Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is...
Transcript of Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is...
Long Brookfield Residential (BRP) Short Standard Pacific (SPF)
Investment Recommendation
BROOKFIELD
BUY BRP $8.07
Price Target (12 mo) $11.26
Return 40%
2
STANDARD PACIFIC
SELL SPF $3.13
Price Target (12 mo) $1.66
Return 47%
Recommendation Summary • Buying BRP takes advantage of a strong Canadian housing market
• Shorting SPF hedges out the uncertain US housing market
• Both are mispriced fundamentally and relative to peers given anticipated operational performance
Investment Recommendation
BROOKFIELD
BUY BRP $8.07
Price Target (12 mo) $11.26
Return 40%
3
STANDARD PACIFIC
SELL SPF $3.13
Price Target (12 mo) $1.66
Return 47%
Why Are They Mispriced? • BRP is underfollowed and intrinsic value is not fully recognized by the
market due to recent merger
• SPF faces a tough operating environment and margin compression
• Catalysts:
1. BRP reporting first full-year consolidated earnings since recent merger
2. BPR receiving analyst coverage
3. Impact of FHA Loan Limit Reductions impacting SPF in 2H 2012
MACRO OVERVIEW
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Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Feeble Employment Recovery in the U.S.
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Job loss from peak
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - nonfarm payrolls seasonally adjusted,T2 Partners LLC
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
U.S. Existing Homes Inventory Still Elevated
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Source: National Association of Realtors
(Note: not including foreclosed homes sold via auction)
Existing Homes Inventory (mm)
Inventory still ~1mm above pre-2005 levels
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Differing Stories in Housing Starts
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U.S. Housing Starts Canada Housing Starts
Canada is not stuck in a prolonged slow recovery like the US
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Canada Maintained Conservative Lending Practices
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Prime Mortgage Default Rates
Subprime Mortgage Default Rates
Source: Canadian Bankers Association, The Mortgage Bankers Association, DBRS
~14x
~13x
Canadian Differences: • “Private Label” mortgages
only 3% of market vs. 40% of U.S. market
• Full recourse to the borrower
• Mortgage insurance is required on LTV >80%
• Shorter loan terms
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Canada is on strong economic footing
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• Lowest Net Debt to GDP (35%) in G7 • Suffered less severe recession • Stable projected growth
Canada Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Projections (YoY)
BROOKFIELD RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES
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Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Brookfield Residential Properties (BRP) - LONG
• Undervalued North American homebuilder trading at a discount to peers
• Asset quality and geographic mix provide stable earnings
• Strong operators with proven performance through the cycle
• Downside protection from largest shareholder
• Misunderstood due to recent merger and no analyst coverage
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Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
BRP Stock Price
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Price $8.07 LTM Revenue $943MM
52 Week High - Low $14.32 – 6.08 LTM Net Income $98MM
Market Cap $817MM P/BV 0.9x
$0.0
$2.0
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$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11
BRP: Stock Price Since Inception (4/4/2011)
Since Inception Performance: -34%
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
BRP Overview
• Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled lots
• $2.5B in assets in 10 markets over three regions: Canada, California and Central & Eastern U.S.
• Average home selling price of $364,000
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YTD Revenue by Region
74%
19%
7% Canada
California
Central & Eastern US
LTM Lots by Location
52%
20%
28% Canada
California
Central & Eastern US
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
BRP Strategy
• Acquires and develops residential real estate in growth markets with potential for job creation
• Creates value through master planning, entitling and building homes in existing communities and by selling lots to third-party builders
• Lot sales gross margins have been very strong historically, and are 39% YTD
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Lots Balance as of 09/30/11
Book
Lots Value
Land & Land Under Development 99,423 1,910$
Optioned Lots 8,537 89
Housing Inventory 1,303 260
Model Homes 102 29
Unconsolidated Entity Debt - (17)
Total Lots 109,365 2,288
YTD Lot Sale Margins
Lot Sales
Revenue
Total Lot Closings 1,389
Revenue 206$
Direct Cost of Sales (125)
Gross Margin 81
% Margin 39%
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Strong US Operators
• US operations has historically performed better than US peers on a ROE basis
• Exposure to strong US markets mitigated losses during the housing crisis
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Annual ROE – 2001 – 2010
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Brookfield Residential Properties Median - US Homebuilders
US Lots by Location
Total Lots % Total
Los Angeles 4,625 10.5%
San Diego 8,511 19.4%
Denver 10,711 24.4%
Austin 14,906 33.9%
Washington, D.C. 5,223 11.9%
Total 43,976 100.0%
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Resilient Canadian Operations
• Operates in the Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto markets
• Maintained strong margin performance during the recession
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Canada Lots by Location
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
2008 2009 2010
Gross Margins EBIT Margins Net Income Margins
Margins – 2008 – 2010
Total Lots % Total
Calgary 29,779 53%
Edmonton 17,530 31%
Toronto 9,366 17%
Canada Total 56,675 100%
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Merger Summary
• BRP created by merging Brookfield Home Corporation with Brookfield Office Properties residential business based in Canada
– Total consideration of the deal was $1.2B, or approximately 1.3x book value
• Common owner Brookfield Asset Management emerged with 72% of equity in Brookfield
• Management responsible for value creation from both organizations remained with the combined company and are properly incentivized
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Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
BRP Valuation
• Target price of $11.26 offers 40% upside from current trading levels
– Derived from DCF valuation
• Potential upside of 35% from increasing current multiple from 0.9x to competitor’s average multiple of 1.2x
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Comparable Price / Book Multiples
Valuation Summary
Gross Price /
Company Ticker Margin BV
Lennar LEN 20.8% 1.3x
Toll Brothers TOL 15.2% 1.3x
Standard Pacific SPF 22.2% 1.0x
Meritage Homes MTH 18.5% 1.3x
M & I Homes MHO 17.0% 0.9x
Average 18.7% 1.2X
Median 18.5% 1.3X
Brookfield Residential Properties BRP 27.0% 0.9x
Value of Operating Assets of the firm = 2,440.03
Value of Cash & Non-operating assets= $1 Housing Recovery Year
Value of Firm = 2,441.31 2014 $13.61
- Value of Outstanding Debt = $1,300 2015 $12.25
Value of Equity = 1,141.61 2016 $11.26
# of Shares (diluted) 101.3 2017 $10.73
2018 $12.40
Fair Value Per Share 11.26$
Current Price $8.07
Price Appreciation 39.6%
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
BRP – Fair Value
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$0.0
$5.0
$10.0
$15.0
$20.0
$25.0
Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15
Bull: $14.75 (83% Upside) • US Housing Market recovers by 2014 • 14% run-rate operating margins
Base: $11.26 (40% Upside) • US Housing Market recovers by 2016 • 13% run-rate operating margins
Bear: $8.54 (6% Upside) • US Housing Market recovers in 2018 • 7% run-rate operating margins
STANDARD PACIFIC CORP.
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Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Standard Pacific Company (SPF) - SHORT
• History of poor operating performance and weak risk management
– Management is betting on a near-term housing recovery
• Gross margins are falling and we expect them to fall further
• Overpriced based on long-term cash flow generation capacity
• Market has not fully appreciated the impact of the recent FHA loan limit reduction
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Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF – Stock Price
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$5.0
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$20.0
$25.0
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$35.0
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$50.0
Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11
SPF: 10-year Stock Price Returns
Price $3.13 LTM Revenue $812.1MM
52 Week (High – Low) $4.98 – 2.08 LTM Net Income ($11.7MM)
Market Cap $1.08B P/BV 1.1x
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF Overview
• Standard Pacific is one of the largest homebuilders in the U.S.
– New home communities concentrated in CA, FL, AZ, NC & SC, TX, CO, and NV
• Company also provides mortgage financing and title services
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Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Geographic Business Mix
• California is the majority of their revenues
• Revenues have declined by 76% from 2005 peak
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1,000
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2,000
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3,000
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4,000
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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Discontinued Operations
Nevada
Colorado
Arizona
Texas
Carolinas
Florida
California42%
17%
15%
14%
7%4%
1%
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF Strategy
• SPF concentrates on “move-up” buyers (62% of business)
• Average price of home is $343k vs median $249k
• CEO claims differentiation “We are striving to position ourselves up market”
• Company has no clear segment focus, company self-describes as “constructs homes within a wide range of price and size targeting a broad range of homebuyers”
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Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF – Capital Allocation Track Record
• SPF has consistently had a Return on Capital lower than Cost of Capital
• It required the largest US housing boom since the great depression to push them into positive value creation
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-2.0%
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Return on Capital (SMA 4 Quarters) Weighted Average Cost of Capital (SMA 4 Quarters)
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF – Capital Allocation Track Record
• SPF has successfully destroyed over $1bn of capital through their investments over the past 16 years
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(1,000.0)
(500.0)
-
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
BV of Equity corrected for Equtiy Issued / (Repurchased and Dividends)
BV of Capital Corrected for Total Capital Raised / (Repaid)
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF is Investing Heavily in Land & Inventory
• SPF has grown inventory by $466mm in the past 7 quarters (45%)
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Sales
Non cash Working Capital Significant recent investment in
inventory
444 408 410 380 416 454 371
587 649 742 802 877
929 972
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400
600
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1Q 2010 2Q 2010 3Q 2010 4Q 2010 1Q 2011 2Q 2011 3Q 2011
Finished Homes and CIP Land Under Development Inv. Not Owned
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF - Gross Margins are Falling
• SPF gross margins have recovered more than peers over past 2-3 years
• We expect margins to continue falling due to SPF’s higher capitalized interest
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0%
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Mar
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Capitalized Interest as % of Inventory
SPF Median
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35.0%
Mar
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Gross Margins: SPF vs. Peers
SPF SPF Estimate Median
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
FHA Loan Limit Changes
• New guidelines on October 1st, 2011
• New ceiling limit will be reduced from $729,750 to $625,500
• Move-up buyers will be more affected by the change – SPF is further affected due to its concentration in high-cost markets
• So how many SPF homes does this affect? – “Approximately 8% of our loans closed in Q3 2011 were above the new FHA or
Conventional loan limits”
– We believe this will increase as the affect of recent purchases flows through
30
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF – Relative Valuation
31
• Relative Valuation is tough – need to look far out for meaningful comps
• Book Value is tough to judge – have to rely on management mark to market judgment
Relative Valuation Market Cap
Enterprise
Value
Price / Tangible
Book NTM P/E 2012 P/E
EV / 2013 EBIT
Adj
Average Price of
Home
MDC Holdings Inc. 893.0 765.1 1.0x nm nm 6.8x $283,800
NVR Inc. 3,183.0 2,693.9 2.5x 22.4x 17.0x nm $297,100
Toll Brothers Inc. 3,267.5 3,734.3 1.3x 103.4x 60.0x 15.7x $565,000
Ryland Group Inc. 625.3 998.9 1.4x nm 32.3x 12.9x $242,000
KB Home 579.3 1,688.6 1.3x nm nm 31.2x $214,500
Lennar Corp. 3,297.8 6,949.5 1.3x 39.9x 24.1x 16.8x $243,000
PulteGroup, Inc. 2,139.7 4,332.6 1.2x nm 28.8x 10.7x $259,000
Meritage Homes 646.4 906.6 1.3x nm 31.2x 10.1x $254,200
DRHorton 3,646.8 4,324.1 1.4x 25.9x 14.6x nm $212,000
Brookfield Residential Properties Inc. 817.8 2,152.3 0.9x 8.1x 8.1x 9.9x $364,000
Median 1,516.4 2,423.1 1.3x 25.9x 26.5x 11.8x $256,600
Standard Pacific Corp.* 1,083.8 2,040.1 1.2x 27.3x 29.4x 36.1x $511,000
Implied Stock Price using Median $3.54 $2.96 $2.82 $1.03
Average: $2.59 *Tangible BV from analyst estimate
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF – Book Value Impairments
32
• We have doubts about SPF’s management marks
• The below shows total impairments as a % of 2006 inventory for the 5 homebuilders with home prices closest to SPF
0%
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15%
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40%
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Total Impairments as a % of 2006 Inventory
SPF US Equity Average of Direct Comps
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF – Intrinsic Valuation
33
Statistic Forecast Values
Trials 10,000
Base Case $1.66
Mean $1.54
Median $1.52
Standard Deviation
$1.25
Value of Operating Assets of the firm = $1,532 Year of Housing Recovery
Value of Cash & Non-operating assets= $420 2014 $2.41
Value of Firm = $1,952 2015 $2.12
- Value of Outstanding Debt = $1,377 2016 $1.66
Value of Equity = $575 2017 $1.40
# of Shares (diluted) 346.3 2018 $1.15
Fair Value Per Share 1.66$
Current Price $3.13
Price Appreciation (47.0%)
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF – Fair Value
34
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$2.0
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$4.0
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$8.0
Bear: $3.42 (-9%) • US Housing Market recovers by 2014 • 11% run-rate operating margins (historically 7.3%) • Inventory falls to 80% of Revenues (historically 137%)
Base: $1.66 (+47%) • US Housing Market recovers by 2016 • 10% run-rate operating margins (historically 7.3%) • Inventory falls to 84% of Revenues (historically 137%)
Bull: $0.00 (+100%) • US Housing Market recovers in 2018 • 9% run-rate operating margins (historically 7.3%) • Inventory falls to 100% of Revs (historically 137%)
CONCLUSION
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Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Great Operator / Weak US Operator
36
*LTM data for BRP includes Canadian Operations
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acif
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ROE LTM
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Great US Operator / Weak US Operator
37
*LTM data for BRP includes Canadian Operations
-150.0%
-100.0%
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0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 LTM
Return on Equity
Brookfield Residential Properties (US Operations) Standard Pacific Group
SPF Average: (10.6%)
BRP Average: 18.3%
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Deep Value / Overvalued
BRP is underpriced by 40%
38
Value of Operating Assets of the firm = 2,440.03
Value of Cash & Non-operating assets= $1 Housing Recovery Year
Value of Firm = 2,441.31 2014 $13.61
- Value of Outstanding Debt = $1,300 2015 $12.25
Value of Equity = 1,141.61 2016 $11.26
# of Shares (diluted) 101.3 2017 $10.73
2018 $12.40
Fair Value Per Share 11.26$
Current Price $8.07
Price Appreciation 39.6%
Value of Operating Assets of the firm = $1,532 Housing Recovery Year
Value of Cash & Non-operating assets= $420 2014 $2.41
Value of Firm = $1,952 2015 $2.12
- Value of Outstanding Debt = $1,377 2016 $1.66
Value of Equity = $575 2017 $1.40
# of Shares (diluted) 346.3 2018 $1.15
Fair Value Per Share 1.66$
Current Price $3.13
Price Appreciation (47.0%)
SPF is overpriced by 47%
Using same macroeconomic assumptions:
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Click on a state to change color
Geographical Overlay
• A great geographical hedge on the US housing market
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Summary: Long BRP, Short SPF
• Opportunity to hedge out macro US housing risk
• Benefit from investing with a strong operator and shorting a weak operator
• EDGE: BRP is completely uncovered, recently underwent a complex transaction, and has not reported full-year financial data
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Recommended Trading Strategy: Short 1 share of SPF for every 2 shares long of BRP
APPENDIX
41
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
BRP Holders
42
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF Holders
43
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF – Capital Allocation Track Record
• ROE was considerably better until 2007… and then the impact of high financial leverage in a cyclical industry became apparent
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Mar
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ROE COE
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF Performance vs. Index
45
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11
SPF: 10-year Stock Price Returns
SPF Industry Average
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF – Additional Information
0
50
100
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250
1Q 2010
2Q 2010
3Q 2010
4Q 2010
1Q 2011
2Q 2011
3Q 2011
4Q 2011
1Q 2012
2Q 2012
3Q 2012
4Q 2012
Community Count
46
Lots Owned & Controlled 26,826
Lots Controlled (5,392)
JV Lots (1,295)
Lots Owned 20,139
Owned lots held for sale (3,668)
Owned lots for future development 16,471
Lots held for future development (2,803)
Owned lots - Actively selling or under development 13,668
Years Supply (based on TTM deliveries) 5.8x
Beginning backlog 781
Beginning backlog scheduled to close in quarter 497
Cancellations from beginning backlog (11)
Closings moved to later date (66)
Sold & Closed in Quarter 277
Deliveries 697
Delivery Growth 16%
Community Count 159
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF – Financials
47
Year 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E
Revenues 1,549.2 1,179.5 924.9 871.9 1,088.7 1,148.6 1,211.8 1,333.0 1,732.9
Less: COGS 2,232.5 1,024.6 710.6 695.5 881.5 952.6 986.1 1,070.3 1,366.3
Less: SG&A 318.1 203.0 161.3 153.0 133.3 139.4 147.1 160.5 207.1
EBIT (1,001.4) (48.1) 53.0 23.5 59.5 56.6 78.6 102.2 159.4
Less: Interest Expense 10.4 47.5 41.8 27.9 22.6 31.8 27.9 26.7 22.6
Less: Taxes (5.5) (96.3) (0.6) 0.4 - - - - -
Net Income* ($1,006.3) $0.7 $11.8 ($4.9) $36.9 $24.7 $50.7 $75.5 $136.8
Diluted EPS (9.15) 0.00 0.03 (0.01) 0.11 0.07 0.15 0.22 0.40
Revenue Growth Rate YoY -46.7% -23.9% -21.6% -5.7% 24.9% 5.5% 5.5% 10.0% 30.0%
Gross Margin -45% 12% 22% 19% 18% 16% 18% 19% 20%
Operating Margin -65% -4% 6% 3% 5% 5% 6% 8% 9%
ROE -247% 0% 2% -1% 6% 4% 7% 9% 14%
ROC -31% -2% 2% 1% 3% 4% 5% 8% 11%
Debt Principle Due 50.9 0.9 6.3 29.8 260.4
Non-Cash Working Capital 1,401.7 1,091.3 1,190.1 1,613.1 1,789.1 1,880.0 2,217.6 2,742.7 2,844.0
NOL 1,742.2 1,837.8 1,826.5 1,831.0 1,794.1 1,769.3 1,718.6 1,643.1 1,506.2
# of Shares Outstanding 110.0 252.7 342.1 342.1 342.1 342.1 342.1 342.1 342.1
EBIT (1-t) (620.9) (29.8) 32.9 23.5 56.6 78.6 102.2 159.4 220.0
Reinvestment 934.8 306.9 (101.9) (179.0) (93.2) (339.4) (526.3) (101.9) (340.0)
FCFF 313.9 277.1 (69.0) (155.5) (36.7) (260.8) (424.1) 57.5 (120.1)
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF Analyst Consensus - Annual
48
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF Analyst Consensus - Quarterly
49
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
SPF Short Interest
50
Macro Overview
BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix
Revenue Assumptions
• Standard Pacific
• Brookfield Residential
51
Housing Recovery Year CAGR
2014 5.5% 20.0% 30.0% 30.0% 20.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 6.8%
2015 5.5% 10.0% 30.0% 40.0% 25.0% 15.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 8.4%
2016 5.5% 5.5% 10.0% 30.0% 40.0% 25.0% 10.0% 2.0% 2.0% 9.0%
2017 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 10.0% 30.0% 40.0% 25.0% 10.0% 2.0% 10.0%
2018 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 10.0% 30.0% 40.0% 25.0% 10.0% 11.2%
Housing Recovery Year CAGR
2014 10% 20% 20% 13% 8% 2% 2% 2% 2% 6%
2015 3% 10% 20% 20% 13% 8% 2% 2% 2% 6%
2016 3% 3% 10% 20% 20% 13% 8% 2% 2% 6%
2017 3% 3% 3% 10% 20% 20% 13% 8% 2% 6%
2018 3% 3% 3% 3% 10% 20% 20% 13% 8% 7%