Looking for Leverage: Key Tasks and Policies

Working Poor Families ProjectAcademy on State Postsecondary Policy

Julie Strawn Center for Law and Social Policy

jstrawn@clasp.orgJune 2006

What this academy is about • Introduce you to key state policy issues and

ideas – emphasis here is on solutions

• Provide a chance to hear about experiences of peers who are already working on these issues

• Equip you with some resources for future work

• Lay the groundwork for working together in the future to help each other be more effective advocates for low income adults on postsecondary issues

Why focus on postsecondary?• Workers need mid-level skills―about a year’s

worth of technical education and a credential―to qualify for many family-supporting jobs

• Businesses need more workers with mid-level skills (one year certificates, Associate degrees)

• Can’t fix this only through high school reform

– E.g. WA state: no. of workers (age 18-45) with h.s. ed. or less = the next 10 years of high school graduating classes

• Current state policies are not effective in helping working adults to gain postsecondary credentials

Why focus on postsecondary?• Earnings and employment both increase with educational

attainment; spells of unemployment fall. Each year of college increases wages by 10%. (Rouse 2001)

• Premium paid by employers for college degree has nearly doubled in last two decades – from $5.24 in 1979 to $9.77 in 2001 (EPI, in 2001 dollars).

• Jobs requiring some sort of post-secondary credential are growing 60% faster than those requiring high school or less. By 2014 higher-skilled jobs will increase as a proportion of total US jobs to around 54%, up from 52%. (BLS)

• According to the 2004 Current Population Survey, 43 percent of adults between the ages of 25 and 64 have high school education or less. (Jenkins, 2006, from CPS data)

Education, Weekly Earnings and Unemployment, U.S. 2004

Source: Current Population Survey

$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900

$1,000

< 9th Grade HS Somecollege

AA Deg BA Deg

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%

Weekly Earnings Unemployment Rate

Slower growth in skilled workers—an opportunity?

• Native workforce is aging—no new net growth expected through 2020 in prime age workers

• The rapid growth in skills of the workforce seen over the last 20 years is expected to slow dramatically (Aspen Institute 2002).

• May create chance to bring lower skilled adults and youth into good jobs—if workforce education system has capacity to serve them successfully

• Big unknowns: retirement choices of baby boomers, numbers/skills of immigrants, future job skill requirements

Workers with education beyond high school

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Lab

or fo

rce,

in m

illio

ns

1980-2000, 138% growth 2000-2020, 19% growthSource: Grow Faster Together. Or Grow Slowly Apart. (2002) Washington, DC: The Aspen Institute.

Share of Workforce Growth Due to Immigration

10.2%

26.7%

50.3%

1970's 1980's 1990's

Source: Sum, A., Fogg, N., Harrington, P. with Khatiwada, I., Trubb’sky, M., and Palma, S. (2002, August). Immigrant Workers and the Great American Job Machine: The Contributions Of New Foreign Immigration to National and Regional Labor Force Growth in the 1990s. Boston, MA:  Northeastern University.

Key state policy tasks

1) Create a shared vision of state’s future and why increasing access for adults to postsecondary credentials is key to getting there

2) Set measurable goals for achieving that vision and ask whether funding flows in ways that support progress toward those goals

3) Put in place mechanisms that ensure workforce education offerings reflect the skills workers need to advance and businesses need to grow

Key state policy tasks 4) Track individual outcomes across workforce

education services and into the labor market to identify trouble spots and document successful approaches

5) Fix the leaky pipeline of adults into and through postsecondary workforce education

6) Support access and success for nontraditional students

7) Fund continuous innovation to better meet worker and business needs

Creating a shared vision and goals1) Create a shared vision of state’s future and

why increasing access for adults to post-secondary credentials is key to getting there• Narrative of problem may be different for each of you, e.g.

“CO Paradox” state has good jobs but imports skilled labor; In many Midwest states, it’s about having a skilled workforce to compete for new knowledge jobs

• Clear message about what needs done. E.g. KY’s Education Pays/Go Higher, OH Gov.’s goal of 30% increase in postsecondary enrollment, MI Gov.’s goal of double the numbers of college graduates

KY GoHigher ad

• http://www.collegeaccessmarketing.org/galleryimages/003_lg.jpg

Creating a shared vision and goals2) Set measurable goals for achieving that vision and

ask whether funding flows in ways that support progress toward those goals.

– E.g. GoHigher goals and progress reports

– How does state funding for workforce education services compare to demand for services and cost of services? Contrast funding for adult ed./ESL, noncredit and for-credit workforce education., college remedial education.

– Do other funding streams support these goals? Look at both policies and expenditures in student aid, TANF, WIA, incumbent worker and customized trg. programs, economic development, and child care

KY Example: GoHigher Progress Measures• Question 1- Are more Kentuckians ready for

postsecondary education?

• Question 2- Is Kentucky postsecondary education affordable to its citizens?

• Question 3- Do more Kentuckians have certificates and degrees?

• Question 4- Are college graduates prepared for life and work in Kentucky?

• Question 5- Are Kentucky's people, communities and economy benefiting?

Getting businesses and workers what they need

3) Put in place mechanisms to ensure workforce education offerings reflect the skills workers need to advance and businesses need to grow

– Nothing automatic about postsecondary education translating into either good jobs or competitive businesses

– E.g. Career Pathways, MI Regional Skill Alliances, IL Critical Skills Shortage Initiative, WA Skill Panels and Centers of Excellence, GA Statewide Skills Certifications.

4) Track individual outcomes across workforce education services and into the labor market to identify trouble spots and document successful approaches

Annual Supply and Demand for Prepared Workers by Education Level*

- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

Mid Level Preparation*(Includes Associates Level

Baccalaureate

Masters

Professional

Doctorate

Long Preparation (Sum ofBaccalaureate - Doctorate)

Workforce Supply

Entry Demand

Ultimate Demand

* Mid-level supply is based on 2002-2003 data. Other levels 2003-2004. Demand is based on the projected annual average number of job openings 2007-2012

WA Example: “Tipping Point” as frame• WA study: “tipping point” for substantial earnings

payoff from college is at least 30 vocational credits plus a credential. Other research supports this. – $2,700 and $1,700 more per year (respectively) for workforce students entering

with high school diploma or GED – Even larger increases for lower skilled students and those with limited English;

ESL students earn $7,000 more per year and ABE students $8,500 more annually

• By contrast those in short-term customized training don’t gain enough skills to reach tipping point– Earn $3,800 less per year than those who reach the tipping point; $6,800 less per

year if they started from ABE. (SBCTC, 2005, outcomes for 35,000 students)

• “Tipping point” workers need = mid-level skills employers need

• Redirect $’s to support this—New Opportunity Grants pilot, enhanced FTE for I-BEST

Median Annual Earnings for CCC CalWORKs Women Leaving with Associate Degrees by Vocational Program

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

Business Admin.Assistant

Computer Nursing/Dental

Lifespan Social Services

Med

ian

An

nu

al E

arn

ing

s

First Year Out

Second Year Out

Fixing the leaky pipeline• Lack of alignment of goals and content between adult

ed/ESL, college remediation, and non-credit and credit workforce education

• Low rate of transitions from adult ed/ESL and college remediation. into for-credit programs

• Few adult education and developmental education students ever complete enough postsecondary workforce education to pay off in labor market

• For lower skilled adults obtaining marketable credentials takes too long, especially given competing work and family responsibilities

• Adults who complete noncredit occupational programs often find that work does not connect to degrees

Community College Adult Basic Skills Education Outcomes

(Prince and Jenkins, 2005)

Source: Prince & Jenkins (forthcoming).

Five-Year Highest Attainment of Adult Basic Skills Students Who Started at a WA Community or Technical College

By Initial Program Type

9%

62%

16%7% 4% 1%0%

87%

7%2% 3% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

GED No CollegeCredits

< 10 Credits 10-44Credits

Certificate AssociateDegree

ABE

ESL

Percent of adult ed./ESL going on to college

0

20

40

60

80

100

AR KY LA OH OR US

All students Students with college goal

Increasing access and successBarriers to access and success for low income

adults:

• Lack of confidence and personal support

• Lower skills and/or limited English

• Limited exposure to career possibilities

• Financial and logistical barriers

• Difficulty of navigating complex bureaucracies

• Juggling work, family and school

Affordability

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

AR KY LA OH OR TopStates

Share of income needed for net CC costs, bottom 1/5 of families, 2004

Share of income needed for net CC costs, all families, 2004

State spending on need-based fin. aid as % of fed. spending, 2004

Community College Degree Program Education Outcomes

(Prince and Jenkins, 2005)

Source: Beginning Postsecondary Students (BPS:96-01). Authors’ calculations.

Six-Year Highest Educational Attainment of Students who Started at a Community College in 1995-96

By Age at Enrollment

39%

8%

17%

9%14% 13%

60%

17%11%

6% 4% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

NotEnrolled

(No Degree)

Certificate AssociateDegree

StillEnrolled

(No Degree)

Transfer(No Degree)

Bachelor'sDegree

Ages 18-24

Ages 25-64

Venture capital for innovation7) Fund continuous innovation to better meet

worker and business needs• WIA performance and Gov.’s discretionary funds• Perkins and Adult Ed. state leadership funds• TANF funds• Incumbent worker/customized training funds• Economic development funds• Private foundation grants and federal grants

• Fund innovation in ways that make it sustainable, so it doesn’t go away when grants do—what’s the business model?