majority systems have under-represented some groups (women and minorities) in electoral and groups (women and minorities) in electoral and legislative politicslegislative politics


Democratic political partiesDemocratic political parties

Majority systems produce a small number of large Majority systems produce a small number of large partiesparties

There is some incentive for small parties to exist and There is some incentive for small parties to exist and to express distinctive intereststo express distinctive interests

Large parties are catch-all but may have to listen to Large parties are catch-all but may have to listen to smaller, more ideological parties at election timesmaller, more ideological parties at election time

Bargaining over government policy takes place Bargaining over government policy takes place within the governing party (or the bureaucracy) onlywithin the governing party (or the bureaucracy) only

Parties can be decentralized to respond to local Parties can be decentralized to respond to local demandsdemands


For more evaluations of majority electoral For more evaluations of majority electoral systems, see the handout for Weekend 3 : systems, see the handout for Weekend 3 : Session 2 at pages 6-7Session 2 at pages 6-7

Assessment: strengths of Assessment: strengths of majority systemsmajority systems

Majority systems regularly produce one party Majority systems regularly produce one party majority government, or well established coalition majority government, or well established coalition governmentsgovernments

Majority systems produce an identifiable local Majority systems produce an identifiable local representatives chosen in and for each arearepresentatives chosen in and for each area

Majority systems limit the representation of minor Majority systems limit the representation of minor political parties but enable their supporters to political parties but enable their supporters to contribute to the choice of large party candidatescontribute to the choice of large party candidates

Governments and members are accountable Governments and members are accountable

through a direct electoral contestthrough a direct electoral contest

Assessment: weaknesses of Assessment: weaknesses of majority systemsmajority systems

Majority systems distort the votes/seats relationshipMajority systems distort the votes/seats relationship They permit the government to dominate They permit the government to dominate

parliamentparliament Minority interests and small parties (unless Minority interests and small parties (unless

geographically concentrated) are not representedgeographically concentrated) are not represented Small party voters appear to have a Small party voters appear to have a

disproportionate effect in some contestsdisproportionate effect in some contests Even with a second ballot or AV preferences, many Even with a second ballot or AV preferences, many

votes do not contribute to electing anyonevotes do not contribute to electing anyone The second ballot requires two sets of electionsThe second ballot requires two sets of elections AV requires a more complicated preferential ballotAV requires a more complicated preferential ballot

Majority systems in BC?Majority systems in BC?

Majority systems could be adopted in BC with Majority systems could be adopted in BC with little change to the style of parliamentary or little change to the style of parliamentary or electoral politics They are, after all, systems electoral politics They are, after all, systems designed to generate majority support and designed to generate majority support and reward the largest two parties, much like the reward the largest two parties, much like the current plurality systems. The biggest change current plurality systems. The biggest change would be to give the supporters of minor parties would be to give the supporters of minor parties the chance of having some influence over which the chance of having some influence over which of the two largest parties won government. And of the two largest parties won government. And AV has been tried in BC for the provincial general AV has been tried in BC for the provincial general elections of 1952 and 1953 elections of 1952 and 1953

Majority electoral systems: the second ballot & the alternative vote (AV)

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