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Temporary Blemishes or Lifelong Scars? Cohort fluctuations in Education and Stratification

in France and United-States (1980-2005)

Louis Chauvel Pr at Sciences Po Paris

chauvel@sciences-po.frhttp://www.louischauvel.org

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My aims

1. Theory: Cohorts, Hysteresis & Resilience

2. Methodology: from the standard Age-Period-Cohort models to the assessment of resilience

3. Substance: diffusion of diploma and occupational prestige/class in France and the US

4. Results: intensity of cohort fluctuations and intensity of resilience

5. Discussion: US and France : two different regimes of diffusion of education and of status attainment

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Theory of social generations (Karl Mannheim)

Cohort and social change (Norman Ryder)

The methodology of APC analysis (Yang Yang)

Examples: * suicide in France * consumption in China* political participation * etc. , etc. , etc.

Karl Mannheim1893-1947

Yang Yang1970?-

Norman Ryder 1923-2010

1. Th: The importance of cohort analysis

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Socialization versus individual and collective history

• Life course and socialization• Primary and secondary socialization• The « transitionnal socialization »

• Long term impact of the « transitionnal socialization » : « scar effect »

• History and the constitution of a Generationengeist (spirit of generations) and of a Generationenlage (situation of generation)

Primary socialization

Until the end of mandatory secondary education (?)

Transitionnal socialization

Secondary socialization

« adulthood »

25-30 y.o.16-18 y.o.

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Methodology : the base A = P – C The Lexis Diagram (1872)

2030

C 1918

C 1978

1890 1910 1930 1950 Period

60

40

20

0

Age Life line: cohort born in 1948

1970

Isochron: observation in 1968

Age at year of

observation: 20

1990 2010

80

The Lexis Diagram (1872)

2030

C 1918

C 1978

1890 1910 1930 1950 Period

60

40

20

0

Age Life line: cohort born in 1948

1970

Isochron: observation in 1968

Age at year of

observation: 20

1990 2010

80

BUT ! How to distinguish durable scarring effects and fads ???

Hysteresis = stability versus Resilience = resorption of scars

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Methodo : Intrinsic Estimator for Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

Yang Yang, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Wenjiang J. Fu, and Kenneth C. Land. 2008. “The Intrinsic Estimator for Age-Period-Cohort Analysis:

What It Is and How To Use It.” American Journal of Sociology,113(May).

2. Methodology: APC and resilience

The standard APC : identification problem solved (Wilmoth 2002)

numberuneven an is groups,cohort ofnumber the, if ,0)12/)1((

numbereven an is groups,cohort ofnumber the, if ,0)12/(

0

1ln

(1)

c

c

pca

cpacstx

x

The intrinsic estimator APC

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

25

30

35

40

45

50

Example : US and diplomas (bachelor and master degrees)

Age

BCohort

% of bachelor (and+) degree owners

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-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

Example : US and diplomas (bachelor and master degrees)

BCohort

Cohort coefficents of the APC model of bachelor (and+) degree owners

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(1) as sconstraint same

age edstandardiz minusby ofproduct theis vector thewhere

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ln

(2)

c

chpacstx

x

The test of hysteresis

http://www.louischauvel.org/apchexem.htm

Examples there :

h<0 => “resilience”: decreasing cohort fluctuations over life course. h=0 => “hysteresis”: stability of cohort effect over life courseh>0 => “cohort Matthew effect”: increasing cohort fluctuations

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3. Substance: diffusion of diploma and occupational prestige/class in France and the US

Diploma diffusion / overeducation (Freeman 1975) / “inflation of diploma” (Marie Duru Bellat, 2005) Mismatches between number of young graduates and social positions as professionals Myth or reality?

The United States file

The file is a 1975-2008 United States Current population survey. There is no intersection with the previous file. The size of the extract containing population between age 20 and 64 is n= 1.285.367. It is an extract from IPUMS-CPS Minnesota site.

The French file

The French file is similar: a « Enquête Emploi » (1975-2008) cumulative file (size of the extract containing people between age 20 and 64 is n=942 550).

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Educational inflation % of Baccalaureat holders accessing EGP service class (h+l) 1970-2005

Period

Age

Source : Enquêtes emploi 1970-2005 N= 774.424

France

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4. Results: strong effects in France with no resilience weak effect in the US and resilience 5a- Cohort fluctuation coefficients of acess to EGP-I class in the U.S. no control

y = 1E-16x - 1E-08

R2 = 1E-28

-0,2

-0,15

-0,1

-0,05

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

5b- Cohort fluctuation coefficients of acess to EGP-I class in the U.S. all controls (gender race education)

y = 7E-10x - 1E-06

R2 = 1E-14

-0,15

-0,1

-0,05

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

US

US

H = -.1986096 CI=[-.2959371; -.1012821] H<0

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4. Results: strong effects in France with some resilience weak effect in the US and hysteresis

6a- Cohort fluctuation coefficients of acess to EGP-I class in FR no control

y = -3E-10x + 7E-07

R2 = 2E-15

-0,25

-0,2

-0,15

-0,1

-0,05

0

0,05

0,1

0,15

0,2

0,25

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

6b- Cohort fluctuation coefficients of acess to EGP-I class in FR all controls (gender race education)

y = 1E-09x - 3E-06

R2 = 1E-14

-0,4

-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

France

France

H = -.1053799 CI = [-.2738079 ; .063048]H not sign diff to 0

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5. Discussion: France (Mediterranean europe) and the problem of youth

Differences in Welfare and educational regimes

In France http://www.louischauvel.org/frenchpolcultsoc.pdf Lack of integration of educated young workers in France Risk of “déclassement social” Problem of matching between education and real positions

In the U.S. “that’s OK” Future concerns

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Duru-Bellat M. (2006) L'inflation scolaire : les désillusions de la méritocratie. Paris : Le Seuil.

Ellwood D. (1982) “Teenage Unemployment: Permanent Scars or Temporary Blemishes?”, in Richard B. Freeman and David A. Wise, The Youth Labor Market Problem, Its Nature, Causes, and Consequences, National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report, Chicago : University of Chicago Press.

Mason W.M. and S.E. Fienberg (1985), Cohort Analysis in Social Research : Beyond the Identification Problem, Berlin, Springer Verlag.

Freeman, R.B. (1976) The overeducated American. New York: Academic Press.

Gangl, M. (2004) “Welfare states and the scar effects of unemployment: a comparative analysis of the United States and West Germany.” American Journal of Sociology 109 (6), 1319-1364

Hastings, D.W. and L.G. Berry (1979) Cohort Analysis: a Collection of Iterdisciplinary Readings. Oxford, OH: Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems.

Mannheim, K. (1928) “Das Problem der Generationen“, Kölner Vierteljahres Hefte für Soziologie 7: 157-85, 309-30.

Ryder, N.B. (1965) “The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change.” American Sociological Review, 30: 843-861.

Yang Y., Fu W.J. and Land K.C. (2004) “A Methodological Comparison of Age-Period-Cohort Models: The Intrinsic Estimator and Conventional Generalized Linear Models”, Sociological Methodology, Vol. 34, (2004), pp. 75-110

Yang Y. and Land K.C. (2006) “A Mixed Models Approach to Age-Period Cohort Analysis of Repeated Cross-Section Surveys: Trends in Verbal Test Scores”, Sociological Methodology, 36:75-97.

Yang Y. and K. Land (2008) “Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Repeated Cross-Section Surveys: Fixed or Random Effects?”, Sociological Methods and Research 36: 297-326.

Yang Y. (2008) “Social Inequalities in Happiness in the U.S. 1972-2004: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis”, American Sociological Review 73:204-226.

Basic references