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JULY 10, 2014

MACRO-ECONOMIC REVIEW: BANGLADESH

Government targets the GDP growth of 7.3% in the FY 2014-15, while GDP growth was 6.12% in the

outgoing fiscal

Exports showed resilience in tune with the growing Garments sector; marking 12.56% rise during July-

May 2013-14 despite industrial disasters like the Rana Plaza building collapse

Import growth started picking up, registered 18.08% in July-April 2013-14. Imports of capital machinery

and food grain (rice & wheat) are on the rise

Foreign exchange reserve crossed US$ 21 billion mark; high enough to settle import bills for more than

six months

Local currency against the US Dollar remained stable at BDT 77-78

Remittances registered negative growth for the 1st

time in 13 years, recorded -3.55% during the 11

month of FY 2013-14, due to a shrinking outflow of migrant workers and falling receipts from Middle

Eastern nations

Inflation ticks a bit higher, 7.48% in May from 7.46% in April

Bank borrowing by the government in June stood at BDT 254.14 billion against the revised target of BDT

299.82 billion

Private sector credit growth rises to 11.9% in April 2014 which was 10.7% in February 2014; whereas

the target was 16.5%

Call money rate remained stable for quite a long time at around 7%

Foreign Direct Investment reached US$ 1.7 billion, which was US$ 1.2 billion last year

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Bangladesh is in growth trajectory. Over a quite a long time, the country consistently achieved more than 6% GDP

growth except few exceptional years. This high growth rate is mainly propelled by buoyant export, robust remittance

inflow, growing industrialization & rising private sector etc.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Considering FY 2005-06 as a base, BBS (Bangladesh

Bureau of Statistics) estimates the GDP growth rate of

the out-going fiscal as 6.12%, whereas the international

donor agencies, World Bank (WB), Asian Development

Bank (ADB) and International Monetary fund (IMF)

estimates it to be 5.4%, 5.6% and 5.5%.

For the up-coming fiscal, FY 2014-15, Government

targets the GDP growth as 7.3%, which was 7.2% in the

previous year. The international lending agencies

reported lower projection than the Government. The

Washington-based lender, WB forecasts Bangladesh's

gross domestic product (GDP) will stand at 5.9% for

fiscal year 2014-15. The ADB expects the growth to rebound to 6.2% in FY 2015, aided by higher remittance and export

growth, as well as by prospects for continued economic recovery in the US and the euro zone.

Contribution of Sectors to GDP: Production Based GDP

The estimation of production based GDP comprises 15 sectors. All the 15 sectors are grouped into three broad sectors

viz- agriculture, industry and service. The broad agriculture sector includes two sectors (i) agriculture and forestry and (ii)

fishing. The broad industry sector comprises (i) mining and quarrying, (ii) manufacturing, (iii) electricity, gas and water

supply and (iv) construction sector. The broad service sector consists of the collective outputs of the, (i) wholesale and

retail trade, (ii) hotels and restaurants, (iii) transport, storage and communication, (iv) financial intermediations, (v) real

estate renting and business activities, (vi) public administration and defense, (vii) education, (viii) health and social work

and (ix) community, social and personal services.

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS); *Provisional

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS); *Provisional

The positive trend of the industrial sector continued to increase its portion over the other two sectors. The share of the

industrial sector to the country’s GDP registered an increment of 2.10% and contributed 29.61% of the total GDP (Figure

02). On the other hand, contributions of both the agriculture and service sectors to last fiscal years’ GDP declined by

2.68% and 0.31% than the previous fiscal and secured 16.33% and 54.05% of the total GDP respectively. According to the

data, industrial growth in the last fiscal year shrunk to 8.39% from the previous rate of 9.64% while both agricultural

sector and service sector swelled to 3.35% and 5.83% from the previous year’s rate of 2.45% and 5.51% respectively

(Figure 03).

5.5% 3.4%

9.8% 8.4%

6.6%

5.8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Figure 02: Broad Sectoral Growth

AgricultureIndustryService

33% 31% 29% 26% 25% 19% 18% 17% 17% 16%

17% 19% 21% 25% 26% 25% 27% 28% 29% 30%

50% 50% 50% 49% 49% 56% 55% 55% 54% 54%

Figure 03: Sectoral Contribution in GDP

Agriculture Industry Service

Source: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS)

5.3

%

4.4

% 5

.3%

6.3

%

6.0

% 6.6

%

6.4

%

6.2

%

5.7

%

6.1

% 6.7

%

6.2

%

6.0

%

6.1

%

7.3

%

Figure 01: GDP Growth Rate

Last 5-yr CAGR of GDP: 6.2%

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GDP Per Capita

Among other reasons behind the high rate of growth in

GDP per capita, buoyant remittance inflow and bumper

rice production contributed significantly in achieving the

per capita GDP of US$ 1,115 (Table 01). As per the

country’s leading economists, for being the middle-

income country by 2021, Bangladesh would require GDP

growth of 7.5% to 8% per year based on accelerated

export and remittance growth. Both public and private

investment will need to increase as well.

Export

The export sectors are on the growth trajectory. The

overall export earnings stood at US$27.37 billion, with a

growth of 12.56%, during the July-May period of FY

2013-14. The Industry insiders expect that, the overall

export earnings would stand at US$30.62 billion in the

current fiscal in which export earnings from the apparel

products would reach US$24.75 billion. In tune with the

uptrend, the government set the country's total export

target at US$34.20 billion with an average 10.74%

growth for the upcoming FY 2014-15.

Bangladesh exports about 168 different products and

services to almost 186 countries. The main exportables

are Readymade Garments, Knitwear, Home Textile,

Frozen Food, Leather & Leather goods, Jute and Jute

goods which contribute near about 87% of total export

(Figure 05). On the other hand, the main export

destinations of Bangladesh are USA, Canada, EU

Countries including Germany, U.K, France, Italy etc.

contributing almost 83% of total export (Table 02). USA

is the single largest export destination of Bangladesh

and Bangladesh is the sixth largest textiles and apparel

sourcing country for the USA.

The government is providing many incentives to

stimulate the Export:

The government increased the cash incentive for export of readymade garments to 5.25% from the existing 5%. Moreover, to encourage exporting new products and exploring new destinations (excluding United States, Canada and the countries of European Union), the cash incentive for the exporters has been increased to 3% from the existing 2%. Hence, an exporter will get maximum 11% cash incentive against exported products if he or she avails the cash incentive in existing three

Table 01: Per Capita GDP & GNI (In US$)

Per Capita GDP (US$)

Per Capita GNI (US$)

Population (In

ICrore)

2005-06 514 543 13.98

2006-07 562 598 14.18

2007-08 637 686 14.38

2008-09 703 759 14.58

2009-10 780 843 14.78

2010-11 860 928 14.97

2011-12 880 955 15.16

2012-13 976 1054 15.37

2013-14* 1115 1190 15.58

Source: BBS; *Provisional

Source: Bangladesh Bank; *figure of Jul-May FY2014

Source: Bangladesh bank

Table 02: Export Destinations

Country 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013

U.S.A. 19% 17% 16%

Germany 13% 14% 13%

U.K. 8% 9% 9%

France 6% 6% 5%

Spain 3% 4% 4%

Canada 3% 3% 4%

Italy 3% 4% 3%

India 2% 2% 2%

Netherlands 5% 3% 2%

Belgium 2% 2% 2%

Turkey 3% 2% 2%

Other Countries 17% 19% 22%

Export of EPZ 14% 15% 16%

Total 100% 100% 100%

Source: Bangladesh bank

6.5

6.0

6.5

7.6

8.7

10

.5

12

.2

14

.1

15

.6

16

.2

22.9

24.3

27.0

27.4

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-10

10

30

50Figure 04: Export & Export Growth

Export Earnings (US$…Export Growth %

Woven garments 41.24%

Knitwear 39.76%

Frozen Foods 2.17%

Jute Goods 2.35% Others

14.48%

Figure 05: Category wise Export, Jul-Apr 2013-14

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sectors which are traditional cash incentive, additional incentive and incentive for market expansion. [The benefit will be effective for the shipment of export items of the RMG sector between January 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015.]

In the budget 2014-15, the government has also halved the import duty on textile raw materials like flex fibre to 5% from the current 10%, reduced the tax at source on cash incentive to 3% from the current 5%, reduced tax at source to 0.30% from existing 0.80%. For all other exports, the tax deduction rate at source has been reduced from 0.80% to 0.60% to provide a more competitive edge to the export sector.

Import of three types of fire safety equipment, i.e., fire resistant door, sprinkler system and equipment, and emergency light with exit sign and double heads, has been declared duty-free to ensure internal security and compliance of standards by the RMG sector.

NBR also allowed the members of BGMEA and Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BKMEA) for duty-free import of materials for pre-fabricated buildings, including hot-rolled iron or steel plate, flat-rolled product of iron or non-alloy steel, I sections, H sections, self-tapping screw, bolts, and aluminum insulation only for once.

These stimuli is expected to act as a catalyst to drive the country’s exports to rise further and also it would help improve

export competitiveness of the country’s readymade garment products in the global market.

Import

Aggregate import payments of Bangladesh through July-April 2013-14 rose at US$ 33.28 billion compared to US$ 28.18

billion for the corresponding period of the previous year stating a 18.08% growth (Figure 06). Food grain imports have

accelerated by 56% in the first 10 months of this fiscal year from that of the previous year with private importers taking

advantage of declining prices in the global market. Import L/C opening of capital machinery increased by 31% though

industrial raw materials remained flat (Table 03). During July-April 2013-14, new opening of LCs soared higher by 11.65%

and reached at US$ 33.41 billion against US$ 29.93 billion in the same period of the preceding year. In 2012-13, major

portion of total import payments of Bangladesh were made to China (21.7%), India (16.3%), Malaysia (5.1%), Korea

(4.5%), Japan (4.1%), Singapore (3.7%), Indonesia (3.6%) Brazil (2.8%), Taiwan (2.5%) etc.

Table 03: Fresh Import L/C Opening, Jul-Mar, 2013-14

L/C Opening (US$ bn)

Growth over Jul-Mar 2012-13

Sectoral Distribution

Consumer goods 3.35 25.6% 11.3%

Intermediate goods 2.44 2.8% 8.2%

Industrial raw materials 11.14

4.2% 37.5%

Capital machinery 2.77 31.2% 9.3%

Machinery for misc.

industry

2.86 16.7% 9.6%

Petroleum & petro.

Products

3.72 20.8% 12.5%

Others 3.41 4.4% 11.5%

Total 29.69

11.5% 100.0%

Source: Bangladesh Bank; *figure of Jul-Apr 2013-14 Source: Bangladesh Bank

Remittance

Remittance emerged as a significant contributor in

keeping the country in the high growth trajectory. During

July-May 2013-14, Bangladesh received nearly US$12.93

billion in remittance (Figure 07). According to a World

Bank’s latest issue of the Migration and Development

Brief, Bangladesh received around US$14 billion last year

becoming the third largest recipient of remittances in

South Asia, after India and Pakistan. Source: Bangladesh Bank; *figure of Jul-Apr 2013-14

9.3

8.5

9.7

10.9

13.1

14.7

17.2

21.6

22.5

23

.7

33.7

35.5

34.1

33.3

-10%

10%

30%

50%

-10

0

10

20

30

40Figure 06: Import & Import Growth

Import (US$ bn)

Import Growth

1.9 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.8 4.8 6.0

7.9 9.7

11.0 11.7 12.8

14.5 12.9

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

-4

1

6

11

16Figure 07: Remittance Inflow

Remittance (in US$ bn) Remittance Growth

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Bangladesh also ranked 8th among the top 10 remittance recipient countries in the world, while neighboring India has

secured the top position in it with US$70 billion in remittances.

Of the remittance received, two-third comes through the private commercial banks, around 31% comes through state-

owned commercial banks, and the rest comes through foreign commercial banks and specialized banks.

Source: Bangladesh Bank

Source: Bangladesh Bank; * upto April

Foreign Exchange Reserve

The foreign currency reserves have crossed US$21bn

mark for the first time in June 2014 (Figure 12). The

purchase of US dollars by the central bank to stabilize

the exchange rate from the market, stimulus to

exporters including expansion of the export

development fund and appreciation of the local

currency against dollar are contributing to the

phenomenal rise in the forex reserves.

As per the international standards, a country should

have enough foreign exchange reserve to clear import

bills for three months. Bangladesh will be able to meet import bills for more than six months by using the US$21 billion

foreign exchange reserve.

The international reserve is second largest among SAARC countries after India. The high level of reserve helps

Bangladesh’s sovereign rating needed to catalyze higher foreign direct investment. The remittance inflow and the

reserve would increase further ahead of Eid-ul-Fitr when expatriate Bangladeshis usually send home more money.

Foreign Exchange Rate

Since May 2013, BDT/USD remained stable at 77.75 level (Figure 11). The exchange rate had such a long stable run

because the central bank kept buying the greenback to maintain the ‘positive’ inflow of remittance and export earnings.

BB purchased nearly $9 billion from banks between July 1, 2012 and May 7, 2014, and did not sell any dollar to banks

during the period.

0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

1.6% 2.0% 2.5%

3.4% 3.6%

4.2% 6.9% 6.9%

8.2% 12.8%

19.6% 26.5%

LibyaAustralia

South KoreaItaly

QatarBahrain

SingaporeOther…Oman

U.K.Malaysia

KuwaitU.S.A.U.A.E.Saudi…

Fifure 08: Countrywise Remittance, 2012-13

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Figure 09: No. of Persons left for abroad on Employment

Source: Bangladesh Bank

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jul-

12

Sep

-12

No

v-12

Jan

-13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-

13

Sep

-13

No

v-13

Jan

-14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Figure 10: Foreign Exchange Reserve (US$ bn)

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Source: Bangladesh Bank

Source: Bangladesh Bank

The dollar price had risen to Tk 84.45 on January 29, 2012. From January 29, 2012 to May 30, 2013, the price of dollar

against the taka continuously had declined (Figure 12). After the BB had bought a huge amount of dollar last fiscal year,

the taka remained stable at around 77.75 a dollar between May, 2013 and February 2014. BB purchased $3.63 billion

from the local banks from July 1 to March 19 of this financial year in bid to tackle the dollar deprecation against the taka.

Following the fresh dollar purchase this fiscal year, the country’s foreign exchange reserve rose to a record $19-billion

mark on February 19 for the first time.

Inflation

Inflation slightly increased to 7.48% in May, which was

7.46% in April (Figure 13). The government's inflation

target for fiscal 2013-14 is 7%. The central bank recently

raised the cash reserve requirement (CRR) by 50 basis

points to 6.50% for the commercial banks. The move

may reduce the inflationary pressure on the economy

by way of withdrawing excess liquidity from the market.

In May, the food inflation accelerated to 9.09% from

8.95% in previous month while non-food inflation

slightly fell to 5.16% from 5.23%. In rural area, inflation also marginally rose to 7.27% in May from 7.19% in April and in

urban areas, it stood at 7.92% from 7.96%. The inflation target for fiscal 2014-15 is set at 6%.

Private Sector Credit Growth

The country’s credit growth rate in the private sector

increased slightly in April from the previous month but

it is still low in accordance with the central bank target

of 16.50%. The year-on-year credit growth rate in the

private sector stood at 11.86% in April compared with

that of 10.46% in March (Figure 14). Under the

monetary policy for July-December, the central bank

had set 15.5% credit growth target for the private

sector by December 2013 and 16.50% by June 2014.

58.9 61.4

67.2 69.1 68.6 68.8 69.2

71.2

81.9

77.8

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

20

03

-04

20

04

-05

20

05

-06

20

06

-07

20

07

-08

20

08

-09

20

09

-10

20

10

-11

20

11

-12

20

12

-13

Figure 11: Yearwise BDT/US$ (Period Avg.)

81.48

77.66

757677787980818283

Figure 12: Monthwise BDT/US$ (Period Avg.)

Source: Bangladesh Bank

Source: Bangladesh Bank

7.5%

9.0%

5.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%Figure 13: Point to Point Inflation

(Base: 2005-06)

General Food Non-Food

19.9

16.6

10.8

11.9

Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12

Jan-13 Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13

Jan-14 Mar-14

Figure 14: Private Sector Credit Growth (in %)

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The credit demand has declined drastically from the private sector that is still passing a stagnant situation mainly due to

the persisting political uncertainty, the poor state of infrastructure and the non-availability of industrial gas connections

and fragile banking sector etc. With the prevailing high interest rates hovering between 14-15%, private sector

borrowers seem hesitant to take loan that resulted to the no sign of improvement in investment climate after polls. In

addition to this, tightening the loan sanctioning procedure by most of the banks in the face of numerous banking scams

last year could be another reason for the shrinking growth rate.

Government’s borrowing from the Banking system

Bangladesh government has to greatly depend on borrowing from the country’s banking sector to meet the budget

deficit, which is 5% of GDP.

Government’s bank borrowing was up in last June as

the pace of development works to finish the annual

development programme picks up in the closing month

of the fiscal year. Till June 19, 2014, Govt.’s bank

borrowing stood at BDT 254.14 billion against the

revised target of BDT 299.82 billion. However, since the

banks have excess liquidity, this borrowing is unlikely to

affect the money market much. On May 1, the banks'

excess liquidity stood at BDT 1022.23 billion. In the FY

2014-15, Government plans to borrow BDT 312. 21

billion from the banking sector to meet the budget deficit. Nonetheless, Bangladesh may face problem to get the sixth

tranche of Extended Credit Facility (ECF) of International Monetary Fund, as govt. exceeded the limit of bank borrowing

of BDT 240 billion until June 30, 2014 set by IMF for availing the loan.

Interest Rate Spread of Banks

The weighted average spread between lending and

deposit rates offered by the commercial banks rose to

5.15% in March last from 5.06% in the previous month

(Figure 17).

The weighted average rate on lending stood at 13.36%,

while the average interest rate on deposits in the same

month was at 8.21%. The interest rate which is offered

by banks against fixed deposits has come down as the

banks are reluctant to mobilize more funds due to the

lack of credit demand in the wake of the ongoing

sluggish investment scenario. Though there is low

demand for credit and also significant amount of excess

liquidity in the banking system, interest spread has continued to remain high at 5.1%.

Source: Bangladesh Bank; P=Provisional (upto June 7); B=Budgeted

Source: Bangladesh Bank

252.1

271.9 274.6

254.1

312.2

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 P 2014-15 B

Figure 16: Government Borrowing from Banks (in BDT billion)

5.4

7 5.5

6

5.5

3

5.42

5.4

1

5.33

5.13

5.05

5.06

4.99

4.98

5.13

5.02

5.01

5.01

4.95

4.9

7

5.06

4.99

5.06

5.15

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

5

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.6

5.7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

Figure 17: Interest Rate & Spread (in %)

Spread Deposits Advances

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Non-Performing Loan (NPL)

Political unrest, frequent blockades and shutdowns,

subdued business atmosphere, stagnant economic

activities, a series of scams in the financial sector etc.

has thrown the banking system in jeopardy. Besides,

stagnancy in the share market, over dependency on the

court for recovering loan kept the level of NPL more

than 10% (Figure 17).

The BB on December 23 last year relaxed rescheduling

policy for six months for all kinds of loans of the

businesses who had suffered losses due to the political

unrest. But this step could not stir up the condition of the banking sector. This special facility provided by the Bangladesh

Bank is not likely to be extended further in the new fiscal year. This withdrawal probably will increase the NPL level again

leaving a negative effect in the activities of trade and commerce.

Liquidity Condition & Call Money Rate

The overall excess liquidity with the commercial banks

stood at Tk 1022.23 billion, as on May 1 last, mainly due

to lower credit demand from the private sector. Central

bank’s recent move of raising the cash reserve

requirement (CRR) by 50 basis points to 6.50% for the

commercial banks will withdraw excess liquidity from

the market. The latest policy intervention is expected to

mop up over BDT 32 billion in excess liquidity from the

market. Lower demand and excess supply of liquidity in

the money market kept the call money rate stable for

quite a long time (Figure 18).

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Inflows of foreign direct investment in Bangladesh rose 44.8% in 2012-13 to $1.7 bn compared to previous year which was $1.2 bn in 2011-12 (Table 04). The World Investment Report of the UNCTAD shows Bangladesh is positioned as a second preferred investment destination in South Asia after India, which got $28 bn or 78% of the total FDI inflows into the region in 2013. In 2012-13, the telecommunications sector received the highest $525 mn in FDI. Of the $1.7 bn FDI that Bangladesh received in 2012-13, $761 mn came as equity capital (direct investment in Bangladesh), $324 mn as intra-company loans (debt transactions between parent enterprises and affiliates) and $645 mn were reinvested earnings (investors' share of profits not distributed as profits).

Bangladesh aspires to be a middle income country within 2021. The country is relentlessly working towards its desired destination. The Government has taken a series of positive measures in recent years to address the challenge of infrastructural deficiency.

Source: Bangladesh Bank

Source: Bangladesh Bank

Table 04: Sector wise FDI inflows (in mn US$)

Sectors FY-

2010 FY-

2011 FY-

2012 FY-

2013 Total

Telecommunication 446 52 179 525 1,202

Textiles & Weaving 158 225 241 412 1,037

Trade & commerce 129 235 273 295 931

Others 18 52 26 97 193

Power, gas & petroleum 74 127 245 94 539

Services 20 20 33 65 138

Food Products 22 17 36 62 137

Cement 13 4 60 32 108

Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals 8 9 14 30 62

Agriculture & fishing 11 12 50 30 102

Leather & Leather Products 9 13 8 28 58

Fertilizer 4 5 17 19 44

Vehicle & Transport Equipment

1 0 2 18 20

Metal & Machinery Products 2 5 12 14 33

Construction 0 0 1 7 8

Mining & quarrying 0 0 0 0 0

Total 913 777 1,195 1,729 4,613 Source: Bangladesh Bank

9.2%

7.3% 6.1%

10.0%

11.9% 11.9% 12.8%

8.9% 10.5%

Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14

Figure 17: Classified Loan (% share to total outstanding)

15.02%

7.35%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jan

-12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-

12

Sep

-12

No

v-12

Jan

-13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-

13

Sep

-13

No

v-13

Jan

-14

Mar

-14

Figure 18: Weighted Average Call Money Rate