Acute Radiation Risks and Countermeasures for Space Radiation Francis A. Cucinotta
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta Example Solar Proton Event Data NASA JSC August 30, 2006.
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Transcript of M. Kim and F. Cucinotta Example Solar Proton Event Data NASA JSC August 30, 2006.
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Example Solar Proton Event Data
NASA JSC
August 30, 2006
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Times of Occurrence of Large SPE’s
GCR Deceleration Potential
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
F, M
V
+ + + +- - -
1/1/1950 1/1/1960 1/1/1970 1/1/1980 1/1/1990 1/1/2000 1/1/2010 1/1/2020
F(>
30
Me
V),
Pro
ton
s/cm
2
108
109
1010F>108 solar protonevents only
Modern Era (1956-2005)Recent Era (1550-2000)
McKracken et al.
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Year
Su
ns
po
t n
um
be
r
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
<n(
t)>
, Ev
en
ts/y
ea
r
Population distribution level, percent90
70
50
30
10
Measured sunspot number
Smoothed sunspot number
Projected smoothedsunspot number at level, percent
807570
Cycle 23 Cycle 24
<n(t)> :F
30>=105
F30>=106
Projections of Cycles and Mean Occurrence Frequency of SPE
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Cycle Onset Time F30, protons/cm2 Time to Peak Flux, hr Comment
19 11/12/1960 9.00 x 109 14 (a), note 1
20 8/2/1972 5.00 x 109 69 (a)
22 10/19/1989 13:05 4.23 x 109 26.9 (b)
23 7/14/2000 10:45 3.74 x 109 25.8 (b)
23 10/26/2003 18:25 3.25 x 109 4.2 (b), note 2
23 11/4/2001 17:05 2.92 x 109 33.2 (b)
19 7/10/1959 2.30 x 109 note 3 (a)
23 11/8/2000 23:50 2.27 x 109 16.1 (b)
22 3/23/1991 8:20 1.74 x 109 19.5 (b)
22 8/12/1989 16:00 1.51 x 109 15.2 (b)
22 9/29/1989 12:05 1.35 x 109 14.1 (b)
23 1/16/2005 2:10 1.04 x 109 39.7 (b)
19 2/23/1956 1.00 x 109 note 4 (a)
Large Solar Proton Events during Solar Cycles 19-23 with F30 > 109 protons/cm2
(a) F30 for solar cycle 19-21: data taken from Shea and Smart.(b) F30 for solar cycle 22 and 23: calculated using corrected 5-min average proton flux of GOES measurements.Note 1: There are large differences in the estimate of fluence in November 1960 SPE.
Data given by others are significantly smaller than this value (1.3 x 109 protons/cm2 by Freier and Webber).Note 2: F30 for the combined 3 major peaks occurred during 10/26-11/6/2003: 3.42 x 109 protons/cm2.Note 3: one day later on July 11, 1959 Note 4: in the same day on February 23, 1956
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Proton Integral FluxAugust 2-11, 1972 SPE
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
0 50 100 150 200 250
Time, h
Flu
x,
Pro
ton
s/c
m2-s
E > 10 MeV
E > 30 MeV
E > 60 MeV
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
BFO Dose RateAugust 2-11, 1972 SPE
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
0 40 80 120 160 200 240
Time, hr
Do
se R
ate,
cG
y-E
q/h
AL(0)
AL(1)
AL(3)
AL(5)
AL(10)
AL(15)
AL(20)
AL(30)
1 cGy/h
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
0 40 80 120 160 200 240
Time, h
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Do
se
Eq
uiv
ale
nt,
cS
v Current 30-day limit
Al thickness, g/cm2:0135
10152030
BFO Cumulative DoseAugust 2-11, 1972 SPE
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
82 BFO Locations
● 32 location set● 50 location set
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
August 1972 SPE (1 g/cm2 Al shield)
BFO Location
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
BF
O D
ose
Eq,
cG
y-E
q
0
100
200
300
400
500
Marrow location, jHead and NeckUpper TorsoMiddle TorsoThighsAverage
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Hourly-Averaged Proton Integral Flux during Oct 26 - Nov 6, 2003 SPE
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Time, h
Flu
x, p
roto
ns
/cm
2 -s
E ≥ 30 MeVE ≥ 60 MeVE ≥ 100 MeV
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
0.000001
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Time, h
Do
se
Ra
te, c
Sv
/h
1 rem/h
Al thickness,
g/cm2:
0135
10152030
BFO Dose Rate during Oct 26 - Nov 6, 2003 SPE
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Time, h
Flu
x,
pro
ton
s/c
m2-s
E ≥ 30 MeVE ≥ 60 MeVE ≥ 100 MeV
Hourly-Averaged Proton Integral FluxOct 26 - Nov 6, 2003 SPE
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
0.000001
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Time, h
Do
se
Ra
te, c
Gy
-Eq
/h
1 cGy/h
Al thickness,
g/cm2:
0135
10152030
BFO Dose RateOctober 26- November 6, 2003 SPE
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
BFO Cumulative DoseOctober 26- November 6, 2003 SPE
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Time, h
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Do
se
Eq
uiv
ale
nt,
cS
v
AL(0)
AL(1)
AL(3)
AL(5)
AL(10)
AL(15)
AL(20)
AL(30)
Current 30-day limit
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Time, h
Flu
x,
pro
ton
s/c
m2-s
E ≥ 10 MeVE ≥ 30 MeVE ≥ 60 MeVE > 100 MeV
Hourly-Averaged Proton Integral FluxJanuary 16-22, 2005 SPE
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
BFO Dose RateJanuary 16-22, 2005 SPE
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Time, h
Do
se
Ra
te,
cG
y-E
q/h
1 cGy/h
Al thickness, g/cm2
0 1 3 5
10 15 20 30
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+01
1.E+02
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Time, h
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Do
se
Eq
uiv
ale
nt,
cS
v
AL(0)
AL(1)
AL(3)
AL(5)
AL(10)
AL(15)
AL(20)
AL(30)
Current 30-day limit
BFO Cumulative DoseJanuary 16-22, 2005 SPE
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
216 Particle Events (1976-2005)
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
1.5 3
4.5 6
7.5 9
10
.5 12
13
.5 15
16
.5 18
19
.5 21
22
.5 24
25
.5 27
28
.5 30
31
.5 33
34
.5 36
37
.5 39
40
.5 42
43
.5 45
46
.5
Time to Max Proton Flux, hr
Fre
qu
en
cy
.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
Frequency
Cumulative %
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Large SPE Integral Fluence Spectra at 1AU
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Big SPEs (Cycles 22-23)
1.00E-08
1.00E-06
1.00E-04
1.00E-02
1.00E+00
1.00E+02
1.00E+04
1.00E+06
1.00E+08
1.00E+10
1.00E+12
1 10 100 1000
E, MeV/amu
F (
>E
), c
m-2
10/19/1989 SPE
7/14/2000 SPE
9/29/1989 SPE
11/8/2000 SPE
10/26/2003 SPE
11/4/2001 SPE
1/16/2005 SPE
8/12/1989 SPE
10/30/1992 SPE
6/4/1991 SPE
9/24/2001 SPE
11/6/1997 SPE
6/14/1991 SPE
3/23/1991 SPE
4/21/2002 SPE
11/2/2003 SPE
11/22/2001 SPE
4/20/1998 SPE
11/30/1989 SPE
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
The Average BFO Doses of the Regions at 6 DLOCs from 1972 SPE
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
DLOC1 DLOC2 DLOC3 DLOC4 DLOC5 DLOC6
BF
O D
os
e,
cG
y-E
q Head & Neck
Chest
Abdomen
Pelvis
Thighs
Lower Legs
Arms
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Was Carrington Event (1859) Lethal?1859 event has largest F>30 Flux known
Proton Fluence >30 MeV per cm2
108 109 1010
% P
roba
bilit
y in
2-W
eek
Mis
sion
s
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
Blood Forming Organ Dose, cGy-Eq1 10 100
30-d
ay D
ose
L
imit
Vio
lati
on
5% P
rod
rom
al
Sic
knes
s Mission disruption-days lost?
Increased fatal cancer risk
and other late effects
Modern data(1956-2005)
Arctic ice-core data
5% A
cute
Let
hal
ity
Un
ifo
rm D
ose
Single Mission
3 missions/year for5-yr Program
Conditions underApollo Spacecraft -type shielding
Ice-Core data-F>30MeV flux from1450-1990
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
SPE Probability in 1-Week Missionand
BFO Exposure Level inside a Typical Equipment Room in Free Space
1.E-05
1.E-04
1.E-03
1.E-02
1.E-01
1.E+00
1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06 1.E+07 1.E+08 1.E+09 1.E+10 1.E+11
Size of Event (>F30)
SP
E/M
issi
on
0.1
1
10
100
1000
BF
O D
ose
, cG
y-E
q
Average Probability of Space Era
Extended Average Probability
Impulsive Nitrate Events
BFO Dose of Worst Case SPE Model
BFO Dose of SPE during Space Era
NCRP 30-day limit at BFO for LEO mission
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Frequency of SPE Occurrence in 3-Month Periods
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
3 12 21 30 39 48 57 66 75 84 93 102
111
120
Time from Solar Minimum, month
Fre
qu
ency
0
50
100
150
200
Sm
oo
thed
Mo
nth
ly S
un
spo
t N
um
ber
Frequency
Monthly sunspot number
F30 > 108 protons/cm2 for Solar Cycle 21.
Feb 1978
Apr 1978
Sept 1978
Sept 1979
Apr 1981
Jan 1982
Oct 1981
Dec 1982
Apr 1984
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Frequency of SPE Occurrence in 3-Month PeriodsF30 > 109 protons/cm2 for Solar Cycle 22.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
3 12 21 30 39 48 57 66 75 84 93 102
111
120
Time from Solar Minimum, month
Fre
qu
en
cy
0
50
100
150
200
Sm
oo
the
d M
on
thly
Su
ns
po
t N
um
be
r
Frequency
Monthly sunspot number
Sept 1989Oct 1989Aug
1989
Mar 1991
M. Kim and F. Cucinotta
Frequency of SPE Occurrence in 3-Month PeriodsF30 > 109 protons/cm2 for Solar Cycle 23.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
3 12 21 30 39 48 57 66 75 84 93 102
111
120
Time from Solar Minimum, month
Fre
qu
en
cy
0
50
100
150
200
Sm
oo
the
d M
on
thly
Su
ns
po
t N
um
be
r
Frequency
Monthly sunspot number
Jul 2000
Nov 2000
Nov 2001
Oct 2003
Jan 2005