Long/Short Equity - Advisorlynx · Top-Down Macro-Economic Investment Analysis ... to a market...

15
Long/Short Equity Ascentia Macro Long/Short Investment Strategy | April 2011

Transcript of Long/Short Equity - Advisorlynx · Top-Down Macro-Economic Investment Analysis ... to a market...

Long/Short Equity

Ascentia Macro Long/Short Investment Strategy | April 2011

Introduction

The decades of the 80s and 90s produced historically attractive investment returns while

utilizing ‘traditional’ asset allocation models that focused on ‘style box’ diversification and

‘buy and hold’ strategies.

The financial crisis of 2008 that capped off a decade of ‘lost returns’ has caused the financial

industry to implement new asset allocation models that are designed to increase portfolio

diversification and reduce volatility.

To achieve these goals, asset managers and investors have turned to ‘alternative strategies’

designed to produce ‘non-correlated’ returns, with liquidity and full transparency.

Evolution of Asset Allocation

Risk

Return

Past performance is not indicative of future results

For informational purposes only.

Investment Philosophy

We believe that attractive risk-adjusted

returns are delivered with a disciplined

investment process focused on:

Top-Down Macro-Economic Investment Analysis

Technical and Fundamental Risk Monitoring

Asset Class Diversification

Active Risk Management

Macro Investment Themes

Asset Class Forecasts

Sectors / Regions

Industries

Stocks

The Ascentia Macro Long Short Strategy is designed for investors seeking:

Long Term Capital Appreciation

Capital Preservation in Bear Market Environments

Reduced or Lower Volatility

Low Correlation to Broad Market Indices

A ‘Complement’ to Long Only Investment Strategies

Investment Objectives

Investment Process

1. Evaluate Macro Economic Investment Environment

Secular Market (Bull/Bear) & Cyclical Market (Bull/Bear) Durations

Asset Class Analysis

Region, Country, and Sector Outlooks

2. Determine Optimal Portfolio Exposure

Fundamental Analysis

Technical Analysis

Bull/Bear Gauge guides ‘net’ exposure

3. Construct Portfolio

Productive Trends and Relative Strength

Sector and Region Limits

Single Position Limits

4. Actively Manage Risk

Maintain Asset Class Diversification

Ongoing Attribution Analysis

Hedge Exposure when Indicators Deteriorate

1. Evaluate Macro-Economic Investment Environment

Global Market Assessment:

Maturity of Secular Bull and Bear Markets

• Are these markets young or mature

Maturity of Cyclical Bull and Bear Markets

• Are these markets young or mature

Top Down Research

Investment Themes & Catalysts

Asset Class Forecasts

Regional Strength

Sector Outlook

2. Determine Optimal Portfolio Exposure

Real Interest Rates – Bearish (10%)

Credit Spreads – Bullish (5%)

Economic Models – Bearish (10%)

Stock Ratings- Bullish (5%)

Environmental Risk – Bullish (10%)

Crowd Sentiment – Bearish (10%)

Medium -Term Trend – Bullish (10%)

Long-Term Trend – Bullish (10%)

Volatility Model – Bullish (10%)

Market Timing – Bearish (10%)

Market Breadth – Bullish (5%)

Market Internals – Bullish (5%)

Fundamental Models

Technical Models

0% Long Exposure(Full Hedges)

Partial Exposure(Partial Hedges)

100% Long Exposure(No Hedges)

Bearish 60%

Bearish 10% Bullish 40%

Bullish 90%

Bullish 100% Bearish 100% Bullish 65%

Bearish 35%

Sample Illustrations. Subject to change without notice.

For informational purposes only.

Bull / Bear Gauge

3. Construct Portfolio

1000+

400+

50

8-12

Investment Universe : Exchange Listed ETFs (1000+)

Liquidity Filter: 20 day average daily volume > $5,000,000 (400+)

Systematic ETF Ranking: (approx. 50)

Ranking based upon:

•Short-Term and Long-Term Trend Strength

•Mean Reversion Potential

•Seasonality Effects

•Asset Flows

Disciplined Selection: (8 – 12 ETFs)

The highest ranking ETFs are selected based upon macro economic

themes with respect to asset class, region, and sector diversification.

4. Actively Manage Risk

Active Risk Management

Top-Down Process Monitors ‘market-level’ Risk

ETF Diversification minimizes ‘stock specific’ risk

Asset Class Diversification Reduces Volatility and Correlation

Daily Analysis of Value at Risk (VaR), Portfolio Beta, and Performance Attribution

Weekly Evaluation of Portfolio Themes and Drivers

Portfolio ‘Hedging’ in Adverse Market Conditions to Mitigate Drawdowns

“The essence of investment management is the management of risks,

not the management of returns.”Benjamin Graham

Current Holdings and Exposures

Portfolio assets are spread across 8 -12 ETFs representing more than 300 stocks For Illustrative Purposes Only. All Data is subject to change without notice.Sample Exposures as of 03.31.2011 and subject to change without notice.

10.5%

9.8%

9.7%

9.5%

7.7%

9.8%7.8%

4.9%

4.9%

5%

4.8%

13.3%

8.9%

Gold Miners

Healthcare

Industrial Sector

Technology Sector

Agribusiness

Canada

Singapore

Mexico

Taiwan

Emerging Currencies

Inverse Treasuries

Short S&P500

Cash

Macro Long/Short Portfolio Holdings

66.9%

18.1%

8.9%

Long Exposures

Short Exposures

Cash

Long / Short Exposures

15.70%

27.40%

4.80%

18.20%

5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

Do

mes

tic

Equ

ity

Fore

ign

Eq

uit

y

Fixe

d In

com

e

(In

vesr

e)

Co

mm

od

ity

Cu

rren

cy

Net Asset Class Exposures

Performance

Past performance is not an indicator of future results. Inception 05.2004 – 03.2011 Please see full performance disclosure – next page.

Performance Disclosure

Performance figures include the actual performance of the Ascentia Macro Long Short model portfolio tracked by Foliofn, an independent onlinebrokerage custodian and financial software provider. The model portfolio does not represent any specific client portfolio. The model portfoliorepresents an investment model of separate portfolios managed by Ascentia Capital Partners, LLC that track the model portfolio. Performance figuresthat are gross of fees do not reflect the deduction of any advisory fees and/or brokerage fees. Performance fees that are net of fees take into accountthe maximum advisory fee charged by Ascentia Capital and the standard brokerage costs charged by Foliofn. Actual investment management fees mayvary by individual account and the performance of a specific individual client account may vary substantially from the model results. Performance resultsinclude the reinvestment of dividends. Any other trading commissions, regulatory fees, or other fees paid by clients are not considered when calculatingpast performance. Foliofn uses a time-weighted performance measure known as the Modified Dietz method. All calculations are based on informationobtained from sources we believe to be accurate, but we cannot guarantee the accuracy of such information. Performance results include only thoseaccounts held at Foliofn that track the Ascentia Macro Trend model portfolio. Accounts held at another brokerage firm may experience differentperformance results. Performance figures prior to June 2005 were achieved using the same investment objectives, utilizing similar policies andstrategies, and managed solely by a former Ascentia principal while at Legacy Advisors, LLC. The selected benchmarks are the S&P 500 Total ReturnIndex and the HFRX Equity Hedge Strategies as they represent a reasonable proxy of domestic equity and hedged equities respectively. Any comparisonto a market index is for comparative purposes only and does not imply any similarity between the model portfolio and the index. The S&P 500 TotalReturn index reflects reinvestment of dividends but does not reflect fees, brokerage commissions, or other expenses of investing. The model portfoliosand strategies are not a substitute for personalized investment advice and investors should consult with an experienced financial advisor beforeinvesting.

The HFRX Equity Hedge Index maintains positions both long and short in primarily equity and equity derivative securities. A wide variety of investmentprocesses can be employed to arrive at an investment decision, including both quantitative and fundamental techniques; strategies can be broadlydiversified or narrowly focused on specific sectors and can range broadly in terms of levels of net exposure, leverage employed, holding period,concentrations of market capitalizations and valuation ranges of typical portfolios. Equity Hedge managers would typically maintain at least 50%, andmay in some cases be substantially entirely invested in equities, both long and short. Hedge Fund Research, Inc. (HFR) utilizes a UCITSIII compliantmethodology to construct the HFRX Hedge Fund Indices. The methodology is based on defined and predetermined rules and objective criteria to selectand rebalance components to maximize representation of the Hedge Fund Universe. HFRX Indices utilize state-of-the-art quantitative techniques andanalysis; multi-level screening, cluster analysis, Monte-Carlo simulations and optimization techniques ensure that each Index is a pure representation ofits corresponding investment focus. Full strategy and regional descriptions (multi-language), as well as the full “HFRX Hedge Fund Indices DefinedFormulaic Methodology” may be downloaded at www.HedgeFundResearch.com. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is noindication of future performance.

This material has been prepared for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to

buy or sell any security or instrument, or to participate in any investment strategy. This material does not purport to summarize or

contain all of the provisions that would be set forth in any offering memorandum. Any purchase or sale of any securities may be

made only pursuant to a final offering memorandum and/or prospectus. The information contained in this material should not be

construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security, or to participate in any investment strategy. It does not

have regard to specific investment objectives, financial situations, or the particular needs of any specific entity or person. Investors

should make their own appraisal of the risks and should seek their own financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing

in any securities or participating in any investment strategy. While the information (including any historical returns) in this material

has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, neither Ascentia Capital Partners, LLC nor its affiliates guarantee its accuracy,

timeliness, or completeness. Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment on this date and are subject to

change without notice. All performances showed in this material are based on historical data and may reflect certain assumptions

with respect to fees, expenses, taxes, capital charges, allocations and other factors that affect the computation of returns. These

figures may also be unaudited and subject to material change. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Disclosure

Ascentia Capital Partners, LLC

Email: [email protected]

www.AscentiaFunds.com

Contact Information