Linac4 Risk Assessment Criteria and Methodology. Linac4 General Meeting – C. Rossi 11.06.2009...

Linac4 Risk Assessment

Criteria and Methodology

Linac4 General Meeting – C. Rossi 11.06.2009

Definitions

• A risk is any event that could produce a change in the project management plan:

• A threat has negative impact• An opportunity has positive impact

• A risk is defined by its probability to occur and by its impact on project objectives.

• Project objectives are:Cost, Time, Scope and Quality

• Scope Availability of the injector• Quality Beam Brightness for LHC


Objective

• Decide actions and develop strategies to minimize threats (and enhance opportunities).

• Define clear responsibilities for each risk response, which should be accepted by all parties involved.

• Link the risk management activity to all other management processes.


ToolsThe Risk Management Plan:Provides definitions for roles & responsibilities, for probability and impact of a risk, defines criteria for risk evaluation and possible responses. It defines the processes involved in the risk management activity.

The Risk Response Plan

The Risk Register:Lists the prioritized risks by their “scores”, highlights the risk owners, summarizes risk responses and contingency plans.

OUTPUT

Risk Monitoring and Control


The Risk Management Plan methodology

The risk owner for the RMP is the Linac4 project management, which supervises the implementation of the Risk Response Plan.Work package holders have already minimized risks within their work packages.

First risk identification is performed in a brainstorming session of the Core Team.

The risk analysis will be initially qualitative.Quantitative risk analysis is left to cases with high impact if more information is required to prioritize the response.

The draft of the Risk Register will be submitted to work package holders for feedback.

The Risk Response Plan is revised at least once per year and after that significant project milestones are obtained.


The Risk Management Plan criteria

The project objectives have been benchmarked as follows:

• COST: project overall cost estimate (baseline 2009)

• TIME: project total duration (baseline 2009)

• SCOPE: injector availability (reference to Linac2)

• QUALITY: beam brightness for LHC as compared to Linac2



Criteria for impact on project objectives:• Impact on Cost: Ic = cost / overall cost• Impact on Time: It = time / total duration• Impact on Scope: Is = Injector Beam uptime after 1 year of operation• Impact on Quality: Iq = enhancing factor to L2 beam brightness.Impact on project objectives:

IMPACT / Project objectives

Cost(%)

Time(yr)

Scope(%)

Quality(L2)

CATASTROPHIC 30 < Ic 2 ≤ It Is< 70 Iq< 0.5

CRITICAL 20 < Ic < 30 It = 1 70 < Is< 90 0.5 < Iq < 1

MARGINAL 5 < Ic < 20 It = 0.3 90 < Is< 98 1 < Iq< 1.5

NEGLIGIBLE Ic < 5 It < 0.1 98 ≤ Is 1.5 < Iq< 2



The probability for a risk to occur is summarized by four levels:

• HIGH: 50% < P. Several evidences already present.

• MEDIUM: 20% < P < 50%. A few evidences already present.

• LOW: 5% < P < 20%. One simple indication exists.

• VERY LOW: P < 5%. No indications, but still some probability.

The “score” associated to a risk is given by:

S = P x Impact (Ic, It, Is, Iq)


The Probability and Impact Matrix

CATASTROPHIC CRITICAL MARGINAL NEGLIGIBLE

HIGH MAX MAX IMPORTANT MINOR

MEDIUM MAX IMPORTANT MINOR MIN

LOW IMPORTANT MINOR MINOR MIN

VERY LOW MINOR MIN MIN MIN

Numerical values could be associated to Probability and Impact:• PROBABILITY: HIGH = 4, MEDIUM = 3, LOW = 2, VERY LOW = 1

• IMPACT: CATASTROPHIC = 5, CRITICAL = 3, MARGINAL = 2, NEGLIGIBLE = 1


The Risk Register

RISKREGISTER

Risk ID Risk Label Cat. P Ic It Is Iq S Current response Management decision S’

BE-RF-01 Failure of LEP klystrons to provide 1.3 MW P 3 3 2 2 5 15Acceptance with contingency plan

Include additional klystrons as an option in the contract with the klystron supplier

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LINAC4 PROJECT

Excel file summarizing information on identified risks:

It may contain also:• Indication of common risk causes;• Triggers for contingency plans;• Responsibilities for risk responses.


The Risk Response PlanThe activity of Risk Response Planning concerns:• planning interventions to reduce the risk to a project• developing and enlisting a series of options in hopes of reducing any

threats that may exist to the predefined project objectives.

Possible responses to a risk:• AVOIDANCE: change the project plan to avoid the threat or reduce the scope of the

project• ACCEPTANCE:

• Active Acceptance: a contingency plan is developed should the risk occur• Passive Acceptance: no action required

• MITIGATION: reduce the consequences of a threat. Reduce the probability of the event• TRANSFER: transfer the risk to a third party that has more suitable means to face it.


Risk Monitoring and ControlThe activity of Risk Monitoring and Control concerns:• Updating the Risk Register;• Reviewing the risk responses and evaluating their effectiveness;• Integrating the risk management activities into the management process.

RiskMonitoring

&Control

Qualitative / Quantitative

Risk Analysis

Risk Register

RiskIdentification

RiskResponsePlanning

Linac4 Risk Assessment Criteria and Methodology. Linac4 General Meeting – C. Rossi 11.06.2009...

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