Maine Greenhouse Gas Proposed Baseline Methodologies

Tom Peterson, CCAP

11/6/03 CCAP 2

Maine Baseline State baseline is sum of the following sectors

– Electricity generation– Industrial

• includes non-CO2 for process gases, natural gas & oil systems, and stationary combustion

– Commercial– Residential– Transportation Transportation

• includes non-CO2 mobile source combustion

– Agriculture/Forestry – Waste Management

11/6/03 CCAP 3

Maine Historical Baseline The NESCAUM Inventory will provide

information for the 1990-2000 period CCAP will verify the NESCAUM inventory

using:– EIA State Energy Report Data by sector, by fuel-type

(1990-2000)– EPA’s State Inventory assumptions – Adjustment to the historical baseline will be made on

an as-needed basis with input from working groups & Stakeholders

11/6/03 CCAP 4

Maine Future Baseline

Future baseline methodology– CCAP will project year 2000 inventory levels

out to 2020 based on the best sector specific sources with input from Stakeholders

11/6/03 CCAP 5

General Baseline Issues Historical CO2 estimates vary by source

– EIA State Data Reports, EIA’s AEO 2003 report, EPA E-Grid, and the Electric Power Annual do not agree on emissions levels

– Electric utilities, industrial sectors show greatest variance.

– Percentage growth estimates may be less accurate than quantity growth estimates

– depends on accuracy of base and differences between NE and Maine growth patterns

Differences in baseline levels are magnified through time

11/6/03 CCAP 6

Electric Utility Sector

Background Issues: – EIA data misclassifies electricity sector energy use data

(e.g coal) due to deregulation

– Non-utility generators are reported under industry

– Large differences in emission estimates obtained by using different data sources (EIA, E-grid, Electric Power Annual etc)

Method:– Present alternative projections using various sources to

Stakeholders for reaction and input

11/6/03 CCAP 7

Renewables Assumptions

Energy Type Potential Cost/Performance

Wind DOE/NREL w/ adjusted regional cost curves

Merged EIA & DOE Wind

Landfill Gas EPA LMOP ICF/EIA

Biomass Northeast Regional Biomass Program

ICF/EIA

Solar ICF/EIA ICF/EIA

Fuel Cells CCEF CCEF

Small Hydro EIA? – ICF check EIA? – ICF check

11/6/03 CCAP 8

Electricity Baseline

EIANatural Gas Prices

ICF w/ Working Group input on international

coal

Coal supply, minemouth and transportation prices

ICFFinancing for Capital Projects

– new builds and retrofits

ICFReserve Margin Assumptions

New England: ISO-NE 2003 Forecast, 2005-

2012 growth; EIA 2013-2022 growth

Other Regions: EIA

CT, NEPOOL and National Load and Peak Demand

Forecast

SourceItem

EIANatural Gas Prices

ICF w/ Working Group input on international

coal

Coal supply, minemouth and transportation prices

ICFFinancing for Capital Projects

– new builds and retrofits

ICFReserve Margin Assumptions

New England: ISO-NE 2003 Forecast, 2005-

2012 growth; EIA 2013-2022 growth

Other Regions: EIA

CT, NEPOOL and National Load and Peak Demand

Forecast

SourceItem

EPAEmissions and Control

Assumptions

NREL, EIA, EPAGreenfield Cost and

Performance Characteristics of Renewable Generation

ISO New England for NEPOOL, ICF

for otherFirm Builds

ICFNew Build Emissions Profiles

EIA

Greenfield Cost and Performance Characteristics

of Conventional (fossil) Generation

SourceItem

EPAEmissions and Control

Assumptions

NREL, EIA, EPAGreenfield Cost and

Performance Characteristics of Renewable Generation

ISO New England for NEPOOL, ICF

for otherFirm Builds

ICFNew Build Emissions Profiles

EIA

Greenfield Cost and Performance Characteristics

of Conventional (fossil) Generation

SourceItem

11/6/03 CCAP 9

Natural Gas Prices

Wellhead Natural Gas Price-Lower 48

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Year

20

01

Do

lla

rs/

Th

ou

san

d F

t3

EPA 2000 Base Case

EEA

EIA

-U.S. EIA numbers taken from the 2003 Annual Electric Outlook-EPA numbers are from the EPA Basecase 2000 derived from The Gas System Analysis Model (GSAM), a detailed gas supply model, originally developed by ICF Consulting, Inc. for the U.S. Department of Energy,

ICF

EEA

11/6/03 CCAP 10

CT Electricity Baselines

Connecticut Emissions Baseline

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 2000 2010 2020

MM

TCO

2E

Advanced Modeling (IPM)

'Bottom Up' Emissions

NEG Target

11/6/03 CCAP 11

Transportation Sector

Background Issues:– Data discrepancy between historic fuel use & VMT

Method: – Initially use historical gasoline and diesel growth rates

– Compare historical growth to AEO projections and studies done for Maine (i.e. DOT VMT projections)

– Grow other fuels at AEO 2003 rates

– Projection of NESCAUM’s mobile source combustion non-CO2 emissions based on fuel use

11/6/03 CCAP 12

Industrial Sector Background Issues:

– Inclusion of fuel use for power generation in 1997-2000 EIA state data may distort basis for projection

– May not account for recent state actions Method:

– Grow NESCAUM fossil fuel combustion values based upon AEO2003 projections for New England

– Extrapolation of NESCAUM’s oil & natural gas systems emissions & non-CO2 stationary combustion base on fuel use

– Process gases based on EPA national forecasts adjusted for historical state percentage

11/6/03 CCAP 13

Commercial Sector

Background Issues: – Regional growth may not accurately depict

Maine’s growth– May not account for recent state actions

Method: – Grow EIA state data based upon AEO 2003

regional projection

11/6/03 CCAP 14

Residential Sector

Background Issues: – Regional growth may not accurately depict

Maine’s growth– May not account for recent state actions

Method: – Grow EIA state data based upon AEO 2003

regional projection

11/6/03 CCAP 15

Agriculture, Forestry & Waste

Background Issues:– Trends may not continue into future– May not account for recent state actions

Method: – Agriculture, forestry, and waste sectors use

estimates projected using NESCAUM’s historical 1990-2000 trend

11/6/03 CCAP 16

Existing ME Actions

Existing actions may impact Maine’s baseline Investigate what actions are included in the state’s

current GHG inventory– Power sector

• Renewable energy funds?

• Renewable portfolio standard (RPS)?

– Residential and commercial sectors• Building code standards?

• Appliance efficiency standards?

11/6/03 CCAP 17

Potential Existing ME Actions Transportation sector

– Low-GHG vehicle standards?– Efficient fleet requirements?– Improved VMT data collection – Complementary transportation & land use modeling

Agriculture and forestry sectors– Reduction programs/BMP’s?– Offset requirements?

11/6/03 CCAP 18

Baseline Data Issues Imports v. exports Fuel sales v. consumption Common metrics Data limits

– Monitoring and modeling methods? – Level of detail on activities and regions?

Non CO2 gases? – CH4, N2O, SFC’s, HFC’s, PFC’s, Black Carbon?

Ancillary costs and benefits?