This study has been created for Long Beach Island homeowners and buyers as a guide to evaluate the current mar-ket values of single-family Bayfront properties on Long Beach Island. I hope this information is of value to you!

MID 2013 BAYFRONT STUDY

LBI BAYFRONT NEWSLETTER

Features:

Single Family Bayfront Values

Bayfront Single Family Sales

Data

Bayfront Average Sales Price

Chart

Supply vs. Demand Chart

Featured Properties

Flood Insurance Premiums

New Advisory Base Flood Eleva-

tions

Values of Single Family Bayfront Properties

Willy Kahl

Bayfront data varies so much that I have computed a more leveraged curve by calculating the price per

foot of bay frontage for single family bayfront properties. Using this calculation, last year the average bay-

front sale was $1,535,751. This year the average price per linear foot increased to $1,634,258. To see how

much an bayfront property is valued the following numbers should be multiplied by the bayfront footage. The

average sale prices per linear foot each year are as follows: $19,697 in 2004, $26,818 in 2005, $22,318 in

2006, $23,933 in 2007, $22,659 for 2008, $17,578 for 2009, $20,510 for 2010, $22,524 for 2011 and back to

$18,960 for 2012 and $20,176 this first half of 2013. Of course, this average varies from town-to-town, condi-

tion of home, and depth of lot.

To calculate the current value of an average bayfront property by linear feet, multiply the amount of

bayfront feet by $20,176. From 2004 to present, the average linear foot calculates to 81 feet of bay frontage

per sale (maximum of 150’ for peninsulas). So far this year the average price is $20,176 x 49 = 988,624.

The bayfront lot sizes selling this first half of 2013 are much smaller than average. The average lot

size since 2004 had 81 feet of bay frontage. This year we are down to 49 feet of bay frontage. Hence, the

average price without inserting the linear bay frontage is tremendously low with an average of $988,625.

The average price of a bayfront sale in 2012 was $1,744,320, but the lots average 92' of bay frontage.

After calculating Bayfront values since 2004, and oceanfront values since 1992, I have noticed that

LBI Bayfront and Oceanfront Homes appreciate at approximately the same rate.

2010, 2011, and 2012 have proven to have increasing sales activity and a higher supply/demand ratio

than in 2009. Sandy is a temporary setback, yet it still appears the value of bayfront properties may be level-

ing off and may even be slightly appreciating in value. Currently sales are extremely slow, mostly due to the

aftermath of Sandy.

The yearly sale prices vary more than anticipated, since the class of bayfront properties sold differs

every year. In 2005, many bayfront homes that sold were new construction, bringing higher than expected

values. In 2006, the majority of bayfront properties that sold were teardowns, creating a decline in values. In

2009, prices were lower than expected due to many corner lot sales with more than 125’ on the bay and an

older average age of 30 (many teardowns). In both 2010 and 2011 smaller lots with an average of 78.5 feet

on the bayfront were selling which actually brought average values up. This year six of the eight sold were

20 years of age and older and a very small lot average of 49 ft. of bay frontage.

Willy Kahl LBI REALTY GROUP, Broker of Record-Oceanfront Specialist

1919 Long Beach Blvd., Ship Bottom, NJ 08008

Cell (609) 709-1020 willykahl@gmail.com www.LBIsales.com

Office (609) 494-8900 Fax (609) 494-8901

LBI BAYFRONT NEWSLETTER SUMMER 2013 PAGE 2

MID 2013 BAYFRONT SALES from South to North

For properties currently available for sale and for those under contract, please feel free to call me or visit www.lbisales.com. I would be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing computer detailed reports and/or generate automatic updates with your personal criteria!

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st 1/2 2013

BAYFRONT AVERAGE SALE PRICE

SOUTH CENTER NORTH AVG. Price Price/avg.ft.

TOWN ADDRESS DATE LIST SELL SELL

$/ FEET AGE AS-

SESS ASSESS ASSESS SELL$/ #BEDR #BATH

SOUTH SOLD PRICE $ PRICE $ LIST$ WTR BUILD

$ LAND $ TOTAL$ AS-

SESS$

HOLGATE 5006 West Ave. 3/19/13 699,000 630,000 90% 49 84 56,200 580,700 636,900 0.99 3.00 1.00

BEACH HAVEN PARK

20 W. Lillie Ave. 4/9/13 1,199,000

1,099,000 92% 91 23 395,100 987,500 1,382,600 0.79 6.00 3.50

BEACH HAVEN PARK

16 W. Cali-fornia Ave. 6/21/13 1,495,000

1,325,000 89% 28 4 560,600 673,100 1,233,700 1.07 5.00 3.00

MID 2013 AVG 3 SOLD IN SOUTH 1,131,000

1,018,00

0 90% 56 37 337,300 747,100 1,084,400 0.94 4.67 2.50

CENTER

SHIP BOTTOM 2419 Central Ave. 3/27/13 575,000 525,000 91% 25 73 306,100 405,000 711,100 0.74 3.00 2.00

SURF CITY 1415 Barne-gat Ave. 1/16/13 769,900 760,000 99% 21 63 389,300 752,800 1,142,100 0.67 4.00 2.50

MID 2013 AVG 2 SOLD IN CENTER 672,450 642,500 96% 23 68 347,700 578,900 926,600 0.69 3.50 2.25

NORTH

HARVEY CEDARS 9A W. Ber-gen Ave. 3/1/13 1,575,000

1,475,000 94% 52 20 314,100 987,100 1,301,200 1.13 4.00 3.00

HARVEY CEDARS 21 Cedars Ave. 6/21/13 887,500 875,000 99% 50 73 279,400 563,000 842,400 1.04 3.00 1.50

HIGH BAR HAR-BOR

17 Sunset Blvd. 1/18/13 1,395,000

1,220,000 87% 75 0 607,500 492,500 1,100,000 1.11 5.00 3.50

MID 2013 AVG 3 SOLD IN NORTH 1,285,833

1,190,00

0 93% 59 31 400,333 680,867 1,081,200 1.10 4.00 2.67

MID 2013 AVG

LBI 8 SOLD IN

MID

2013 1,074,425 988,625 92% 49 43 363,538 680,213 1,043,750 0.95 4.13 2.58

SUMMER 2013 PAGE 3

Bayfront Sales Volume Drops for the First Time Since 2009

LBI BAYFRONT NEWSLETTER

Get the LBI Bayfront Newsletter before it hits the press! Please e-mail Willy Kahl at willykahl@gmail.com and tell him you prefer these newsletters via e-mail today!

So far there have been only 8 bayfront single family home sales for the first six months of 2013.

There were a total of 21 bayfront single family home sales in 2012, 17 single family bayfront sales in 2011

and 6 total sales in 2009. Currently, there is only one bayfront under contract. In addition, the number of

single family bayfront properties for sale (supply) has increased from 35 to 44.

The good news is that this is much better than the drastic reduction of 50% of sales which the major-

ity of the Island's non waterfront properties have experienced post Sandy.

I calculate our supply to demand curve by dividing the number of bayfront properties sold in the lat-

est half year period by the amount of bayfront properties currently for sale. These are two key factors to

prices stabilizing with values on the rise in the near future. This first half of 2013 our supply vs. demand

ratio is .18. The 2012 year's supply to demand ratio was .25 compared to 2011 ratio of .19. This is slightly

better then 2009, which was one of the worst, with a supply vs. demand ratio of 0.17. I feel this ratio will

gain quickly as time goes on and sales volume becomes back to normal.

Trends on bayfront and oceanfront appreciation and depreciation are similar. I have oceanfront

data as far back as 1992 and bayfront data beginning in 2004. During 2002, supply vs. demand ratio was the

highest in 21 years at 1.09 for oceanfront sales. Our record low of 15 oceanfront homes available on the

market was in 2002. Our high was 101 oceanfront homes available in 1993. There are approximately 1100

oceanfront homes and 1000 bayfront homes on LBI.

Oceanfront sales are showing us a quicker recovery, and bayfront sales should follow soon!

PROPERTIES JUST SOLD

NORTH BEACH

OCEANFRONT

SHIP BOTTOM

OCEANFRONT

BEACH HAVEN GARDENS

BAYFRONT

UNDER CONTRACT

HOLGATE

OCEANFRONT

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1ST '04

2ND '04

1ST '05

2ND '05

1ST '06

2ND '06

1ST '07

2ND '07

1ST '08

2ND '08

1ST '09

2ND '09

1ST '10

2ND '10

1ST '11

2nd '11

1st 12 2nd 12

1st 13

BAYFRONT SUPPLY VS. DEMAND CURVE

SOLD AVAIL.

Featured Properties

LBI BAYFRONT NEWSLETTER SUMMER 2013 PAGE 4

I would be happy to set you up with automatic updates on LBI properties that interest you most. E-mail me at willykahl@gmail.com

Harvey Cedars Bayfront- Fully furnished and tastefully decorated

newer home in desirable on Harvest Cove. Vinyl bulkhead with deep

water slip and dock. Numerous decks including rooftop offer magnifi-

cent views of cove, open bay and even a glimpse of ocean! Home de-

signed by Studio Tagland and features,four bedrooms and three fully

tiled baths (one with Jacuzzi jet tub), stainless appliances, hurricane

windows, beautifully landscaped, trex decks and dock, brick pavers

and cedar shake impression siding. Turn Key $849,000.

The Dunes: Exceptional Lagoonfront Home located in the

prestigious Dunes section of LBI features 61 Feet of Deep Wa-

ter frontage and is 4th from the bay with outstanding views of

the open waters. Recently renovated 4 bedroom 3 full bath

home, with over sized living room, separate den, additional TV

room, dining room, recently updated kitchen and master suite

bath, maintenance free vinyl siding, 25 x 55 new waterfront

deck, Brick pavers, central air and gas heat, survived the 100

year storm high & dry! $949,000.

Ship Bottom

Lagoonfront - Pristine Lagoonfront Reversed living Contem-

pory with Stunning Views! All the latest and greatest, featur-

ing spacious living, kitchen, dining area with gas fireplace,

cathedral ceilings, a top floor bedroom/office, Elevator, gour-

met kitchen, three levels of decks, large deep water dock,

quality built by Jeff Seddon, oversized garages, close to boat

ramp and bridges, tranquil neighborhood, shows like new!

$1,184,900.

Harvey Cedars Lagoonfront - Reversed Living Lagoon

Front with Bay Views, Open Living, Kitchen, Dining

Area,Granite Counters and Stainless Steel Appliances, Cathe-

dral Ceilings, Two levels of Wrap Around Decks, Hard Wood

Floors Throughout, Wood Burning Fireplace, Two Zone Cen-

tral Air / Gas Heat, arge Master Suite w Master Bath, Outside

Shower w Dressing Area, Beautifully Landscaped, Over sized

95 x 100 + Lagoon Front Lot, Nice Dock with Riparian, Easy

to show $929,000.

Flood Insurance Premium Unknowns

LBI BAYFRONT NEWSLETTER SUMMER 2013 PAGE 5

Now that summer has arrived, we can see that sales have tremendously declined since this same time period

last year. The buyers looking for Island property are hesitant to proceed with a purchase and are looking for "good

deals". Realistically, the number of buyers that are seriously looking to purchase has decreased by approximately

50%.

Congress and President Obama signed the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012, and as a re-

sult flood insurance rate subsidies will be phased out over the next five years. Many buyers are waiting for finalized

flood maps to become available as well as additional information regarding future flood insurance rates. Following

are the paragraphs I found most interesting on the website: http://www.fema.gov/flood-insurance-reform-act-2012#1

The Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012 (BW-12) is a law that extends the National Flood

Insurance Program (NFIP) for five years, while requiring significant program reform. The law requires changes to all

major components of the program, including flood insurance, flood hazard mapping, grants, and the management of

floodplains. Many of the changes are designed to make the NFIP more financially stable, and ensure that flood insur-

ance rates more accurately reflect the real risk of flooding.

About 20 percent of all NFIP policies pay subsidized rates. Only a portion of those policies that are currently

paying subsidized premiums will see larger premium increases of 25% annually starting this year, until their premiums

are full-risk premiums. Five percent of policyholders – those with subsidized policies for non-primary residences, busi-

nesses, and severe repetitive loss properties - will see the 25% annual increases immediately. Subsidies will no longer

be offered for policies covering newly purchased properties, lapsed policies, or new policies covering properties for

the first time.

Other actions will trigger immediate rate subsidy elimination. Subsidized premiums for primary residences in

Special Flood Hazard Area’s will be able to keep their subsidized rates unless the property is sold, or the policy lapses,

or property suffers severe damage often, or a new policy is purchased.

The Act phases-out grandfathered rates and moves to current risk-based rates for most properties when the

community adopts a new FIRM.

Extremely low flood rates will continue to exist for properties elevated 4' above the Base Flood Elevation and

fair flood rates will exist for those at the BFE. For more information pertaining to the Biggert-Waters Reform Act

please visit:

http://www.fema.gov/flood-insurance-reform-act-2012#1

Note: All Statistics are deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Data was retrieved from the Jersey Shore Regional Multiple Listing Service

Computer. This letter is not intended to solicit property currently listed. Egon Willy Kahl’s opinion has been stated throughout. This news-

letter is an exclusive publication and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission from Egon Willy Kahl. ©

Release of the New Advisory Base Flood Elevations

FEMA has released their 2nd revised flood maps, where the final mapping is planned for the latter

half of 2014. The maps have been expedited in order to help towns and homeowners utilize the new guide-

lines instead of rebuilding using the guidelines of the old flood maps. The new maps, referred to as the BFE

(Base Flood Elevation) maps are available online. The website provides information to find the actual BFE,

in addition to a wealth of other information.

These maps are not finalized and the 1994 maps are still in use. The new maps include x-zones and

shaded x-zones to meet a standard of old A-zone. Currently, FEMA feels there is no flooding hazard here.

Usually these are oceanblock properties in high areas.

If you bought your property before July 15, 2012, your flood insurance will not rise more than 25%

per year. Primary homes will be 5% increases rather than 25%. Older homes with basements or with low

elevation (4 feet below the base flood) will have extremely high premiums.

To learn of your properties previous flood elevation and to view the new proposed base flood eleva-

tion, type your address in at:

http://www.region2coastal.com/sandy/table

Dependable Bayfront Data Enclosed! For properties currently available for sale and those under contract, please feel free to call or email me. I’ll be happy to e-mail, mail, or fax current Multiple Listing Computer detailed reports!

Willy Kahl’s Bayfront Newsletter Egon Willy Kahl / Broker of Record LBI Realty Group 1919 Long Beach Blvd. Ship Bottom, NJ 08008

Cell (609) 709-1020 EMAIL: WILLYKAHL@GMAIL.COM Office (609) 494-8900 Fax (609) 494-8901

WWW.LBISALES.COM

FIRST CLASS

PRESORT MAIL

U.S. POSTAGE

PAID

TOMS RIVER, NJ

PERMIT NO. 77

FEATURED PROPERTY-LOVELADIES TRACT “SEAWORTHY”

Dependable Bayfront Data Enclosed!

This home on a magnificent full tract of oceanfront in the Estate section of Loveladies resembles a private island compound.

Nantucket-style cedar shake beauty with everything for luxury shore living. Private beach, large deck with pool, two hot tubs,

and stunning ocean and bay views. Outdoor grilling space on deck, three-season screened porch, and outdoor cabana/ bathroom.

Gourmet chefs kitchen with spacious dining area, perfect for all your entertaining needs. House boasts six bedrooms, six full

baths, and two half baths. Master suite on the first floor with Jacuzzi, ocean view, fireplace, wet bar, office, walk-in closet and

full bath. Second floor has four large bedrooms, a second living room with wet bar, deck, and stairway to rooftop with hot tub.

A wonderful family vacation hideaway or fantastic investment with great a rental history. A must see. $8,999,000.