Lifting the lid on the Global Market Forecast...The Global Market Forecast in numbers 3 Source: OAG,...
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Bob Lange SVP Business Analysis and Market Forecast Lifting the lid on the Global Market Forecast Cities, Airports & Aircraft
Transcript of Lifting the lid on the Global Market Forecast...The Global Market Forecast in numbers 3 Source: OAG,...
Bob Lange
SVP Business Analysis and Market Forecast
Lifting the lid
on the
Global Market ForecastCities, Airports & Aircraft
Network forecastWhere will passengers fly?
The Global Market Forecast answers three questions
2 Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Traffic forecastHow many passengers will fly?
World fleets forecastHow will passengers fly?
The Global Market Forecast in numbers
3 Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019
Major traffic flows AirlinesCity pairs(Origin - Destination)
AirportsCities
~800~3,300~3,200 ~600,000~100
Traffic forecast: we consider many variables
4 Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Liberalisation
Tourism trends
Geopolitics
Airlines Business models & strategy
Jet fuel price
Air fares
By 2038, 5.8 billion people will live in cities or other urban centres
5
Population (billion)
Source: UN Population, Airbus GMF 19
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038
Urban population
Rural population
Urban population as % of total
46%
Forecast
55%
64%
2.7 billion
5.8 billion
Additional people per year
(million)
76
1,5
4.2 billion
The “Middle Class” will grow fastest in the emerging countries
6
Middle Class (millions) &
Percentage of World population
Note: Middle-class: Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2015 prices
Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF 2019
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2008 2018 2028 2038
CIS
North America
Middle East
Europe
Latin America
Africa
Asia-Pacific
Forecast 5,940
(66%)5,060
(60%)
3,950
(52%)
2,860
(42%)
x1.6
vs. 2018
x2.3
x1.4
x1.0
x1.3 x1.0 x1.3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Advanced Economies
Developing Economies
Emerging Economies
0.01
0.1
1
10
In 2018, ~0.35 trips per capita in Emerging countries
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2018 trips per capita
Source: Sabre, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019
Equivalent amount of passengers flying from/to/within the country
Bubble size proportional
to population
2018 real GDP per capita(2015 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
2018
China, 2018
0.4 trips per capita
India, 2018
0.1 trips per capita
United States, 2018
2.0 trips per capita
Advanced Economies
Developing Economies
Emerging Economies
0.01
0.1
1
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
…and in 2038, ~0.95 trips per capita in Emerging countries
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2038 trips per capita
Source: Sabre, IHS Markit, Airbus GMF 2019
Equivalent amount of passengers flying from/to/within the country
Bubble size proportional
to population
2038 real GDP per capita(2015 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
2038
United States, 2038
2.8 trips per capita
India, 2038
0.5 trips per capita
China, 2038
1.4 trips per capita
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
9
World annual traffic (RPK billion) with main growing flows
Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Traffic is forecast to grow at 4.3% p.a.
8.7
trillion
2018 2038
RPK (billions)
20.3
trillion
50% growth
Networks are growing
10 Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019
Growing networks: most active new route creation 2017-2018
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Net city-pairs
• Intra PRC
• Africa – Europe
• Transatlantic
• Short haul within Europe
• Long haul LCC
20
22
27
29
29
34
35
45
54
55
66
91
118
131
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
North Africa
Indian Subcontinent
Canada
Central America
Pacific
Central Europe
USA
South America
Middle East
PRC
CIS
Asia
Europe
Sub Sahara
~800 airlines in our sample
11 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats)
Source: Airbus 2019
No. of airlines in GMF by region
Installed seats in service in 2018
27%
12%
26%
35%
Full Service Carrier
Low Cost Carrier
Regional/Commuter
Other
Nb. of airlines in GMF in 2018
67%
25%
4%4% Full Service Carrier
Low Cost Carrier
Regional/Commuter
Other
Business models are evolving…
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Share of each business model on Domestic and Intra-regional flights
Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019, Business models defined based on 2018 operations
Asia/Pacific North America Europe Latin America Middle East CIS Africa
Other
Regional/Commuter
Full Service Carrier
Low Cost Carrier
951 764 222 85Million
seats
offered
57 68970
2008
Business models are evolving…
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Share of each business model on Domestic and Intra-regional flights
Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019, Business models defined based on 2018 operations
Asia/Pacific North America Europe Latin America Middle East CIS Africa
Other
Regional/Commuter
Full Service Carrier
Low Cost Carrier
1,983 953 342 204Million
seats
offered
112 971,056
2018
14 Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2019
In today’s operations, aircraft are used flexibly in capacity and range
Seats
Shades of blue are proportional to
the number of aircraft in service
2018 operations
500
400
300
250
210
150
100
2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 80001000
1000
100
10
0
Number of aircraft
Distance (nm)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 450+
1998-2007
1999-2008
2000-2009
2001-2010
2002-2011
2003-2012
2004-2013
2005-2014
2006-2015
2007-2016
2008-2017
2009-2018
Increasing deliveries in 175-seat and now 210-seat neutral categories
Source: Cirium, Airbus GMF 2019
Rolling past 10-year deliveries overlaid on neutral seating categories
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Past deliveries
10-year period
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 450+
Other
Full Service Carriers
Regional/Commuter
Low Cost Carriers
Strongest category also has highest proportion of Low Cost Carriers
Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats)
Source: Cirium, Airbus GMF 2019
2009-2018 deliveries overlaid on neutral seating categories
Neutral seating
categories
Airline business models
Deliveries between
2009-2018
16
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 ≥450
Forecast new deliveries: move upwards to 210-seat neutral category
17 Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats) | Rounded figures to nearest 5
Source: Airbus GMF 2019
Forecast deliveries 2019-2038
Neutral seating
categories
1,550
2,375
4,790
11,370
10,395
2,7002,515
1,450
730 485
1,270
1,540
2,700
3,240
6,380
7,540
16,540
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
Africa
CIS
Latin America
Middle East
North America
Europe
Asia/Pacific
Regional distribution of 20-year new deliveries
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Notes: Passenger aircraft (≥100seats), Freight (>10t) | Figures rounded to nearest 10
Source: Airbus 2019
20-year new deliveries
Asia-Pacific airlines:
42% of new aircraft demand
Europe & North America airlines:
35% of new aircraft demand
Middle-East, Latin America, CIS
& Africa airlines:
22% of new aircraft demand
Global demand for 39,210 new passenger & freighter aircraft
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Source: Airbus GMF 2019 | Figures rounded to nearest 10
Note: demand for all commercial aircraft above 100 seats & freighters above 10t
North America
6,380 (17%)
Latin
America
2,700 (7%)
Europe & CIS
9,080 (23%)
Africa
1,270 (3%)
Middle-East
3,240 (8%)
Asia/Pacific
16,540 (42%)
Airbus
Backlog: 18%
Airbus
Backlog: 11% Airbus
Backlog: 1%
Airbus
Backlog: 36%
Airbus
Backlog: 11%
Airbus
Backlog: 23%
SMALL
MEDIUM
LARGE
Excludes undisclosed, lessor backlog, military derivatives & ACJ
