Lithium-Ion Batteries The Incumbent Technology...Source: Bloomberg NEF. Note: Excludes pumped hydro....
Transcript of Lithium-Ion Batteries The Incumbent Technology...Source: Bloomberg NEF. Note: Excludes pumped hydro....
Lithium-Ion Batteries: The Incumbent TechnologyPlatform for Coal Regions in Transition
James Frith
April 08, 2019
2 @JamesTFrith
Source: BloombergNEF
Lithium-ion battery prices have fallen 85% since 2010
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Lithium-ion battery pack price (real 2018 $/kWh)
E-bus
Stationarystorage
PassengerEV
Observedprices
18%learningrate
2024 implied price $94/kWh 2030
implied price $62/kWh
Cummulative demand for lithium-ion batteries (GWh)
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Source: BloombergNEF, Avicenne
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Consumerelectronics
E-buses
PassengerEVs
This is largely thanks to the EV industry
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Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note * Includes a 10% EPC margin. Developer overheads set at 5% of total system costs, and developer margin set at 10%.
System level prices continue to fall
286 204 189 173 158 142 127 111 96 90 84 79 74 70
20
18 17 17 16 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 10 10
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37 36 36 35 34 32 30 30 28 27 26 26 25
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15 15 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8
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40 39 38 37 36 34 33 32 30 29 28 28 27
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18 18 17 17 17
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15 14
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357 338 319 299
278 255
234 214 203 193 184 176 170
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Real 2018 $/kWh
Transformer
Developer margin
Grid connection
Developeroverheads
EPC*
EnergyManagementSystemBalance of system
20MW/80MWh system
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Source: Bloomberg NEF. Note: Excludes pumped hydro. If multiple technologies are selected, the capacity is divided equally amongst them.
This has led to Lithium-ion dominating the storage market (on a power basis)
49%61%
69% 68%
87%94%
85%
22%9%
25%
3%
3%
8%6%
18%
7%
6%
5%19% 18%
3% 6% 3% 5%12%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Other /unknownFlywheels
Flow batteries
SodiumsulphurLead-based
Lithium-ion
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Source: Bloomberg NEF. Note: Excludes pumped hydro. If multiple technologies are selected, the capacity is divided equally amongst them.
But other technologies can be better on an energy basis
33% 37% 40% 34%
57%
74%
46%
15% 5%
14%
2%
1%
6%4%
9%
4%
4% 3%
0%0%
46% 51%45%
52%
37%26%
52%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Other /unknownFlywheels
Flow batteries
SodiumsulphurLead-based
Lithium-ion
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Fossil Fuel generator providing frequency response
Why use storage? (and particularly lithium-ion)
Source: Pixelartmaker.com
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Fossil Fuel generator providing frequency response
Battery storage providing frequency response
Generating assets aren’t good for quick response
Source: Pixelartmaker.com Source: Groundreport.com
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Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Benchmark Minerals, Antaike Note: prices correct as of January 28, 2018
Lithium hydroxide price - Asia Cobalt spot price - Shanghai
Lithium-ion batteries biggest weakness is commodity prices
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Benchmark Minerals, Antaike Note: prices correct as of January 28, 2018
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$ / metric ton
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Source: Bloomberg NEF Note: Excludes pumped hydro. If multiple applications are selected, the capacity is divided equally amongst them.
Cobalt can be avoided
23%30% 30% 36% 36% 33% 34%
73%
35%
4%
19%
15%
14%12% 17% 17%
40%40% 34% 29%
16% 19%
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
NMC (811)
NMC (622)
NMC (442)
NMC (111)
LFP
NCA
LMO
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Source: Bloomberg NEF Note: Excludes pumped hydro. If multiple applications are selected, the capacity is divided equally amongst them.
Energy shifting dominates the market
22% 22%15%
26%35% 34%
20%
9%2%
1%
0%
5% 9%
6%
36%
29%33%
22%
23% 19%
26%
6%
4%6%
16%8% 15% 27%
16%
25%28%
21%21% 19%
13%9% 13% 15%
7% 3% 2% 3%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Other
Residential
Commercial
Distribution
Transmission
Energy Shifting
PeakingcapacityAncillaryservices
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Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceSource: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Cumulative storage deployments by application, based on power output
Cumulative storage deployments by application, based on energy capacity
Energy shifting will create new opportunities for storage
Other
EV charging
Behind-the-meter:C&I demand chargesBehind-the-meter:commercialBehind-the-meter:residentialDistribution
Transmission
Energy shifting
Peaking capacity
Ancillary services0
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Source: Bloomberg NEF
There are somethings lithium-ion probably wont be able to do
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Generation (GW)
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Charging
Discharging
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Germany low renewable generation week, 2040
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Source: Bloomberg NEF
Particularly long duration energy shifting
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Curtailment
Charging
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New storage technologies, with a long storage duration, are needed for shifting loads by weeks or months
12hrs
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