Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is...

51
Long Brookfield Residential (BRP) Short Standard Pacific (SPF)

Transcript of Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is...

Page 1: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Long Brookfield Residential (BRP) Short Standard Pacific (SPF)

Page 2: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Investment Recommendation

BROOKFIELD

BUY BRP $8.07

Price Target (12 mo) $11.26

Return 40%

2

STANDARD PACIFIC

SELL SPF $3.13

Price Target (12 mo) $1.66

Return 47%

Recommendation Summary • Buying BRP takes advantage of a strong Canadian housing market

• Shorting SPF hedges out the uncertain US housing market

• Both are mispriced fundamentally and relative to peers given anticipated operational performance

Page 3: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Investment Recommendation

BROOKFIELD

BUY BRP $8.07

Price Target (12 mo) $11.26

Return 40%

3

STANDARD PACIFIC

SELL SPF $3.13

Price Target (12 mo) $1.66

Return 47%

Why Are They Mispriced? • BRP is underfollowed and intrinsic value is not fully recognized by the

market due to recent merger

• SPF faces a tough operating environment and margin compression

• Catalysts:

1. BRP reporting first full-year consolidated earnings since recent merger

2. BPR receiving analyst coverage

3. Impact of FHA Loan Limit Reductions impacting SPF in 2H 2012

Page 4: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

MACRO OVERVIEW

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Page 5: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Feeble Employment Recovery in the U.S.

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Job loss from peak

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - nonfarm payrolls seasonally adjusted,T2 Partners LLC

Page 6: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

U.S. Existing Homes Inventory Still Elevated

6

Source: National Association of Realtors

(Note: not including foreclosed homes sold via auction)

Existing Homes Inventory (mm)

Inventory still ~1mm above pre-2005 levels

Page 7: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Differing Stories in Housing Starts

7

U.S. Housing Starts Canada Housing Starts

Canada is not stuck in a prolonged slow recovery like the US

Page 8: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Canada Maintained Conservative Lending Practices

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Prime Mortgage Default Rates

Subprime Mortgage Default Rates

Source: Canadian Bankers Association, The Mortgage Bankers Association, DBRS

~14x

~13x

Canadian Differences: • “Private Label” mortgages

only 3% of market vs. 40% of U.S. market

• Full recourse to the borrower

• Mortgage insurance is required on LTV >80%

• Shorter loan terms

Page 9: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Canada is on strong economic footing

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• Lowest Net Debt to GDP (35%) in G7 • Suffered less severe recession • Stable projected growth

Canada Unemployment Rate (%) GDP Projections (YoY)

Page 10: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

BROOKFIELD RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES

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Page 11: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Brookfield Residential Properties (BRP) - LONG

• Undervalued North American homebuilder trading at a discount to peers

• Asset quality and geographic mix provide stable earnings

• Strong operators with proven performance through the cycle

• Downside protection from largest shareholder

• Misunderstood due to recent merger and no analyst coverage

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Page 12: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

BRP Stock Price

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Price $8.07 LTM Revenue $943MM

52 Week High - Low $14.32 – 6.08 LTM Net Income $98MM

Market Cap $817MM P/BV 0.9x

$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

$14.0

$16.0

Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11

BRP: Stock Price Since Inception (4/4/2011)

Since Inception Performance: -34%

Page 13: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

BRP Overview

• Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled lots

• $2.5B in assets in 10 markets over three regions: Canada, California and Central & Eastern U.S.

• Average home selling price of $364,000

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YTD Revenue by Region

74%

19%

7% Canada

California

Central & Eastern US

LTM Lots by Location

52%

20%

28% Canada

California

Central & Eastern US

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Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

BRP Strategy

• Acquires and develops residential real estate in growth markets with potential for job creation

• Creates value through master planning, entitling and building homes in existing communities and by selling lots to third-party builders

• Lot sales gross margins have been very strong historically, and are 39% YTD

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Lots Balance as of 09/30/11

Book

Lots Value

Land & Land Under Development 99,423 1,910$

Optioned Lots 8,537 89

Housing Inventory 1,303 260

Model Homes 102 29

Unconsolidated Entity Debt - (17)

Total Lots 109,365 2,288

YTD Lot Sale Margins

Lot Sales

Revenue

Total Lot Closings 1,389

Revenue 206$

Direct Cost of Sales (125)

Gross Margin 81

% Margin 39%

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Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Strong US Operators

• US operations has historically performed better than US peers on a ROE basis

• Exposure to strong US markets mitigated losses during the housing crisis

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Annual ROE – 2001 – 2010

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Brookfield Residential Properties Median - US Homebuilders

US Lots by Location

Total Lots % Total

Los Angeles 4,625 10.5%

San Diego 8,511 19.4%

Denver 10,711 24.4%

Austin 14,906 33.9%

Washington, D.C. 5,223 11.9%

Total 43,976 100.0%

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Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Resilient Canadian Operations

• Operates in the Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto markets

• Maintained strong margin performance during the recession

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Canada Lots by Location

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

2008 2009 2010

Gross Margins EBIT Margins Net Income Margins

Margins – 2008 – 2010

Total Lots % Total

Calgary 29,779 53%

Edmonton 17,530 31%

Toronto 9,366 17%

Canada Total 56,675 100%

Page 17: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Merger Summary

• BRP created by merging Brookfield Home Corporation with Brookfield Office Properties residential business based in Canada

– Total consideration of the deal was $1.2B, or approximately 1.3x book value

• Common owner Brookfield Asset Management emerged with 72% of equity in Brookfield

• Management responsible for value creation from both organizations remained with the combined company and are properly incentivized

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Page 18: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

BRP Valuation

• Target price of $11.26 offers 40% upside from current trading levels

– Derived from DCF valuation

• Potential upside of 35% from increasing current multiple from 0.9x to competitor’s average multiple of 1.2x

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Comparable Price / Book Multiples

Valuation Summary

Gross Price /

Company Ticker Margin BV

Lennar LEN 20.8% 1.3x

Toll Brothers TOL 15.2% 1.3x

Standard Pacific SPF 22.2% 1.0x

Meritage Homes MTH 18.5% 1.3x

M & I Homes MHO 17.0% 0.9x

Average 18.7% 1.2X

Median 18.5% 1.3X

Brookfield Residential Properties BRP 27.0% 0.9x

Value of Operating Assets of the firm = 2,440.03

Value of Cash & Non-operating assets= $1 Housing Recovery Year

Value of Firm = 2,441.31 2014 $13.61

- Value of Outstanding Debt = $1,300 2015 $12.25

Value of Equity = 1,141.61 2016 $11.26

# of Shares (diluted) 101.3 2017 $10.73

2018 $12.40

Fair Value Per Share 11.26$

Current Price $8.07

Price Appreciation 39.6%

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Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

BRP – Fair Value

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$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15

Bull: $14.75 (83% Upside) • US Housing Market recovers by 2014 • 14% run-rate operating margins

Base: $11.26 (40% Upside) • US Housing Market recovers by 2016 • 13% run-rate operating margins

Bear: $8.54 (6% Upside) • US Housing Market recovers in 2018 • 7% run-rate operating margins

Page 20: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

STANDARD PACIFIC CORP.

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Page 21: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Standard Pacific Company (SPF) - SHORT

• History of poor operating performance and weak risk management

– Management is betting on a near-term housing recovery

• Gross margins are falling and we expect them to fall further

• Overpriced based on long-term cash flow generation capacity

• Market has not fully appreciated the impact of the recent FHA loan limit reduction

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Page 22: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF – Stock Price

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$0.0

$5.0

$10.0

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$20.0

$25.0

$30.0

$35.0

$40.0

$45.0

$50.0

Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11

SPF: 10-year Stock Price Returns

Price $3.13 LTM Revenue $812.1MM

52 Week (High – Low) $4.98 – 2.08 LTM Net Income ($11.7MM)

Market Cap $1.08B P/BV 1.1x

Page 23: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF Overview

• Standard Pacific is one of the largest homebuilders in the U.S.

– New home communities concentrated in CA, FL, AZ, NC & SC, TX, CO, and NV

• Company also provides mortgage financing and title services

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Page 24: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Geographic Business Mix

• California is the majority of their revenues

• Revenues have declined by 76% from 2005 peak

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-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Discontinued Operations

Nevada

Colorado

Arizona

Texas

Carolinas

Florida

California42%

17%

15%

14%

7%4%

1%

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Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF Strategy

• SPF concentrates on “move-up” buyers (62% of business)

• Average price of home is $343k vs median $249k

• CEO claims differentiation “We are striving to position ourselves up market”

• Company has no clear segment focus, company self-describes as “constructs homes within a wide range of price and size targeting a broad range of homebuyers”

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Page 26: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF – Capital Allocation Track Record

• SPF has consistently had a Return on Capital lower than Cost of Capital

• It required the largest US housing boom since the great depression to push them into positive value creation

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-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Mar

-96

Au

g-9

6

Jan

-97

Jun

-97

No

v-9

7

Ap

r-9

8

Sep

-98

Feb

-99

Jul-

99

De

c-9

9

May

-00

Oct

-00

Mar

-01

Au

g-0

1

Jan

-02

Jun

-02

No

v-0

2

Ap

r-0

3

Sep

-03

Feb

-04

Jul-

04

De

c-0

4

May

-05

Oct

-05

Mar

-06

Au

g-0

6

Jan

-07

Jun

-07

No

v-0

7

Ap

r-0

8

Sep

-08

Feb

-09

Jul-

09

De

c-0

9

May

-10

Oct

-10

Mar

-11

Au

g-1

1

Return on Capital (SMA 4 Quarters) Weighted Average Cost of Capital (SMA 4 Quarters)

Page 27: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF – Capital Allocation Track Record

• SPF has successfully destroyed over $1bn of capital through their investments over the past 16 years

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(1,000.0)

(500.0)

-

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

BV of Equity corrected for Equtiy Issued / (Repurchased and Dividends)

BV of Capital Corrected for Total Capital Raised / (Repaid)

Page 28: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF is Investing Heavily in Land & Inventory

• SPF has grown inventory by $466mm in the past 7 quarters (45%)

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-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Mar

-01

Sep

-01

Mar

-02

Sep

-02

Mar

-03

Sep

-03

Mar

-04

Sep

-04

Mar

-05

Sep

-05

Mar

-06

Sep

-06

Mar

-07

Sep

-07

Mar

-08

Sep

-08

Mar

-09

Sep

-09

Mar

-10

Sep

-10

Mar

-11

Sep

-11

Sales

Non cash Working Capital Significant recent investment in

inventory

444 408 410 380 416 454 371

587 649 742 802 877

929 972

109

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1Q 2010 2Q 2010 3Q 2010 4Q 2010 1Q 2011 2Q 2011 3Q 2011

Finished Homes and CIP Land Under Development Inv. Not Owned

Page 29: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF - Gross Margins are Falling

• SPF gross margins have recovered more than peers over past 2-3 years

• We expect margins to continue falling due to SPF’s higher capitalized interest

29

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Mar

-06

Jul-

06

No

v-0

6

Mar

-07

Jul-

07

No

v-0

7

Mar

-08

Jul-

08

No

v-0

8

Mar

-09

Jul-

09

No

v-0

9

Mar

-10

Jul-

10

No

v-1

0

Mar

-11

Jul-

11

Capitalized Interest as % of Inventory

SPF Median

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Mar

-06

Sep

-06

Mar

-07

Sep

-07

Mar

-08

Sep

-08

Mar

-09

Sep

-09

Mar

-10

Sep

-10

Mar

-11

Sep

-11

1Q

20

12

E

3Q

20

12

E

1Q

20

13

E

3Q

20

13

E

1Q

20

14

E

3Q

20

14

E

Gross Margins: SPF vs. Peers

SPF SPF Estimate Median

Page 30: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

FHA Loan Limit Changes

• New guidelines on October 1st, 2011

• New ceiling limit will be reduced from $729,750 to $625,500

• Move-up buyers will be more affected by the change – SPF is further affected due to its concentration in high-cost markets

• So how many SPF homes does this affect? – “Approximately 8% of our loans closed in Q3 2011 were above the new FHA or

Conventional loan limits”

– We believe this will increase as the affect of recent purchases flows through

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Page 31: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF – Relative Valuation

31

• Relative Valuation is tough – need to look far out for meaningful comps

• Book Value is tough to judge – have to rely on management mark to market judgment

Relative Valuation Market Cap

Enterprise

Value

Price / Tangible

Book NTM P/E 2012 P/E

EV / 2013 EBIT

Adj

Average Price of

Home

MDC Holdings Inc. 893.0 765.1 1.0x nm nm 6.8x $283,800

NVR Inc. 3,183.0 2,693.9 2.5x 22.4x 17.0x nm $297,100

Toll Brothers Inc. 3,267.5 3,734.3 1.3x 103.4x 60.0x 15.7x $565,000

Ryland Group Inc. 625.3 998.9 1.4x nm 32.3x 12.9x $242,000

KB Home 579.3 1,688.6 1.3x nm nm 31.2x $214,500

Lennar Corp. 3,297.8 6,949.5 1.3x 39.9x 24.1x 16.8x $243,000

PulteGroup, Inc. 2,139.7 4,332.6 1.2x nm 28.8x 10.7x $259,000

Meritage Homes 646.4 906.6 1.3x nm 31.2x 10.1x $254,200

DRHorton 3,646.8 4,324.1 1.4x 25.9x 14.6x nm $212,000

Brookfield Residential Properties Inc. 817.8 2,152.3 0.9x 8.1x 8.1x 9.9x $364,000

Median 1,516.4 2,423.1 1.3x 25.9x 26.5x 11.8x $256,600

Standard Pacific Corp.* 1,083.8 2,040.1 1.2x 27.3x 29.4x 36.1x $511,000

Implied Stock Price using Median $3.54 $2.96 $2.82 $1.03

Average: $2.59 *Tangible BV from analyst estimate

Page 32: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF – Book Value Impairments

32

• We have doubts about SPF’s management marks

• The below shows total impairments as a % of 2006 inventory for the 5 homebuilders with home prices closest to SPF

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Total Impairments as a % of 2006 Inventory

SPF US Equity Average of Direct Comps

Page 33: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF – Intrinsic Valuation

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Statistic Forecast Values

Trials 10,000

Base Case $1.66

Mean $1.54

Median $1.52

Standard Deviation

$1.25

Value of Operating Assets of the firm = $1,532 Year of Housing Recovery

Value of Cash & Non-operating assets= $420 2014 $2.41

Value of Firm = $1,952 2015 $2.12

- Value of Outstanding Debt = $1,377 2016 $1.66

Value of Equity = $575 2017 $1.40

# of Shares (diluted) 346.3 2018 $1.15

Fair Value Per Share 1.66$

Current Price $3.13

Price Appreciation (47.0%)

Page 34: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF – Fair Value

34

$0.0

$1.0

$2.0

$3.0

$4.0

$5.0

$6.0

$7.0

$8.0

Bear: $3.42 (-9%) • US Housing Market recovers by 2014 • 11% run-rate operating margins (historically 7.3%) • Inventory falls to 80% of Revenues (historically 137%)

Base: $1.66 (+47%) • US Housing Market recovers by 2016 • 10% run-rate operating margins (historically 7.3%) • Inventory falls to 84% of Revenues (historically 137%)

Bull: $0.00 (+100%) • US Housing Market recovers in 2018 • 9% run-rate operating margins (historically 7.3%) • Inventory falls to 100% of Revs (historically 137%)

Page 35: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

CONCLUSION

35

Page 36: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Great Operator / Weak US Operator

36

*LTM data for BRP includes Canadian Operations

-8%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Stan

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ROE LTM

Page 37: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Great US Operator / Weak US Operator

37

*LTM data for BRP includes Canadian Operations

-150.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

0.0%

50.0%

100.0%

-150%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 LTM

Return on Equity

Brookfield Residential Properties (US Operations) Standard Pacific Group

SPF Average: (10.6%)

BRP Average: 18.3%

Page 38: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Deep Value / Overvalued

BRP is underpriced by 40%

38

Value of Operating Assets of the firm = 2,440.03

Value of Cash & Non-operating assets= $1 Housing Recovery Year

Value of Firm = 2,441.31 2014 $13.61

- Value of Outstanding Debt = $1,300 2015 $12.25

Value of Equity = 1,141.61 2016 $11.26

# of Shares (diluted) 101.3 2017 $10.73

2018 $12.40

Fair Value Per Share 11.26$

Current Price $8.07

Price Appreciation 39.6%

Value of Operating Assets of the firm = $1,532 Housing Recovery Year

Value of Cash & Non-operating assets= $420 2014 $2.41

Value of Firm = $1,952 2015 $2.12

- Value of Outstanding Debt = $1,377 2016 $1.66

Value of Equity = $575 2017 $1.40

# of Shares (diluted) 346.3 2018 $1.15

Fair Value Per Share 1.66$

Current Price $3.13

Price Appreciation (47.0%)

SPF is overpriced by 47%

Using same macroeconomic assumptions:

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Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Click on a state to change color

Geographical Overlay

• A great geographical hedge on the US housing market

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Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Summary: Long BRP, Short SPF

• Opportunity to hedge out macro US housing risk

• Benefit from investing with a strong operator and shorting a weak operator

• EDGE: BRP is completely uncovered, recently underwent a complex transaction, and has not reported full-year financial data

40

Recommended Trading Strategy: Short 1 share of SPF for every 2 shares long of BRP

Page 41: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

APPENDIX

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Page 42: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

BRP Holders

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Page 43: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF Holders

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Page 44: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF – Capital Allocation Track Record

• ROE was considerably better until 2007… and then the impact of high financial leverage in a cyclical industry became apparent

44

-150.0%

-130.0%

-110.0%

-90.0%

-70.0%

-50.0%

-30.0%

-10.0%

10.0%

30.0%

50.0%

Mar

-96

Sep

-96

Mar

-97

Sep

-97

Mar

-98

Sep

-98

Mar

-99

Sep

-99

Mar

-00

Sep

-00

Mar

-01

Sep

-01

Mar

-02

Sep

-02

Mar

-03

Sep

-03

Mar

-04

Sep

-04

Mar

-05

Sep

-05

Mar

-06

Sep

-06

Mar

-07

Sep

-07

Mar

-08

Sep

-08

Mar

-09

Sep

-09

Mar

-10

Sep

-10

Mar

-11

Sep

-11

ROE COE

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Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF Performance vs. Index

45

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11

SPF: 10-year Stock Price Returns

SPF Industry Average

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Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF – Additional Information

0

50

100

150

200

250

1Q 2010

2Q 2010

3Q 2010

4Q 2010

1Q 2011

2Q 2011

3Q 2011

4Q 2011

1Q 2012

2Q 2012

3Q 2012

4Q 2012

Community Count

46

Lots Owned & Controlled 26,826

Lots Controlled (5,392)

JV Lots (1,295)

Lots Owned 20,139

Owned lots held for sale (3,668)

Owned lots for future development 16,471

Lots held for future development (2,803)

Owned lots - Actively selling or under development 13,668

Years Supply (based on TTM deliveries) 5.8x

Beginning backlog 781

Beginning backlog scheduled to close in quarter 497

Cancellations from beginning backlog (11)

Closings moved to later date (66)

Sold & Closed in Quarter 277

Deliveries 697

Delivery Growth 16%

Community Count 159

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Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF – Financials

47

Year 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Revenues 1,549.2 1,179.5 924.9 871.9 1,088.7 1,148.6 1,211.8 1,333.0 1,732.9

Less: COGS 2,232.5 1,024.6 710.6 695.5 881.5 952.6 986.1 1,070.3 1,366.3

Less: SG&A 318.1 203.0 161.3 153.0 133.3 139.4 147.1 160.5 207.1

EBIT (1,001.4) (48.1) 53.0 23.5 59.5 56.6 78.6 102.2 159.4

Less: Interest Expense 10.4 47.5 41.8 27.9 22.6 31.8 27.9 26.7 22.6

Less: Taxes (5.5) (96.3) (0.6) 0.4 - - - - -

Net Income* ($1,006.3) $0.7 $11.8 ($4.9) $36.9 $24.7 $50.7 $75.5 $136.8

Diluted EPS (9.15) 0.00 0.03 (0.01) 0.11 0.07 0.15 0.22 0.40

Revenue Growth Rate YoY -46.7% -23.9% -21.6% -5.7% 24.9% 5.5% 5.5% 10.0% 30.0%

Gross Margin -45% 12% 22% 19% 18% 16% 18% 19% 20%

Operating Margin -65% -4% 6% 3% 5% 5% 6% 8% 9%

ROE -247% 0% 2% -1% 6% 4% 7% 9% 14%

ROC -31% -2% 2% 1% 3% 4% 5% 8% 11%

Debt Principle Due 50.9 0.9 6.3 29.8 260.4

Non-Cash Working Capital 1,401.7 1,091.3 1,190.1 1,613.1 1,789.1 1,880.0 2,217.6 2,742.7 2,844.0

NOL 1,742.2 1,837.8 1,826.5 1,831.0 1,794.1 1,769.3 1,718.6 1,643.1 1,506.2

# of Shares Outstanding 110.0 252.7 342.1 342.1 342.1 342.1 342.1 342.1 342.1

EBIT (1-t) (620.9) (29.8) 32.9 23.5 56.6 78.6 102.2 159.4 220.0

Reinvestment 934.8 306.9 (101.9) (179.0) (93.2) (339.4) (526.3) (101.9) (340.0)

FCFF 313.9 277.1 (69.0) (155.5) (36.7) (260.8) (424.1) 57.5 (120.1)

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Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF Analyst Consensus - Annual

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Page 49: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF Analyst Consensus - Quarterly

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Page 50: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

SPF Short Interest

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Page 51: Long Brookfield Residential Properites (BRP) Short Sun · • Brookfield Residential Properties is the sixth largest North American residential homebuilder with over 109,000 controlled

Macro Overview

BRP SPF Conclusion Appendix

Revenue Assumptions

• Standard Pacific

• Brookfield Residential

51

Housing Recovery Year CAGR

2014 5.5% 20.0% 30.0% 30.0% 20.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 6.8%

2015 5.5% 10.0% 30.0% 40.0% 25.0% 15.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 8.4%

2016 5.5% 5.5% 10.0% 30.0% 40.0% 25.0% 10.0% 2.0% 2.0% 9.0%

2017 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 10.0% 30.0% 40.0% 25.0% 10.0% 2.0% 10.0%

2018 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 10.0% 30.0% 40.0% 25.0% 10.0% 11.2%

Housing Recovery Year CAGR

2014 10% 20% 20% 13% 8% 2% 2% 2% 2% 6%

2015 3% 10% 20% 20% 13% 8% 2% 2% 2% 6%

2016 3% 3% 10% 20% 20% 13% 8% 2% 2% 6%

2017 3% 3% 3% 10% 20% 20% 13% 8% 2% 6%

2018 3% 3% 3% 3% 10% 20% 20% 13% 8% 7%