Long Range Weather Forecast - End Aug 2016
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METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH GROUP INDIA HEADQUARTERS G 31 Quest Offices DLF Golf Course Road Gurgaon 122 002 India GLOBAL RESEARCH CENTER SIDBI Innovation Center Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur 208 016 India NORTH AMERICA 350 Fifth Avenue 59 th Floor, New York City NY 10118 USA Monsoon and Temperature Outlook End Aug 2016
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Transcript of Long Range Weather Forecast - End Aug 2016
METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH GROUP
INDIA HEADQUARTERS
G 31 Quest Off ices
DLF Golf Course Road
Gurgaon 122 002 India
GLOBAL RESEARCH CENTER
SIDBI Innovation Center
Indian Inst itute of Technology
Kanpur 208 016 India
NORTH AMERICA
350 Fif th Avenue
59 th Floor, New York City
NY 10118 USA
Monsoon and Temperature OutlookEnd Aug 2016
• As per IRI/CPC outlook during mid-August 2016 the tropical Pacific SSTanomaly was close to -0.5C, approaching the weak La Niña threshold.Most ENSO prediction models indicate SSTs most likely near the borderlineof cool-neutral and weak La Niña (average Nino-3.4 index less than orequal to -0.5 deg. C) from the present through fall and into winter, withabout 55-60% chance.
• The latest NOAA/CPC CFSv2 ensemble model products dated 26 August2016 indicate that the monthly cumulative rainfall during September islikely to be moderately on the negative side of the normal over most partsof the country except east and northeast India where it is expected to beon the positive side.
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
Source: http://iri.columbia.edu
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
End-Aug IRI/CPC Model-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Sep Oct Nov
All India
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
% anomaly of forecast monthly Rainfall
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Sep Oct Nov
NW India
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
% anomaly of forecast monthly Rainfall
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sep Oct Nov
East & NE India
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
% anomaly of forecast monthly Rainfall
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Sep Oct Nov
Central India
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
% anomaly of forecast monthly Rainfall
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep Oct Nov
S Peninsula
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
% anomaly of forecast monthly Rainfall
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
Rainfall anomaly (%) Sep 2016 based on 201608ens cfsv2
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
Rainfall anomaly (%) Oct 2016 based on 201608ens cfsv2
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
Rainfall anomaly (%) Nov 2016 based on 201608ens cfsv2
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
Max. Temperature Sep 2016 based on 201608ens cfsv2
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
Max. Temperature Oct 2016 based on 201608ens cfsv2
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
Max. Temperature Nov 2016 based on 201608ens cfsv2
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
Min. Temperature Sep 2016 based on 201608ens cfsv2
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
Min. Temperature Oct 2016 based on 201608ens cfsv2
S Y N O P S I S C H AR T S
Min. Temperature Nov 2016 based on 201608ens cfsv2
METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH GROUP
INDIA HEADQUARTERS
G 31 Quest Off ices
DLF Golf Course Road
Gurgaon 122 002 India
GLOBAL RESEARCH CENTER
SIDBI Innovation Center
Indian Inst itute of Technology
Kanpur 208 016 India
NORTH AMERICA
350 Fif th Avenue
59 th Floor, New York City
NY 10118 USA
THANK YOU
Monsoon and Temperature OutlookEnd Aug 2016
