LOUISE O. FRESCO

Towards sustainable agriculture

Louise O. Fresco

LOUISE O. FRESCO

Most Humans have been Hunters and Gatherers

LOUISE O. FRESCO

Agriculture as the basis for urban development, art and

science

LOUISE O. FRESCO

Agriculture is…human activities

transforming solar energy at the earth’s surface into

useful energy through plants and animals

Food chain: “from plant to plate”

LOUISE O. FRESCO

Mixed Farming in the Middle Ages – Duc de Berry

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Potatoes and Andean Tubers imported from the New World after 1492

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Early Mechanisation

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Urbanisation Bombay 15-20 M Inhabitants

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• Human interventions: agroecosystems• Increasing control over nutrients, water

and pathogens• Substituting human and animal labour by

power• Area expansion versus Yield increases

BUT HIGH ECOLOGICAL COSTS

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Environmental DamageDestruction of Rain Forest

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Environmental Damage Salinization

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Water and Agriculture (2030)70 % of All Renewable Water Resources

used in Agriculture

Increase Irrigated Area in Developing Countries by 34%:

• Only 14 % more water to do so• How is this possible?• Changing food habits -> increase water needs• Efficiency (rice vs wheat 2:1; animal feed)• Irrigation efficiency increases from 38 to 42 % • Major regional differences• In many countries > 4% annual efficiency increase needed

LOUISE O. FRESCO

Indicative trends in world food needs

1970  2000  2030

World population 3.9 billion

6 billion

8.3 billion

Available calories per person 2360 2800  3050 

Number of hungry people (but Africa declines only from 194 to 183)

915 million

777 million

444 million

Meat consumption per person 10 kg 26 kg 37 kg

Food imports in developing countries

100 M tons

265 M tons

World population annual growth 1970-2000 1.7 %

2000-2030 1.1%

World Food Demand annual growth 1970-2000 2.2%

2000-2030 1.5%

LOUISE O. FRESCOCan we feed 9 bn and fuel the economy

sustainably?

LOUISE O. FRESCO

New Technologies - Precision Agriculture

LOUISE O. FRESCO

New technologies - Tissue culture

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Biotechnology

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LOUISE O. FRESCO

Closed System Agriculture

LOUISE O. FRESCO

• Globalisation, Labeling & Consumers • Improve Food Production and Quality

(Animal Proteins and Horticulture)• Novel & Health Foods• Climate Mitigation (CO2, CH4 fix)• Ecosystems Management (Water,

Biodiversity)• Biofuels

Future challenges

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Protest during WTO Meetings in Hong Kong

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WTO Negotiations Geneva

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– Dramatic Increase in Trade Volume– Volume of Agricultural Products Increase – More Trade within Regions– Reduction of Domestic Support to Agriculture and

Export Subsidies – Increased Market Access (Reduced Tariffs but

Technical Barriers Remain)– Trade Liberalisation Continues (Positive Effects on

Consumers)– Labeling (GMO and Fair Trade)

Agricultural Trade: Negotiations Continue

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Quality Control along the Food Chain

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LOUISE O. FRESCO

Rice variations

Agriculture and Ecosystem Management. Diversity.Hydrology.Landscape

Variety trial

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New Challenges: Climate and Bio-energy

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Benefits of higher CO2

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Canola (Brassica spp)Biofuel= energy produced directly or indirectly

from biomass

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Sugarcane for Ethanol, Australia

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Figure 4. Biofuel Yields of Ethanol and Biodiesel Feedstock

Ethanol Feedstock Biodiesel Feedstock

Source: Fulton et al.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Barley Wheat Corn SugarBeet

SugarCane

Soybean CastorBeans

SunflowerSeed

Rape-seed

Jatropha Palmoil

Lite

rs P

er

Hect

are

LOUISE O. FRESCO

The Promise of Bio-energy

• Potential ¼-th – 2 times current global primary energy requirements

• Short term : vegetable oils and ethanol from sugar cane , wheat sugar beet (1st generation)

• Coming up: cellulosic ethanol and synthetic diesel (Fisher Tropsch, BTL 2nd generation)– allows for wider range of feedstock – greater reduction in well to wheel CO2-emission per litre of fuel

• Key success factors– costs of production and distribution – Organisation of the value chain

• CSR issues (civilization in the value chain) – Energy and GHG- balance– Competition with food – Bio-diversity, erosion

LOUISE O. FRESCO

LOUISE O. FRESCO

Food or Fuel?• Some Price Induced Competition may occur • Biofuel Production from Edible Crops is

limited anyway• Conflict can be avoided by Clever Choice of

Feedstock– MSW and Agricultural Residues – High Yield (Perennial) Crops

• Increased Agricultural Productivity and More Efficient Conversion Processes, will free up Land for Food, Feed and Fuel

• Bio-energy will be complemented by Energy Efficiency and Other Renewables

Revenues from energy farming can boost agricultural productivity and sustainable rural development

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- Ecosystem services (biodiv, water, green space)

- Effects on climate GHG NOx & hydrology (?)

- Contribution to climate mitigation (CO2 fixation and biofuels)

And then: sustainability…

. Definitions (desirabilities)

. Intergenerational

. Social, political and environmental

. Trade offs and substitutions

. Growth, resilience and stability

. Markets & externalities

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• Demand-driven chains are becoming predominant

• Multiformity and differences in interests between sectors is becoming more accepted

• Knowledge and insights in basic processes are becoming predominant

Agriculture in a changing world

LOUISE O. FRESCO

• Farmaceuticals

• Flagrances• Flavours• Flowers

• Fruits• Vegetables

• Food Crops• Fodder

• Fibers• Fuel

• Farmaceuticals

• Flagrances• Flavours• Flowers

• Fruits• Vegetables

• Food Crops• Fodder

• Fibers• Fuel

LOUISE O. FRESCO

A bio-based economy…? Let’s speculate:

• Biotechnology for (new) chemicals and materials – at least in processing steps

• Eco-efficient use of renewable resources as raw materials for the industry

• Bio- energy (ethanol derived from lingo-cellulose, little starch or oil)

• Rural bio-refineries will replace port-based oil refineries

• Recognition of ecological services of agriculture

• Strong links between research, industry, agriculture and civil society

And after 2030?

LOUISE O. FRESCO

Arcimboldo

We are what we eat and what we produce…