Mainstreet - SK June 2016
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Transcript of Mainstreet - SK June 2016
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,567 Saskatchewan residents by Smart IVR™ on June 13, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.48%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.
EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM CST - JUNE 21, 2016PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETOWRK
SK BUDGET
WALL APPROVAL , SK PARTY SUPPORT HOLD STEADY POST-BUDGET
June 21, (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds support for the SK Party flat post-budget with Brad Wall’s approval rating a solid 65%. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.48%, 19 times out of 20.
“Despite some negative news in the budget there doesn’t appear to be much of an effect on the Sask Party,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “Brad Wall has spent most of his time talking about the proposed energy east pipeline lately - not the budget. It’s a clever strategy that has kept the focus on Brad Wall as a statesman.”
“Overall, Saskatchewan residents are optimistic about their own personal finances (51%) but pessimistic about the province’s economic outlook (50%). Nevertheless, 54% say the province is moving in the right direction. 51% say they believe the provincial government will be able to keep its promise to balance the books.”
“When it comes to potential savings, a cut to government and MLA salaries is the most popular idea, 63% say it should be considered though not surprisingly only 32% approve of the idea in Regina where a majority (54%) don’t believe salary cuts should be on the table.”
“What ‘transformative government’ means for the province has yet to be spelled out, but there are clearly some ideas that could prove to be confrontational, particularly with the Sask Party’s base outside of Regina and Saskatoon. For example, while majorities in Saskatoon and Regina support fewer rural municipalities there is no similar appetite in the Rest of Saskatchewan (RoS). Getting the budget back to balance will be a challenge and it may not be possible without tax increases Saskatchewan residents are adamant they are against. 71% say the government should not consider raising taxes, while 54 are opposed to a PST increase even if it meant no significant service cuts,” finished Maggi.
About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30-
Available for Interview from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.
A2
If the provincial election were held today which party would you support?[DECIDED AND LEANING]
A11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Oct 6 Jan 4 Feb 11 Feb 23 Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 16 Mar 31 June 13
NDPSK Party Liberal Green
DECIDED AND LEANING
A8
Oct 6
Jan 4
Feb 11
Feb 23
Mar 1
Mar 8
Mar 16
Mar 31
June 13
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
57% 32% 7%
59% 28% 7%
56% 32% 8%
52% 34% 10%
55% 33% 9%
51% 37% 8%
53% 35% 8%
60% 31% 5%
59% 32% 5%
DECIDED AND LEANING
A8
PC
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female
46%
39%
7%
8%
225
47%
45%
3%
6%
291
55%
40%
2%
3%
366
51%
42%
3%
4%
511
51%
36%
8%
6%
666
46%
45%
4%
5%
727
SK Party
NDP
Liberal
Green
Sample
59%
32%
4%
5%
1,393
47%
45%
3%
5%
449
65%
26%
5%
4%
477
SK Party
NDP
Liberal
Green
Sample
Saskatchewan Regina Rest of SK
53%
37%
5%
5%
467
Saskatoon
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Oct 6 Jan 4 Feb 11 Feb 23 Mar 1 Mar 8 Mar 15 Mar 31 June 13
If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
A6
NDPSK Party Liberal Green UD
If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
A6
Oct 6
Jan 4
Feb 11
Feb 23
Mar 1
Mar 8
Mar 15
Mar 31
June 13
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
46% 26% 6% 19%
51% 24% 6% 14%
49% 28% 6% 14%
46% 30% 8% 13%
49% 28% 7% 14%
47% 33% 6% 12%
49% 31% 5% 12%
54% 28% 12%
52% 27% 14%
If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
A6
PC
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female
39%
32%
3%
6%
21%
259
41%
38%
2%
5%
14%
322
47%
33%
1%
3%
16%
405
42%
34%
3%
3%
19%
581
43%
30%
6%
4%
17%
752
40%
37%
2%
4%
18%
815
SK Party
NDP
Liberal
Green
Undecided
Sample
52%
27%
3%
3%
14%
1,567
40%
37%
2%
4%
17%
519
59%
23%
3%
3%
12%
527
SK Party
NDP
Liberal
Green
Undecided
Sample
Saskatchewan Regina Rest of SK
46%
31%
4%
4%
16%
521
Saskatoon
40%
25%
21%
7%
7%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brad Wall is handling his job as Premier?
A9
Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove
Strongly Disapprove Not Sure
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brad Wall is handling his job as Premier?
A10
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
40% 25% 21% 7% 7%
26% 31% 24% 11% 8%
41% 17% 19% 14% 10%
45% 25% 20% 6%
45% 19% 20% 8% 8%
35% 31% 22% 6% 6%
40% 30% 18% 8%
39% 25% 25% 5% 6%
40% 23% 24% 8% 6%
41% 21% 17% 13% 8%
51%
35%
14%
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about
your own family’s financial situation?
A11
Optimistic Pessimistic Not Sure
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
51% 35% 14%
43% 44% 13%
54% 26% 19%
53% 34% 13%
51% 36% 13%
51% 34% 15%
51% 35% 14%
45% 39% 16%
58% 30% 12%
49% 36% 15%
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about
your own family’s financial situation?
A12
39%
50%
11%
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the
state of SK economy?
A13
Optimistic Pessimistic Not Sure
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
39% 50% 11%
33% 56% 11%
46% 43% 11%
39% 50% 11%
38% 53% 9%
40% 47% 13%
35% 52% 12%
43% 47% 10%
37% 53% 10%
41% 46% 12%
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the
state of SK economy?
A14
54%
32%
14%
In your opinion, is SK headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
A15
Right Direction Wrong Direction Not Sure
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
54% 32% 14%
44% 38% 18%
41% 46% 14%
62% 25% 13%
57% 30% 13%
51% 34% 15%
59% 27% 14%
50% 35% 16%
49% 35% 16%
59% 32% 9%
In your opinion, is SK headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
A16
12%
8%
7%
21%
12%
8%
32%
Of the following items in the budget, which will affect your family the most?
A17
Drugs Parks Cancer Wait Credit Nothing
Not Sure
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
12% 8% 7% 21% 12% 8% 32%
15% 17% 11% 19% 9% 7% 22%
17% 12% 8% 22% 8% 5% 27%
9% 5% 22% 14% 9% 37%
10% 9% 6% 21% 9% 11% 34%
14% 7% 8% 21% 15% 5% 30%
13% 9% 12% 12% 9% 43%
10% 7% 15% 26% 10% 29%
6% 10% 9% 16% 23% 7% 30%
22% 6% 17% 25% 6% 22%
Of the following items in the budget, which will affect your family the most?
A18
8%
35%
32%
25%
We have 13 Local Health Regions, do we need more, fewer, or the same amount?
A19
More Less Not SureThe Same
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
8% 35% 32% 25%
12% 28% 31% 29%
11% 29% 33% 27%
5% 40% 32% 23%
8% 32% 36% 24%
8% 38% 28% 26%
10% 38% 26% 26%
6% 39% 29% 26%
6% 36% 34% 24%
11% 24% 41% 24%
We have 13 Local Health Regions, do we need more, fewer, or the same amount?
A20
6%
46%
31%
17%
More Less Not SureThe Same
We have 28 Local School Boards, do we need more, fewer, or the same amount?
A21
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
6% 46% 31% 17%
7% 45% 33% 15%
8% 34% 47% 11%
5% 50% 25% 20%
6% 46% 32% 16%
6% 46% 30% 18%
6% 37% 35% 21%
8% 35% 39% 18%
58% 20% 18%
6% 57% 29% 8%
We have 28 Local School Boards, do we need more, fewer, or the same amount?
A22
4%
38%
48%
10%
More Less Not SureThe Same
We have 296 rural municipalities, do we need more, fewer, or the same amount?
A23
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
38% 48% 10%
58% 28% 12%
62% 24% 11%
5% 22% 64% 9%
34% 53% 10%
5% 42% 43% 10%
40% 46% 11%
38% 51% 8%
36% 51% 9%
7% 38% 42% 12%
We have 296 rural municipalities, do we need more, fewer, or the same amount?
A24
63%
25%
12%
Should the Government consider: cutting wages for government employees and MLAs?
A25
Yes No Not Sure
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
63% 25% 12%
51% 33% 15%
32% 54% 14%
78% 12% 10%
63% 26% 11%
63% 24% 13%
75% 18% 7%
62% 27% 12%
56% 30% 15%
56% 28% 17%
Should the Government consider: cutting wages for government employees and MLAs?
A26
34%
46%
20%
Yes No Not Sure
Should the Government consider: eliminating programs?
A27
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
34% 46% 20%
29% 45% 26%
27% 51% 22%
38% 45% 17%
38% 47% 15%
30% 45% 25%
35% 51% 14%
33% 43% 23%
36% 37% 28%
30% 56% 14%
Should the Government consider: eliminating programs?
A28
21%
71%
8%
Yes No Not Sure
Should the Government consider: raising taxes?
A29
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
21% 71% 8%
29% 61% 10%
27% 65% 8%
16% 77% 7%
21% 73% 6%
21% 70% 10%
15% 78% 6%
24% 69% 8%
24% 66% 10%
22% 70% 8%
Should the Government consider: raising taxes?
A30
39%
31%
30%
Yes No Not Sure
Should the Government consider: increasing resource royalties?
A31
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
39% 31% 30%
34% 33% 33%
35% 32% 33%
42% 30% 28%
36% 32% 32%
42% 30% 28%
37% 31% 32%
41% 29% 29%
41% 30% 30%
37% 36% 28%
Should the Government consider: increasing resource royalties?
A32
33%
42%
17%
8%
Do you agree or disagree with the practice of borrowing money to pay for infrastructure
projects and create economic activity even if it means increasing the provincial debt?
A33
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
33% 42% 17% 8%
44% 24% 20% 12%
41% 26% 25% 8%
27% 54% 13% 6%
33% 43% 16% 8%
34% 40% 18% 8%
35% 44% 16% 5%
27% 42% 22% 10%
34% 40% 18% 9%
39% 41% 11% 8%
Do you agree or disagree with the practice of borrowing money to pay for infrastructure
projects and create economic activity even if it means increasing the provincial debt?
A34
39%
42%
19%
Should the provincial government consider selling off SaskTel in order to balance the budget
and pay down the provincial debt without resorting to significant cuts to services?
A35
Yes No Not Sure
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
39% 42% 19%
33% 38% 29%
37% 41% 22%
42% 44% 14%
38% 43% 19%
39% 42% 19%
41% 40% 18%
39% 41% 20%
40% 45% 15%
34% 41% 25%
Should the provincial government consider selling off SaskTel in order to balance the budget
and pay down the provincial debt without resorting to significant cuts to services?
A36
21%
54%
25%
Yes No Not Sure
Would you support an increase in the provincial sales tax in order to balance the budget and pay
down the provincial debt without resorting to significant cuts to services?
A37
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
21% 54% 25%
25% 44% 31%
29% 41% 30%
17% 62% 21%
21% 55% 24%
21% 53% 26%
14% 60% 26%
17% 58% 26%
27% 46% 26%
30% 50% 20%
Would you support an increase in the provincial sales tax in order to balance the budget and pay
down the provincial debt without resorting to significant cuts to services?
A38
51%
28%
21%
Yes No Not Sure
Do you believe the provincial government will make good on its promise to balance the books
by the next budget?
A39
SK
Saskatoon
Regina
RoS
Male
Female
18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
51% 28% 21%
53% 25% 22%
41% 40% 19%
53% 25% 21%
53% 28% 19%
49% 28% 23%
56% 26% 18%
45% 29% 26%
45% 30% 25%
60% 26% 14%
Do you believe the provincial government will make good on its promise to balance the books
by the next budget?
A40
If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad WallNDP led by Cam Broten
Liberal Party led by Darrin LamoureuxGreen Party led by Victor Lau
Undecided
And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad WallNDP led by Cam Broten
Liberal Party led by Darrin LamoureuxGreen Party led by Victor Lau
Undecided
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brad Wall is handling his job as Premier?
Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve
Somewhat DisapproveStrongly Disapprove
Not Sure
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about the state of SK economy?
Thinking about the next 12 months, would you say you feel optimistic or pessimistic about your own family’s financial situation?
OptimisticPessimisticNot Sure
In your opinion, is SK headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Right DirectionWrong Direction
Not Sure
Of the following items in the budget, which will affect your family the most?
Paying an extra $5 per prescription on the children’s and seniors drug plansCuts to urban parks
New funding for 15 cancer dugsAn extra $20 million to address surgical wait lists
Elimination of the active family tax creditWill not be affected by budget
Not Sure
SCRIPT
A41
The government has suggested amalgamating things like school boards and health regions could be on the table. When you think about the following bodies, do we need more, fewer or the same:
We have 13 Local Health Regions, do we need more, fewer, or the same amount?We have 28 Local School Boards, do we need more, fewer, or the same amount?We have 296 rural municipalities, do we need more, fewer, or the same amount?
MoreFewer
The SameNot Sure
The government is talking about “transformational change”. What should be considered?
Should the Government consider: cutting wages for government employees and MLAs?Should the Government consider: eliminating programs?
Should the Government consider: raising taxes?Should the Government consider: increasing resource royalties?
Yes, Should be ConsideredNo, Should not be Considered
Not Sure
Do you agree or disagree with the practice of borrowing money to pay for infrastructure projects and create economic activity even if it means increasing the provincial debt?
AgreeDisagree
Neither Agree nor DisagreeNot Sure
Should the provincial government consider selling off SaskTel in order to balance the budget and pay down the provincial debt without resorting to significant cuts to services?
Would you support an increase in the provincial sales tax in order to balance the budget and pay down the provincial debt without resorting to significant cuts to services?
Do you believe the provincial government will make good on its promise to balance the books by the next budget?
YesNo
Not Sure
SCRIPT
A42
WHITBY
Most Accurate Pollster of the Whitby by election.
SASKATCHEWAN
Most Active Pollster of Saskatchewan’s general election, top results within MoE.
MANITOBA
Most Active Pollster of Manitoba’s general election, top results within MoE.
CALGARY GREENWAY
Most Accurate Pollster of the Calgary Greenway by election.
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
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