LPS Mortgage Monitor - August 2012

: : :

: : :

: :: :

: : :

: : :

: : :

: : :

: : :

: : :

: : :

:

LPS Mortgage Monitor

ON

S.O

NS.

: : :

: : :

: :

September 2012 Mortgage Performance Observations

WER

FUL

SOLU

TIO

WER

FUL

SOLU

TIO

Data as of August, 2012 Month-end

E S

OU

RC

E. P

OW

E S

OU

RC

E. P

OW

Lender Processing Services 1

ON

EO

NE

August 2012 “First Look”McDash Online Release: Sept 17th


DQs are down almost 35% from peak; FCs still near highs


Delinquencies and Foreclosures State Comparison

Average year over year change in non-current percent


(includes loans 30+ Delinquent or in Foreclosure)Judicial =-2.6% Non-judicial =-8.7%

August prepayment rates hit the highest levels since 2005


Loans with equity have much higher speeds, but HARP impact YTD is clear


Prepayment increase was broad-based across product


2007 and earlier vintages continue to display effects of burn-out


Fewer than 30% of 2007 and prior vintages remain active and current


New problem loan rates increased slightly in August


Jumbo prime non-current rates remain over 8x pre-crisis levels


90+ delinquencies are down almost 50% from the peak


Signs of ongoing modification activity remain in late stage delinquency


First-time starts lowest since ’08; repeat foreclosure rate at new high


Increase in foreclosure starts was concentrated in judicial states


Increase in repeat foreclosures was greatest in GSE product


First time FC starts in judicial states dropped sharply for GSE product


Judicial foreclosure % near highs;non-judicial continues to decline


Foreclosure sales increased in August; remain 33% below 2010 peak


Monthly increase impacted both judicial and non-judicial states


Increased foreclosure sales have lowered pipeline ratios


Pipeline ratios in NY, NJ and HI are still extreme


July origination volume remained modest (does not reflect Aug activity)


: : :

: : :

: :: :

: : :

: : :

: : :

: : :

: : :

: : :

: : :

:

LPS Mortgage Monitor

ON

S.: :

: : :

: : :

Disclosures: Product / Metric Definitions and July 2012 Market Sizing Revisions

WER

FUL

SOLU

TIO July 2012 Market Sizing Revisions

E S

OU

RC

E. P

OW


ON

E

Disclosure Page: Product DefinitionsDisclosure Page: Product Definitions

*Conforming limits do not account for temporary or high-cost area increases.


Disclosure Page: Metrics DefinitionsDisclosure Page: Metrics Definitions

• Total Active Count: All active loans as of month-end including loans in any state of delinquency or foreclosure. Post-sale loans and loans in REO are excluded from the total q yactive count.

• Delinquency Statuses (30, 60, 90+, etc): All delinquency statuses are calculated using the MBA methodology based on the payment due date provided by the servicer. Loans in foreclosure are reported separately and are not included in the MBA days delinquentforeclosure are reported separately and are not included in the MBA days delinquent.

• 90 Day Defaults: Loans that were less than 90 days delinquent in the prior month and were 90 days delinquent, but not in foreclosure, in the current month.

• Foreclosure Inventory: The servicer has referred the loan to an attorney for f l L i i f l i t f f l t lforeclosure. Loans remain in foreclosure inventory from referral to sale.

• Foreclosure Starts – Any active loan that was not in foreclosure in the prior month that moves into foreclosure inventory in the current month.

• Non-Current: Loans in any stage of delinquency or foreclosure.y g q y• Foreclosure Sale / New REO: Any loan that was in foreclosure in the prior month that

moves into post-sale status or is flagged as a foreclosure liquidation.• REO: The loan is in post-sale foreclosure status. Listing status is not a consideration,

this includes all properties on and off the market


this includes all properties on and off the market.• Deterioration Ratio: The ratio of the percentage of loans deteriorating in delinquency

status vs. those improving.

With the June 2012 month-end data LPS has updated itsWith the June 2012 month end data, LPS has updated its extrapolation methodology to incorporate, among other things, improved estimates of market size, which includes hi h f t d b i d t dhigher coverage of government and subprime products and increases LPS’ estimate of the total first lien residential mortgage market by three percent to 50.4 million.

To ensure consistency in trend analysis, the new methodology has been applied to all historical data andmethodology has been applied to all historical data and previously reported mortgage performance statistics have been adjusted accordingly.

The following section contains information on market coverage and comparisons with previously reported


statistics. Additional information is available upon request.

The new scaling increases overall estimated industry loan count by approximately 1.2 million loans

Prior industry estimates declinedPrior industry estimates declined because scaling didn’t support current servicing transfer volumes


New scaling reflects the higher coverage of government loans and allows for the incorporation of new servicers


Delinquencies decline based on higher estimated coverage of FHA and subprime loans.

Converge due to new servicers and transfer issues with prior scaling


Foreclosure inventory remains almost identical, but shifts up in recent months as transfer bias is repaired


Foreclosure starts remain consistent, withrates shifting up slightly


Performance Statistics Changes: Database CountsPerformance Statistics Changes: Database Counts


Performance Statistics Changes: State Level DetailPerformance Statistics Changes: State Level Detail


LPS Mortgage Monitor - August 2012

Documents

Transcript of LPS Mortgage Monitor - August 2012