Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased ... · Project Team –FEMA and Contractor...

Proud Platinum Sponsor

of the ASFPM 2017

Annual Conference

Looking to the Future:San Francisco Bay

Increased Flooding ScenariosKristen MacDougall, CFM

Assistant Technical Director, GIS

ASFPM 2017 Annual Conference “FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE HEARTLAND” Kansas City, Missouri, April 30–May 5

The first product of its kind in FEMA Region IX

San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding

Scenarios, Coastal Flood Risk Products

Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased Flooding Scenarios

9

SAN FRANCISCO

BAY AREA

counties

8.7Mpeople

People, homes, businesses,

critical infrastructure

low-lying areasin

101communities

45near the shoreline

Project Team – FEMA and Contractor Partners


– Kris May: Project Manager

– Lisa Messano, Laura Adleman: Communications & Outreach

– Kristen MacDougall: GIS Lead

– Mark Lightner: Tool Development

– James Johnston, Whitney Kirkendall: QA/QC

– Michael Mak: Coastal Engineering Support

– Juliette Hayes: Risk Analysis Branch Chief,

Mitigation Division, FEMA Region IX

– Eric Simmons: Senior Engineer, FEMA Region IX

– Patricia Rippe: Senior Compliance Officer, FEMA Region IX

FEMA Products: Regulatory and Flood Risk


Regulatory Products Flood Risk Products

GDB GDB

• Many communities are being asked to comply with

higher standards

FEDERAL• President’s Executive Order

(EO) 13690 (January 30, 2015)

– Aims to improve resilience to

flooding by adopting new flood

risk reduction standards for

federally-funded actions and

projects.

• EO 13690 - Expands floodplain

management from the base flood

level to a higher vertical elevation

and corresponding horizontal

floodplain.

STATE• California Assembly Bill 691 -

State lands: granted trust lands:

sea level rise.

• California Senate Bill 379 -

Land use: general plan; safety

element; climate adaptation.

• Executive Order B-30-15 -

Requires State agencies to take

climate change into account in

their planning and investment

decisions.

FIRMs are used for many purposes beyond assessing flood insurance rates:

Why Do We Need These Products?


Image Credit: Steve Rothaus, Miami Herald

• Sea level rise may increase flood elevations

Image Credit: California Coastal Conservancy

• Climate change may change storm characteristics and

increase flood hazards

Image credit: Jorge Rodriguez/Flickr through a Creative Commons license

• Storms can be larger than the 1% annual chance event

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=imgres&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjs6LWvo8DTAhVW12MKHSQ8BYcQjRwIBw&url=http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/blog/2014/10/03/sea-level-rise-in-miami/&psig=AFQjCNExZcaMED_n9zqRgMW631BOKz-8bw&ust=1493232684538581

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=imgres&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjs6LWvo8DTAhVW12MKHSQ8BYcQjRwIBw&url=http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/blog/2014/10/03/sea-level-rise-in-miami/&psig=AFQjCNExZcaMED_n9zqRgMW631BOKz-8bw&ust=1493232684538581

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=imgres&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi4_pvcpcDTAhVkzlQKHTAzCGUQjRwIBw&url=https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/24/science/global-warming-coastal-real-estate.html&psig=AFQjCNF1NnGn1uqsFIxnPNPbanUxfjG8Lw&ust=1493233264587695

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=imgres&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi4_pvcpcDTAhVkzlQKHTAzCGUQjRwIBw&url=https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/24/science/global-warming-coastal-real-estate.html&psig=AFQjCNF1NnGn1uqsFIxnPNPbanUxfjG8Lw&ust=1493233264587695

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwim27rfocDTAhUL4GMKHUCDC80QjRwIBw&url=http://blog.nature.org/science/2013/07/15/new-study-coastal-nature-reduce-risk-storm-united-states/&psig=AFQjCNFt_BCI3y5TbkIim0DEjbNjFW4IRg&ust=1493232244907762

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwim27rfocDTAhUL4GMKHUCDC80QjRwIBw&url=http://blog.nature.org/science/2013/07/15/new-study-coastal-nature-reduce-risk-storm-united-states/&psig=AFQjCNFt_BCI3y5TbkIim0DEjbNjFW4IRg&ust=1493232244907762

Increased Flooding Scenarios (“IFS”) Dataset Details

– Includes the extent of increased flood hazard area

associated with a +1 foot, +2 foot, +3 foot increase in the

1% stillwater elevation

– Coastal mapping only (no riverine)

– Increase in 1% stillwater elevation

• Wave runup is located primarily along the Bay shoreline in areas

with steep slopes and coastal structures (e.g., levees, floodwalls,

revetments)

• Increase in wave runup is NOT linear

• Does not account for shoreline change, erosion, subsidence, levee

upgrades or other shoreline modifications


21

IFS Dataset: Example Map & Profile View

Calculated with

1% stillwater elevation


IFS Dataset: Profile View

IFS Dataset: Tool Automation

– Created using ArcGIS and

Python

– Ability to run on a single

community or multiple

datasets

– Low amount of data

manipulation


IFS Dataset: Manual Tasks

Over 50 manual steps in the original process…


IFS Dataset: Tool Tasks

Tool reduces manual interaction to 5 steps


IFS Tool: Process Overview & Inputs

– Convert SFHA polygons to raster based on BFE value

– Add increase (+1, +2, +3 ft)

– Create a depth grid (BFE – DEM)

– Classify raster where depth is >= 0

– Evaluate connectivity

– Convert to smoothed polygons

– Attribute polygons & QC


IFS Tool: Outputs

Water Surface

Elevation RasterDepth Grid Greater than 0

Connected Raster Smoothed Polygon


Flood Risk AwarenessThe FEMA FIRM depicts existing hazards – but flood risk can be greater than shown on the FIRM. Use the IFS dataset to start conversations in your community regarding coastal risks.

Floodplain Management & RegulationHelps communities meet Federal and/or State Executive Orders; State laws and requirements.

Helps evaluate adopting higher standards (e.g., higher freeboard requirement) than the minimum Federal or state requirement.

PlanningAnticipate local planning strategies and needs.

For California, help plan for EPA’s & FEMA Safe Growth Strategies for the San Francisco Bay Area.


Using the IFS dataset in your community

Outreach

– Online Web App Viewer• http://fema.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=80bb493a0

a334c5199ef4b9034c2c7fb

– GIS Data Downloads• www.r9map.org

• County-based GDBs

• SF Bay area-wide GDB

• PDF MapBooks

– Informational Brochure & FAQ

– Targeted Webinar Presentations


http://fema.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=80bb493a0a334c5199ef4b9034c2c7fb

http://www.r9map.org/

FEMA GeoPlatform Implementation


FEMA GeoPlatform Navigation


FEMA GeoPlatform Example: Marin County, CA


Other Regional Studies

– Adapting to Rising Tides

– Our Coast, Our Future

– SF PUC, Port of SF

– SF Bay Extreme Tides Study

– Northeast Rail Corridor Project


Proud Platinum Sponsor

of the ASFPM 2017

Annual Conference

Thank youfor participating!

ASFPM 2017 Annual Conference “FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE HEARTLAND” Kansas City, Missouri, April 30–May 5

Kristen MacDougall, CFM

[email protected]

Looking to the Future: San Francisco Bay Increased ... · Project Team –FEMA and Contractor...

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