Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) Issue Paper (DRAFT) Climate Change in the...
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Transcript of Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) Issue Paper (DRAFT) Climate Change in the...
Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC)
Issue Paper (DRAFT)
Climate Change in the Caribbean:Water, Agriculture, Forestry
Dr. Roger S. Pulwarty
University of Colorado and
NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Center
Boulder CO 80305
• Background
• Water Resources in the Caribbean: an overview
• Agriculture, Food Security and Forestry in the Caribbean
• Timescales of Climate Variation And Climate Change in the Caribbean
• Impacts on Water Resources
• Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security
• Approaches to Adaptation: Integrating climate and natural resources assessments under a decision-
oriented framework
Appendices
APPENDIX B. Climate and APPENDIX A: Water and Climate Dialogue Summary Statements
Food Security: Implications for Research and Policy
APPENDIX C. IWCAM Summary statements
APPENDIX D. Climate and agricultural applications in the Caribbean: A case study of climate information use in sugar production in Trinidad (summary)
Three questions under the MACC framework:
(2) Are planning strategies for water, agricultural and forest resources in the Caribbean supported by the climate record?
(3) What additional pressures will be placed on these resources as a result of projected
climatic variability and change?
(3) What practical strategies may be engaged to reduce vulnerability and enhance social,
economic and ecological resilience?
Characteristics of small island environments
• Ecological/environmental
• Geographical
• Socio-economic
• Historical and political
Climate change projections for the Caribbean region
Trends
• Avg. annual air temp 1 F
• Sea level rise 10 cm (3.9 ins) per 100 yrs
• Generally drier conditions
Scenarios for Future Climate
• 2-3 C
• Drier mid-year, wetter end of year
• Ocean surface warming
• Salt water intrusion into freshwater
• Some models suggest more persistent ENSO-like conditions and less but more intense more intense tropical storms (5-10% windspeed)
Changes in the total amount of precipitation and in its frequency andintensity directly affect the magnitude and timing of runoff and theintensity of floods and droughts; however, at present, specific regional effects are uncertain
The impacts of climate change will depend on the baseline conditions of the water supply system and the ability of water resourcemanagers to respond not only to climate change but also to population growth and changes in demands, technology, and economic, social and legislative conditions
Note: the latter are also “baseline” conditions
Where does climate variability Where does climate variability come from?come from?
• NAO
• TA
• ENSO
Trinidad Monthly Rainfall 1997 and 1998
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Month
mm
Mean
PPT97
PPT98
Sugar-industry operations chain
Cane cultivation
•Likelihood of meeting quota•Shipping timing (delays etc)• storage requirement
Marketing and Shipping
•Milling initiation•Cane and sugar storage
•Initiation of harvest•Completion of harvest•Selective harvesting•Road repair•Soil compaction and field conditions•Fire management
Harvest operations and transport
Milling and Sugar production
•Planting schedule•Pesticide and herbicide applications•IPM application•Irrigation timing•Runoff/erosion control•Fire management
• Secondary economies impact, minimizing environmental impacts, land-use/settlements
Tonnes sugarcane per hectare for CARICOM countries 1961-1996
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
Year
ton
nes c
an
e/h
a
Barbados
Belize
Guyana
Jamaica
St. Kitts
Trinidad
Puerto Rico Rainfall 13mth and 109 mth (9year) moving average
4
5
6
7
8
9
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
Year
inch
es
Non-ENSO or Atlantic multi-decadal mode of global sea surface temperature(SST) 1870-2000. (A) spatial correlations between first EOF and Atlantic SSTs; (B) temporal reconstruction of variability averaged over the rectangle in A (Goldenberg et all 2001)
Caribbean hurricane tracks and strength during (A) warm and (B) cold Atlantic multidecadal modes
• The question remains “ Can we produce reliable baselines for planning give the large amount of year to year and decade to decade variations in the Caribbean?”
• Need for careful monitoring and inventory of critical variables and indicators (available and gaps)
• Need for “upscaling” local climate/met./hydro data and experience as well as “downscaling” models (precision vs. accuracy)
UrbanDevelopment
Recreation
Mineral &Fossil FuelExtraction
Conservation& Biodiversity
Health &Disease
Ecosystem &Land Use
Management
Water &Sustainability
Agriculture&
silviculture
…viewed from Sectors
and more…
Integrated Water Resource Assessments
Assessment of biophysical impacts on:• hydrologic resources,• water quality, and• aquatic ecosystem integrity.
Assessment of socio-economic impacts on:• demand from market water use sectors, and• water resources management systems
Water resources adaptations
Supply adaptation:• modification of existing physical infrastructure;• construction of new infrastructure; and• alternative management of the existing water
supply systems
Demand adaptation:• conservation and improved efficiency;• technological change; and• market/price-driven transfers to other activities.
Table 2. Renewable Water Resources in Selected Caribbean States
Source: UNDP, 2000: Table 21, p. 231-234.
Countries Internal renewable waterresources per capita (cubicmetres per year), 2000.
Belize 69565Barbados 303Antigua y Barbuda 770Dominica .Grenada .Guyana 281542Jamaica 3640Trinidad 3869Haiti 1,473World Total 7,122
Trends and conditioning factors
• Unit(s) of analysis: Upstream-downstream,
watershed, urban
• Relevant hydro-climatic variables: data,qc, uncertainties
• Demands : Scale, trends and criticality
• Reliability of supply and distribution
• Separation of regulatory and operational responsibilities
• Integration of water quantity and quality
• Security of rights
• Incorporation of climate issues in existing networks priorities and policies
• Post-audits of past events and technical interventions- if we did or are doing everything possible why did it work or not work?
Established frameworks for water allocation:national level
• Legal basis- water rights, legal/regulatory framework
• Institutional base-Govt. and Non-govt. Mandates,responsibilities and practices
• Technical base-monitoring, assessment, decision support modeling
• Financial and economic aspects-costs/benefits,pricing trading
• Participation• Structural and development base-water supply and operations, users
If so…………
………So what
Optimizing the net social benefit
• Difficulty in dealing with all related social aims of water/natural resource uses
• Difficulty in forging agreed-upon criteria for program evaluation
• Lack of progress in comprehensive integrated management and in coordinating watersheds plans
• Lack of comprehensive assessments of projects and initiatives
“Sufficient, reliable data are not available or shared at present to undertake a thorough analysis of the multiple threats to water resources, forestry, or food security”
e.g. water consumption rates (availability per capita) and access to network water and sanitation facilities: changing levels of domestic water use, deterioration? Of piped water, tourism, costs of obtaining water
IWCAM…
• Institutional mechanisms must be put in place at the national and regional level, to undertake the regular dissemination of user-friendly information on such technologies as well as to assist with the training of nationals in the use of such technology
• Introduction of incentives to encourage the use of appropriate
What does “capacity building” mean in this context?
• Climate simulations & scenarios
• Social trends• Demographics• Energy use• Land use
• Institutions• Policies• Laws
• Values• Politics
• Framing the question
• Synthesis tools• Data assimilation &
visualization• Complexity models• Scenario
development and testing
• Understanding methodologies
• Place-based
• Network design• Platforms• Appropriate mix of
observations• Quality assurance
and control
• Types of models• Scale
• Temporal• Spatial
• Performancemetrics
• Place-based and sector-based
• User oriented• Scenarios and
probabilistic outcomes
• Synthesis
• Distributed dissemination
• New technologies
• Interactive
• User friendly
• Flexible
• Dialog, not two monologues
ImprovedDecisionProcess
….viewed from Information chain
Create a matrix of functional responsibilities of water-related Ministries and organizations to identify pathways
for decision-making
1. Establishing and consolidate a viable scientific basis for water resources management sector and for (inter)national (water) policies
2. Initiating a multi-stakeholder process that builds the knowledge to cope with climate variability and change.
3. Building and share knowledge and information by bridging climate variability/change and water communities
4. Raising awareness of the issues relating climate and water, and broaden scientific, political and water managers participation in the discussion
Potential matrix of responsibilities within agencies, private and community partners________________________________________________________________________
Public and Private Agencies and Organizations
Tasks Water & Met. Agriculture Health Nat. OthersSewerage Services Agribusiness Res.
_______________________________________________________________________Water SupplySanitationIrrigationFlood ControlRecreationWatershed ManagementPortsQuality (Pollution)Groundwater managementInstream managementOther…________________________________________________________________________
Understand Current Vulnerability and Assess Trends
• Effects Related to Altered Resources
• Characterize the Risk of Climatic Variations and Review Past and Potential Responses
• National Food Balance
• Institutional Development
• Household Food Poverty
• Income Components
• Cultural Preferences
• Demography
• Individual Food Deprivation
• Nutritional Status
• Health Status
• Social Status: Three pillars of food security: food production, economic access to available food, and nutritional security
Which group(s) really maintain these pillars?
Developing effective decision environments (a role for C5)
Establish Regional Climate and Natural Resources Roundtables (which also provide for data sharing)
• Serve as a clearinghouse mechanism for promoting, initiating and facilitating climate change programs and policies;
• Review national strategies for enhancing the objectives of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and advising government on the way forward
Such Roundtables should:
• Evaluate options, information, and technology and to examine the sectors that will most benefit from these inputs among existing institutions
• Explore the feasibility of establishing a regional plan of action to identify and adapt, where appropriate, successful examples of water conservation and watershed programs;
• Identify entry points for information at different levels of governance (not just information provision)
Climate and cross-scale watershed issues: Linear vs. Adaptive management
Indeterminate
Long-term
Decade
Year
Seasonal
Monthly
Daily
Hourly
GlobalNational
RegionalParish/CountyHousehold-municipal-
Developing prototypes or pilot studies for climate impacts assessments
• Select the exposure unit (usually at the watershed)
• Define the study area and critical issue
• Determine general data availability and adequacy
• Select a time horizon
• Identify trends and influences on trend for critical issues
• Identify a preliminary range of adaptations
• Determine the need for integration across sectors
Problem-orientation
• Do we really know how we adjust to drought condtions?
UrbanDevelopment
Recreation
Mineral &Fossil FuelExtraction
Conservation& Biodiversity
Health &Disease
Ecosystem &Land Use
Management
Water &Sustainability
Agriculture&
silviculture
…viewed from Sectors
and more…
• Climate simulations& scenarios
• Social trends• Demographics• Energy use• Land use
• Institutions• Policies• Laws
• Values• Politics
• Framing the question• Synthesis tools
• Data assimilation &visualization
• Complexity models• Scenario development
and testing• Understanding
methodologies• Place-based
• Network design• Platforms• Appropriate mix of
observations• Quality assurance
and control
• Types of models• Scale
• Temporal• Spatial
• Performancemetrics
• Place-based andsector-based
• User oriented• Scenarios and
probabilisticoutcomes
• Synthesis
• Distributeddissemination
• New technologies
• Interactive
• User friendly
• Flexible
• Dialog, not twomonologues
ImprovedDecisionProcess
….viewed from Information chain
How do we effectively integrate these two?……
Differing perspectives on the Use of Climate InformationBetween Scientists and Water Managers
Factor Scientist’s Perspective Water Manager’sPerspective
Identifying a critical issue Based on a broadunderstanding of the natureof water management
Based on experience ofparticular, urgentcircumstance
Time frame Indefinite ImmediateGoals Prediction
ExplanationUnderstanding of naturalsystem
Optimization ofmultiple conditions andminimization of risk
Basis for Decisions Generalizing multiple factsand observationsUse of scientificprocedures, methodsAvailability of researchfunding
TraditionProcedureProfessional judgmentTrainingEconomicsPolitics
Expectation UnderstandingOngoing improvement(project never actuallycomplete)Statistical significance ofresults
Accuracy ofinformationAppropriatemethodologyPrecisionSave money, timeProtect the public
Product Characteristics ComplexScientifically defensible
As simple as possiblewithout losing accuracyImportance of context
Frame Physical (atmospheric)conditions as driversDependent on scientificdiscipline
Safety, well beingProfitConsistency withinstitutional culture
Nature of Use Conceptual Applied
Approaches to risk communication and associated assumptions
___________________________________________________________________________
Approach Assumptions and actions
Development and From the risk expert to the public--finite and delivery of a risk message uni-directional
Aimed at bringing public views into line with expert viewsAssumes expert view has more validity for decision-
making
Dialogue about risk Interactive exchange of risk information--continuousAimed at balancing the content of risk messageAssumes both views contribute to decision-making
Social processes Engage in a process that addresses concerns about riskof risk communication Aimed at enhancing understanding among stakeholders
(DECISIVE AND NON-DECISIVE). Assumes the process is as important as the product
_____________________________________________________________________________i.e. more than a one-way or even two-way street
Link pilots to strong institutional mechanisms: Realizing implementation
• Past recommendations and interventions: How
effective were they? What criteria are used for evaluation?
• Not simply communicating after project is over
Involving local organizations in planning andimplementation• Partnerships (not just stakeholder assessments)
• How is the common interest pursued and secured? Where and why have particular local organizations been successful and sustained?
Mainstreaming……..
• What partnerships need to be engaged? What activities already exist?
• Goals of participants: What is being valued? (by “experts and role of experts”, state agencies, NGOs, local communities) Whose agenda are we agreeing on?
• Trends: Robustness: choice, inventory and baselines
• Conditioning factors: reconstructing influences on events, past interventions
• Projections (scenarios and uncertainties)
• Alternatives: acting under uncertain information
• Pathways to decision-making: ,data, methods,Entry points: salience, legitimacy, acceptability, context
How does innovation occur?Rate of adoption of knowledge-based innovation in
water resources agenciesY= f(Xi)
Xi = (compatibility of innovation with needs and values
.capacity and characteristics
.1/complexity of innovation
.communicability within agency
.communication networks outside (incl. other resources and other
national water agencies)
.% of initial innovators
.investment in innovation
Rate of adoption of knowledge-based innovation Y= f(Xi)
Xi =
.observability in practice:who is else is involved?
.evaluation of support tools:DSS,pricing (transfer of tested and untested approaches)
.respect conferred)