Long Wave - 06-09-12 - The Great Gamble

THE GREAT GAMBLE

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This chart is from the JUNE 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportJune 9th, 2012

http://www.gordontlong.com/LONGWave.asp



BERNANKE BOX


• ELECTION YEAR: This is an election year and the Federal Reserve has traditionally ALWAYS done everything in its power during the run up to the election to support the incumbent President. It is considered a "privilege of office" and you can bet Obama is both counting on and expecting it!

• QE III WILL NOT WORK: Unconventional policy is effective when the issue is Systemic Stress however it is less so when Growth is the concern. Central bank liquidity can lubricate a private sector in seizure but then becomes limited! Bernanke and his minions at the Federal Reserve are acutely aware of this. It is the wrong tool at the wrong time.

• GLOBAL PRESSURES: Chairman "Helicopter Ben" Bernanke as a pivotal board member of the Bank of International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland (the central bank to the central banks) has tremendous pressures to conform to the agenda of this small cadre of central planners . Bernanke knows the American standard must be subjugated for the larger good of what these unelected central bankers deem, behind opaque closed doors, to be the urgent solution for an escalating and unstoppable global financial crisis.




ELECTION YEAR





QE III WON’T WORK!


"Unconventional policy is effective when the issue is Systemic Stress; It is less so when Growth is the concern"

Central bank liquidity can lubricate a private sector in seizure but then is limited!

"Deleveraging cycles mute the effect of monetary policy on growth."




QE III WON’T WORK!





GLOBAL PRESSURES





COLLATERAL CONTAGION





Market Fragility





Credit Markets – Systemic Risk





Pavlovian Response





Goldman Sach’s Global Swirlogram





Earnings Deceleration





Slower Payroll Growth





CONTRACTING PE RATIOS





DATES TO WATCH





DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USE

THE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Term of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility.

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THE GREAT GAMBLE



Long Wave - 06-09-12 - The Great Gamble

Economy & Finance

Transcript of Long Wave - 06-09-12 - The Great Gamble