Limits to Growth and Public Health
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CRICOS #00212K ISEE/ISES/ISIAQ, Basel, Switzerland, August 21, 2013 Professor Colin Butler (Australian Research Council Future Fellow) Limits to growth and environmental epidemiology: a conceptual framework
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Transcript of Limits to Growth and Public Health
CRICOS #00212K
ISEE/ISES/ISIAQ, Basel, Switzerland, August 21, 2013
Professor Colin Butler(Australian Research Council Future Fellow)
Limits to growth and environmental epidemiology: a conceptual framework
CRICOS #00212K
Prof Jouni Jaakkola: Sustainable housing, Limits to Growth and climate change Dr Atanu Sarkar: Agricultural practices, food production, food security and governance in South AsiaProf Tee L. Guidotti: Health and sustainability: a taxonomy of relationshipsDr Mary Jo Flavel: Ecosystems, biodiversity, and Limits to GrowthProf Colin Soskolne: Scientific factors that obscure and obstruct our understanding of the Limits to Growth 2
CRICOS #00212K
A/Prof Colin D Butler ([email protected]) National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health Australian National
University, Australia
Three wise epidemiologists Nikko Toshogu Shinto Shrine, Tokyo.
Photo: Rangaku 1976, 2008
Limits to growth and public health: where is environmental epidemiology?
APOLOGIES: future generations
23rd ISEE meeting, Barcelona,
September, 2011
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CRICOS #00212K
King (1990) Health is a sustainable state. Lancet
Butler (2008) Sustainable health for all by the year 2100? Int J Pub Hlth
Hanlon & Carlisle (2008) Do we face a third revolution in human history? If so, how will public health respond? J Pub Hlth
McMichael & Butler (2011) Promoting global population health while constraining the environmental footprint. Ann Rev Publ Hlth
Brijnath, McMichael & Butler (2012) Rio+20: Don’t forget health in sustainability talks. Nature
Butler and Weinstein (2013) The future of global health. Reasons for alarm and a call for action. World Med J
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“Peak health”
President Royal Society 2005-2010
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Peak health?
CRICOS #00212K
Kubiszewski, Costanza et al, 2013
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Global GPI/capita & GDP/capita
Genuine Progress
GDP
CRICOS #00212K 1998 2000 2004 2008 2011
Adapted from Murray & King, Nature. 2012; 481: 433-5.
Apparent production cap
2005: Plateau Oil
Production (million barrels/day)
Oil price (US$ per barrel)
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Limits to growth
3rd carbon age? Risk to water, catastrophic climate change
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Green Revolution: 3 main grains
CRICOS #00212K
“Yield plateaus are evident: wheat, maize in China perhaps irrigated maize in the USA., Korea and China for rice” (Ken Cassman)
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Limits to growth
CRICOS #00212K
(nominal prices)
10Limits to growth
CRICOS #00212K
From forecasting and models (1970s) to abundant data and evidence .. not sufficiently acted on by policy makers, under-appreciated within academia
1.Persistently high energy price
2.Stagnant economic “growth”
3.Flattened genuine progress
4.Return of famines
5.Increasing civil wars
6.Numerous interactions: systemic nature
7.“Health for all” a dream
8.Retreat of civilization and strengthening “fortress world”
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CRICOS #00212K
before you slash your wrists
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CRICOS #00212K
ÉdouardLe Roy
Paul Crutzen
noösphere(planetary thinking, sharing)
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