Long-term disequilibrium and short-term equilibrium dynamics in West Indian biogeography
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Transcript of Long-term disequilibrium and short-term equilibrium dynamics in West Indian biogeography
Long-term disequilibrium and short-term equilibrium dynamics in West Indian biogeography
Liliana M. Dávalos Ecology and Evolution, SUNY at Stony Brook Amy L. Russell Biology, Grand Valley State University
Equilibrium vs. disequilibrium
Cracra2 1983 Syst. Biol. M&W 1963 Evolu.on
Dynamic equilibrium
ETIB Preston 1962 Ecology
Disequilibrium
Iturralde Vinent & MacPhee 1999 Bull. Amer. Mus. Nat Hist.
How to test disequilibrium? • ETIB lineage accumulaKon
as a funcKon of Kme – FiNed line
• Species = f(S arriving + speciaKon – exKncKon)
• Lineages = f(S arriving)
Ricklefs & Bermingham 2001 Science
Equilibrium and disequilibrium in colonizaKon The image cannot be displayed. Your computer may not have enough memory to open the image, or the image may have been corrupted. Restart your computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, you may have to delete the image and then insert it again.
Dumont, Dávalos 2012 PRS-‐B
Also: Stadelmann et al. 2007 Dávalos 2010
Very long-‐term disequilibrium
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10 20 30 40 50Time in millions of years
Num
ber o
f lin
eage
s
Figure 6
Colonization ratesSingle rate modelTwo-rate slowTwo-rate fast
Natalidae colonization event
Changes more recently
Dávalos & Turvey 2012 Bones, Clones & Biomes
Buckets of Caribbean fossils
Why they went exKnct • CompeKKon by other
invasive bats – Koopman & Williams 1951
• Cave flooding – Morgan 2001
• Interglacial floods – McFarlane & Lundberg 2004
• Anthropogenic habitat destrucKon – Gannon et al. 2005
Can area change explain species loss?
Dávalos & Russell 2012 Ecology & Evolu.on
Change in area explains most change in species richness
Log of present/LGM area in the Greater Antilles
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Log of present/LGM area in the Bahamas
Log
of p
rese
nt/L
GM
spe
cies
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R2 = 0.83 R2 = 0.85
Room for addiKonal work
Observed species richness Greater Antilles
1
2.5
6.3
16
1 1.6 2.5 4.0 6.3 10 16 25
25
10
4.0
1.6
Perfect
prediction
Figure 4Observed species richness Bahamas
Pre
dic
ted
ric
hn
ess
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1.6
2.5
4.0
1 1.6 2.5 4.0
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6.4
How to answer the right quesKon
• Equilibrium null model • StaKsKcal framework for tesKng long-‐term paNerns – Requires mulKple colonizaKon/exKncKon events
– Floor on biodiversity required to apply widely
– ExKncKon?
Drawing by A. Tejedor