MAIN TRENDS FOR RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2009 … Pillot The rechargeable...Main trends for...

MAIN TRENDS FOR RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2009-2020

Information for growth

Christophe PILLOT

[email protected]


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PROFILE AVICENNE

Creation: 1992

Headquarter: Paris

Liaison Office: Japan, USA

Director: M. Madani

Battery Survey Manager: C. Pillot

Information for a competitive EdgePowering your company’s market strategy with in-depth research

@

2Main trends for rechargeable battery market - Cannes, September 2010


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METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION

Conferences & Exhibitions

In Depth analysisOf applications

Top management contact network Cross Check Analysis

Battery Makers

Battery Users

Raw materials suppliers

Environment & recycling

Safety

Substitution technologies:

SuperCap, Fuel cells


http://www.makita.com/Cordless_Image_View.asp?id=53

http://www.shavercentre.com/remington_r860.html

http://www.afs-guenzburg.de/xpc26standard.htm

http://www.batteryjapan.jp/en/Top/

http://www.thebatteryshow.com/index.php


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OUR SURVEY

Specific surveys&

“The rechargeable Battery market & its main application 2009 -2020” 19th Edition - (last Up-date SEPT 2010)

o Published yearly since 1994o More than 650 slideso Available in English, on CD Rom, E-mail, or Paper versiono 10 years forecastso Divided and purchasable by Applications : HEV, P-HEV, EV, Cellular Phones,

Portable PCs, Cordless Tools, Toys, Home Appliances, Security lighting systems, RC Cars, Digital Camera, ...

o Geographic Areas : North America, Japan, Western Europe, Asia-Pacific, China, Others

o More than 60 yearly customers

HEV, P-HEV & EV – Battery is the key – Jan 2010

Small & Micro Fuel cells market (2003 - 2010)

@

www.avicenne.com



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MORE THAN 100 REFERENCES WORLDWIDE

A123 Air Liquide Air Product Alcatel Amperex (ATL) Aros Securities ARC Atofina - Arkema AT Kearney Axeon Bain Battery R&D Association of

Korea B&D BHP Billiton Brand Licencing Parners (BLP) Bourns Bosch BYD Cap X Catella Carbone Lorraine CDN Cobalt CEA/LITEN Celgard Chemetall CIAPS CIBA CNRS Cogema CRU Group CSC Challenge Strategy Change DELTA DGA

Dialog Semiconductor Dow Chemical Dupont Duracell EDF Electro Energy Ener 1 Energizer ETC AB Facom Falcon Bridge Fairshild semiconductor Fameart FIST Floridienne de Chimie FMC Lithium Fortu Power Cell France Telecom Fulton Innovation GAIA GIL Import Batteries Ltd. GS Melcotec HC Starck (Bayer) HILTI Hitachi Maxell Hollingsworth & Vose Cie Honeywell HPL (High Power Lithium) Hutchinson IER IGL Export. International Component Inco Intersil

ITRI ITS Johnson Controls JBC Kodak Kruger Lazard Leclanché Legrand LG Chemical Lion cells Little Fuse Lilipucian Lynas Corp Matsushita Microsoft MTI Micro Fuel Cells Mindbranch Moltech Molycorp Motorola NCCP - Russia Nitech NKKPC – Brett Nelson Norilsk Nickel NTK Powerdex OMG Inc Panasonic Philips PK & Wise PRAYON PSA Rayovac Renault

Rhodia Saft Samsung SDI Sanik Schroder Venture Scotent Entreprise Shenzhen High Power

Technology Schott AG SKC SVE - Dassault Solvay Sony Stibat Storck Toda Kogyo TOTAL Total Wireless Solution Toyota Tyco Umicore Uniross Varta Warburgpincus World Industrial Information

Center WR Grace & Cie Zebra ZPower



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KEY ISSUES

What is the Battery market today ?

NiCd, NiMH, Li-ion Battery Market

What are the driven applications?

NiCd Future?

Li-ion Development: Which Cathode?

HEV, P-HEV, EV market: which battery?

What will be the market in 2015, 2020?

o Energy storage market?

o Li-ion cost?

o New development?

o New applications?

How to bridge the gap between power or energy needs and

what the market offers today

while still providing safe solutions?



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1999 -> 2010

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1999 2010

M of Cellular Phones sold

Li-ion

NiMH


0

50

100

150

200

250

1999 2010

Million of Portable PC sold

Li-ion

NiMH

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

1999 2010

Li-ion cell price ($/Wh)

05000

100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000

1999 2010

Tons of Li-ion Cathode


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OUTLINE

1. Rechargeable battery market 2010

2. Battery market trends

3. EV, HEV & PHEV battery market

4. Forecasts by 2015 & 2020



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WORLDWIDE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

Mill

ion

Wh

The worldwide rechargeable battery market, MWh, 1995-2010

Ni-Cd Ni-MH Li-Ion


SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2009-2020 , AVICENNE, SEPT 2010

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

M U

S$

Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, 1995-2010

NiCd NiMH Li-ion


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THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET IN 2010

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

M U

S$

Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, by application 2000-2010

HEV

Others

Power tools

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones


Cellular Phones

31%

Portable PCs28%

Power tools8%

Others22%

HEV11%

Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, by application

2010



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[email protected] TRENDS FOR RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET - CANNES, SEPTEMBER 2010

JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN MARKET SHARE, IN VALUE, 2010

Japanese market share (value) decreases : from 82 % of the market in 2001 to less than 75% in 2003 & 48% in 2010

JAPANESE SALES4.8 Billions $ in 2010(09/10 growth : +7 %)

CHINESE SALES2.4 B$ in 2010(09/10 growth : +9 %)

REST OF THE WORLD< 0.1 B$ in 2009

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Rechargeable battery market by country

KOREAN SALES2,5 B$ in 2009(09/10 growth : +19%)

Source : AVICENNE Compilation, March 2010

11


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NIMH IN 2010MAIN APPLICATION: HEV

Cordless Phones

9%

Retail: RC cars,Toys,

Household, DSC, 18%

HEV65%

Others8%

NiMH battery by applications, worldwide, % in value, 2010

1 200 M NiMH cells – 3 500 MWh1.65 B$

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2000 2003 2006 2009

% o

f H

EV b

atte

ry in

NIM

H r

even

ues

M$

NiMH battery market worldwide in value% for HEV application

Others HEV % of HEV in NiMH sales

CAGR 2005/2010+14% per year in Volume

+10% per year in value

12MAIN TRENDS FOR RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET - CANNES, SEPTEMBER 2010



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LI-ION IN 2010MAIN APPLICATION: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

M $

Li-ion Battery sales,M$, Worldwide, 2000-2010

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

3 200 M Li-ion cells – 21 000 MWh

7 400 M$

CAGR 2004/2009:+19% per year in volume

+10% per year in value

13

-

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

M $

Li-ion Battery sales,M$, Worldwide, 2000-2010

Power tools Camcorders Digital camera MP3Games Others

MAIN TRENDS FOR RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET - CANNES, SEPTEMBER 2010



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NEW MATERIALS FOR HIGHER CAPACITY OR LOWER PRICE

INCREASING ENERGY & POWER

Source: Ovonics, March 2010

NiMH:

Ni & Co LME PRICES

SOURCE: LME, SEPT 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

$/k

g

Ni

Co

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source : AVICENNE Compilation, September 2010

MAIN TRENDS FOR RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET - CANNES, SEPTEMBER 2010 14


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RAW MATERIALS FOR LI-ION BATTERIES – 2010

ELECTROLYTE

15 000 tons

CATHODE

40 000 tons Active Materials

ANODE

24 000 tons active materials

SEPARATORS

300 M m²

LiCoO2LiMPO4

LiMn2O4

Li[NixMnyCoz]O2

NCM

Li[NixCozMnAl]O2

NCA

Graphite

Si

Sn

SiO2-Si

ASAHI

TONEN

CELGARD

UBE

ENTEK

UBE

CHIELMitsubishi

Tomiyama

15MAIN TRENDS FOR RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET - CANNES, SEPTEMBER 2010


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CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS BY CHEMISTRY

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Ton

s o

f A

ctiv

e C

ath

od

e m

ater

ials

Cathode active materials for Li-ion batteries, in Tons, 2000-2010

LiFePO4

NMC - NCA

LiMn2O4

LiCoO2

LiCoO259%

LiMn2O48%

NCM / NCA30%

LiMPO42%

Cathode active materials for Li-ion batteries, % of volume, 2010




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SAFETY ISSUE

Battery Makers

OEMBattery recall

Date Cost

Matsushita Nokia 46 M cells 08/07 100–200 M$

Sanyo Mitsubishi 1.3 M cells 12/06 35 M $

SonyDell, Apple,

Toshiba, Lenovo,...

10 M Packs

65 M cells2006 430 M$

.....

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

Op

era

tin

g p

rofi

t/R

eve

nu

e

RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT

Sanyo

MBI

BYD

SGS

Sony

NEC

Maxell

LGC

SDI

Average

More & more incidents & accidents

All the battery makers and the OEM are concerned

Recall cost impact drastically the battery business and the profitability

17




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PARAMETERS IMPACTING THE BATTERY MARKET FORECATS

Electronic devices (Portable PCs) market is increasing

Requiring more & more energy

Electronic devices usage is increasing

Electric Vehicle market is increasing

Government incentives (CO2

Emission, ...)

Gasoline Prices

High investments for new battery plants worldwide

SAFETY issues for both portable & HEV Li-ion batteries

Raw materials price increase: Ni for NiMH & Co for Li-ion

Less Investment

Profit are low even negative in case of recall

ASP will decrease

Li-ion Next Step?

HEV, P-HEV & EV market

Gasoline price decrease (??)

EV mass market (??)

Li-ion cost

8 to 10 years of battery life is required

Safety problems, accident, recall

DRIVERS LIMITERS



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WHY ELECTRIC VEHICLES?

Source :Energy Information Administration, US Government

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

US

$ /

bar

rel

Price of the WTI barrel of oil, US $

Source :http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

CO2 density in the atmosphere increase

IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007,

Synthesis Report p38


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Mill

ion

bar

rels

per

day

Petroleum consumption worldwide 1960-2009


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HEV, P-HEV & EVDEFINITION & SEGMENTATION

> 144 v

… - 14 v

14 – 42 v

42 – 144 v

MICRO MILD MEDIUM FULL

HYBRID LEVELS:

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $

Fuel saving Vs. Cost

HEV

P-HEV

EV


*Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast

EV & HEV MARKET

EV25 kWh

HEV0.6-2 kWh batteries

MICROHEV*

MILD HEV

MEDIUMHEV

FULL HEV

P HEV5 kWh

batteries

CITROEN C3TOYOTA VITZ

GM Saturn VueGM AURA

GM MALIBUHONDA ACCORD

HONDA CIVICINSIGHT

MERCEDES S400

TOYOTA PRIUSTOYOTA CAMRY

FORD ESCAPEFORD FUSION

MILANGM YUKONGM TAHOE

NISSAN ALTIMA


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HEV MARKET

0,0%

0,2%

0,4%

0,6%

0,8%

1,0%

1,2%

1,4%

0,0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

Mill

ion

HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide,2000 - 2010

TOYOTA OTHERS %


1,3% of vehicle sold worldwide in 2010 was Hybrid

USA

JAPAN

EUROPE0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Pen

etra

tio

n o

f h

ybri

ds

in t

he

glo

bal

e s

ales

Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, 2000-2010

Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast



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HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2010

TOYOTA

78%

HONDA

16%

FORD

4%

NISSAN

1%

GM

1%

MERCEDES

0,3%

Total HEV Vehicles: 900 000 units in 2010

SOURCE : TOYOTA, HONDA, GM, FORD, CHRYSLER


HONDA

FORD

GMNISSAN

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

‘ 00

0 H

EV s

old

HEV sold per year, M units per car manufacturers, 2000-2009

HONDA FORD GM NISSAN

TOYOTA

HONDA

FORD

GM0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

‘ 00

0 H

EV s

old

HEV sold per year, M units per car manufacturers, 2000-2010

TOYOTA HONDA FORD GM NISSAN



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HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2010

23

USA

JAPAN

EUROPE

OTHERS0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

0,45

0,50

Mill

ion

HEV sold per year, M units per country,2000-2010

USA JAPAN EUROPE OTHERS

USA30%

JAPAN55%

EUROPE11%

OTHERS4%

Total HEV Vehicles: 900 000 units in 2010





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HEV FORECASTS UP TO 2015

HEV MARKET IN 2015 : 2,2 Million units (1)


(2) HEV & hybrid excluding micro hybrids

(1) Assumptions:- >75 M vehicle sold WW in 2015- 3% Hybrids

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015

Pe

net

rati

on

of

hyb

rid

s in

th

e g

lob

ale

sal

es

Penetration of hybrids (2) in the global sales, 2000-2015

USA

JAPAN

EUROPE

AVERAGE WW

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015H

hyb

rid

sso

ld W

orl

dw

ide

‘ 00

0 u

nit

s

Penetration of hybrids (2) in the global sales, 2000-2015

USA

JAPAN

EUROPE

RoW



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NIMH BATTERY DEVELOPMENTS

0

50

100

150

200

250

Ca

pa

cit

y (m

Ah

) fo

r N

iMH

ce

ll -

Ind

ex

10

0 in

19

96

NiMH Capacity is increasing Exemple of AA NiMH

(index 100 in 1996)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

NiM

H C

ost

pe

r k

Wh

-In

de

x 1

00

in

19

96

NiMH cost per kWh is decreasing(index 100 in 1996)

PRIUS II PRIUS III

Capacity 6.5 Ah 6.5 Ah

Cells 228 (38 * 6) 168 (28 * 6)

Voltage 273.6 v 201.6 v

Specific power 1000 W/kg 1300 W/kg

Specific energy 46 Wh/kg 46 Wh/kg

Total power/HEV 36 kW 37.8 kW

Total energy/HEV 1778 Wh 1310 Wh




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NIMH BATTERIES FOR HEV IN 2009/2010

PEVE

75,5%

PANASO

NIC

4,7%

SANYO

19,7%

COBASYS

0,2%

PEVE SANYO Panasonic COBASYS JCS

PR

OD

UC

TIO

N

TOYOTA

LEXUS

HONDA

FORD

NISSAN

GM

BMW

DAIMLER

CHRYSLER

DEV

ELO

PM

ENT VW o

DAIMLER o

BMW o

PSA o

CHERY o


Thanks to TOYOTA, Panasonic EV, got more than 75% of the HEV battery market and a large know-how

0 20 40 60 80 100

PEVE

Panasonic

SANYO

COBASYS

Million NiMH cells

NiMH battery & Car makers relationshipsin 2009/2010

TOYOTA

HONDA

FORD

NISSAN

GM

Supply -o Development SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2009-2020 , AVICENNE, SEPT 2010


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LI-ION PENETRATION IN VARIOUS DEVICESAVICENNE & OTHER ANALYSTS FORECAST

Cellular Phones(to = 1994) Portable PCs

(to = 1994)

Power Tools(to = 2004)

AVICENNE (1)

to=2010

AVICENNE(2)

to=2010

IIT(3)

(to=2009)

AAB(4)

(to=2009)

TIAX (5)

(to=2009)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Li-i

on

pen

etra

tio

n in

ele

ctro

nic

dev

ices

& H

EV

YEARS

(1) AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Relevant scenario(2) AVICENNE HEV Forecasts, march 09, Li-ion Optimistic scenario(3) IIT, TAKESHITA, March 08, THE 25th INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR & EXHIBIT, Slide 8 & March 2009, 26th Battery Seminar, Slide 5(4) AAB, Menahem ANDERMAN, Ph.D, Tampa, Florida, May 2009(5) TIAX, Brian BARNETT, Ph.D, Testifying Expert for University of Texas , March 2009


SOURCE: AVICENNE COPMPILATION, MARCH 2010


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NIMH & LI-ION BATTERY FOR HEVMARKET FORECASTS (2002-2015)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

MW

h

NiMH & Li-ion cells sold per year, MWh, worldwide, 2000-2015

NiMH Li-ion

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

$ U

S, M

illio

n

NiMH & Li-ion market for HEV, Million $US, worldwide, 2000-2015

NiMH Li-ion


SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2009-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2010


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SHORT TERMHEV IMPACT ON NIMH BATTERY MARKET

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

M U

S$

NIMH Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, 2000-2015

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

M U

S$

NiMH Battery sales, M US$, Worldwide, 2000-2015

HEV

Others

THE NIMH BATTERY MARKET WILL

INCREASE THANKS TO HEV

IN 2015, >70% OF THE NIMH BATTERIES

WILL BE SOLD FOR HEV


SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2009-2020 , AVICENNE, MARCH 2010


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LONG TERM HEV FORECASTFROM 3 TO 8 M HEV IN 2020


AVICENNE Oct 2009

Deutsche Bank (June 2008)

Deutsche Bank (Nov 2009)

Credit Suisse

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2005 2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

s

HEV FORECASTS (Million)

AVICENNE (Oct 2009)

Deutsche Bank (June 2008)

Deutsche Bank (Nov 2009)

IIT (March 2010)

Credit Suisse

AABC (March 2010)

Nomura (March 2009)


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LONG TERMHEV BATTERY FORECASTS

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

Nu

mb

er o

f H

EV s

old

wo

rld

wid

e (M

illio

n)

HEV market, million units, worldwide, 2005-2020

HEV (million)

% of Li-ion - Relevant Scenario

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

% o

f Li

-io

n b

atte

ry in

HEV

M$

HEV battery market worldwide, million $2000-2020

NiMH

Li-ion

Penetration of Li-ion in IHV (%)



SOURCE : THE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2009-2020 , AVICENNE, SEPTEMBER 2010


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LI-ION BATTERIES DEVELOPMENTS FOR HEV, P-HEV & EV

Li-ion is THE solution for the future

BUT, SAFETY, LIFE TIME & COST issues

Lot of technical solutions (NMC, NCA, LFP, LCO...)

Lot of EXPENSIVE Developments…

So,

Lot of JV, partnerships etc...

PRIUS III NiMH PRIUS x - Li-ion

Volts 201.6 201.6

Cells 168 (28*6) 56

Capacity 6.5 Ah 3.8 Ah

Energy 1310 Wh 766 Wh

Weight 38 kg 25 kg

T°C Range + +

Cyclability + ++

Safety

Cost

Main trends for rechargeable battery market - Cannes, September 2010 32

TOYOTA NISSAN HONDA FORD MITSUBISHI DAIMLER BYD AUTO BOSCH CONTINENTAL JC

PANASONIC PEVE

NEC AESC

GSY JV (HEV) LEJ (EV)

SDI SB LiMotive

SAFT JV

BYD JV in China HEV, EV

ENAX Partner

MAGNA Partner

JOINT VENTURE & STRONG PARTNERSHIP


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LI-ION BATTERY COST


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

$/k

Wh

LI-ION BATTERY COSTCELLS / PACK

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

$ /

kW

h

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EVAVICENNE FORECASTS

BMS

Pack production

Production cellule

Autres Matériaux

Cathode

2015* 2020**

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year** USBAC Goal in 2020



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HEV, P-HEV & EV LONG TERM FORECASTSEV ENERGY NEED: 25 MORE THAN HEV!


0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020

AVICENNE S1

IIT (Feb 2010)

AAB (Feb 2010)

Deutsche Bank

Roland Berger

Deutsche Bank

AVICENNE S2

4

50

45

400

1000

10000

25000

1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000

Mobile Phone

Portable PC

Piower Tools

E-bikes

HEV

P-HEV

EV

Average Wh per device


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LONG TERMEV, PHEV & HEV BATTERY FORECASTS

35

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

M U

S$

AUTOMOTIVE RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET M US$, Worldwide, 2005-2020

(Pack level)

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

M W

h

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M Wh) 2005 - 2020

EV25 kWh

P-HEV 10 kWh

HEV1 kWh

Assumptions2,2 M HEV in 20153,5 M in 202035% Li-ion in 2020

0.1 M P-HEV in 20150.4 M in 2020100% Li-ion

100 000 EV in 2015400 000 in 2020100% Li-ion



Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

TOTAL LIB DEMAND

36

Assumptions2,2 M HEV in 20153,5 M in 202035% Li-ion in 2020

0.1 M P-HEV in 20150.4 M in 2020100% Li-ion

200 000 EV in 20151M in 2020100% Li-ion


-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

M W

h

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (M Wh) 2005 – 2020 (Scenario 2)

EV25 kWh

P-HEV 10 kWh

HEV1 kWh

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

M W

h

Total battery demand (M Wh) 2005 – 2020

EV25 kWh

P-HEV 10 kWh

HEV1 kWh

Li-ion except Auto

NiMH except Auto

NiCd


Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

TAKEAWAYS

The Hybrid vehicle is the only mass market choice for electric traction cars today

Toyota opened this market and earn money with HEV models

The hybrid vehicles is now a niche market: in 2015 we believe more than 2,1 million Hybrid cars will be sold worldwide

The battery technology is today the NiMH, we don’t expect the Li-ion to be significant on the HEV mass market

P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion

1 M EV represent roughly 20 000 MWh, or 40 000 tones of cathode materials!

HEV, P-HEV & EV will change the gasoline dogma in the car Industry. In the next decade, we are expecting one of the world most important disruption in the car industry

Then, EV could change totally the battery market on a long term basis.


0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2010 2015 2020

M U

S$

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET M US$, Worldwide, 2005-2020 - PACK LEVEL (S2)

NiCd NiMH

Li-ion NiMH for HEV


Tel.: + 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

CONTACT

Christophe Pillot

Phone + 33 -1 - 47 78 46 00Fax + 33 - 1 - 47 78 46 01

[email protected] our Web Site : www.avicenne.com


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