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The mob hasno judgment,no discretion,no direction,

no discrimination, noconsistency.

Cicero 

Madness is the

exception inindividuals but the

rule in groups.Nietzsche 

When 100 cleverheads join a group,one big nincompoop

is the result.Carl Jung 

Decision Making in Groups

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Functional Model

of Decision Making

Discussion

Orientation

Implementation

DecisionReached

DecisionNo DecisionReached

OrientationPlanning theProcess

Defining theProblem

Orientation

– Development of sharedmental model

– Tendency to skip this step 

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 Discussion

RememberingInformation

ExchangingInformation

ProcessingInformation

– Remembering information

• collective memory: Cross-cueing and

transactive memory• weakness in group memory: Importance of 

keeping records

– Exchanging information: Acquiring andsharing data

– Processing information: Collective

review of information 

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 Decision

Decision: Social decision schemes

– Delegation

– Statistical aggregation

– Voting

– Consensus (discussion to unanimity/collectivecommitment)

– Random choice 

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Implementation

– Evaluating the decision

– Adhering to the

decision: Coch and

French (1948)

Vroom’s normative model

of decision making

– Types of procedures:

Autocratic,

consultative, group

– Procedure must fit the

problem to be solved

and the decision to be

made

Implementation

DecisionReached

Evaluatingthe Decision

Adhering tothe Decision

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Which is not to say that groups always make good decisions

Enron

Abilene paradox

Denver Airport

1.7 billion – 300 million

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 What Problems Undermine the Effectiveness of

Decision-Making Groups? 

Group discussion pitfalls

– Information processing limitations

– Poor communication skills– Decisional avoidance (procrastination,

bolstering, satisficing)

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 What Problems Undermine the Effectiveness ofDecision-Making Groups?

Shared information bias 

– Oversampling shared information leads to poorer

decisions when a hidden profile would be revealed by

considering the unshared information more closely.– Factors that increase (leadership style) and decrease

(using a GDSS) the bias

Judgment errors and heuristic biases 

– Sins of omission and commission– Sins of imprecision: Heuristics

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Polarization and Risk

Group polarization: A shift in the directionof greater extremity in individuals'

responses

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 Why Do Groups Often Make Riskier Decisionsthan Individuals?

– Social comparison theory

– Persuasive-arguments theory

– “Risk-supported wins” social decisionscheme

– Diffusion of responsibility

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Groupthink

Janis’s theory of 

groupthink

– Example:Kennedy’s

advisory group

planning the

Bay of Pigs“covert op”

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Symptoms of Groupthink

I. Overestimation of the group 

1. illusion of invulnerability

2. illusion of morality

II.  Close-mindedness3. rationalizations

4. stereotypes about the outgroup

III.  Pressures toward uniformity

5. self-censorship6. the illusion of unanimity

7. direct pressure on dissenters

8. self-appointed mindguards

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 GR  O U 

P T H I  N K 

R E  S  U L T  S 

 /   O U T  C  OME  S 

………….……. C A  U 

 S E  S 

…………

……….… 

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How Can Groupthink Be Prevented?

Limiting premature seeking of concurrence:

• Open style of leadership (not directive)

• Devil’s advocate

• Subgroup discussions

Correcting misperceptions and biases:

• Bring in outside experts

Using effective decision-making techniques:• Robert’s Rules