LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE VISIONING WORKSHOP · Participant comments on the process (South Delta...
Transcript of LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE VISIONING WORKSHOP · Participant comments on the process (South Delta...
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LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE VISIONING
WORKSHOP Session I Visioning Process with Future Scenarios
Stephen R. J. Sheppard
PhD., ASLA.
Collaborative for Advanced
Landscape Planning,
University of British
Columbia, Vancouver
Eastern Regional Climate Change
Preparedness Conference, Baltimore
5 April 2016
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BC Hydro Decision Theatre, CIRS, UBC Visualization credit: A. Pilon
Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning –
an interdisciplinary research group applying visual and spatial
tools to climate change planning and community engagement
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Workshop Overview
I. Local Climate Change Visioning
process – why, when, how
Exercise I: Developing alternative
community scenarios
Break
II. Principles for Visualization
Planning – ‘defensible drama’
Exercise II: Visualization planning
III. Implementing Visioning
Exercise III: Brainstorming how to
mainstream visioning at your office
IV. Training Resources and New
Developments
High-carbon pathway
Low-carbon pathway
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Climate change is becoming visible
Photograph by: Mark van Manen, Vancouver Sun
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What goes around comes around?
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Seeing the world through a holistic
climate change lens
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Local Mitigation
Solutions
Photo credits: S. Sheppard
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Graphs and numbers aren’t enough
Delta: 1.2m of sea level rise projected by 2100 (BC Sea Dike Guidelines, 2011)
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• Better engagement: - making things
tangible
- ‘defensible drama’
- connection to the community
• Better learning: - shared
understanding
• Better foresight: - ‘time travel’ into the
future
We need richer, more compelling tools &
processes for climate change planning
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Goals:
• Build awareness and support decision-
making/policy change/behaviour
change/social mobilization
• Localize, spatialize, visualize
climate change impacts and solutions
(mitigation and adaptation)
• Bridge to more formal
planning/decision-making processes,
add value
I. Local Climate Change
Visioning Process
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Components of Visioning Process
1. Participation
2. Scenario Building
3. Data / Modeling Integration
4. 3D and 4D Visualizations
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Current Mean April 1st Snowline
(759m)
2020s Tier 1 (A2) Mean April 1st Snowline (789m) 2050s Tier 1 (A2) Mean April 1st Snowline (920m) 2090s Tier 1 (A2) Mean April 1st Snowline (1074m)
Northshore Snowpack D. Flanders, CALP; Environment Canada data
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Collaboration with communities, stakeholders,
and local experts
Local Working Group
workshops
Community feedback though
questionnaires, observation, and interviews.
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Visioning Process - workflow
• Iteration of components through phases.
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Average April 1st Snowline Snowpack modelling
Canadian Global Climate Model 2: A2 scenario
Data: Environment Canada; Visualization: D. Flanders, CALP
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Climate change impacts….
identifying chains of effects
Reduced snowpack
Brown lawns
Salmon fry survival
reduced
Reduced
water supply
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MOST POSSIBLE
FLOODED AREAS
SECONDARY
FLOODED AREAS
Vulnerability—easily flooded areas Nanjing Forestry University students Group 6, November 2013
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Visualizing Toronto’s heat-island data and
calculating shade potential from LiDAR LiDAR modelling of shading
(R. Harrap, York University)
Source: Natural Resources Canada
and University of Toronto
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Local Climate Change Scenario Framework:
developing meaningful future stories
MITIGATION
POLICY/
MEASURES
LOCAL
CLIMATE CHANGE
IMPACTS
ADAPTATION
MEASURES
LAND USE/
DEVELOPMENT
TRENDS
HOLISTIC
SCENARIOS/
VISUALISATIONS
LOCAL
CLIMATE CHANGE
CAUSES
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GHG Scenarios
(CO2-equiv, millions of tonnes)( 2 8 - 0 1- 0 7)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
A2 / Fortress
World
B2 / Policy
Reform
B1-450 / Great
Transit ions
GB-QUEST Modelling/ Tellus regional scenarios for
Metro Vancouver (Carmichael)
Identifying, spatializing and visualizing scenarios
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Local food market
Live / work development
60% reduction in home energy consumption
Multifamily suites
Community gardening
Electric commuter
vehicles
Smaller, efficient cars
Increased public transit
Stormwater drainage swale Passive solar
conservatory
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Impacts of Local Climate Change
Visioning Process?
• Increased understanding of local impacts and solutions
• Increased willingness (65-69%) to support local mitigation/adaptation measures
Delta 2007 public workshops
with survey:
Longterm impacts on decision-
making (interviews 4 years later):
• Local government staff
more willing to consider radical solutions to climate change in their community
• Northshore climate hazards study / detailed Delta adaptation scenario assessment
• Widespread use of visual images in the community
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Change in Perceptions
of Urgency:
• Before: 23% of
practitioners felt that the
impacts of climate
change are serious now
• After: 46% felt that way
When impacts of climate change will
become serious (Metro Van Practitioners;
Before)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Never 100
years
from
now
50 years
from
now
20 years
from
now
It is
serious
now
% R
esp
on
den
ts
When impacts of climate change will
become serious (Metro Van Practitioners;
After)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Never 100
years
from
now
50 years
from
now
20 years
from
now
It is
serious
now
% R
esp
on
den
ts
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Participant comments on the process (South Delta community):
• "I learned how climate change could affect my
community in a very graphic way. Numbers may not
stay with me but visuals will”
• "I was somewhat aware of global warming impacts on
the Maldives and polar ice caps - this presentation
placed my own community in that context”
• “Felt empowered”
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Kimberley Visioning Study
Mountain Pine Beetle and
fire in the watershed could
increase debris flows and
accelerate run-off
Climate Change
projected increase of
winter precipitation,
leading to likely
flooding
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Participant rating of
visualization benefits in
Kimberley public meeting
Respondents n=38, valid n=38
Mean: 4.370,
Standard Deviation 1.051
User evaluation
Over 30 adaptation measures adopted in the final Plan
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Kimberley adaptation scenario for creek
widening & flood hazard reduction
First phase of work on the Mark
Creek Flume Flood Management
and Stream Rehabilitation Project
(photo: T. Pollock, 2013).
Credit: E. Pond, S. Muir-Owen, and C. Miller, CALP.
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How to structure community climate
change scenarios?
• Kimberley Adaptation Plan, BC: with lower budgets, simpler
datasets and few projections: 2 composite scenarios (A+M)
• North Vancouver/Delta Visioning Study, BC: with a regional
socio-economic model and climate change projections: 4 alternate
‘worlds’ (A+M)
• Delta Regional Adaptation Collaborative SLR Visioning
Study: with flood modelling and GIS: 3 alternative adaptation
scenarios
• Clyde River Visioning Study, Nunavut: with community
mapping/input, no climate projections: 4 land use planning
additive scenarios (A+M)
• Richmond City Centre Redevelopment Study, BC: with
energy modelling: 4 additive mitigation scenarios
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Adaptation Scenario
Mitigation Scenario
Solar farm
FLOOD ADAPTATION
GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE
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Coastal Neighbourhoods
Holistic Landscape Planning for Climate Change
DNV Presentation
December 15, 2008
Flanders/Pond
Existing Condition 2100: Storm surge (3.48m)
2100: Wall Adaptation 2100: Dike Adaptation 2100: Retrofitting largely complete 2050: Complete resilient neighbourhood
DELTA
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Example: Delta Visioning Case Study (RAC)
Three alternative flood
management scenarios:
Hold the Line Managed Retreat Build Up
How to Adapt?
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Hold the line – 1.2m
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Hold the line – 1.9m
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Build-up scenario – before the flood….
Ladner Dike View
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Build Up Scenario
during flood
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Richmond City Centre Redevelopment: 3 additive energy
scenarios (layers) to reach absolute GHG reductions
Existing Condition OCP Build Out
New Development Solar GeoExchange + Biomass DE
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Q& A (5 mins)