Maintaining outperformance in P&C - Swiss ReInvestors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C |...

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Maintaining outperformance in P&C Matthias Weber, Group Chief Underwriting Officer Agostino Galvagni, CEO Corporate Solutions Christian Mumenthaler, CEO Reinsurance Investors' Day, London, 3 July 2014

Transcript of Maintaining outperformance in P&C - Swiss ReInvestors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C |...

Page 1: Maintaining outperformance in P&C - Swiss ReInvestors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C | London, 3 July 2014 . P&C underwriting . Successful in both Reinsurance and Corporate

Maintaining outperformance in P&C Matthias Weber, Group Chief Underwriting Officer Agostino Galvagni, CEO Corporate Solutions Christian Mumenthaler, CEO Reinsurance Investors' Day, London, 3 July 2014

Page 2: Maintaining outperformance in P&C - Swiss ReInvestors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C | London, 3 July 2014 . P&C underwriting . Successful in both Reinsurance and Corporate

Investors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C | London, 3 July 2014 2

Swiss Re's P&C business

Corporate Solutions

Summary and Q&A

Reinsurance

Maintaining outperformance in P&C Agenda

Matthias Weber Group Chief Underwriting Officer

Agostino Galvagni CEO Corporate Solutions

Christian Mumenthaler CEO Reinsurance

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Investors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C | London, 3 July 2014

Swiss Re has been successful in P&C

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104.0 98.4 98.4

114.1

90.4 90.2

97.9 93.7 97.4

104.7

83.1 85.3

95.0

101.1 98.3 98.2 97.3

93.9

96.8 95.4

92.8

93.1

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5-year US Treasury risk-free rates (RHS) Group combined ratio (LHS) Group combined ratio, 5y moving avg (LHS)2

1 Assuming an average large loss burden and no material impact from prior year development 2 Historical combined ratios as published; 2009 and later based on new org. structure and calculation method, as initially disclosed at Investors' Day 2012

P&C underwriting Strong and stable track record

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• Past results demonstrate Swiss Re's commitment to disciplined underwriting

• 2014 combined ratio is estimated1 at 95% for Swiss Re Group, P&C Reinsurance and Corporate Solutions

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Investors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C | London, 3 July 2014

P&C underwriting Successful in both Reinsurance and Corporate Solutions

• Both Corporate Solutions and Reinsurance have contributed to this good result

• Average loss ratio since 2002 has been 57% for Corporate Solutions and 60% for P&C Re

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Reinsurance Corporate Solutions

Loss ratios by underwriting year1

1 Historical split pre-dates legal entity structure and allocation between P&C Re and Corporate Solutions is based on certain assumptions

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Investors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C | London, 3 July 2014

Flashpöhler survey Swiss Re is viewed best overall reinsurer in most regions

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Best overall (North America): 1st

Willingness to recommend (North America): 2nd

Corporate Solutions

Source: Industry Flashpöhler survey 2012/2013

Best overall (EMEA): 1st

Best overall (Asia): 1st

Best overall (Latin America): 2nd

Reinsurance

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Investors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C | London, 3 July 2014

The current market environment

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Investors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C | London, 3 July 2014

Low interest rates Reserve releases

High industry capitalisation

Factors leading to lower prices1

Factors leading to higher prices1

Low inflation

Tighter regulation

?

Pricing outlook in P&C industry

Drivers of re-/ insurance prices

Nat Cats

Low

Prices

1 Nominal pricing

8

High

Page 9: Maintaining outperformance in P&C - Swiss ReInvestors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C | London, 3 July 2014 . P&C underwriting . Successful in both Reinsurance and Corporate

Investors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C | London, 3 July 2014

• Strong US focus; approximately 23% market share of the US catastrophe market

• Increased competition has lowered cat bond spreads in the last 18 months by more than 40%, however prices have stabilised over the last few weeks

• Some of this AC is here to stay, but is unlikely to replace the traditional nat cat reinsurance market

Alternative capital focusing on Nat Cat is unlikely to replace the traditional reinsurance market

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Estimated size of global AC market that is focusing on Nat Cat vs cat bond spread

• Clients rely on traditional reinsurers for long-term support and services

• AC has not been tested by rising credit spreads or large losses

200

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600

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1000

1200

1400

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10

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bps USD bn

Collateralised RI, sidecar, ILWILSBB primary issuance spread (cat bond)

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• Target long-tail, low-volatility business

• Leverage investment return by investing the reinsurance "float"

• Accept business at higher combined ratios than traditional reinsurance

• Weaker underwriting performance is compensated by a riskier investment strategy

Alternative capital focusing on long-tail lines carries substantial risks for clients

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Some reinsurers launched by hedge funds… … carry substantial risks for clients:

• Liabilities are not fully collateralised

despite high-risk investment strategy

• The attrition rate of hedge funds is much higher than for highly rated reinsurers

0%

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20%

30%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Hedge fund attrition rate1

1 Source: Xu et al (JAI 2011) "An Examination of Hedge Fund Survivorship Bias and Attrition Before and During the Global Financial Crisis"

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•Rates are trending down across some lines and geographies; however these rate decreases are of a temporary nature

•Opportunities for large transactions and tailor-made deals continue to exist

Critical importance of underwriting outperformance in current environment

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• In a softening market environment, underwriting outperformance is critical

•We have outperformed in the past, and will continue to so do

– If prices continue to fall we will protect the value of our portfolio

– We will maintain our firm stance on terms and conditions

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Swiss Re's competitive advantage in underwriting

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Swiss Re's underwriting outperformance

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Underwriting profit = GAAP premiums earned - claims and claims adjustment expenses - acquisition costs - other expenses. Top 8 reinsurers include: Swiss Re, Munich Re, Hannover Re, PartnerRe, SCOR, General Re, Everest Re, Transatlantic Re/Alleghany Source: Swiss Re Economic Research and Consulting

• Average premium share of 23%

• Average profit share of 41%

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q14

Premiums U/W profit (green = loss)

Swiss Re’s P&C premium and underwriting profit share vs top reinsurers

In 2011 the industry underwriting result was negative due to extraordinary nat cat losses the low share of underwriting loss is therefore positive for Swiss Re

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Competitive advantage in underwriting A key strength of Swiss Re

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Portfolio steering

Hedging R&D Innovation, large and structured transactions

151 Years Capital strength

In an inefficient market, skilled portfolio steering

Our retro and hedging team

Re/insurance is a knowledge business

Focus on tailored and large lines

Superior balance sheets and 151 years of history

creates extra economic value

exploits price differences between re/insurance and capital markets

markets are intransparent

R&D provides competitive advantage in risk selection

requires economies of scale

with better economics than open market placements requires highly developed structuring and UW expertise

are valued by clients give preferential access to long tail business

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'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Market premium (net) Market losses Swiss Re market share

Portfolio steering Applying cycle management

•Key success factors:

– Consistent economic framework (EVM)

– Clarity of overarching objectives (economic profit maximisation)

– Centrally steered portfolio optimisation approach

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Underwriting year

USD m

Airlines insurance

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Portfolio steering Vast majority of portfolios have added to economic profit

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• Steering is based on portfolios that are key to overall performance in terms of volume and risk

• Over the last 5 years, vast majority of portfolios have provided positive profit margins, in most cases significantly above our return targets

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EVM profit margin (before fixed cost) 2009 to 2013 average by portfolio

Above 80%

Pro

pert

y A

sia

trea

ty (

due

to n

at c

at e

vent

s)

Each represents a specific P&C underwriting portfolio

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Example: Swiss Re is developing and implementing a proprietary, forward-looking, exposure based model for Liability risks, similar to the one already in use for Nat Cat

Better risk selection through R&D

Full version

Simplified version

Implementation ongoing

Current implementation status for single risk

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Large and structured transactions Significant economic profit

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• Customised solutions including quota shares, non-proportional deals, longevity, external run-off and ILS

• Our ability to write large lines allows us to drive terms and write private transactions, often with better economics than open market placements

• During 2013, 32 large transactions produced an EVM economic profit of USD 354m

Number of large transactions

15

12

5

P&C L&H ILS

Type of transaction

Swiss Re large transactions, 2013

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Swiss Re's P&C business

Corporate Solutions

Summary and Q&A

Reinsurance

Agostino Galvagni CEO Corporate Solutions

Christian Mumenthaler CEO Reinsurance

Matthias Weber Group Chief Underwriting Officer

Maintaining outperformance in P&C Agenda

Page 20: Maintaining outperformance in P&C - Swiss ReInvestors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C | London, 3 July 2014 . P&C underwriting . Successful in both Reinsurance and Corporate

Corporate Solutions

Agostino Galvagni, CEO Corporate Solutions

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Large Corporates

• Value proposition best fits the needs of large corporate clients (i.e., revenues > USD 750m)

• Neither focused on small corporates nor active in Global Master Policies area, resulting in limited administrative requirements

• Access to risks not placed in wholesale centres

• Lower commissions • Leveraging Swiss Re Group office

network

• Leading brand • Financial strength • “We are here to stay” • Large net capacity • Innovation • Supported by

– superior u/w knowledge

– disciplined cycle management

Lean

Global

Value proposition

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Target by 2015 GPW1 USD 4-5bn ROE 10-15% 1 Gross premium written net of internal fronting for the Reinsurance Business Unit

Strategy: Lean global player focusing on large corporates

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• On track to deliver against 2015 targets

• Focusing on current strategy execution

– Progress on investment for growth

– Sales focused on large clients and brokers

– Differentiated underwriting approach for corporates

– Pro-active portfolio steering

– Diversified portfolio composition

• Preparing for profitable growth beyond 2015

– Expand into Primary Lead

– Move more significantly into High Growth Markets

Agenda

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Note: Figures are on total financial contribution basis; 2013 is projection at 30.09. (P9); planned October 2010 adjusted for subsequent portfolio shifts

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On track to deliver against 2015 targets

2.5

3.8

4.0 – 5.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

Baseline2010

Achieved2013

Target2015

7.4%

9.6%

10% - 15%

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5

10

15

Achieved2012

Achieved2013

Target2015

GPW1 USD 4-5bn ROE 10-15%

in USD bn in %

On track to deliver USD 4-5bn of premiums by 2015, this will almost double the book, profitably, over 5 years

1 Gross premium written net of internal fronting for the Reinsurance Business Unit

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• On track to deliver against 2015 targets

• Focusing on current strategy execution

– Progress on investment for growth

– Sales focused on large clients and brokers

– Differentiated underwriting approach for corporates

– Pro-active portfolio steering

– Diversified portfolio composition

• Preparing for profitable growth beyond 2015

– Expand into Primary Lead

– Move more significantly into High Growth Markets

Agenda

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Page 25: Maintaining outperformance in P&C - Swiss ReInvestors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C | London, 3 July 2014 . P&C underwriting . Successful in both Reinsurance and Corporate

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Organic growth 9

Inorganic growth 5

2010 Baseline year

2014

Achieved

Employees ~1 000 ~2 200

Offices 32 46

Operating platform

Operational sustainability

Sales

Underwriting

5

Harmonize and upgrade

Improve and maintain

Progress on investment for growth

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Note: Number of employees and offices includes 51% acquisition of Seguros Confianza announced in February 2014, pending regulatory approval. The company has 3 main offices and 14 branches, the latter not included above

Maintain

Segment and upgrade

Organic growth ~550

Inorganic growth ~450

Intra Group shifts ~200

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Investors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C | London, 3 July 2014

Sales focused on large clients and brokers

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• Delivering a holistic value proposition to large clients based upon an in-depth understanding of their needs

• 6% share of wallet1 in 2013 for 125 key accounts

• Strategic agreements with global brokers

• Gradually expand with regional brokers

Become a top-5 insurance partner for half of the Fortune 500 companies

Become a top-10 partner for the key global brokers

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1 Without workers' compensation, commercial auto and employees benefits, where Corporate Solutions is not active

Ambition

Ambition

Each phase monitored by specific KPIs

Sales Process

• Target

• Prospect

• Opportunity

• Submission

• Quote

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Underwriting approach

Differentiated underwriting approach for corporates

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Prudent risk selection in a portfolio context

Paying attention to wordings and clauses

Incorporating actuarial and

R&D intelligence

into risk assessment

tools

Identifying industry

specific risk factors

Including Risk Engineering into the underwriting process

• Disciplined cycle management is important but not sufficient to outperform the market

Highlights

• As a consequence, underwriting must be driven by various activities

1

2

3

4

5

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Pro-active portfolio steering

Action: Market share reduced from 14% to 4% in 2014 for the steering unit

• Segmentation of the portfolio into homogenous steering units (i.e., a combination of line of business, region and industry)

Highlights

0

1

2

3

4

5

UnderlyingDemand of

Product/Service

Market Growthand Potential

Market PriceLevel

(Historic)Market

Profitability

AvailableCapacity

Terms andConditions

Swiss RePositioning

Legal andregulatory

Environment

201320142015

• Regular quantitative and qualitative assessments of each steering unit

• Steering actions

0 1 2 3 4 5

2013 2014 2015

1 = Poor 2 = Fair 3 = Good 4 = Very Good 5 = Excellent

Overall Rating

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41%

28%

19%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Property Casualty SpecialLines

Credit &Surety

58%

24%

10% 8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

NorthAmerica

EMEA LatinAmerica

Asia

Diversified portfolio composition

1 Special Lines includes Aviation & Space, Engineering, Marine and Energy Offshore Note: Portfolio composition relates to 2013

by line of business

by geography

10%

9%

9%

8%

7% 5% 5% 5%

4%

38%

Construction/EngineeringAviation/Space/Ship BuildersAgriculture/ForestryProfessional ServicesEnergy OnshoreMarineMiningHealth Care/Pharmaceuticals/ChemicalsUtilitiesVarious ~ 10 other industry segments

by industry

1

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• On track to deliver against 2015 targets

• Focusing on current strategy execution

– Progress on investment for growth

– Sales focused on large clients and brokers

– Differentiated underwriting approach for corporates

– Pro-active portfolio steering

– Diversified portfolio composition

• Preparing for profitable growth beyond 2015

– Expand into Primary Lead

– Move more significantly into High Growth Markets

Agenda

30

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Growth beyond 2015

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• Expand into Primary Lead • Move more significantly into

High Growth Markets

Corporate Solutions on track to reach a ~4% share in the excess layer market (focus of current portfolio)

At current profitability further growth in the excess layer market will be difficult

Two complementary initiatives for growth beyond 2015

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Expand into Primary Lead

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Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting

125 70

195

60

230

Future focus/Primary Lead

Rest of the market

Additional benefits Expand the target market

2013 commercial insurance market premium: USD 680bn

Capabilities which need to be further developed

• Products: Ability to price primary products, notably costing benchmarks for ground-up losses

• Services: Establish local services (claims managers, field engineers) to handle high claims frequency business

• Systems: Integrate management of co-insurance panels into current platform

• Client stickiness is enhanced

• Creates higher priority with brokers

• Opens new cross-selling opportunities

Global Master Policies

Current focus/excess layer market

in USD bn

Small and medium size corporates

Workers' compensation

and commercial auto

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10%

Enter or strengthen presence in 8 High Growth Markets

Focus on selected 13 High Growth Markets

Chile

Brazil

South Africa

Indonesia

China

Hong Kong

Mexico

Singapore • Insurance licence

obtained in 2013

UAE • Dubai office opened in

2012

India

Turkey

South Korea

Already well covered

Local presence to be strengthened No local presence

Colombia • Agreed to acquire

51% stake in Seguros Confianza in Q1 2014 (closing targeted for H2 2014)

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• On track to deliver against 2015 targets

• Focusing on current strategy execution

• Preparing for profitable growth beyond 2015

– Expand into Primary Lead

– Move more significantly into High Growth Markets

Key messages

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Swiss Re's P&C business

Corporate Solutions

Summary and Q&A

Reinsurance

Agostino Galvagni CEO Corporate Solutions

Christian Mumenthaler CEO Reinsurance

Matthias Weber Group Chief Underwriting Officer

Maintaining outperformance in P&C Agenda

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P&C Reinsurance

Christian Mumenthaler, CEO Reinsurance

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Our strategy is to create value through differentiation and targeted growth

Global Presence

Brand

Diversification

Financial Strength

Data

R & D

Structuring & UW

Client Relationships

DIFFERENTIATE

Regionals & Nationals

Casualty

Health

L&H Protection Partners

High Growth Markets

GROW

Policyholders/ Society

DEVELOP

People, Culture & Operational

Excellence

DELIVER

GAAP & EVM profit

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We have a "high touch" interaction model

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• …we have documented 1 986 meetings and 1 060 phone calls between Swiss Re employees (87 ) and those of a Global Client (99 )

• …we have documented more than 90 000 meetings and 45 000 phone calls with our clients in total. Altogether, 4 500 Swiss Re employees were in contact with more than 55 000 client employees

Swiss Re

Global client

Visualisation of a client relationship with a large Global client

Individuals

8+ interactions over last 4 years

Over the last four years…

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We deliver much more than just reinsurance to our clients

Type of service

Assumed benefit

~ 80+ reinsurance treaties, ~400+ facultative certificates

are driving our partnership

Emerging Risks Workshops

Joint product development

(LatAm)

Casualty workshops

Support SME business

strategy

Property strategy initiatives

P&C workshops

(Asia)

Engineering workshop

Interactive seminars

UW claims exchange

A&H workshop

(Asia)

Non- customised

WBCs

Cat Model comparison

SR Cat data (GeoPortal,

CatNet)

Reinsurance solutions

Knowledge exchange

Support strategy

Med

ium

H

igh

Low

A&H prod development

workshop

Full spectrum of traditional and innovative reinsurance solutions.

Knowledge exchanges, on-site and virtual workshops, trainings, etc.

Directly supporting client's strategy with joint product development, strategy support, capital management etc.

Exam

ple

of a

Glo

bal P

&C

Clie

nt

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14%

26%

19%

41%

Renewed dealsNew dealsStructured solutions

As a result, we also get differentiated economics

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• This model has developed over the last 5-10 years and is most advanced with the largest global clients

• Remuneration for the differentiated services comes mostly through the access to unique (private) transactions

• Unique transactions produce higher margins for Swiss Re

Expected economic profit by source

Globals Division, January 2014 renewals

Model maturity and mechanism

Flow business Large & customised deals

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We focus on High Growth Markets that offer growth now and in the long term

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HGM focus countries Long-term focus Other HGM

Vietnam Outperforming long-term market growth by delivering broad range of covers

Sub-Saharan Africa Nurturing primary market growth and establishing ourselves as a leader

Brazil Accelerating growth through local carrier

Mexico Building on an existing successful franchise Indonesia

Developing capabilities to meet emerging local market needs

India Focus only on few selected segments

We generate almost 20% (>USD 5bn US GAAP) of our reinsurance premiums in HGM

China Expanding our offering despite increasing competition

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• We are growing both top and bottom line in HGM P&C Reinsurance

• China dominates top line due to large motor quota shares, but we are also growing strongly in other HGM

• The growth in FTEs demonstrates our commitment to HGM

• We have a strong track record of deals and innovative collaboration in HGMs, e.g.:

– India: Strategic partnership with AICI (Agriculture Insurance Company of India)

– Brazil: Sustainable flood risk coverage with Allianz

We are successfully growing in High Growth Markets

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50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2

1

EVM profit (USD m)

4

3

US

GA

AP

Gro

ss E

arne

d P

rem

ium

s (U

SD

bn)

6

5

2009

2009

HGM P&C Re ex China

HGM P&C Re total

Bubble size represents headcount (incl L&H Re)

2013

2013

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Investors' Day | Maintaining outperformance in P&C | London, 3 July 2014

Our Regionals & Nationals segment is attractive

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• Our Regionals & Nationals (R&N) segment comprises more than 1 300 P&C clients that focus on a specific geography or niche

• These clients tend to be smaller, need more reinsurance (typical cession rate of 25%), have a C-suite involved in reinsurance, value continuity and relationships and are very loyal

• The diversity of the R&N client segment provides a buffer against volatility inherent to the industry

Regionals & Nationals segment R&N segment displays lower volatility

1,5

1,0

0,5

0,0

2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002

2,0

3,0

2,5

(USD bn)

3,5

Large & Global Clients

R&N

Economic Gross Margin1

1 Economic Gross Margin = NPV Premiums – Claims – Commissions

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In other areas we are further developing some capabilities and tailoring our approach to the specific needs:

• Streamlined processes

• Cost-efficient approach

Traditional strengths and a tailored approach enable us to exploit the potential of the R&N market

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Tailored R&N approach

Some of our key strengths directly meet R&N clients' needs and preferences:

• Reliable long term orientation

• Personal relationships

• Knowledge and expertise

Swiss Re's traditional strengths

• Significant opportunity in all geographies, with the US standing out as the largest R&N market

• Swiss Re's estimated P&C global market share is only 6% in R&N, compared to 16% in other segments

Growth in the R&N market + =

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We will broaden our Casualty portfolio and continue to build our future

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Casualty strategy

Broaden our portfolio through increased share of wallet and new clients

Continue to execute large transactions

Build our future

Accumulation

Forward-looking modelling

Key themes (2 examples)

Developing new ways to systematically and transparently assess liability risk

Increasing our capability for managing casualty risk accumulations

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• We manage the business according to the pricing cycle

• We will continue to pursue a profitability-focused expansion, taking account of relevant factors, e.g.

– rate development

– macro economics

– social, regulatory and legal developments

– cession rates

We are growing our casualty portfolio again

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Portfolio development and rates Steering and growth approach

US

GA

AP

Gro

ss E

arne

d P

rem

ium

(US

D b

n)

CIA

B1 R

ate

Inde

x

1 CIAB: The Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

'01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13

SR global casualty portfolio (ex motor)

CIAB market index: US general liability rates1

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Collateralised reinsurers

Hedge fund reinsurers

Swiss Re

1. Main income driver Underwriting Investing Underwriting

2. Risk pool

US Nat Cat concentrated Low severity only Diversified

3. Service level & client relationships

4. Underwriting expertise

5. Creditworthiness

6. Admin expenses

7. Long-term reliability

Swiss Re has a different business model from alternative capital providers

Strong Weak

Our competitive position remains strong

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• We have entered a softening phase of the reinsurance market

• We expect to continue our outperformance in the reinsurance market through:

– further developing our differentiated service model

– executing our P&C strategic initiatives

• Our long term expected ROE for P&C Re remains 10-15%

Key messages

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We are focused on achieving our financial goals in a more challenging environment

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Swiss Re's P&C business

Corporate Solutions

Summary and Q&A

Reinsurance

Agostino Galvagni CEO Corporate Solutions

Christian Mumenthaler CEO Reinsurance

Matthias Weber Group Chief Underwriting Officer

Maintaining outperformance in P&C Agenda

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• We have had a good track record in P&C

• In the current environment underwriting outperformance is critical; we will continue to outperform by focusing on our areas of strength and will add value through differentiation and targeted growth

• We will continue to identify and take advantage of opportunities to deploy excess capital profitably, both in Reinsurance and Corporate Solutions

– If P&C lacks such opportunities, we will either deploy capital elsewhere in the Group or return it to shareholders

Conclusion

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Investor Relations contacts Hotline E-mail +41 43 285 4444 [email protected] Eric Schuh Ross Walker Chris Menth +41 43 285 4708 +41 43 285 2243 +41 43 285 3878

Simone Lieberherr Simone Fessler +41 43 285 4190 +41 43 285 7299

Corporate calendar & contacts

Corporate calendar 2014 6 August Second Quarter 2014 results Conference call 7 November Third Quarter 2014 results Conference call 2015 19 February Annual Results 2014 Conference call 18 March Publication of Annual Report 2014 and EVM 2014 21 April 151st Annual General Meeting Zurich

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Cautionary note on forward-looking statements

Certain statements and illustrations contained herein are forward-looking. These statements (including as to plans objectives, targets and trends) and illustrations provide current expectations of future events based on certain assumptions and include any statement that does not directly relate to a historical fact or current fact. Forward-looking statements typically are identified by words or phrases such as “anticipate“, “assume“, “believe“, “continue“, “estimate“, “expect“, “foresee“, “intend“, “may increase“ and “may fluctuate“ and similar expressions or by future or conditional verbs such as “will“, “should“, “would“ and “could“. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, which may cause Swiss Re’s actual results of operations, financial condition, solvency ratios, liquidity position or prospects to be materially different from any future results of operations, financial condition, solvency ratios, liquidity position or prospects expressed or implied by such statements or cause Swiss Re to not achieve its published targets. Such factors include, among others:

• further instability affecting the global financial system and developments related thereto;

• deterioration in global economic conditions; • Swiss Re’s ability to maintain sufficient liquidity and access to capital markets,

including sufficient liquidity to cover potential recapture of reinsurance agreements, early calls of debt or debt-like arrangements and collateral calls due to actual or perceived deterioration of Swiss Re’s financial strength or otherwise;

• the effect of market conditions, including the global equity and credit markets, and the level and volatility of equity prices, interest rates, credit spreads, currency values and other market indices, on Swiss Re’s investment assets;

• changes in Swiss Re’s investment result as a result of changes in its investment policy or the changed composition of its investment assets, and the impact of the timing of any such changes relative to changes in market conditions;

• uncertainties in valuing credit default swaps and other credit-related instruments; • possible inability to realise amounts on sales of securities on Swiss Re’s balance

sheet equivalent to their mark-to-market values recorded for accounting purposes; • the outcome of tax audits, the ability to realise tax loss carryforwards and the

ability to realise deferred tax assets (including by reason of the mix of earnings in a jurisdiction or deemed change of control), which could negatively impact future earnings;

• the possibility that Swiss Re’s hedging arrangements may not be effective; • the lowering or loss of one of the financial strength or other ratings of one or more

Swiss Re companies, and developments adversely affecting Swiss Re’s ability to achieve improved ratings;

• the cyclicality of the reinsurance industry; • uncertainties in estimating reserves; • uncertainties in estimating future claims for purposes of financial reporting,

particularly with respect to large natural catastrophes, as significant uncertainties may be involved in estimating losses from such events and preliminary estimates may be subject to change as new information becomes available;

• the frequency, severity and development of insured claim events; • acts of terrorism and acts of war; • mortality, morbidity and longevity experience; • policy renewal and lapse rates; • extraordinary events affecting Swiss Re’s clients and other counterparties,

such as bankruptcies, liquidations and other credit-related events; • current, pending and future legislation and regulation affecting Swiss Re or its

ceding companies, and the interpretation of legislation or regulations by regulators;

• legal actions or regulatory investigations or actions, including those in respect of industry requirements or business conduct rules of general applicability;

• changes in accounting standards; • significant investments, acquisitions or dispositions, and any delays,

unexpected costs or other issues experienced in connection with any such transactions;

• changing levels of competition; and • operational factors, including the efficacy of risk management and other

internal procedures in managing the foregoing risks.

These factors are not exhaustive. Swiss Re operates in a continually changing environment and new risks emerge continually. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Swiss Re undertakes no obligation to publicly revise or update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. This communication is not intended to be a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities and does not constitute an offer for the sale of, or the solicitation of an offer to buy, securities in any jurisdiction, including the United States. Any such offer will only be made by means of a prospectus or offering memorandum, and in compliance with applicable securities laws.

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