Logistics ProPerty - Microsoft · 2016. 10. 13. · Number of Warehouse Supply, 2011-H1 2016...

COMMERCIAL RESEARCH

Logistics ProPerty Market H1 2016

2 3

COMMERCIAL REsEARChLOgIstICs PROPERty MARkEt h1 2016

Economic OverviewHigHLigHts

Marcus Burtenshawexecutive Director, Head of commercial agency

“ some warehousing locations are clearly faring better than others. new supply needs to be constrained in areas of falling occupancy. Despite this, the underlying fundamentals that originally established each of the major strategic distribution locations are the same. Demand for warehousing space continues to grow, as e-commerce begins to take an even bigger role in the retail landscape in thailand. ”

FIGure 1

Export – Import Volume Index

FIGure 2

Number of Containers Passing Through Laem Chabang Port

FIGure 3

Number of Warehouse Supply, 2011-H1 2016 (square metres)

FIGure 4

Supply Share by Province, as of H1 2016

FIGure 5

Warehouse Demand, 2011 – H1 2016

• Thetotalwarehousesupplywas

at3,732,147squaremetres,repre-

sentinganincreaseof4.1%fromthe

endofthelastperiod,with145,737

squaremetresbeingaddedtothe

market.

• Thewarehouseoccupancyrate

asofH12016wasat78.0%--a

smalljumpof0.5%fromlastyear’s

figure.TheEasternSeaboardsaw

thehighestjumpinoccupancy

whereastheGreaterBangkokregion

(Suvarnabhumi-Bangpakong)enjoyed

thehighestwarehouseoccupancy

rate.

• Onaverage,thewarehouserental

rateslightlyincreasedby0.2%to

156.9bahtpersquaremetreper

month.

Asanexport-orientednationwhere

exportsaccountforupto70%ofthe

country’stotalgrossdomesticproduct

(GDP),Thailandfacedturbulenceinits

exportsfromthecontinuedslowingof

source : MInIstry oF coMMerce anD Bank oF thaIlanD

source : knIGht Frank thaIlanD’s research


source : knIGht Frank thaIlanD’s researchsource : Port authorIty oF thaIlanD

reMark : teu - twenty-Foot equIvalent unIt contaIner

theglobaleconomicclimate.Theexport

landscapeworsenedevenfurtherthis

quarterfromsubduedactivityinother

exportsegmentssuchaspetrochemicals

andautomobiles.

Despitethedisappointingexport

numbers,themovementsatLaem

ChabangPortindicatedthatthedemand

forlogisticserviceswasstillincreasing

atthepaceof3.5%onthehalf-on-half

(HoH)basis.TheHoHoutbounddemand

growthwassignificantlymorethan

theinbounddemandgrowthat4.27%

against2.66%.Thefirsthalfof2016

sawatotalof3,451,730TEUspassing

throughtheport.

Attheendofthefirsthalfof2016,the

totalwarehousesupplywasat3,732,147

squaremetres,representinganincrease

of4.1%fromtheendofthelastperiod

with145,737squaremetresbeingadded

tothemarket.Thelatestpeakinthe

additionofsupplywasstillfrom2014,

whichwaswhenthecountry’slargest

developercompleteditsthreelargest

projects.Sincethen,themarketsaw

relativelyincrementalincreaseinsupply

tocopewithaslowinggrowthindemand.

Future Supply

Fortheremainderof2016alltheway

to2017,approximately300,000square

metresofwarehousesupplyisexpected

toenterthemarket.Upto250,000

squaremetresofthiswouldbein

Samutprakarnprovinceasthelocation

offersahealthylevelofdemandandhigh

levelsofoccupancy.

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 H1 2016

Existing Supply New Supply

1,71

9,18

8

1,71

9,18

8 314,

059

2,56

6,68

1

704,

812

2,03

3,24

8

533,

433

3,27

1,49

3

3,58

6,41

031

4,91

7

145,

737

4 5



COMMERCIAL REsEARChLOgIstICs PROPERty MARkEt h1 2016

Demand

Thetotaloccupiedspacefortheperiod

wasat2,909,594squaremetres,

an8.7%increasefromtheprevious

period;thisamountstoanoccupancy

rateof78.0%.Basedontheoccupancy

trend,bothsupplyandoccupiedspace

hasbeenincreasingatasimilarrate,

keepingoccupancylevelrelatively

stablearound77.5to78.5%.Figure

6showsthenetabsorptionrateof

129,982squaremetresforonlythefirst

halfoftheyear.

Thewarehouseoccupancyrate

asofH12016wasat78.0%--a

smalljumpof0.5%fromlastyear’s

figure.TheEasternSeaboardsaw

thehighestjumpinoccupancy

whereastheGreaterBangkokregion

(Suvarnabhumi-Bangpakong)enjoyed

thehighestwarehouseoccupancyrate.

Pathumthani–Ayutthayastillwitnessed

acontinuedreductioninitsoccupancy

ratesincethe2011floods--andthe

conditionwasfurtherworsenedbythe

additionofnewsupply.





FIGure 6

Occupancy by Key Logistics Locations, 2011 – H1 2016

FIGure 7

Occupancy by Net Warehousing Space Take-ups, 2011 – H1 2016

FIGure 8

Rental Rates by Key Logistics Locations, 2011 – H1 2016

Key Logistics LocationsInthefirsthalfof2016,thenet

absorptionwas129,982squaremetres,

anditremainedconsistentlypositive

forfiveyears,representingthehealthy

andgrowingdemandforlogistics

property.

Rental Rate

Thewarehouserentalrateremained

relativelystagnantinThailand.AsofH1

2016,theaveragewarehouserentalrate

isatTHB156.9persquaremetreper

month.Theregionthatsawthehighest

HoHgrowthwastheEasternSeaboard

withanincreaseof0.5%fromTHB148.9

toTHB149.6persquaremetrepermonth.

Bangkokasaprovincemaintainedits

positionasthemostexpensiveareaalong

withPathumthaniwiththehighestasking

rentofTHB185persquaremetreper

month.Incontrast,KhonKaenhadthe

lowestaskingpriceofTHB110baht

persquaremetre.

Suvarnabhumi-Bangpakong Eastern Seaboard Pathumthani-Ayutthaya Market

2013 85.3% 58.4% 93.4% 78.5%

2014 82.8% 62.5% 87.0% 78.6%

2015 82.5% 62.2% 83.6% 77.5%

H12016 82.6% 67.9% 76.5% 78.0%

%Y-o-Y 0.2% 5.8% -7.1% 0.5%

Suvarnabhumi-Bangpakong Eastern Seaboard Pathumthani-Ayutthaya Market

2013 160.7 153.2 150.1 158.1

2014 160.6 149.6 151.4 156.8

2015 161.2 148.9 151.4 156.6

H12016 160.9 149.6 151.9 156.9

%Y-o-Y -0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

PathumthaniAyutthaya

SuvarnabhumiBangpakong

Chachoengsao

Prachinburi

Nakhonnayok

Pathumthani

Suphanburi

Ayutthaya

Saraburi

Nakhonpathom

SamutprakanSamutsakhon

Samutsongkhram

Bangkok

Chonburi

Rayong

Chanthaburi

EasternSeaboard

LaemChabang

Port

Suvarnabhumi Airport

REcEnt MARkEt-lEAding RESEARch PuBlicAtionS

knight Frank Research, Reports are available at knightFrank.co.th/Research

For the latest news, views and analysison the world of prime property, visit

KnightFrankblog.com/global-briefing

GLOBAL BRIEFING

Thailand Contacts

Phanom KanjanathiemthaoManaging Director+66(0)[email protected]

Chaturawit Wattanaprukexecutive Director+66(0)[email protected]

Surasak Limpa-Arayakulexecutive Director, HeadofValuationandAdvisory+66(0)[email protected]

Roong Sitthisankunchornexecutive Director, HeadofPropertyManagement+66(0)[email protected]

Marcus Burtenshawexecutive Director, Head of commercial agency+66(0)[email protected]

Frank Khanexecutive Director, HeadofResidential+66(0)[email protected]

Risinee SarikaputraDirector, ResearchandConsultancy+66(0)[email protected] Phuket ContactNattha Kahapanaexecutive Director, KnightFrankPhuket+66(0)[email protected]

Important Notice© Knight Frank LLP 2016 – Thisreportispublishedforgeneralinformationonlyandnottoberelieduponinanyway.Althoughhigh standards have been used in the preparationoftheinformation,analysis,viewsandprojectionspresentedinthisreport,noresponsibilityorliabilitywhatsoevercanbeacceptedbyKnightFrankLLPforanylossordamageresultantfromanyuseof,relianceonorreferencetothecontentsofthisdocument.Asageneralreport,thismaterialdoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewofKnightFrankLLPinrelationtoparticularpropertiesor projects.ReproductionofthisreportinwholeorinpartisnotallowedwithoutpriorwrittenapprovalofKnightFrankLLPtotheform andcontentwithinwhichitappears.KnightFrankLLPisalimitedliabilitypartnership registeredinEnglandwithregisterednumberOC305934.Ourregisteredofficeis55BakerStreet,London,W1U8AN,whereyoumaylookatalistofmembers’names.

Thecurrentrentalrateisatthemaximum

of185bahtpersquaremetrepermonth

inBangkokandPathumthani,followed

bythemaximumrentof180bahtper

squaremetrepermonthinSamutprakan,

ChonburiandChachoengsao.Generally,

warehousescommandvariablerents,

dependingonlocation,design,condition

andbuildingage.Themodernlogistics

parksusuallyprovidedocks,raised

floors,floorloadingcapacityofupto

3tonnespersquaremetre,andceiling

heightsof10metres.

Outlook

Thaiexportsareexperiencingadownturn

fromthecontinuedslowingoftheglobal

economy.Somerentalwarehouse

developershavepostponedtheir

expansiononthenewlogisticsparks.

Thenewsupplyenteringthemarketis

expectedtobeslackingoff.However,the

occupancyratetrendstobestableasthe

nettake-upincreasesatthesamelevelof

thenewsupply.

Therentalrateisforecastedtoremain

constantduetothebalancelevelof

newsupplyandnewdemand,putting

pressureonpricecompetitionand

preventingapricerise.Inaddition,

progressoninfrastructure,includingthe

LaemChabangportexpansion,andthe

roadandrailnetworkdevelopment,isstill

thekeypositivefactorthatdrivesprivate

investmentandlogisticsspacedemand.

Contributor to this report:Panon Leelamanit

FIGure 9

Rental Rate Range by Province, H1 2016


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Logistics ProPerty - Microsoft · 2016. 10. 13. · Number of Warehouse Supply, 2011-H1 2016...

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