Macular Degeneration AMD and other Retinal Diseases 2014 2024

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Macular Degeneration (AMD) and Other Retinal Diseases:

World Drug Market 2014-2024

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Contents

1.1 Overview of Findings

1.2 Chapters in the Report

1.3 Research and Analysis Methods

2.1 Market to Make Rapid Strides to 2024

2.2 Lucentis Still Holds Over 70% of the Total Market

2.2.1 Novartis the Leading Presence in the Market

2.3 Which are the Most Significant Disease Areas for the Market?

2.3.1 Nearly 200 Million People with AMD?

2.3.2 Over 100 Million with DR

2.3.3 First RVO Estimates Suggest Patient Population of 16 Million

2.3.4 Wet AMD Still the Main Source of Revenues in the Market

2.4 Wet AMD: Angiogenic Processes Offer Well-Defined Drug Targets

2.5 Dry AMD: Unmet Need to Arrest or Reverse Damage to RPE

2.6 DR: Coming Into Clinical Focus, with DME the Main Target

2.7 Lucentis and Eylea Label Extensions Highlight Possibilities in Other Disease Areas

2.8 Projections for All Segments, 2014-2024

3.1 Will the Current Products Dominate the Market Through 2024?

3.2 Lucentis: The Market Leader, But For How Long?

3.2.1 Shadow of Avastin Still Hangs Over Lucentis

3.2.2 CATT Study Results: Clinical Differences Still Have Yet to Emerge

1. Executive Summary

2. Overview of the AMD and Other Retinal Diseases Market, 2014-2024

3. Approved Products in the AMD and Other Retinal Diseases Market,

2014-2024

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Contents 3.2.3 Eylea: The Bigger Threat to Lucentis?

3.2.4 Extending the Label, Widening the Battleground: Lucentis Moves Into DME and Beyond

3.2.5 Improving Cost and Compliance for Lucentis

3.2.6 Will Loss of Physician Goodwill Harm Lucentis’ Growth?

3.2.7 Lucentis Revenue Forecast 2014-2024

3.3 Eylea: Pretender to the Throne?

3.3.1 VIEW 1 and VIEW 2: Is Eylea Superior or Just Non-Inferior to Lucentis?

3.3.2 First Wave of Eylea’s Expansion Finally Beginning to Break?

3.3.3 Into DME and Other New Indications

3.3.4 Zaltrap Targeting Solid Tumour Markets

3.3.5 How Far Can Eylea’s Momentum Carry It?

3.3.6 Eylea Revenue Forecast 2014-2024

3.4 Avastin: No Formal wAMD Approval But Still the Most-Used Product

3.4.1 Judicial Review Averted in the UK by Price Adjustment

3.4.2 Multiple Attempts to Block Off-Label Avastin Since 2007

3.4.3 Roche and Novartis Challenge CATT’s Headline Conclusions

3.4.4 Will Eylea/Zaltrap Affect Avastin’s Place in the Market?

3.4.5 Will Anything Dislodge Avastin from its Central Position?

3.4.6 Market Forecast for Avastin, 2014-2024

4.1 Eylea The Segment’s Biggest Short-Term Driver

4.2 R&D Pipeline for wAMD: The Leading Candidates

4.3 Fovista (Ophthotech Corporation): The Next Big Thing?

4.3.1 Three Phase 3 Trials to Confirm Fovista’s Outstanding Phase 2 Results

4.3.2 Ophthotech Goes Public to Fund Phase 3 Effort

4.3.3 Improving Angiogenesis Inhibition by Blocking Pericyte Recruitment

4.3.4 The Move Toward Combination Therapies

4.4 Squalamine (OHR Pharmaceutical): Combination Targeting in a Single Eyedrop

4.4.1 Preclinical DARPin Hits VEGF and PDGF

4. Wet AMD Segment, 2014-2024

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Contents 4.4.2 NT-506 (Neurotech Pharmaceutical): Sustained-Release VEGF/PDGF Options

4.4.3 Other Growth Factor Targets in the Pipeline

4.4.4 iSONEP (Lpath): Pfizer Interested in Anti-S1P MAb

4.5 Conbercept (Chengdu Kanghong Biotech): The Other Phase 3 Candidate in wAMD

4.5.1 A Chinese Competitor: Where Will Conbercept Fit In?

4.5.2 Binding Affinity Comparable to Eylea

4.6 Do We Need New Anti-VEGFR Agents or Delivery Systems?

4.6.1 AGN-150998 DARPin (Allergan): Novel Protein With Extended Half-Life

4.6.2 ESBA 1008 (Alcon): Single-Chain mAb Fragment

4.6.3 PDS 1.0 (ForSight Vision4): A New Option for Lucentis Delivery

4.6.4 NT-503 (Neurotech): New Delivery Platform for Anti-VEGF Agent

4.6.5 Pan-90806 (PanOptica): Anti-VEGF Eyedrop in Preclinical Development

4.6.6 Iontophoretic Delivery: Eyegate Pharmaceuticals Leading the Way

4.7 Novel Delivery Systems to Rejuvenate Anti-Inflammatory Approaches

4.7.1 IBI-20089 (Icon Bioscience): Steroid Gel for Slow Release

4.7.2 OT-551 (Colby Pharmaceutical): An Alternative Anti-Inflammatory Approach?

4.8 Other Targets Under Investigation in wAMD Drug Development

4.8.1 Are Kinase Inhibitors Still a Going Concern in wAMD?

4.8.2 Pazopanib and TG100801: Two Eyedrop Kinase Inhibitors Drop Out of the Running

4.8.3 First Ophthalmic Complement Factor Inhibitor, AL-78898A, Misses Primary Endpoint

4.8.4 Factor C5: A More Promising Target Addressed by LFG316 (Novartis)

4.8.5 Integrins: Another Blockable Component of the Neovascularisation Cascade?

4.8.6 ALG-1001 (Allegro Ophthalmics): Novel Anti-Integrin Oligopeptide

4.8.7 Ocriplasmin (Thrombogenics): Can Pharmacologic Vitreolysis Help wAMD Patients?

4.8.8 Novel Anti-Angiogenic Treatments in Development

4.8.9 Zybrestat (Oxigene): New Mechanism of Action Offers Way to Disrupt Neovascularisation

4.8.10 Synthetic Biologies: Oligonucleotides and SiRNAs for wAMD

4.9 Regenerative Medicine Approaches

4.9.1 Allogeneic Stem Cells (Mesoblast): Potential Synergistic Treatment for Use Alongside

Lucentis

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Contents 4.9.2 AVA-101(Avalanche Biotechnologies): Ocular BioFactory for wAMD

4.9.3 RetinoStat (Oxford BioMedica): LentiVector Technology to Deliver Anti-Angiogenic Genes

4.4.5 Market Forecast for the OTC Segment, 2014-2024

5.1 Dry AMD Segment to Emerge in the Forecast Period

5.2 Who Will Achieve the Big Breakthrough in Dry AMD?

5.3 MC-1101 (MacuCLEAR): Leading the Pack?

5.3.1 Increasing Choroidal Blood Flow with Repurposed Product

5.3.2 Novel Endpoints in Phase 3 Study

5.3.3 Can MacuCLEAR Make It?

5.4 ACU-4429 (Acucela): Visual Cycle Modulator in Phase 3

5.4.1 Data Expected in July 2016

5.4.2 Other Visual Cycle Modulators

5.5 Lampalizumab (Roche): The Big News of ARVO 2013

5.5.1 MAHALO Study Indicates GA Progression Slowed by Lampa

5.5.2 High Hopes for Complement Inhibition in Dry AMD

5.5.3 AL-78898A (Alcon): Still Under Investigation in Dry AMD

5.5.4 Soliris (Alexion): Out of the Running?

5.6 Corticosteroids: Targeting Inflammation’s Role in Dry AMD Pathogenesis

5.6.1 Medidur Fluocinolone Acetonide (Alimera Sciences): Insert in Phase 2

5.6.2 AGN208397 (Allergan): New Potent Steroid Expected to Be Trialled in Dry AMD

5.7 Neuroprotection: One of Modern Medicine’s Holy Grails

5.7.1 Tandospirone (Alcon): No News On Serotonin 1A Agonist

5.7.2 NT501 (Neurotech): Some Promising Data in Dry AMD Studies

5.7.3 Brimonidine Tartrate (Allergan): Possible Efficacy with Longer Duration of Action

5.7.4 RN6G (Pfizer): Amyloid Beta-Binding MAb Still in Studies

5.7.5 VAR10200 (Varinel): A Preclinical Candidate to Watch

5.8 Regenerative Medicine: Dry AMD One of the Biggest Disease Targets

5. Dry AMD Segment, 2014-2024

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Contents 5.8.1 MA09-hRPE Cellular Therapy (Advanced Cell Technology): Signs of Efficacy in Landmark

ESC Human Trial

5.8.2 HuCNS-SC (StemCells): Leading Company in Neural Stem Cell Space

5.8.3 Stemedyne-RPE (Stemedica Cell Technologies): Low-Oxygen Cells for Dry AMD Repair

5.8.4 Biotime: Stem Cell leader with Dry AMD Interests

5.8.5 First iPSC Trial in Japan in Dry AMD Patients

5.8.6 Gene Therapies Less Prominent Than Stem Cells in Dry AMD

5.9 Other Treatments for Dry AMD

6.1 Segment to Grow in Importance as Diabetes Epidemic Continues

6.2 DR Options Grow with DME Addressed by New Agents

6.3 Lucentis: The Game Changer for DR?

6.3.1 New Anti-VEGF Additions

6.4 A New Hope? Optina (Ampio Pharmaceuticals)

6.4.1 Other Steroids in Development for DR

6.4.2 Iluvien (Alimera/pSivida): New Option in European Markets

6.4.3 Betamethasone Microsphere (Santen): Late-Stage Steroid Candidate

6.4.4 Ozurdex (Allergan): Under Investigation in Several Indications

6.4.5 SK-0503 (Sanwa Kagaku Kenkyusho): Potential DME and BRVO Treatment

6.4.6 Cortiject (Novagali Pharma): Prodrug Candidate

6.5 Other Products in Development for DR

6.5.1 Angiotensin Receptor Blockers/Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors: Some Off-Label

Validation

6.5.2 Vitreosolve (Innovations in Sight): Will a Phase 3 Trial Be Initiated?

6.5.3 Choline Fenofibrate (Abbott): No New Development for Promising Drug

6.5.4 iCo-007 Intravitreal Injection (iCo Therapeutics): Phase 2 Enrolment Completed June 2013

6.5.5 Darapladib (GlaxoSmithKline): Possible New Use for Atherosclerosis Drug

6.5.6 Bromfenac Ophthalmic Solution (ISTA Pharmaceuticals): New NSAID Option?

6. Diabetic Retinopathy Segment, 2014-2024

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Contents 6.5.7 Ocriplasmin: Possibilities in DME?

7.1 Which Markets Hold the Most Revenue Growth Potential?

7.2 The US: Leading Market for Retinal Diseases

7.3 Japan: Strong Market Potential

7.4 EU5: Ageing Populations to Drive Market Growth

7.5 BRIC Nations: The Biggest Growth Driver for the Market

8.1 Strengths: The Most Dynamic Area of the Ophthalmics Market

8.2 Weaknesses: Heavily Dependent on Anti-VEGF Approach

8.3 Opportunities: New Markets and R&D Synergies

8.4 Threats: Prevention and Management Better Than Drug Treatment for Dry AMD and DR?

8.5 Social: Low Diagnosis, Low Compliance

8.6 Technological: Innovation for the Eye

8.7 Economic: Off-Label Treatment and Reimbursement Issues

8.8 Political: The Demography and Diabetes Challenges

9.1 Interview with Dr Michael Stewart, Mayo Clinic

9.1.1 The Impact of Eylea, 2011-2012

9.1.2 The Comparative Dosing Schedules of Eylea and Lucentis

9.1.3 Patient Transitioning to Eylea: Salvage Switching

9.1.4 Avastin After the CATT Study

9.1.5 Prospects for Eylea in Other Indications and Combinations

9.1.6 Future Possibilities in Wet AMD Treatment

9.2 Interview with Philip G. Ralston, Jr., MacuCLEAR

9.2.1 MC-1101: Identifying and Treating Chiou Syndrome

9.2.2 Preventing Dry AMD Progression

7. Regional Market Breakdown, 2014-2024

8. Qualitative Analysis, 2014-2024

9. Research Interviews from Our Survey

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Contents 9.2.3 Treating the Root Cause of Dry AMD

9.2.4 Phase 3: Endpoints and Prospects for MC-1101

10.1 The Age of Lucentis: Nearing Its Conclusion?

10.2 Lucentis vs. Eylea vs. Avastin: The Three-Way Anti-VEGF Market

10.3 Indications Outside Wet AMD to Gain in Importance

10.4 Dry AMD Market Has Huge Potential

10.5 Fovista Most Prominent Among the Pipeline Candidates

10.6 Retinal Diseases to Continue to Be the Leading Area of Ophthalmics

10. Report Conclusions

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Contents

Table 1.1 Currency Exchange Rates

Table 2.1 AMD and Other Retinal Diseases Pharmaceutical Market: Revenues ($m), AGR (%),

CAGR (%), 2012-2017

Table 2.2 AMD and Other Retinal Diseases Pharmaceutical Market: Revenues ($m), AGR (%),

CAGR (%), 2018-2024

Table 2.3 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2012

Table 2.4 Market Breakdown by Disease Segment: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2012

Table 2.5 Types of CNV in Wet AMD, Description: Approximate Proportion of Cases (%), 2012

Table 2.6 Retinal Diseases Market Breakdown by Segment: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%),

Market Share (%), 2012-2017


Table 2.8 Retinal Diseases Market Breakdown by Segment: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%),

Market Share (%), 2018-2024


Table 3.1 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share

(%), 2012-2017


Table 3.3 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share

(%), 2018-2024


Table 3.5 Lucentis, Eylea and Avastin: Comparison of Characteristics

Table 3.6 Lucentis: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2012-2017

Table 3.7 Lucentis: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2018-2024

Table 3.8 Eylea: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2012-2017


Table 3.10 Avastin: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2012-2017

Table 3.11 Avastin: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2018-2024

List of Tables

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Contents Table 4.1 Wet AMD Segment: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2012-

2017

Table 4.2 Wet AMD Segment: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2018-

2024

Table 4.3 Selected R&D Pipeline for wAMD, 2013

Table 5.1 Dry AMD Segment: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2012-

2017

Table 5.2 Dry AMD Segment: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2018-

2024

Table 5.3 Selected R&D Pipeline for Dry AMD, 2013

Table 6.1 DR Segment: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2012-2017

Table 6.2 DR Segment: Revenues: ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2018-2024

Table 6.3 Selected R&D Pipeline for DR, 2013

Table 7.1 Regional Breakdown: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2012-

2017

Table 7.2 Regional Breakdown: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2018-

2024

Table 7.3 EU5 Breakdown: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2012-2017

Table 7.4 EU5 Breakdown: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%), 2018-2024

Table 7.5 BRIC Nations Breakdown: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%),

2012-2017

Table 7.6 BRIC Nations Breakdown: Revenues ($m), AGR (%), CAGR (%), Market Share (%),

2018-2024

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Contents

Figure 2.1 AMD and Other Retinal Diseases Pharmaceutical Market: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

Figure 2.2 Market Breakdown by Product Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2012

Figure 2.3 Market Breakdown by Company: Market Share (%), 2012

Figure 2.4 Leading Causes of Blindness Worldwide, Proportion of Total (%), 2010

Figure 2.5 Leading Causes of Visual Impairment (Inclusive of Blindness) Worldwide, Proportion

of Total (%), 2010

Figure 2.6 Global Over-60s Population (m), as Proportion of Total (%), 2012-2024

Figure 2.7 Market Breakdown by Disease Segment: Revenues ($m), 2012

Figure 2.8 Wet AMD Disease Segment: Market Share (%), 2012

Figure 2.9 Dry AMD Disease Segment: Market Share (%), 2012

Figure 2.10 DR Disease Segment: Market Share (%), 2012

Figure 2.11 Other Retinal Diseases Segment: Market Share (%), 2012

Figure 2.12 Market Breakdown by Disease Segment: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2017

Figure 2.13 Market Breakdown by Disease Segment: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2024

Figure 2.14 Retinal Diseases Market Breakdown by Segment: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

Figure 2.15 Retinal Diseases Market Breakdown by Segment: Revenues ($m), 2012, 2018 and

2024

Figure 3.1 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2017

Figure 3.2 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), Market Share (%), 2024

Figure 3.3 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

Figure 3.4 Market Breakdown by Product: Revenues ($m), 2012, 2018 and 2024

Figure 3.5 Drivers and Restraints for Lucentis, 2013

Figure 3.6 Lucentis: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

Figure 3.7 Drivers and Restraints for Eylea, 2013

Figure 3.8 Eylea: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

Figure 3.9 Drivers and Restraints for Avastin, 2013

Figure 3.10 Avastin: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

Figure 4.1 Wet AMD Segment: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

List of Figures

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Contents Figure 5.1 Dry AMD Segment: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

Figure 6.1 DR Segment: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

Figure 7.1 Regional Breakdown: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

Figure 7.2 Regional Breakdown: Revenues ($m), 2012, 2018 and 2024

Figure 7.3 US Market: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

Figure 7.4 Japan: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

Figure 7.5 EU5: Grouped Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

Figure 7.6 EU5 Breakdown: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

Figure 7.7 EU5 Breakdown: Revenues ($m), 2012, 2018 and 2024

Figure 7.8 BRIC Nations: Grouped Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

Figure 7.9 BRIC Nations Breakdown: Revenues ($m), 2012-2024

Figure 7.10 BRIC Nations Breakdown: Revenues ($m), 2012, 2018 and 2024

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Contents

Abbott Laboratories

Abbott Laboratories

Acucela

Adnexus

Advanced Cell Technologies

Alcon

Alexion

Alimera Sciences

Alkeus Pharmaceuticals

Allegro Ophthalmics

Allergan

American Academy of Ophthalmology

American Society of Retina Specialists

Amgen

Ampio Pharmaceuticals

Applied Genetic Technologies

Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology (ARVO)

AstraZeneca

Athenagen

Atlantis Pharma

ATON Pharma

Avalanche Biotechnologies

Bausch & Lomb

Bayer

Bayer Yakuhin (Bayer subsidiary)

Biogen Idec

Biotime

Biovail Corporation

Bristol-Myers Squibb

Organisations Mentioned in Report

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Contents Casey Eye Institute at Oregon Health and Science University

Cell Cure Neurosciences

Chengdu Kanghong Biotech

Colby Pharmaceutical

CoMentis

Eli Lilly

Emory University

ES Cell International

ESBATech

European Court of Justice

European Medicines Agency (EMEA/EMA)

EyeGate Pharmaceuticals

Eyetech

Food and Drug Administration (US FDA)

Formatech

ForSight Labs

ForSight VISION4

Fovea

Genaera

Gene Signal

Genentech

General Medical Council (GMC, UK)

GenVec

Genzyme

Geron

Gerot Lannach

GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)

Human Genome Sciences

iCo Therapeutics

Icon Bioscience

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Contents Innovations in Sight

Institut für Qualität und Wirtschaftlichkeit im Gesundheitswesen (IQWiG, Germany)

International Diabetes Foundation

Institute of Ocular Pharmacology

ISTA Pharmaceuticals

Jerini

Kaplan Medical Center

Lpath

Ludwig-Maximilians - University of Munich

MacuCLEAR

MacuSight

Mayo Clinic

MedImmune

Merck & Co.

Mesoblast

Molecular Partners

MorphoSys

Mystic Pharmaceuticals

National Eye Institute (NEI, US)

National Health Service (NHS, UK)

National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE, UK)

Natur Produk

Neuron Systems

Neurotech

Novagali Pharma

Novartis

Novo Nordisk

Numoda Capital Innovations

Oakwood Laboratories

OcuSciences

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Contents Ohr Pharmaceutical

Oklahoma Medical Research Foundation

Ophthotech Corporation

Ora Bio

OraPharma

Österreichische Agentur für Gesundheit und Ernährungssicherheit (AGES, Austria)

Othera Pharmaceuticals

Otsuka Pharmaceutical

Oxford BioMedica

Oxigene

Paloma Pharmaceuticals

Palomid Pharmaceuticals

PanOptica

PDL BioPharma

Pedinol Pharmacal

Pele Nova Biotecnologica

Pfizer

Pieris

Potentia Pharmaceuticals

Probiotica Laboratorios

pSivida

Purdue University

QLT

Quark

Regeneron

Retina Macula Institute

RetroSense Therapeutics

ReVision Therapeutics

Roche

Sanofi

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Contents Santen Pharmaceuticals

Sanwa Kagaku Kenkyusho

SARcode Bioscience

Senju Pharmaceutical

Shire

Singapore Eye Research Institute

Singapore National Eye Centre

Sirion Therapeutics

StemCells

Stemedica Cell Technologies

Swissmedic

Symphony ViDA

Takeda

TargeGen

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

ThromboGenics

UCB

University of Kentucky College of Medicine

University of Kyoto

Valeant Pharma

Varinel

Vitreoretinal Technologies

World Health Organization (WHO)

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Macular Degeneration (AMD) and Other Retinal Diseases: World Drug Market 2014-2024

to prescribe it at the original asking price. In June 2013, the UK’s NICE declined to recommend

Zaltrap, also reportedly citing its high cost.

3.3.5 How Far Can Eylea’s Momentum Carry It? See Figure 3.7 for a summary of drivers and restraints for Eylea. The drug has exceeded

expectations to date, capturing a large share of the wAMD patient population, rather than merely

becoming a salvage/second-line option (as may have been expected for a drug with similar

mechanism of action and similar efficacy to the existing standard of care). Eylea’s slightly lower

cost and superior label dosing schedule, combined with the apparent ill-will generated by some

attempts to protect Lucentis. The relative goodwill of physicians towards the Regeneron product

may seem subjective, but visiongain has been informed off the record that this was a strong initial

driver for Eylea’s uptake. Eylea’s longer-term growth prospects face the ongoing restraint of

Lucentis getting to other retinal disease indications first; and the constant presence of Avastin as a

lower-cost off-label option. Eylea’s strong performance against Lucentis in wAMD suggests it has

potential to become standard of care in the other retinal disease indications too.

3.3.6 Eylea Revenue Forecast 2014-2024 Visiongain believes that given the scale of Eylea’s incursion into the wAMD space there is at

present no obvious reason that it should not capture the broader retinal disease market from

Lucentis. If Eylea achieves the same patient share in RVO, DME and CNV secondary to

pathological myopia, it will be a multiple blockbuster product by the end of the forecast period.

Figure 3.7 Drivers and Restraints for Eylea, 2013

Drivers

Restraints

Relative to Lucentis, Eylea is reportedly slightly cheaper, shows slightly superior VEGF-binding,

and has a preferable dosing schedule

Rapid expansion shows physicians are willing to switch patients to Eylea, which may also profit

from any ill-will to Lucentis

Expansion opportunities in new markets and indications

As with Lucentis, Avastin apparently represents a lower-cost alternative to Eylea

Has no clear-cut clinical superiority to support its use instead of Lucentis or Avastin where these

options are more convenient

Will cede first-to-market advantage to Lucentis in retinal disease indications

Source: visiongain 2013

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Macular Degeneration (AMD) and Other Retinal Diseases: World Drug Market 2014-2024

Visiongain anticipates 2013 revenues of $1292m for Eylea, rising to $2079m in 2014 with DME

added to the product’s label. Between 2012 and 2017 Eylea will achieve a CAGR of 28%,

visiongain believes, with revenues rising to $2891m by the end of that year (Table 3.8). By this

point, Eylea will have captured around 29% of the overall retinal diseases market, which visiongain

believes is likely to be its high-water-mark as new products and combinations capture market

share.

Visiongain predicts that by 2018 Eylea will have exhausted the main avenues for easily expanding

its patient base, and will record more gradual growth in the second half of the forecast period in

competition with Lucentis and newer approvals. Between 2018 and 2024, visiongain anticipates a

CAGR of 6% (15% for the 12-year forecast period overall), with Eylea achieving 2024 revenues of

$4475m, and overtaking Lucentis in 2022. By the close of the forecast period, Eylea will hold 27%

of the overall market (with Lucentis on 20%). See Table 3.9 and Figure 3.8.





2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Revenues ($m) 838 1292 2079 2356 2612 2891

AGR (%) 54 61 13 11 11

CAGR (%, 2012-2017) 28

Market share (%) 16 22 29 29 29 29

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Revenues ($m) 3156 3417 3617 3852 4077 4261 4475

AGR (%) 9 8 6 6 6 5 5

CAGR (%, 2018-2024) 6

CAGR (%, 2012-2024) 15

Market share (%) 29 28 28 28 28 27 27

Macular Degeneration AMD and other Retinal Diseases 2014 2024

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Transcript of Macular Degeneration AMD and other Retinal Diseases 2014 2024