LUCAS TAVARES DE MELLO INVESTOR RELATIONS MANAGER APRIL, 2010 · 1 petrobras business plan lucas...

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1 PETROBRAS BUSINESS PLAN LUCAS TAVARES DE MELLO INVESTOR RELATIONS MANAGER APRIL, 2010

Transcript of LUCAS TAVARES DE MELLO INVESTOR RELATIONS MANAGER APRIL, 2010 · 1 petrobras business plan lucas...

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    PETROBRAS BUSINESS PLAN

    LUCAS TAVARES DE MELLO

    INVESTOR RELATIONS MANAGER

    APRIL, 2010

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    DISCLAIMERDISCLAIMER

    The presentation may contain forecasts about

    future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the

    expectations of the Company's management.

    Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect",

    "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek",

    "should", along with similar or analogous

    expressions, are used to identify such forecasts.

    These predictions evidently involve risks and

    uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the

    Company. Therefore, the future results of

    operations may differ from current expectations,

    and readers must not base their expectations

    exclusively on the information presented herein.

    The Company is not obliged to update the

    presentation/such forecasts in light of new

    information or future developments.

    The United States Securities and Exchange

    Commission permits oil and gas companies, in

    their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved

    reserves that a company has demonstrated by

    actual production or conclusive formation tests to

    be economically and legally producible under

    existing economic and operating conditions. We

    use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil

    and gas resources, that the SECs guidelines

    strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the

    SEC.

    CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR

    US INVESTORS

  • Government maintains controlling interest with 55% of voting shares

    Market cap of approximately US$ 199 billion as of December 31st, 2009

    Foreign currency ratings from Moodys (Baa1), Standard & Poors(BBB-), and Fitch (BBB).

    Incorporated in 1953 as government monopoly for all hydrocarbon activities in Brazil

    Originally established as a refinery of imported crude oil

    Became net exporter in 2006

    60% of total equity capital (common and preferred) is now publicly traded

    PETROBRAS: AN INVESTMENT GRADE, PUBLICLY TRADED, MAJOR PETROBRAS: AN INVESTMENT GRADE, PUBLICLY TRADED, MAJOR INTERNATIONAL OIL COMPANY INTERNATIONAL OIL COMPANY

    Petrobras launched its ADR Program on the New York Stock Exchange in August 2000;

    Brazilian Oil & Gas market was fully deregulated in January 2002.

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  • On August, 2000 the Brazilian Government reduced its ownership share to 55% of the voting shares through an SEC registered secondary public offering (PBR)

    In July 2001, BNDESPar, sold a portion of its non-voting shares (PBRA)

    Since the offering in July, 2001 the ownership structure has remained virtually unchanged.

    53,6%61,6%

    44,4% 40,6%

    46,4%18,0%

    25,1%23,1% 22,8%

    10,3%9,9% 7,9%

    39,8%

    10,9% 29,5%26,4%20,3%

    9,5%

    Oct/1992 Jul/2000 After Aug/00

    offering

    After Jul/01 offering Dec/2009

    Government Bov espa Brazil Bov espa Foreign ADRs

    Foreign

    37.4%

    Brazilian

    22.8%

    (1) Includes BNDES / BNDESPAR

    Shareholder Base

    Government

    39.8%

    (1)

    60% OF THE EQUITY CAPITAL OF PETROBRAS IS PUBLICLY TRADED60% OF THE EQUITY CAPITAL OF PETROBRAS IS PUBLICLY TRADED

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  • Exploration & Production

    Downstream (Supply)

    Gas & EnergyDistribution

    Petrochemicals

    International Biofuels

    CORPORATE ORGANIZATION AND KEY OPERATING RESULTSCORPORATE ORGANIZATION AND KEY OPERATING RESULTS

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    2007 2008 2009

    Net Revenues 87.7 118.3 91.9

    EBITDA 25.6 31.1 28.9

    Net Income 13.1 18.9 15.5

    Capex 21.0 29.9 35.1

    Total Debt(1) 21.9 27.1 57.1

    Cash & Cash Equivalents 7.0 6.5 16.2

    Net Debt 14.9 20.6 40.9

    Total Equity 65.2 61.9 94.1

    Total Assets 129.7 125.7 200.3

    Summary Financials (US$ billion- USGAAP)

    -5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    Domestic E&P Downstream Gas &Energy

    Distribution International

    Operating Income* (US$ billion- USGAAP)

    18,9

    15,513,1

    2007 2008 2009(1) Includes capital leases

    * Excludes Corporate and Elimination

  • A WORLDA WORLD--CLASS, PUBLIC, INTEGRATED ENERGY COMPANYCLASS, PUBLIC, INTEGRATED ENERGY COMPANY

    Note: Peer companies selected above have a majority of capital traded in the public markets.

    (mm

    bo

    e/d

    )

    2008* Refining Capacity

    Source: Evaluate Energy and Company reports

    Source: PFC Energy *Report December 2009

    Market Value as of March 16th, 2010

    (US

    $ b

    n)

    Source: Bloomberg

    2, 679 2, 6582, 164 2, 115

    833315

    5, 573

    3, 133

    3, 933

    X OM R D S B P C O P T O T P B R C V X E N I ST L

    (th

    ou

    san

    d b

    oe

    /d)

    BP XOM RDS CVX PBR COP Total ENI BG

    Gas Production boe/d

    Oil Production boe/d

    3.9 3.9

    2.7 2.52.5

    2.2

    1.7

    0.6

    84%(oil)

    3.2

    2009 Oil & Gas Production

    314

    197181

    747896

    138149

    179

    X OM P B R R D S B P C V X T O T E N I C O P ST L

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  • Business Plan 2009-2013

    25%

    2%2%

    7%

    3%2%

    59%

    E&P

    RTC

    G&E

    Petrochemicals

    Biofuels

    Distribution

    Corporate

    US$ 174.4 billion

    104.6 (*)43.4

    11.8

    5.6 3.0

    2.8

    3.2

    (*) US$ 17.0 billion allocated to Exploration

    INCREASING INVESTMENTS WITH CAREFULLY CRAFTED SPENDING INCREASING INVESTMENTS WITH CAREFULLY CRAFTED SPENDING PROGRAMPROGRAM

    PN 2009-13 | Brazil/International

    91%

    9%

    158.2

    16.2

    Brazil

    International

    US$ 174.4 billion

    MONITORING FINANCIAL RATIOSMONITORING FINANCIAL RATIOSo Leverage between 25% and 35%

    o Net Debt/ EBITDA up to 2.5X

    RELEVANT ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE PROJECTIONSRELEVANT ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE PROJECTIONSo Brent curve upward trend

    o Capitalization value and timing

    o Funding needs for the new Business Plan 2010-2014

    INVESTMENT 2010 INVESTMENT 2010 2014 2014

    BETWEEN US$ 200 TO US$ 220 BILLIONS:BETWEEN US$ 200 TO US$ 220 BILLIONS:

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  • 2009 CAPEX AND 2010 ESTIMATE 2009 CAPEX AND 2010 ESTIMATE

    0

    5.000

    10.000

    15.000

    20.000

    25.000

    30.000

    35.000

    40.000

    45.000

    50.0002009

    2010

    2009

    2010

    2009

    2010

    2009

    2010

    2009

    2010

    2009

    2010

    2009

    2010

    2009

    2010

    2009

    2010

    2009

    2010

    2009

    2010

    US$ MM

    2009 average without Petrobras

    2010 average without Petrobras

    Source: Evaluate Energy and Company Reports

    2010 Petrobras CAPEX , of R$ 88.5 Bi, was converted using FX rate of 1,87 R$/US$ (2010 Petrobras premise). For 2009, preliminary results in USGAAP Not audited

    *

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  • 8.0

    4.8

    2.9 2.82.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7

    -

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    US

    Ch

    ina

    Jap

    an

    Ind

    ia

    Ru

    ssia

    Ge

    rman

    y

    Bra

    zil

    Ca

    nad

    a

    S. K

    ore

    a

    Sau

    di

    Me

    xic

    o

    Fra

    nce

    Iran UK

    Ital

    y

    2008 Total Oil Consumption by Country (mmbo/d)

    DOMINANT POSITION IN A LARGE AND GROWING EMERGING MARKETDOMINANT POSITION IN A LARGE AND GROWING EMERGING MARKET

    Source: BP Statistical Review 2009, PFC Energy

    Brazil is worlds seventh-

    largest oil consumer.

    Brazil oil consumption

    growing at 1.99% p.a;

    OECD oil consumption

    growing at 0.17% p.a.

    19.4

    100

    105

    110

    115

    120

    125

    19

    97

    19

    98

    19

    99

    20

    00

    20

    01

    20

    02

    20

    03

    20

    04

    20

    05

    20

    06

    20

    07

    20

    08

    Brazil US OECD World

    Total Oil Consumption mb/d (index)

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  • (000 b/d)

    FAST GROWING DOMESTIC DEMANDFAST GROWING DOMESTIC DEMAND

    230 257

    326 332 367419

    250 220255

    24684 89118

    179

    738 771

    901

    1224

    112

    150

    182 208

    274

    400

    215208

    109119

    2007 2008 2013E 2020E

    Others

    FO

    Diesel

    QAV

    Naphta

    Gasoline

    LPG

    1,906

    3.3% p.y.

    3.0% p.y.1,944

    2,257

    2,876

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  • GAS & ENERGY: BALANCING SUPPLY & DEMANDGAS & ENERGY: BALANCING SUPPLY & DEMAND

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    27 3033 36

    40 41

    1719

    2734

    3945

    1419

    36

    41

    44

    49

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    National Supply Bolivian Supply LNG: Existing Regas Capacity LNG Additions

    Industrial Demand Other Uses Thermoelectric Demand

    68

    96

    112

    123

    135

    58

    Industrial

    Other Uses

    Electricity Generation

    Domestic Supply

    Bolivia

    LNG

    million m

    3/d @ 9,400 k cal/m3

    926

    1,477

    4.528

    3.692

    Projects in Portfolio New Investments Proposed

    Projects in Portfolio New Investments Proposed

    Natural Gas

    US$ 8.2 billion

    Energy

    US$ 2.4 billion

    G&E 2009-13 InvestmentsUS$ 10.6 billion

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  • Petrobras Total Production (x 1000 boe/d)

    1.335

    232

    4424

    1.500

    252

    3522

    1.540

    251161

    85

    1.493

    265168

    94

    1.684

    274163

    96

    1.778

    277142

    101

    1.792

    273126

    110

    1.855

    321124100

    1,971

    316

    14197

    2.680

    634

    210

    131

    3.920

    1.177

    409

    223

    2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ..... 2013 2020.....

    * Consider +- 2,5%

    9.7% p.y.

    2,4002,3012,2972,217

    2,0202,0371,8101,635

    5.6% p.y.

    7.7% p.y.

    3,655

    5,729

    Oil production - Brazil Gas production - Brazil Oil production - International Gas production - International

    PETROBRAS PRODUCTION GROWTHPETROBRAS PRODUCTION GROWTH

    2,525

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  • DOMESTIC E&P PROFILEDOMESTIC E&P PROFILE

    2009 Proven Reserves (SPE)

    9% 10%

    57%

    24%

    14.17 billion boe

    Shallow water (0-300m)Onshore Deep water (300-1500m) Ultra-deep water (> 1500m)

    Source: Petrobras

    14% 10%

    57%

    19%

    2009 Production

    2,287 thousand boed

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  • COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IN THE DEEPWATERCOMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IN THE DEEPWATER

    XOM

    APC

    6%

    MUR

    Petrobras operates 22% of global deepwater production and 18% of all operating vessels

    Source: (1) PFC Energy | Note: Estimated volumes above reflect what operators are responsible for producing, not what they keep on a net working interest or entitlement basis. Minimum water depth is 300 meters; twelve operators above account for 94% of global deepwater production in 2008. (2) Copyright 2008 ODS-Petrodata, Inc.

    2008 Gross Global Operated Deepwater Production

    PBR

    22%

    XOM

    14%

    RDS

    14%

    STL

    14%

    BP

    9%

    TOT

    8%

    CVX

    6%

    APC

    5%

    BG

    4%

    MUR

    2%

    REL

    1%

    HES

    1%

    2%

    HES

    1%1%

    REL

    8

    45

    5

    8

    10

    12

    13

    15

    15

    100

    9

    12

    0 20 40 60 80 100 120

    Petrobras

    Shell

    StatoilHydro

    ExxonMobil

    BP

    Chevron

    Anadarko

    Total

    CNOOC

    ConocoPhillips

    ENI/Agip

    Others

    FPSO Semi Spar TLP Other

    FPS OperatorsAll Contracted Vessels (252 Vessels Total)

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  • Petrobras Pre-salt Oil Production (000 b/d)

    2013 2015 2017 2020

    62152

    160

    422

    463

    873

    632

    1.183

    Pre-Salt Petrobras Pre-Salt Partners

    219

    1,336

    1,815

    582

    Pre-salt Capex Through 2020 (US$ billion)

    Petrobras Total Pre-salt Capex (Production Development)

    Santos Basin Pre-salt

    Esprito Santo Pre-salt (includes post-salt fields)

    2009-2013 2009-2020

    28.9

    18.4

    10.3

    111.4

    98.8

    12.6

    PREPRE--SALT OIL PRODUCTIONSALT OIL PRODUCTION

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  • ESTABLISHED EXPLORATION PORTFOLIO AT DIFFERENT STAGES ESTABLISHED EXPLORATION PORTFOLIO AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF DEVELOPMENTOF DEVELOPMENT

    Potiguar

    SEAL& REC & TUC

    Bahia Sul

    Esprito Santo

    Campos

    Santos

    Ceara & Potiguar

    Pelotas

    Margem Equatorial

    Solimes

    So Francisco

    Petrobras

    Others

    Brazil Exploration: 2009-13 US$ 13.8 bn

    Exploratory Area: 157.59 km

    278 exploratory blocks

    30 appraisal plans

    303 production concessions

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  • PREPRE--SALT JOINT VENTURESSALT JOINT VENTURES

    EXX (40%), HES (40%) e BR (20%)

    Blocks Consortium

    BMS-8

    BMS-9

    BMS-10

    BMS-11

    BMS-21

    BMS-22

    BMS-24

    BR (66%), SH (20%) e PTG (14%)

    BR (45%), BG (30%) e RPS (25%)

    BR (65%), BG (25%) e PAX (10%)

    BR (65%), BG (25%) e PTG (10%)

    BR (80%), PTG (20%)

    BR (80%), PTG (20%)

    Blocks Consortium

    BC-60 BR (100%)JubarteCachaloteBalia FrancaBaleia AzulBaleia An

    Shore Distance = 300 km

    Total Area = 15.000 km2

    Shore Distance = 60 km

    Total Area = 3.000 km2

    Total Area: 149,000 km2 Area Under Concession: 41,772 km2 (28%) Area Not Under Concession: 107,228 km (72%) Area With Petrobras Interest: 35,739 km2 (24%)

    1.1-2 bi

    boer

    JUBARTEESS-103 CHL-4

    BFR-1

    BAZ-1

    1111----2 2 2 2

    Bi Bi Bi Bi boerboerboerboer

    BMBM--SS--1111

    (Tupi)(Tupi)

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  • 1977

    Enchova

    410ft

    1988

    Marimb

    1610ft

    1994

    Marlin

    3,370ft

    1997

    Marlin Sul

    5,600ft2003

    Roncador

    6,180 ftDRILLING MILES BY WATER DEEPTH

    GOM wells are a continuation of our process of

    developing deepwater production in offshore Brazil

    PROCESS OF DEVELOPING DEEPWATER PRODUCTION IN OFFSHOREPROCESS OF DEVELOPING DEEPWATER PRODUCTION IN OFFSHORE

    2009Tupi

    7,125 ft

    2010CascadeChinook 8,250ft

    TUPI

    WATER DEPTH = 7,125 ft

    TOTAL DRILLING DEPTH = 17,431 ft

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  • USING CONTRACTS AND LEASES TO SECURE NEEDED DRILLING USING CONTRACTS AND LEASES TO SECURE NEEDED DRILLING ASSETSASSETS

    19

    Water Depth

    Total per year

    34 rigs operating in 2009

    27 rigs contracted to be delivered until 2012

    Bids are out to construct 28 rigs in Brazil, being delivered between 2013 and 2018

    500-1000m

    1000-1500m

    2500-3000m

    9

    8

    4

    34

    2000-2500m

    12

    1

    1500-2000m

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013- 2018

    +28 to be leased

    +3

    +5

    +3

    +12

    +3

    +4

    +7

    +4

    +4

    +8

    +1

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  • CAMPOS BASIN: A GIANT TECHNOLOGY LABCAMPOS BASIN: A GIANT TECHNOLOGY LAB

    Petrobras Offshore Facilities

    EquipmentInstalledDec/2009

    Planned(2010)

    733 72

    2

    633

    358

    35

    3

    2

    74

    4,425

    3,391

    1,630

    40

    2

    Subsea Trees

    Subsea Manifolds

    Flexible Flowlines

    (km)

    Umbilicals(km)

    Rigid Pipelines

    (km)

    Floating

    Production

    Units

    Mono-buoys

    ManifoldSubsea Trees

    Umbilicals

    Flexible Flowlines

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  • Items Un. TOTAL

    Reactors un 280

    Oil and water splitter un 50

    Storage Tankers un 1.800

    Turrets un 550

    Items Un. TOTAL

    Power Generators un 500

    Filters un 300

    Flares un 30

    Items Un. TOTAL

    Wet Christmas Tree un 500

    Well Head un 500

    Flexible Lines km 4.000

    Manifolds un 30

    Producing pipes t 42.000

    Umbilical km 2.200

    Dry Christmas Tree un 1.700

    Onshore well head un 1.700

    Items Un. TOTAL

    Pumps un 8.000

    Compressors un 700

    Winch un 450

    Crane un 200

    Engines un 1.000

    Turbines un 350

    Structure Steal (Hull) t 240.000

    Structure Steal (Platforms Hull) t 700.000

    NEW EQUIPMENT TO BE CONTRACTEDNEW EQUIPMENT TO BE CONTRACTED

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  • LONG TERM HR CHALLENGESLONG TERM HR CHALLENGES

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

    52,862Qualified

    Professionals

    207,643Human Resource Gap

    BP 2009-13

    Leasing of 19 Vessels

    Refinery- Premium I

    28 Rigs

    146 sSpply Vessels

    New Production Platforms

    Promef II

    Refinery-Premium II

    Business Plan 2008 2012

    25,540Professionals

    Selected

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    Information:

    Investor Relations

    +55 11 3224-1510

    [email protected]