Major Features of Economic Globalisation: Its Evolution & Current Trends By Mohan Guruswamy Centre...
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Transcript of Major Features of Economic Globalisation: Its Evolution & Current Trends By Mohan Guruswamy Centre...
Major Features of Economic Globalisation: Its Evolution & Current Trends
ByMohan Guruswamy
Centre for Policy Alternatives, New Delhi
www.cpasind.com
Brief History of WTO
The 50 years old multilateral trading system under GATT was transformed into WTO in 1995
WTO has 150 members, accounting for over 97% of World Trade
Over the past 50 years merchandise exports grew at an average of 6% annually
In 2000 total trade in the World stood at 22 times the level of 1950
Contd..
Brief History of WTO
From 1947 to 1994, GATT was the forum for negotiating lower customs duty rates and other custom barriers
Since 1995 it deals with specific sectors such as agriculture and textiles, state trading, product standards, subsidies and anti-dumping measures
Growth of World Trade since 1980
(Bn US $)
World 1980 1990 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003
Trade Value
3841 6897 10,216
12,967
12,537
13,080
15,237
Growth (%)
-- 79.56 48.12 30 -3.32 4.33 16.49
Export 1900 3386 5078 6375 6147 6438 7492
Import 1941 3511 5138 6592 6390 6643 7745
Source: Direction of Trade Statistics Year Book, 1987, 1997, 2002, 2004, IMF
Top Traders of the World
Country Value (Expo.)
Share (%)
Rank Value(Impo.
)
Share (%)
Rank
Germany
912.3 10 1 716.9 7.6 2
USA 818.8 8.9 2 1525.5 16.1 1
China 593.3 6.5 3 561.2 5.9 3
Japan 568.8 6.2 4 454.5 4.8 6
India 75.6 0.8 30 60.7 0.6 13
Source: Leading Exporters in World Merchandise Trade, 2004, World Trade Organisation website
*Values are in US $ bn
Growth of World Economy since 1980
Year Gross World Product (GWP)
(Trillion US $)
Per capita GWP (US
$)
Annual % Growth in GWP
Annual % Growth in Per capita
1980
26.8 6,042 -- --
1985
30.7 6,345 2.75 0.98
1990
36.3 6,867 3.4 1.59
1995
40.8 7,168 2.36 0.86
2000
48.6 7,985 3.66 2.18
2004
55.9 8,753 3.56 2.32
Source: World Watch Institute 2002 & World Economic Outlook Database, 2005, IMF
Comparison of Indian & Chinese Economy with the
World, 2003
World India China
GDP (bn $) 34,577 570.8 1417
Per capita GDP ($)
5510 540 1100
Source: World Development Indicators 2005
Economic Growth of China since 1979
1979 2004
GDP ($ bn) 177 1601
Per capita ($) 183 1100*
Annual GDP Growth (%)
6.2 (1952-78)
9.3 (1979-2004)
*Pertains to 2003
Source: China Economic Conditions, CRS Issue brief for Congress, 2005 & Outlook on the
Chinese Economy, Lawrence J. Lau, Stanford Univ. , USA
Economic Growth of India since 1960
1960-80 1880-91 1992-2002
GDP Growth (%) 3.3 5.6 6.1
GDP Per capita Growth (%)
1.0 3.3 4.1
Source: Economic Survey 2004-05 & 10th Five Year Plan Documents
Economic Growth of India since 1980
1980-81 1985-86 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01
2003-04
GDP (Rs. bn.)
4011 5140 6929 8996 11986 13183
Avg. Annual Growth (%)
-- 5.08 6.15 5.36 5.9 3.22
Per capita (Rs.)
5352 6082 7321 8489 10313 11672
Avg. Annual Growth (%)
-- 2.59 3.77 3.04 3.96 3.14
*Data pertains to 1993-94 Constant Prices
Source: National Account Statistics 1950-51 to 1992-93 & 2004 & Economic Survey 2002-03
Growth of Manufacturing in China
Industrial Growth %Industrial Ownership Trends
(%)
1952-79 1979-2000 1979 2000 2000
Light Industry
7.83 11.23 22 (collectiv
e)
14 (collectiv
e)
56 (other types)
Heavy Industry
11.37 11.1 78 (state owned)
24 (state owned)
6 (individua
l)
Source: Outlook on Chinese Economy,2002, Dept. of Economics, Stanford University, USA
Growth of Manufacturing in India
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003
Manufacturing(Rs. bn)
639 897 1342 1847 2341 2581
% of GDP 15.93 17.44 19.36 20.53 19.53 19.57
% Growth -- 7 8.39 6.59 4.85 3.3
*Figures are at 1993-94 constant prices
Source: National Account Statistics, Series 1950-51, 1992-93 & 2004
China & India’s Manufacturing vis-à-vis World
1990 (billion $)
2003 (billion $)
Growth of Manu. Sector
(%)
as % of World Manu.
in 1990
as % of World Manu.
in 2003
World 4,772 6,563 2.48 -- --
China 117 553 12.68 2.45 8.42
India 54 96 4.55 1.12 1.46
Source: Data calculated from World Development Indicators 2005
US Trade Deficit TrendsYear Export Import Trade Deficit
1980 272 291 -19
1985 290 411 -121
1990 535 617 -81
1995 794 891 -96
2000 1071 1450 -378
2001 1007 1370 363
2002 977 1398 -421
2003 1023 1517 -495
2004 1151 1769 -618
* Value in Billion US $Source: Foreign Trade Division, US Census Bureau
External Sector of India, China & ASEAN Countries
Country Exports Imports Current Account Balance
Foreign reserves
ASEAN 466 383 57.2* 236
China 438 413 68.7 711
India 55 70 -6.4 127
Source: ASEAN Finance & Macroeconomic surveillance Unit, Statistical Outline of India 2004 -05 & The Economist
August 27, 2005
*Data of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand & Philippines
China’s International Trade since 1980
Year Export Value (US $ bn)
Import Value (US $ bn)
Trade as % of GDP
1980 18.1 10.9 6
1985 27.3 42.2 9
1990 62.1 53.3 16.1
1995 71.9 63.7 17.7
2000 249.2 225.1 23.1
2002 325.6 295.1 26.1
2003 440.0 412.0 31.5
2004 438.0 413.0 --
Source: China Foreign Economic and Trade Statistics Year book, various issues
China’s Trade Statistics, 2003 (US$ bn)
Country Export Import Total Trade
% of Total Trade
Japan 60 74 134 15.7
USA 93 34 127 14.9
EU 15 Countries
72 53 125 14.7
S. Korea 21 43 64 7.4
ASEAN 31 47 78 9.2
Others 163 161 324 38.1
Source: Direction of Trade Statistics, 2004, IMF
India’s International Trade since 1981
Year Export Import Export % of GDP
Import % of GDP(Rs. bn) (Rs. bn)
1981 78 136 1.83 3.2
1985 118 197 2.28 3.82
1990 326 432 4.69 6.23
1995 1064 1227 10.03 11.57
2000 1596 2155 8.46 11.43
2002-03 2551 2972 11.37 13.25
2003-04 2916 3540 11.63 14.12
Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Govt. of India
India’s Trade Statistics (Rs. bn)
Country 2004-05 2005-06 Share Growth (%)
USA 239 262 16.46 9.68
EU 292 356 22.42 22
SAARC 72.5 81.7 5.14 12.72
ASEAN 179 231 14.55 29.37
AFRICA 76.5 112 7.07 46.96
CHINA 57.4 88 5.53 53.17
Total 916.4 1130.7 -- 23.38
Source: Economic Division, Dept. of Commerce, Ministry of Commerce, Govt. of India
India’s External Financial Position (bn US $)
Exports 55
Imports 70
Trade Balance -15
Workers Remittances
21.7
Current Account Balance
-6.4
Source: ASEAN Finance & Macroeconomic surveillance Unit,
Statistical Outline of India 2004 -05 & The Economist August 27, 2005 &
www.apcprocess.net
Source Regions of Workers’ Remittances to India
Year Africa
America Asia Europe Int. Insti.
Total
(US $ bn)
1997-98
2.3 37.1 31.3 26 3.3 11.88
1998-99
1.7 36.7 37.1 23.6 0.9 10.34
1999-2000
1 45.5 31.9 20.6 1 12.29
2000-01
1.3 44.9 34.3 19 0.5 12.87
2001-02
4.5 48.2 23 23.2 1.1 12.19
2002-03
0.6 51.1 22 25.8 0.5 15.17Source: Report on Currency & Finance 2002-03, RBI
Petroleum Consumption in India & China since 1980
(mn barrels per day)
Year India China World
1980 0.64 1.77 63.11
1985 0.89 1.89 60.9
1990 1.17 2.3 66.58
1995 1.57 3.36 70.02
2000 2.13 4.8 76.95
2003 2.32 5.55 80.1
Source: Annual Energy Review, 2004, Energy Information Administration, USA
Price Trends of World Crude Oil since 1983
Year Price (US $ per barrel)
Percent decrease/
increase
1983 31.35 --
1987 20.48 -34.76
1991 20.76 1.36
1995 17.18 -17.2
1999 19.39 12.86
2003 30.4 56.78
2005 58.75 93.25
Source: Energy Information Administration, US Dept. of Energy
*Prices of the above are of July 1st of each year
China’s Oil Dependence 2004-05 (Million Metric Tonnes)
Domestic Production
180
Import 145
Total Consumption
325
Import Value (US $ bn)
62.78
Source: Energy Intelligence Agency, Govt. of USA
India’s Oil Dependence (in million metric tonnes)
1999-2000 2001-02 2004-05
Production 31.9 32 34.0*
Import 57.8 78.7 98.9**
Total Consumption
89.7 110.7 132.9
Import Value in US$***
$ 10.4 bn $ 13.4 bn $ 36.3 bn
*Extrapolated from data of April 2004 to August 2004 **Provisional Figures, ***Import Value calculated on the basis of prevailing World Crude Prices as on the financial year mid-point, Oct 1st.
Source: Basic Statistics on Indian Petroleum & Natural Gas, 2003-04, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas, Press Information Bureau, Ministry of Statistics & Programme
Implementation, Govt. of India & US Dept. of Energy
FDI Flow into China since 1979
Year FDI Flow (US $ bn)
Annual Avg. Receipt
Annual Avg. Increase (%)
(US $ bn)
1979-83 1.8 0.36 55.4
1984-91 21.5 2.7 27.2
1992-99 282.6 35.3 32.1
1999-2003 191.5 47.9 78.91
Source: OECD, 2000 & World Investment Report 2004, UNCTAD
FDI inflow into India since 1990
Year FDI Flow (US $ bn)
Annual Avg. Receipt
Annual Avg. Increase (%)
(US $ bn)
1990-95 4.3 0.86 --
1995-2000 13.1 2.6 24.95
2000-03 11.1 3.7 12.19
Source: World Investment Report 2004, UNCTAD, World Bank 2002 & Statistical Outline of India 2004-05, TATA
Economic Services